trying to do a little bit of a general read through.
First thing that pops out is the height of the scolapasta wagon, when Joseph put them at L-1:
scolapasta (6): Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas, Joseph2302
A Drowned Kernel (2): SpaceAnemone, yuma
Joseph2302 (1): scolapasta
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
Not Voting (2): WestCoastDidds, DatSwan
Two things I guess:
1) I believe that the reason he tried to set this up was to get town to make a mistake with a quick hammer. The day was dragging on, moving slowly, and just kind of the only situation in which town may actually consider doing it. Not the best theory, but IDK how many other reasons there could be.
2) I think the reason they jumped off all of sudden was because in fact THEY were the one that made a mistake. I think they tried to do a thing and then realized that the scolapasta wagon was saturated with skum. Whether it was just him and another or all three of them, idk.
So point 1 would have us believe that there were enough town off wagon to give a high enough possibility to possibly find a quick hammer from town, and point 2 would suggest, in agreement with point 1, that there was at least some other skum on that wagon.
TLDR;
I think there is essentially a 100% chance of finding skum in [Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas].
Removing ADK for now, for obv reasons, leaves the pool of [Dylan32, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas].
I know that sounds kind of "stretch-y", but there are only so many options. Either...
a) All three skum was on the scola wagon
b) Joseph +1 on scola, and other off wagon
c) Joseph was only skum on scola wagon
I think "c" is unlikely.
The final wagon was:
Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302
So there were two players in the grouping of [Dylan, LL, MailMi, Calamitas] that were both on scola and did not want to go to Joseph at the end. Those players were - [Dylan, MailMi]. LL got on pretty damn early, so I mean... that looks decent. Calam was the person on the scola wagon right before Joseph put it at L1, and then had that "convenient placement" in the Joseph wagon... so maybe that could be a bus, but I think MailMi/Dylan has a much stronger chance at this point.
I thought MailMi was on the radar yesterday, so for now gonna go with
Vote: Mail-Mi