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[Calamitas]

if anyone's getting to be a pseudo-IC, it should be ADK with the uncontested claimed UB status. Though I need to go back and check to what extent the scumteam could know if we're in a game situation where there isn't a UB at all

All games include a Universal Back-Up.

From the setup

Single-V rolls lead to Restless Spirits being converted to UB here. But I don't see why Space thinks the details are relevant here, UB is by far and large the most likely role and claiming VT would have done not much good for dying Joseph.

PPE: 2

[SpaceAnemone]

I am actually confused about this. First of all, why the heck would ADK claim as UB here. Governors are not really likely and its not like it would even be a certainty whether a hypothetical governor would even save Joseph here (UB is most convenient claim, would be NKed afterwards if actual UB)

ADK did say it was a knee-jerk reaction, so "why the heck" seems a bit harsh maybe. Though I also agree that Joseph shouldn't have been a good target for using any powers on.

I thought that ADK is WIFOM'ing UB/Virgin/Commuter or the like, that explains the non-NK. So we need to answer whether we should treat ADKs thing as an actual UB claim. As of now, I don't treat it as such; what do you think? Even without taking the claim into account, I strongly townread ADK (did not re-read) for his very hard push on Joseph.

I think there's definitely some possibility they were trying to confuse scum while having another role.
Note: ADK uses they/them pronouns too :-)

Also, I am confused by the choice of Scola as target.

Yeah, though losing a VT rather than a PR is a good outcome, so whatever Scola did was working well! I agree it's a wacky choice for scum, unless Scola breadcrumbed something, or at least scum thought he did?

[Calamitas]

Call me the shepherd, cuz I've apparently got a lot of sheep haha.

I voted scola for seeming to use a joke RVS vote to create an actual wagon on Joseph as the 3rd vote on the wagon. It was a real vote since my LL vote was clearly RVS and that was the first scummy thing I'd noticed, but I did not expect that to kick off a wagon with that little substance. I still stand by it being a slightly scummy post, so I'm leaving my vote for now, that was just unexpected to come back and see the wagon that blew up. I agree with Didds there was probably scum somewhere behind me on the wagon.

I don't think I like this

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also, fantastic Lynch everyone. I take zero credit for the actual Lynch, but will gladly assume my position as pseudo-IC with the hammer

Yeah, no

[A Drowned Kernel]

I am actually confused about this. First of all, why the heck would ADK claim as UB here. Governors are not really likely and its not like it would even be a certainty whether a hypothetical governor would even save Joseph here (UB is most convenient claim, would be NKed afterwards if actual UB)

I thought that ADK is WIFOM'ing UB/Virgin/Commuter or the like, that explains the non-NK. So we need to answer whether we should treat ADKs thing as an actual UB claim. As of now, I don't treat it as such; what do you think? Even without taking the claim into account, I strongly townread ADK (did not re-read) for his very hard push on Joseph.

Also, I am confused by the choice of Scola as target.

Governor isn't that unlikely (I will admit I haven't crunched any of the actual numbers) and I'm assuming Joseph's claim was an attempt to be save and/or out the actual UB. Other than the IC status, the role isn't all that powerful, and Joseph being saved would be super crappy because we would 1) lose a day, 2) have to spend D2 in a 1v1, and 3) people might use their N1 actions suboptimally with the misinformation. I made the decision to claim

[A Drowned Kernel]

if anyone's getting to be a pseudo-IC, it should be ADK with the uncontested claimed UB status. Though I need to go back and check to what extent the scumteam could know if we're in a game situation where there isn't a UB at all

All games include a Universal Back-Up.

From the setup

Yes, but also from the setup, games with a single V roll, or a single W roll that converst to a V, turn our guaranteed UB into a restless spirit. Except if we have a single V and also a single W roll that converts to a V, in which case we get both a UB and a RS. It makes me happy that faust's setup text covers that odd little corner case.

Anyway, the actual chance of not having a UB in the game is higher than you might think.

Again, I haven't crunched the actual numbers but from what I remember from asher9++ which has a similar mechanic, it's low enough that fakeclaiming it in order to counterclaim my partner would be monumentally stupid

[Calamitas]

Okay, finished re-reading. First round of thoughts on Space:

First off, their claimed not-game-related preference for lynching Joseph is genuine and their posts sound fully honest to me. While I wouldn't put it past them to fake that as scum, this makes me townread them.

Why no number for voting Joseph?

I'm sorry, Joseph is not a menu option. He is acting like himself, which is decidedly null. Please press 4 to listen to the menu again, or state which option you would like.

I agree that Joseph's behaviour is very Joseph-like, rather than being necessarily role-indicative. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad lynch for D1.

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...

Can you work out the probabilities and expected number of each PR in the game?

Also, the question by Joseph sounds genuinely curious and when I first read this I definitely felt like Space was genuinely in "stats-sharing and math is exciting" mode. I am highly confident Space would have shared their stats in N0 with the scumteam.

Some thoughts I am having
1) My gut feeling is that this conversation wouldn't have taken place that way if Joseph had already gotten a full list of probabilites in N0. First, because

a) I would feel super scary to ask about it in that situation and the tone doesn't sound overthinking, Space sounds natural as well

b) From the point of a stats person, "Expected number of PRs" is a weird thing to ask for and not the reason why we are doing stats. This sounds much like him not having the stats and not knowing what exactly is interesting

Overall, townreading Space after this.

PPE: Some

[A Drowned Kernel]

I didn't think that I was going to be alive today but for now I'm feeling vote: mail-mi. Was vocally against the joseph wagon and in  a way that makes it impossible to read what his actual intentions were

[2.71828.....]

Call me the shepherd, cuz I've apparently got a lot of sheep haha.

I voted scola for seeming to use a joke RVS vote to create an actual wagon on Joseph as the 3rd vote on the wagon. It was a real vote since my LL vote was clearly RVS and that was the first scummy thing I'd noticed, but I did not expect that to kick off a wagon with that little substance. I still stand by it being a slightly scummy post, so I'm leaving my vote for now, that was just unexpected to come back and see the wagon that blew up. I agree with Didds there was probably scum somewhere behind me on the wagon.

I don't think I like this

This prompted me to reread dylan, and yeah.  scummy

vote: Dylan

Calamitas, you said you just reread, what are your thoughts on Dylan?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Call me the shepherd, cuz I've apparently got a lot of sheep haha.

I voted scola for seeming to use a joke RVS vote to create an actual wagon on Joseph as the 3rd vote on the wagon. It was a real vote since my LL vote was clearly RVS and that was the first scummy thing I'd noticed, but I did not expect that to kick off a wagon with that little substance. I still stand by it being a slightly scummy post, so I'm leaving my vote for now, that was just unexpected to come back and see the wagon that blew up. I agree with Didds there was probably scum somewhere behind me on the wagon.

I don't think I like this

This prompted me to reread dylan, and yeah.  scummy

vote: Dylan

Calamitas, you said you just reread, what are your thoughts on Dylan?

I have a lingering townread on dylan but he was off-wagon. Probably merits a reread

[Calamitas]

I am actually confused about this. First of all, why the heck would ADK claim as UB here. Governors are not really likely and its not like it would even be a certainty whether a hypothetical governor would even save Joseph here (UB is most convenient claim, would be NKed afterwards if actual UB)

I thought that ADK is WIFOM'ing UB/Virgin/Commuter or the like, that explains the non-NK. So we need to answer whether we should treat ADKs thing as an actual UB claim. As of now, I don't treat it as such; what do you think? Even without taking the claim into account, I strongly townread ADK (did not re-read) for his very hard push on Joseph.

Also, I am confused by the choice of Scola as target.

Governor isn't that unlikely (I will admit I haven't crunched any of the actual numbers) and I'm assuming Joseph's claim was an attempt to be save and/or out the actual UB. Other than the IC status, the role isn't all that powerful, and Joseph being saved would be super crappy because we would 1) lose a day, 2) have to spend D2 in a 1v1, and 3) people might use their N1 actions suboptimally with the misinformation. I made the decision to claim

.
Fair enough, sounds sensible (governor likelihood is btw 20% conditioning on a UB if my code is correct); especially after weighing in WIFOM from roles like Virgin or so to avoid the NK.

Did you think about avoiding your NK that way or wasn't that part of your considerations?

PPE: 3

[A Drowned Kernel]

I am actually confused about this. First of all, why the heck would ADK claim as UB here. Governors are not really likely and its not like it would even be a certainty whether a hypothetical governor would even save Joseph here (UB is most convenient claim, would be NKed afterwards if actual UB)

I thought that ADK is WIFOM'ing UB/Virgin/Commuter or the like, that explains the non-NK. So we need to answer whether we should treat ADKs thing as an actual UB claim. As of now, I don't treat it as such; what do you think? Even without taking the claim into account, I strongly townread ADK (did not re-read) for his very hard push on Joseph.

Also, I am confused by the choice of Scola as target.

Governor isn't that unlikely (I will admit I haven't crunched any of the actual numbers) and I'm assuming Joseph's claim was an attempt to be save and/or out the actual UB. Other than the IC status, the role isn't all that powerful, and Joseph being saved would be super crappy because we would 1) lose a day, 2) have to spend D2 in a 1v1, and 3) people might use their N1 actions suboptimally with the misinformation. I made the decision to claim

.
Fair enough, sounds sensible (governor likelihood is btw 20% conditioning on a UB if my code is correct); especially after weighing in WIFOM from roles like Virgin or so to avoid the NK.

Did you think about avoiding your NK that way or wasn't that part of your considerations?

PPE: 3

I fully expected to be NK'd, that wasn't part of my consideration

[2.71828.....]

Just a few of Dylan's posts:

Call me the shepherd, cuz I've apparently got a lot of sheep haha.

I voted scola for seeming to use a joke RVS vote to create an actual wagon on Joseph as the 3rd vote on the wagon. It was a real vote since my LL vote was clearly RVS and that was the first scummy thing I'd noticed, but I did not expect that to kick off a wagon with that little substance. I still stand by it being a slightly scummy post, so I'm leaving my vote for now, that was just unexpected to come back and see the wagon that blew up. I agree with Didds there was probably scum somewhere behind me on the wagon.

post noted by Calamitis as scummy

-snip-

I agree, I don't really think what Joseph did was scummy. I know I'm not the first to say this, but I'm more inclined to look at the people that are most focused on him instead.

ppe 1

Defending Joseph.  In fact, is very consistent in his defense of Joseph and never really even entertains the thought that Joseph is scum

So earlier I thought scum likely helped build momentum for the scola wagon, and I think scum would be likely to be pushing for Joseph to some extent. The pool of people who were in both those sets are ADK and LL.  I would vote for either equally, but for now since I don't think I've ever played with ADK, Vote: LL.

saying scum are people who voted for BOTH scola and Joseph.  One we know is town, one we know is scum.  Looking at this intersection and using it to vote for someone I think is interesting, and potentially scummy

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

Based on last game, that means that's the scum team right? haha jk.  I think right now I'm still leaning scola for today. LL and ADK are options based on the wagon argument I had earlier. Agree town on the bird at least.

ppe 1

Joking about who the scum team is

I was about to post explaining a few more scum points I've given scola and vote there, but I after soloing WCD due to e's posts, I buy it enough to vote: WCD instead for now.

For the record, the short version is that scola's last 3 posts have basically been identical, and they've been such that one of them wouldn't really be scummy, but not contributing other content in between posts like them definitely is.

Jumping on a new alternative wagon to Joseph

[Calamitas]

Started doing this but decided to post Space first as I was more confident about them.

In addition to what I quoted first, those two hit my eyes while re-reading. Dylan seemed to me (though I haven't checked this too carefully, i.e. didn't check timestamps and stuff) at one point actively avoiding to comment on Joseph as of thinking what to say. Instead, he made this helpful, but nothing-saying comment.

@ scolapasta -
you have any reads or avenues you like at this point?
your current vote is RVS or no?
you also played the last M game with Joseph, and he was skum then. How you feel about Joseph now?

I don't think we've played before. I'm always town and usually mislynched

Swowl = DatSwan. Username change, not player change.

I mean except last game right?
But unlike last game, I do not see a whole hell of a lot of a reason why you stand out today.

I agree, I don't really think what Joseph did was scummy. I know I'm not the first to say this, but I'm more inclined to look at the people that are most focused on him instead.

ppe 1

Then I saw this one, that struck me as well.

I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now

1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".

But to be honest, the later part of the day did make me doubt this a bit, I mean, I actually agreed with his argument against lynching Joseph; so that part makes sense from a town perspective (also, Space had a similar sentiment).

Nevertheless, scummy I would say. Still need to decide whom out of mail-mi, Dylan and Swowl I prefer as of now.

(Have some quotes on mail-mi going next, didn't carefully checked Swowl yet but seemed to weirdly avoid Joseph)

PPE: many

[Calamitas]

Started doing this but decided to post Space first as I was more confident about them.

In addition to what I quoted first, those two hit my eyes while re-reading. Dylan seemed to me (though I haven't checked this too carefully, i.e. didn't check timestamps and stuff) at one point actively avoiding to comment on Joseph as of thinking what to say. Instead, he made this helpful, but nothing-saying comment.

@ scolapasta -
you have any reads or avenues you like at this point?
your current vote is RVS or no?
you also played the last M game with Joseph, and he was skum then. How you feel about Joseph now?

I don't think we've played before. I'm always town and usually mislynched

Swowl = DatSwan. Username change, not player change.

I mean except last game right?
But unlike last game, I do not see a whole hell of a lot of a reason why you stand out today.

I agree, I don't really think what Joseph did was scummy. I know I'm not the first to say this, but I'm more inclined to look at the people that are most focused on him instead.

ppe 1

Then I saw this one, that struck me as well.

I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now

1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".

QUOTE FAIL

But to be honest, the later part of the day did make me doubt this a bit, I mean, I actually agreed with his argument against lynching Joseph; so that part makes sense from a town perspective (also, Space had a similar sentiment).

Nevertheless, scummy I would say. Still need to decide whom out of mail-mi, Dylan and Swowl I prefer as of now.

(Have some quotes on mail-mi going next, didn't carefully checked Swowl yet but seemed to weirdly avoid Joseph)

PPE: many

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hmm

Scola was the main alternative wagon to joseph; if joseph's partners were both bussing, then killing scola and revealing him as town would be a good way to paint the people who ended the day voting for him as scummy

[Calamitas]

Finally some mail-mi quotes I really don't like. He was pushing against Joseph in a playful way at the perfect time from the perspective from scum. At the point where there wasn't a strong case on Joseph and small, innocent seeming stuff can easily avert attention lynch (see how scola evaporated)

Swan! How are you?? I miss talking to you every day!

You don’t find Joseph’s L-1 shenanigans scummy?

Why no number for voting Joseph?

I'm sorry, Joseph is not a menu option. He is acting like himself, which is decidedly null. Please press 4 to listen to the menu again, or state which option you would like.

I agree that Joseph's behaviour is very Joseph-like, rather than being necessarily role-indicative. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad lynch for D1.

It seems to me that your preference for lynches is currently set to "scum." Are you sure you'd like me to switch that to "players with an easily lynchable meta"?

this game is weirdely slow

We could lynch Joseph

I'm sorry, Joseph is not a valid menu option. Please restate which option you'd like to follow, or press 4 to hear the menu again.

PPE: 1

[SpaceAnemone]

b) From the point of a stats person, "Expected number of PRs" is a weird thing to ask for and not the reason why we are doing stats. This sounds much like him not having the stats and not knowing what exactly is interesting

Haha, yes! I wondered whether to townread you for the same reason (i.e. Joseph not asking the right question), except that if you're scum then I can kind of imaging you being smart and devious enough to mislead Joseph with exactly that plan in mind :-P Does an uncoached Joseph even use "expected number" in the technical sense?

I also worried that you were kind of quick to criticise me for talking about stats (e.g. #253) without any confirmation for you that I'm townie... the only way you could be confident that I'm town (especially back at that stage in the game) would be if you're scum and therefore know I'm not. But then being paranoid about you is probably another of my ingrained biases :-)

[Calamitas]

Hmm

Scola was the main alternative wagon to joseph; if joseph's partners were both bussing, then killing scola and revealing him as town would be a good way to paint the people who ended the day voting for him as scummy

Good catch, not sure what to make of that though. The choice seems still just super weird to me, need to think about this.

PPE: 1

[Calamitas]

b) From the point of a stats person, "Expected number of PRs" is a weird thing to ask for and not the reason why we are doing stats. This sounds much like him not having the stats and not knowing what exactly is interesting

Haha, yes! I wondered whether to townread you for the same reason (i.e. Joseph not asking the right question), except that if you're scum then I can kind of imaging you being smart and devious enough to mislead Joseph with exactly that plan in mind :-P Does an uncoached Joseph even use "expected number" in the technical sense?

I also worried that you were kind of quick to criticise me for talking about stats (e.g. #253) without any confirmation for you that I'm townie... the only way you could be confident that I'm town (especially back at that stage in the game) would be if you're scum and therefore know I'm not. But then being paranoid about you is probably another of my ingrained biases :-)

I can live with being a null-read all-the-time, because my scum game being assumed as perfect

And I mean, the reason why I reacted so quickly was the felt "I want to talk about stats to get out of this messy nothing"-mode and relate to that, but saw it as not helpful for town

Tbh, I didn't even think about your alignment in that moment, it seemed like just a bad topic to talk about. Actually, I felt a little bad after commenting "Big promise" on your first stats post in a bit of excited-rush and censored myself to not bring it up again

[SpaceAnemone]

@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).

Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).

Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.

For the naive one, did forget about conditioning on Mafias flip. But will not change much I assume.

[2.71828.....]

@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).

Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.

For the naive one, did forget about conditioning on Mafias flip. But will not change much I assume.

What is the goal for figuring out these probabilities?  To see if ADK is fake claiming UB?  Where Joseph fakes during twilight, then ADK fakes during twilight? 

I don't care how the probabilities work, sometimes the simple solution is the right one.  That is, ADK is the UB and town.

[Calamitas]

vote: joseph just so we actually get a lynch.

I am confused by this. I just re-read yuma, they (he?she?)
1) pointed out Joseph was scummy
2) forgot to vote for him
3) then said it should gain traction
4) moved (though not just out of not-traction if I see it correctly)
5)Voted Joseph "so we actually get a lynch"
Yuma scumread Joseph hard most of the day, this statement sounds too weak for me