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Author Topic: What are the kingdom generation odds post-Menagerie?  (Read 919 times)

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kieranmillar

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What are the kingdom generation odds post-Menagerie?
« on: March 18, 2020, 08:04:24 am »
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Someone who is good at stats please help satiate my curiosity.

Menagerie has added 30 kingdom cards and 40 landscapes to the mix. This means if you ignore first edition removed cards and include promos, there are now 354 kingdom cards and 115 landscapes. Assuming a full random selection from all second edition, using standard setup rules (so landscapes shuffled into randomisers and a max of two are included) what are now the odds of:
  • A particular kingdom card appearing?
  • A particular landscape appearing?
  • Colonies and platinums being in the game? (Prosperity has 25 kingdom cards)
  • Shelters being in the game? (DA has 35 kingdom cards)
  • A particular two kingdom card combo appearing?
  • A particular three kingdom card combo appearing?
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kieranmillar

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Re: What are the kingdom generation odds post-Menagerie?
« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2020, 08:16:39 am »
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I think I figured out the first one, 2.825%, which means a particular kingdom card will show up in every one of 35.4 games.

Although I ignored the effects of Young Witch and Way of the Mouse. I guess 2 and 3 cost kingdom cards show up ever so slightly more often.
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