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[ashersky]

A few more random thoughts:

I think Jimmmm lied about his power.
Hence, WCD isn't cleared.
That series of votes at the end was super scummy, and comes from three of the four non-town reads I have.

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmm > ADK = WCD > 2.7 > LL

You think it's more likely that WCD and I are both scum than either e or LL?

[Jimmmmm]

Why do you trust LL?

[ashersky]

Literally none of you think I am non-town, so I'm not sure what the meaning of any that was.

I suppose the remaining scum have a lot of WIFOM thinking to do.

I will say, town increased its chances of losing by a TON by lynching me.

Hey scum -- the smart move is to shoot LL tonight, removing the chance of being caught.  Then just outplay the others during the day.

[ashersky]

Jimmmm > ADK = WCD > 2.7 > LL

You think it's more likely that WCD and I are both scum than either e or LL?

Yes.

Why do you trust LL?

I think I can read him.  The QT.  Could he be playing me by using my predisposition to believe him?  Sure.  If he did, great game by him.  I guess I'm willing to lose to that, and adjust my reads accordingly in the future.  But my gut says town.

[ashersky]

Jimmmm > ADK = WCD > 2.7 > LL

You think it's more likely that WCD and I are both scum than either e or LL?

Wait, not "both" so much as "either."  The equals sign is just saying the scum read is the same level.

[ashersky]

Why did you lynch me?  You know (regardless of your alignment) that I'm town.  You've never incorrectly read my alignment in a game ever, I'm fairly certain.

So you lynched me for information, because you are bored with the day dragging out, or because you are scum.

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmm > ADK = WCD > 2.7 > LL

You think it's more likely that WCD and I are both scum than either e or LL?

Wait, not "both" so much as "either."  The equals sign is just saying the scum read is the same level.

Is there a scenario in your head in which she is scum and I am Town? I think by saying WCD is scum, you're saying that I am as well.

[ashersky]

The info is useless, since there's nothing new.  Removing me from the lynchpool does nothing for you since you already knew I was town.  So scum seems most likely.

Unfortunately, on this data point, this applies to all the voters.

[ashersky]

Jimmmm > ADK = WCD > 2.7 > LL

You think it's more likely that WCD and I are both scum than either e or LL?

Wait, not "both" so much as "either."  The equals sign is just saying the scum read is the same level.

Is there a scenario in your head in which she is scum and I am Town? I think by saying WCD is scum, you're saying that I am as well.

Sure.  Your result could have been messed with in a multitude of ways.

[Jimmmmm]

Why did you lynch me?  You know (regardless of your alignment) that I'm town.  You've never incorrectly read my alignment in a game ever, I'm fairly certain.

So you lynched me for information, because you are bored with the day dragging out, or because you are scum.

I lynched you because  you were in my top 2 scum reads. I know Lekkit and WCD are Town. I'm pretty sure e is Town. My gut says ADK is Town. That leaves you and LL. I don't know why you think I know you're Town (apart from that you've been hammered and haven't 'fessed up).

[ashersky]

Why did you lynch me?  You know (regardless of your alignment) that I'm town.  You've never incorrectly read my alignment in a game ever, I'm fairly certain.

So you lynched me for information, because you are bored with the day dragging out, or because you are scum.

I lynched you because  you were in my top 2 scum reads. I know Lekkit and WCD are Town. I'm pretty sure e is Town. My gut says ADK is Town. That leaves you and LL. I don't know why you think I know you're Town (apart from that you've been hammered and haven't 'fessed up).

I think you know I'm town because in every single game we've played together when I've been non-town, you've known.  And it hasn't been because you just always assume I'm not town. 

You've also correctly defended me every time.  Until this time.  Which is odd to me.  And odd behavior could be an indicator of a non-town alignment.

[ashersky]

I wonder if No Lynch would have been a better option than a mislynch here.

[Jimmmmm]

Sure.  Your result could have been messed with in a multitude of ways.

How many ways can you think of? Godfather is claimed, JOAT is taken. The only other way I can think of redirecting. Certainly not a multitude.

[ashersky]

Anything else I can share for anyone who is here?

Assume one death, that's five alive tomorrow.  If LL is town, he dies at night.  So IC + 4.  A lot of folks want to say WCD is town, so 3 options.  If scum survives, kill IC.

That's LYLO with 1 v 2 where WCD is still alive -- and you can go 50/50 if you still want to believe WCD is town.  I believe in this scenario, Jimmmm is in the final three, so no confirmation of his claim.  And Jimmmm is mislynched if WCD is scum.

That's an impressive win, WCD!

[ashersky]

Sure.  Your result could have been messed with in a multitude of ways.

How many ways can you think of? Godfather is claimed, JOAT is taken. The only other way I can think of redirecting. Certainly not a multitude.

Well, your power is an invented one related to districts.  I can invent plenty of others: any powers that target your district target another instead is an easy one.

Targeting a player would necessarily require you being the target -- so redirected you, as you mention.
If it is a district power like yours, the sky is the limit.

[ashersky]

If LL is scum, he probably shoots Lekkit and needs to survive tomorrow by getting ADK lynched, I think.

In all scenarios, ADK and Jimmmm will survive every night, so 3-man lylo will be those two plus whomever survives the culling, or the scum player if they are town.

[ashersky]

My best guess is:

Day 5: Lekkit, WCD, ADK, Jimmmm, 2.7
Day 6: WCD, Jimmmm, 2.7

Man, I keep forgetting 2.7 is here.  He could definitely be scum I guess, but not using that vig shot?  Maybe it is day vig only, and he didn't want to be too scummy about it?

[ashersky]

Ok, sounds like a plan. We can lynch ADK tomorrow if it comes around

Vote: ashersky

This 360 to vote me is pretty scummy and out of nowhere.

[ashersky]

So remaining players, if town:

3 VTs (Jimmm, 2.7, WCD)
1 Godfather (ADK)
1 IC + secret gift (Lekkit)
1 Motion Detector (LL)

I mean, someone's lying about something.  From QT posts, plus claims, LL's claim seems legit to me.  Lekkit was mod confirmed.  2.7 was mod confirmed when his shot didn't work again.

That leaves Jimmmm, WCD, and ADK with unconfirmed power claims.  Again, aligning well with (supporting?) my reads.

[ashersky]

Possible lies:

Jimmm, WCD, ADK could be 100% lies.
2.7 could be partially lying -- only dayvig, for example.

Lekkit isn't lying, and I guessLL could have made it up really well, but I doubt it.




These are just thoughts on role/power, not alignment specifically.

[ashersky]

So in my final estimation, scum is in {Jimmmm, WCD, ADK, 2.7}.

I think I would prefer to lynch one of Jimmm/ADK on D5, WCD/2.7 on D6.

Regardless, Jimmmm before WCD, as stated, to at least partially confirm claims (who knows if he would even flip "District Cop").

Best case would have been to lynch ADK today instead of me.

[Swowl]

THREAD LOCKED!

[Swowl]

Vote Count 4.Final:

Ashersky (4): ADK, WCD, Jimmm, E!
ADK (1): LaLight
Not Voting (2): Ashersky, Lekkit

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.
Night 4 starts now and ends on April 16th at 12:15am Forum Time.
Please submit night actions within 36 hours.

[Swowl]

Ashersky has been lynched! They were Gale, the Town Aligned Tracker.

Though they tried, the Capitol soldiers could not seem to remove the binoculars from their neck as they whisked the body away....