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Author Topic: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (MAFIA WIN!)  (Read 103357 times)

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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #725 on: February 19, 2020, 08:24:15 pm »

We also don't know in what order redirectors were processed so can we work this out or not?

I think cayvie's order of events sounds good. Not that I doublechecked, her conclusion was basically that you picked yourself and ari...hmm...is that possible?

i suppose i might as well get this clarified here, because i haven't asked this question specifically yet

through shenanigans, if a redirector's orders get changed to make someone target themselves, are those orders processed? that is, if a redirector winds up giving orders to make raerae target herself, will raerae actually target herself with her night action?
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mail-mi

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #726 on: February 19, 2020, 08:32:37 pm »

We also don't know in what order redirectors were processed so can we work this out or not?

I think cayvie's order of events sounds good. Not that I doublechecked, her conclusion was basically that you picked yourself and ari...hmm...is that possible?

i suppose i might as well get this clarified here, because i haven't asked this question specifically yet

through shenanigans, if a redirector's orders get changed to make someone target themselves, are those orders processed? that is, if a redirector winds up giving orders to make raerae target herself, will raerae actually target herself with her night action?

Yes.
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #727 on: February 19, 2020, 08:34:30 pm »

so it looks like now raerae knows that she killed Galz!

well, or ari.

well, or me. if i'm lying.

well, or none of this, if she's lying.

well, or something else, if there's more redirection afoot.
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raerae

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #728 on: February 19, 2020, 08:44:11 pm »

This doesn't answer my question...if there's a "tie", which are resolved first? Random, first in first out...what?

They are resolved randomly.

mail-mi also said this so how do we account for randomness? That's what I was referring to.
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raerae

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #729 on: February 19, 2020, 08:45:14 pm »

so it looks like now raerae knows that she killed Galz!

well, or ari.

well, or me. if i'm lying.

well, or none of this, if she's lying.

well, or something else, if there's more redirection afoot.

If I targeted myself with a kill then I'd be dead.
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #730 on: February 19, 2020, 08:51:22 pm »

so it looks like now raerae knows that she killed Galz!

well, or ari.

well, or me. if i'm lying.

well, or none of this, if she's lying.

well, or something else, if there's more redirection afoot.

If I targeted myself with a kill then I'd be dead.

no you clearly saw yourself killing galzria. it's the only thing that makes sense. XD

This doesn't answer my question...if there's a "tie", which are resolved first? Random, first in first out...what?

They are resolved randomly.

mail-mi also said this so how do we account for randomness? That's what I was referring to.

yeah if we get in a scenario where there's no clear order to resolve the redirections in, then i'm inclined to just give up trying rather than try to work out probabilities or whatever. but we're not there yet!
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #731 on: February 19, 2020, 08:56:45 pm »

wait wait wait

i just realized

i'm cleared by these claims i think

because even without taking my claim into account, raerae still didn't target me last night!
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #732 on: February 19, 2020, 08:57:35 pm »

if you take my claim out of it, raerae winds up targeting herself and nobody else.
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #733 on: February 19, 2020, 08:59:01 pm »

i mean i'm not 100% cleared obv but now it's not just my word saying raerae doesn't have a result on me.
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #734 on: February 19, 2020, 09:05:16 pm »

so if i'm doing this right, if all the redirector claims are true, we wind up with raerae targeting both herself and you.

LaLight, shraeye, does this info give you any insights into anything?
So far it is the absolute 100% least believable claim.  That's my gut reaction
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #735 on: February 19, 2020, 09:05:39 pm »

How useful is any of this, given that there's almost certainly someone lying?
Yeah, definitely
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #736 on: February 19, 2020, 09:09:01 pm »

i mean i'm not 100% cleared obv but now it's not just my word saying raerae doesn't have a result on me.
Yeah, in no way are you cleared.

Also, there is now less than a 0% chance that all redirectors are town.  I'm leaning really hard into "all of the scum are redirectors of some type". And believing that more and more each time I reconsider.
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #737 on: February 19, 2020, 09:11:12 pm »

i mean i'm not 100% cleared obv but now it's not just my word saying raerae doesn't have a result on me.
Yeah, in no way are you cleared.

Also, there is now less than a 0% chance that all redirectors are town.  I'm leaning really hard into "all of the scum are redirectors of some type". And believing that more and more each time I reconsider.

how many scum would you guess have claimed redirector so far?

i'm leaning toward 1, and i'm already voting him.
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #738 on: February 19, 2020, 09:14:42 pm »

(also each time i see your sig in this game, shraeye, i wanna be like, cmon, do some graph theory here, it's an actual chance for it)

(pretty sure redirector chain resolution is a graph theory problem anyhow)
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #739 on: February 19, 2020, 09:18:55 pm »

All of them
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #740 on: February 19, 2020, 09:20:05 pm »

All of them

so uh are you saying the scumteam is 3-ish out of me/ari/wcd/joseph??

dang
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #741 on: February 19, 2020, 09:23:13 pm »

I'm including raerae in "claimed redirector". I know she didn't specifically, but I'll eat a hat if that's not the result she "had" on cayvie
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #742 on: February 19, 2020, 09:23:38 pm »

wait i think multiple scum redirectors would be overpowered, as they could coordinate to spray their bullets. unless that was specifically disallowed, i guess.
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #743 on: February 19, 2020, 09:37:25 pm »

Unvote
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raerae

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #744 on: February 19, 2020, 09:45:55 pm »

I'm including raerae in "claimed redirector". I know she didn't specifically, but I'll eat a hat if that's not the result she "had" on cayvie

Why is 'had' in quotes? Trying to hear your emphasis.
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shraeye

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #745 on: February 19, 2020, 09:52:26 pm »

I'm including raerae in "claimed redirector". I know she didn't specifically, but I'll eat a hat if that's not the result she "had" on cayvie

Why is 'had' in quotes? Trying to hear your emphasis.
Because "has" sounds like I 100% believe your statement and also like I 100% believe that it is true even after redirects were applied...and I am not at/near 100% on either
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raerae

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #746 on: February 19, 2020, 09:59:14 pm »

So, cayvie, if we pretend everybody is a fruit vendor, who ends up with apples at the end of everything? I'm having a difficult time following these chains. Like you and Joseph are the starts of different chains, right?
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raerae

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #747 on: February 19, 2020, 10:01:00 pm »

I'm including raerae in "claimed redirector". I know she didn't specifically, but I'll eat a hat if that's not the result she "had" on cayvie

Why is 'had' in quotes? Trying to hear your emphasis.
Because "has" sounds like I 100% believe your statement and also like I 100% believe that it is true even after redirects were applied...and I am not at/near 100% on either

So "had" = "claims to have" correct?
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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #748 on: February 19, 2020, 10:15:59 pm »

So, cayvie, if we pretend everybody is a fruit vendor, who ends up with apples at the end of everything? I'm having a difficult time following these chains. Like you and Joseph are the starts of different chains, right?

yeah bascially. i'm considering scanning my resolution graphs i've been doodling and posting them, but, uh, i'm not sure that would help. i'm not sure how fruit vendors work here? i'll step through my resolution one step at a time.

orders:

cayvie: raerae > ari
ari: glooble > raerae
joseph: didds > ari
didds: pubby > raerae
raerae: a mystery


we can't resolve ari or didds yet, because they've been targeted by redirectors who haven't resolved yet. that is, they're in bold on the right side of the colons up there.

so let's resolve cayvie first (it doesn't matter, joseph can be resolved first too).


cayvie: raerae > ari
ari: glooble > raerae
joseph: didds > ari
didds: pubby > raerae
raerae: ari

i put the changed orders in italics, because those orders can't be re-redirected; further redirections on italicized orders will just give that person more targets.

now we'll resolve joseph

cayvie: raerae > ari
ari: glooble > raerae
joseph: didds > ari
didds: ari > raerae
raerae: ari

now we can resolve didds, because her name doesn't appear to the right of the colons in bold anymore.

cayvie: raerae > ari
ari: raerae > raerae
joseph: didds > ari
didds: ari > raerae
raerae: ari

and now we can resolve ari

cayvie: raerae > ari
ari: raerae > raerae
joseph: didds > ari
didds: ari > raerae
raerae: ari, raerae

and now your action gets resolved, targeting yourself and ari.

does this make sense?


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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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cayvie

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Re: BM29: Bud Idea Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #749 on: February 19, 2020, 10:20:12 pm »

incidentally, following shraeye's comment, i did a resolution graph to see what happened if raerae was a redirector and gave orders of "make cayvie target galzria". i was worried that this would lead to a contradiction, and thus a random resolution, but in fact it doesn't!

it actually doesn't change anything; things get resolved just like in the previous post, except we have to wait until didds is resolved before my action can be resolved. raerae winds up trying to make herself and ari both target galzria, but she can't, since ari and raerae have already been resolved at that point.
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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