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Author Topic: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game Over - Mafia Wins!  (Read 151771 times)

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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1025 on: November 12, 2019, 02:02:14 pm »

Oh, Request prod on Raptor

It would be nice to get the perspective of an IC before we lynch the player who might guarantee his survival.

Give me the afternoon, Yesterday was holiday is the states and I was in the city with family. I had less time then I though.
Yesterday was a holiday in the states?! Noone told me! I didn't get a holiday.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1026 on: November 12, 2019, 02:04:33 pm »

Vote Count

jotheonah (5): raerae, Joseph2302, SpaceAnemone, LaLight, Eevee
Eevee (1): jotheonah
raerae (1): faust
Not Voting (4): Galzria, Xxraptorslayer96, Maxford


Let me do a quick analysis of my own wagon, since I know scum is champing at the bit right now to get my lynch through.

Vote 1, from raerae:

I'm buying nothing that joth is selling. MiX was dynamite fishing for PRs here and joth called him out on it.

am I at L-1? do I need to claim?


You're at L-2 and you needed to claim like 3 days ago.

Somebody really wants to know what the PRs are, huh?


Then says,

I was planning not to protect anyone tonight, tbh, since no one itt is towny enough to be an obvious nightkill.

I guess now I'm an obvious nightkill. Maybe I can self-target.

Indicating he knows he shouldn't use his power N1.  So tell me, what self-respecting doctor uses their power when they're likely to be the NK on the guy they think is trying to force claims?

Vote: joth

This comes fairly late in the day after a lot of people have publicly scumread me or insinuated they think I'm scum. But raerae is the first to lay a vote down. She does it with a solid case and a lot of explanation. Could be scum, knowing town needs a push to get a real wagon going. But like I said, I have been townreading raerae, so I think its earnest townie scumhunting (which happens to be wrong, but none of the logic is bad).

Vote 2, from Joseph:

...
I agree, this seems like bullshit- well spotted raerae
Vote: joth

Just a hop-on sheep vote. Second on the wagon is a great place for scum to be, makes it into a real wagon, generates momentum.

Vote 3, Space

As before, I think there's a good chance that Joth is scum, but it's especially backed up by the way MiX behaved on the Joth wagon at the end of D1.
You're going to have to explain that some more.

I think I already put forward a case on Joth, stated a bunch of suspicion around his oh-so-convenient claim, and pointed out that MiX's illogical and unhelpful behaviour on that wagon -- which he himself admitted later was anti-town -- looked a lot like trying to move the lynch towards Shraeye and away from Joth.

Now I'm pointing out that we know for sure that MiX knew exactly who all the scum are, so his behaviour on the Joth wagon looks even more suspicious, meaning my suspicion on Joth is strong coming into D3.

Is there anything here you feel doesn't follow logically?

Why are you not voting for him then?

Laziness :-P Well, at the time it was only a few hours into D3, and no votes were flying yet.

Vote: Joth

This one is interesting. Space was definitely pushing my lynch without laying a vote down, and then lays the vote down when called out. I tend to find this scummier than not: As long as they weren't voting, they had options and weren't on record with the lynch. They're also in a position where they can hammer, and scum would love to be in a position to hammer here.

Also, specifically saying they didn't vote because no one was voting yet is interesting. Space, why does the lack of votes so far prevent you from voting for a scumread?

Notable non-vote, Eevee

Joth, I thought Mix was very scummy coming off day 1, so raerae's inquiry feels very relevant to me. If you can't come up with a convincing explanation for protecting him, I think I'm going to vote for you.

You have 24 hours.

<<faust: why not vote?>>

No particular reason, trying to be careful with my votes with such high portion of our population being scum. And I wanted to make what I imagined to be wa Taken joke, which, upon googling, isn’t even a line from that movie.

I'm a very very easy mislynch right now. If I'm scum, I'm frustrated that it's taking so long, I'm trying to figure out how I can push it along without seeming scummy, and I'm holding off my vote because the more town on the wagon the better. I probably make a post like this.

Vote 4, LaLight

Right, I have some things to say, right after vote: joth

I gotta say town on this one. LaLight's clearly not overthinking this, just jumping on a wagon he thinks is on scum before moving on to other things on his mind. No hedging, no strategery.

Vote 5, Eevee

vote: joth
L-1

scummmmmy impatient Eevee did his due diligence with the hedgey warning post now he just wants to push the dang mislynch through already. Boy, I know that feel.

And now my fate rests in the hands of Maxford, who I actually think is town. Concluding thoughts in another post because people don't love wall posts.

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LaLight

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1027 on: November 12, 2019, 02:08:26 pm »

if a better option presents itself.
Here's a suggestion: Why don't you present a better option?
I would if I had one, right? Or I'm scum.

So, to answer your question: I don't have one.

So you don't have one, so you're scum, am i reading this right?
That would be the correct logical outcome of that statement

I feel like Eevee is one of the nicest people who doesn't like to lie so much he tries to not lie technically. I do this also sometimes.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1028 on: November 12, 2019, 02:08:45 pm »

Based on a read of today, I think the scum team consists of Joseph, Eevee, and faust or Joseph, Eevee, and Space.

faust believes very seriously in splitting scum teams on wagons, so if both his partners are on my wagon, he not only wants to be off of it, he's willing to be off of it in a big way because there's no way he changes his mind and he might as well milk that town red from my flip. I actually think this is quite likely, having just played a game on a team with faust as scum.

If it's Joseph, Eevee, and Space, they are so confident in my lynchability that they're willing to all be on the wagon and they think they can get a town to hammer. And, like, I would take that bet. Even if Maxford or raptor doesn't, faust or Galz will do it at deadline to get a lynch through.

One last thing, I am upgrading LaLight to town on my reads list. There is no way that scum pushes a wagon on town with the level of certainty he's expressing.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1029 on: November 12, 2019, 02:13:47 pm »

I just played a game with him as my scum partner. This thing he’s doing with me, where he sort of dances around defending me but still leaves himself lots of room to advocate my lynch, it fits the profile.
faust believes very seriously in splitting scum teams on wagons, so if both his partners are on my wagon, he not only wants to be off of it, he's willing to be off of it in a big way because there's no way he changes his mind and he might as well milk that town red from my flip.
It cannot be both of these. I think you are just fitting your story to the behaviour you observe. Also I don't think I will get any towncred from your flip, unfortunately.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1030 on: November 12, 2019, 02:16:56 pm »

I just played a game with him as my scum partner. This thing he’s doing with me, where he sort of dances around defending me but still leaves himself lots of room to advocate my lynch, it fits the profile.
faust believes very seriously in splitting scum teams on wagons, so if both his partners are on my wagon, he not only wants to be off of it, he's willing to be off of it in a big way because there's no way he changes his mind and he might as well milk that town cred from my flip.
It cannot be both of these. I think you are just fitting your story to the behaviour you observe. Also I don't think I will get any towncred from your flip, unfortunately.

That's fair. I think I had you on the first one before, but since then you've become more overt in your defense of me.

And I am trying to see that you don't :)
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1031 on: November 12, 2019, 02:18:00 pm »

I can see that raerae isn't happening today, not with joth's hard townread. I want to point out the scumminess of this post for posterity though:

LL being a super hedgemonster right now is ringing all my scumbells. If you all are insistent on leaving joth alive I'll jump to LL and LL only.

And with that, vote: Eevee
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1032 on: November 12, 2019, 02:47:49 pm »

tbh my hard townread got a little softer in my reread of today. And faust, I badly want to believe that you are town.

People who are scumreading me, why would I claim to have used my shot on MiX? Why would I claim to not have any more shots, after I left myself open with the X-shot thing in my original claim? If I were scum here, why wouldn't I be playing the "keep me alive so I can use my last shot" card here?
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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1033 on: November 12, 2019, 02:59:12 pm »

if a better option presents itself.
Here's a suggestion: Why don't you present a better option?
I would if I had one, right? Or I'm scum.

So, to answer your question: I don't have one.

So you don't have one, so you're scum, am i reading this right?
That would be the correct logical outcome of that statement

I feel like Eevee is one of the nicest people who doesn't like to lie so much he tries to not lie technically. I do this also sometimes.
I don't get this.

I thought the question was redundant - if I'm town and have a better wagon in mind, I'm obviously presenting it. Because I haven't presented one, it means that either I'm scum and lying or I didn't have a better wagon in mind. Latter is true, but it's obviously what I'd say either way.

I'm town btw. Also I'm not scum.
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1034 on: November 12, 2019, 03:00:59 pm »

I can see that raerae isn't happening today, not with joth's hard townread. I want to point out the scumminess of this post for posterity though:

LL being a super hedgemonster right now is ringing all my scumbells. If you all are insistent on leaving joth alive I'll jump to LL and LL only.

And with that, vote: Eevee

Yup, just reposting something I've said is the best way to explain how scummy said post is. If you actually want a lunch to go through you've got to make a case, otherwise you're just making noise.
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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1035 on: November 12, 2019, 03:05:03 pm »

I think no one has reread Mix today? I'll take that project on once I'm done playing poker (hey flavor!) unless I'm too spent.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1036 on: November 12, 2019, 03:24:10 pm »

I can see that raerae isn't happening today, not with joth's hard townread. I want to point out the scumminess of this post for posterity though:

LL being a super hedgemonster right now is ringing all my scumbells. If you all are insistent on leaving joth alive I'll jump to LL and LL only.

And with that, vote: Eevee

Yup, just reposting something I've said is the best way to explain how scummy said post is. If you actually want a lunch to go through you've got to make a case, otherwise you're just making noise.
Well, I didn't see an avenue for your lynch today, but if you want me to make a case on you... sure. The whole thing was disingenuous; you're trying to push a lynch on someone who just softclaimed while at the same time suggestion the false idea that "you all are insistent on leaving joth alive" when in fact I was the only one to make that argument. But I guess if the majority of the joth pushers are your scummates then having one townie arguing against it might seem like considerable opposition.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1037 on: November 12, 2019, 03:25:51 pm »

I can see that raerae isn't happening today, not with joth's hard townread. I want to point out the scumminess of this post for posterity though:

LL being a super hedgemonster right now is ringing all my scumbells. If you all are insistent on leaving joth alive I'll jump to LL and LL only.

And with that, vote: Eevee

Yup, just reposting something I've said is the best way to explain how scummy said post is. If you actually want a lunch to go through you've got to make a case, otherwise you're just making noise.
Well, I didn't see an avenue for your lynch today, but if you want me to make a case on you... sure. The whole thing was disingenuous; you're trying to push a lynch on someone who just softclaimed while at the same time suggestion the false idea that "you all are insistent on leaving joth alive" when in fact I was the only one to make that argument. But I guess if the majority of the joth pushers are your scummates then having one townie arguing against it might seem like considerable opposition.
While I think raerae is townier than faust overall, this is spot on from faust.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1038 on: November 12, 2019, 03:47:36 pm »

I think no one has reread Mix today? I'll take that project on once I'm done playing poker (hey flavor!) unless I'm too spent.
I tried a bit of a reread but didn't find much
Other than ot made me want to lynch joth more
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1039 on: November 12, 2019, 03:56:58 pm »

I can see that raerae isn't happening today, not with joth's hard townread. I want to point out the scumminess of this post for posterity though:

LL being a super hedgemonster right now is ringing all my scumbells. If you all are insistent on leaving joth alive I'll jump to LL and LL only.

And with that, vote: Eevee

Yup, just reposting something I've said is the best way to explain how scummy said post is. If you actually want a lunch to go through you've got to make a case, otherwise you're just making noise.
Well, I didn't see an avenue for your lynch today, but if you want me to make a case on you... sure. The whole thing was disingenuous; you're trying to push a lynch on someone who just softclaimed while at the same time suggestion the false idea that "you all are insistent on leaving joth alive" when in fact I was the only one to make that argument. But I guess if the majority of the joth pushers are your scummates then having one townie arguing against it might seem like considerable opposition.

Eye. Roll. Nobody's done anything else today. I made the case and while people seem in support of a joth lunch they haven't (generally) done much more than say, "Good catch, raerae, we'll think about it." Nobody has brought forth any real alternatives other than saying, "Hey, LL's being a little lurky, how about we vote there?" I'm frustrated today is still happening but NOTHING is happening so, yeah, it does seem like somebody doesn't want joth to die but nobody has come out and said it's because they think he's town. You keep dancing around it but you mostly just say it's a bad idea and then throw an unsupported vote elsewhere.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1040 on: November 12, 2019, 03:59:51 pm »

You keep dancing around it but you mostly just say it's a bad idea and then throw an unsupported vote elsewhere.

I think joth is town, and a bad lynch.
Not sure how much clearer I need to be.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1041 on: November 12, 2019, 04:06:18 pm »

it does seem like somebody doesn't want joth to die
Not the same as "you all are insistent on keeping joth alive".
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1042 on: November 12, 2019, 04:08:29 pm »

You keep dancing around it but you mostly just say it's a bad idea and then throw an unsupported vote elsewhere.

I think joth is town, and a bad lynch.
Not sure how much clearer I need to be.

You could start with giving an actual reason. I know that goes against the faust code but might be fun to give it a shot.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1043 on: November 12, 2019, 04:10:03 pm »

it does seem like somebody doesn't want joth to die
Not the same as "you all are insistent on keeping joth alive".

Not all that different from my perspective. Saying he's probably scum and not presenting any alternatives certainly seems like trying to keep him alive.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1044 on: November 12, 2019, 04:11:56 pm »

It's 11 minutes of my birthday! Beast present would be eliminating scum :)

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1045 on: November 12, 2019, 04:17:17 pm »

Poker session could best be characterized as nasty, short and brutish, time to reread. Keep in mind that Mix knew who the scum are, but they wouldn't know he's their traitor.

Mix, a summary by Eevee:

RVS vote on shraeye

RVS vote on raerae after she votes for shraeye

RVS vote on Joseph (noting it's not a very good vote)

First vote I'd categorize as real, who knows, on Raptor

Calls joth's analysis laughably bad (mean! fwiw joth I know we've been disagreeing a bunch in this game but it's all love from me. <3 sorry if i'm wrong about you), votes for joth

says LaLight and me are one and the same for him, votes for LL

goes back to voting joth, when joth asks what the case on him is mix calls joth scummy for not being memorable and posting lengthy of posts of nothing.

Calls Joseph wagon bad, asks "what's it a counterwagon to, joth?", asks how many more votes it'd take to lynch Joseph (he was at l-6)

is upset at joth for voting for him, asking joth to do something "that lets me untunnel man", asks why joth votes for him.

unvotes joth and "assumes he's right about something"

asks faust if he wants to lynch joth today

chastises faust for continuing voting for joth

calls out lurkers, votes for raptor

cryptically says "joth is town but the votes are correct"

"Joth votes are silly at this point. Or are they? Vote: joth, just do your thing, that'll get the game going."

says he forgot about lalight again, votes for him

votes for galzria

says for a second time that lynching faust day1 is "just a mistake"

"I'm giving up on reading joth today. I had a theory, he shot it dead while being towny, which shot the other theory. He seems bent on being town today, and I like it."

"joth's latest post is super towny, it has everything I would expect from town!joth."


long post explaining his townread on joth, interesting given our current situation

quotes a vote count, says joth (4) is null, joseph (2) is towny and Eevee (2) is towny, votes for "his one true scumread" lalight.

faust points out shraeye is also at 2 votes, mix moves on shraeye "thats a better wagon"

explains his LL "case" as "lurking, putting votes in almost every post"

votes for joth "while i do some rereads, dont hammer!"

"i havent reread enough to unvote joth, but i really dont want to be there either"

says joth is a better wagon than LL or shraeye because "Bigger wagon, gets some pressure while I was rereading, LL wagon not going anywhere today, shraeye is a very interesting lynch that I need to actually think about"

laments on LL being unlynchable

votes shraeye (we are now at joth v shraeye for the day 1 lynch)

shraeye is put to l-1, mix votes joth "just in case"

cryptically votes for adk in the midst of the joth-shraeye situation, saying he pushed both shraeye and joth. says he'd hammer either if need be

"Don't like shraeye wagon (he's scummy, but as LL said, too fast, besides I can just go back), joth wagon is okay-ish but what else is there? Then I remembered ADK, he pushed both wagons, didn't he? Honestly I'm not sure, no time to reread atm. Maybe he's setting up the lynches?"

goes back to voting joth

joth is at l-1, mix agrees with joseph that shraeye > joth > nolynch, votes for shraeye (second time mix moved away from joth when he hit l-1?)

votes joth

says joth needed to claim like 3 days ago

votes shraeye, shraeye l-1

says shraeye should be hammered after joth claims doc


day 1 ends, shraeye is lynched

votes for faust, says he has a hunch

votes for space

"if joth is scum, that vc is very very important, but considering no counterclaim, not sure we can assume that"

"If joth is town, there's probably at least 1 scum in the shraeye wagon. If joth is scum, there's probably at least 2 scum in the shraeye wagon. Thus there's probably 1 scum in the shraeye wagon if we remove joth."

"From one point I jump from joth to shraeye to joth to shraeye to joth to shraeye...in the VCA. I'm going to omit these hops, because that was me telling joth to claim PR.

Just so people aren't surprised if I mentioned "only these people voted in this time period" and someone says "but you did"." - curious post considering mix would know joth is scum and will fakeclaim. kind of brazen if that's the case

says a faust reread came back empty, thinks there is scum in (eevee/LL/Galzria/Raptor), votes for LL for the snap vote on joth. says he had a slight townread on eevee from day 1 and doesn't want to vote for me yet

faust prompts for eevee votes, mix obliges

mix pushes for my lynch some more, calls my read list scummy and says it has an agenda behind it. hedges by saying again my day1 was towny

"eevee's "reads" are soooo weak its crazy"

vca, conclusions: "
I would definitely look into (faust, raerae, joth, LL, Eevee, Joseph, MiX) for today: all the hot wagons are here, and I think they're more useful than outside-of-early-wagon lynches given we know one of the early wagons was on the IC. From these, I would look into joth's partners to see if he could ever be scum: from my perspective a very likely one is LL just from the VCA, but also from what I remember of them voting joth and shraeye. Good lynches seem to be faust, Eevee, Joseph and me if you REALLY want to look into that, I'll admit I probably look scummy if joth's town."

says he doesn't think the shraeye wagon appeared solely due to town

raptor nails him with the result

votes for raptor, tries to float the idea of lynching outside the conflictees

says eevee is most likely scum

self hammer
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1046 on: November 12, 2019, 04:19:20 pm »

So raerae, and others who feel similarly, just for fun, let's pretend that I AM town (because, you know, I am). What do you think of my analysis? Who do you think is scum? Do you agree Eevee looks the worst of anyone on my wagon?

PPE: A novel by Eevee
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1047 on: November 12, 2019, 04:22:29 pm »

On my phone, gotta lazy quote this, how would MiX know joth would do anything specific?

"Just so people aren't surprised if I mentioned "only these people voted in this time period" and someone says "but you did"." - curious post considering mix would know joth is scum and will fakeclaim. kind of brazen if that's the case"
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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1048 on: November 12, 2019, 04:26:23 pm »

Happy birthday LL!

Takeaways from the Mix reread:

He mentions joth A LOT. Like, just about as often as all the other players combined. There are votes all over the place, and because he was switching so frequently, it's hard to say which one's actually matter because sometimes they stick only for hours or minutes. It is noticeable that if joth was scum, Mix definitely could have pushed for shraeye more before joth's claim. I would characterize Mix day 1 as not protecting or pushing joth, just jumping from shraeye to joth seemingly not caring which is the eventual lynch. It's hard to say what Mix was trying to do, he played so chaotic.

The only real cases besides the 15 flipflops on joth I see Mix having pushed are me and LaLight. Maybe generally the lurkers (Raptor, Galzria and LaLight) also. LL is my second strongest townread behind Raptor at this point.

Some light defending on Joseph, but they weren't high leverage moments.

Faust is another one with more interaction, multiple questions back and forth and the "don't lynch faust d1" comments.


All in all, I think joth looks townier from this, Joseph scummier, faust a little bit scummier, LL townier.



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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1049 on: November 12, 2019, 04:27:15 pm »

So raerae, and others who feel similarly, just for fun, let's pretend that I AM town (because, you know, I am). What do you think of my analysis? Who do you think is scum? Do you agree Eevee looks the worst of anyone on my wagon?

PPE: A novel by Eevee
What do you think about Mix's interactions with me before he got lynched? It would be easier for me to believe you were town if you weren't so  adamant about lynching me!
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