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Author Topic: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game Over - Mafia Wins!  (Read 151760 times)

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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1000 on: November 12, 2019, 05:56:18 am »

Although I wouldn't mind prolonging this day all the way to deadline, simply so the night time would be partially during my VLA this weekend

I feel like you're trying to bait people into getting cold feet and jumping off the wagon. Let's not do that!
Nope, I support the wagon 100%
But if it hammers now, D4 starts on Thursday and I'm away for half of it. Which sucks for me
Whereas if we lynch joth on Thursday, then I'm only way 1-2 days of D4
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1001 on: November 12, 2019, 05:56:37 am »

Woop woop, I'm reply #1000
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1002 on: November 12, 2019, 06:00:33 am »

This might not be very relevant currently, but faust and LL being two independently scummy people, I think there's a high probability exactly one of them is scum.

This looks like you know for sure.
I do not, and it’s not based on any power role results. They just seem to be really aggressively suspecting each other, where it would make sense that either is doing it to protect themself and to discredit their accuser.

Feeling pretty good that joth is scum after thinking about the game last night in bed. I’m fine with a hammer or fine with more talking.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1003 on: November 12, 2019, 06:29:23 am »

This might not be very relevant currently, but faust and LL being two independently scummy people, I think there's a high probability exactly one of them is scum.

This looks like you know for sure.
I do not, and it’s not based on any power role results. They just seem to be really aggressively suspecting each other, where it would make sense that either is doing it to protect themself and to discredit their accuser.

Feeling pretty good that joth is scum after thinking about the game last night in bed. I’m fine with a hammer or fine with more talking.
I agree that there's probably a scum in {LL, faust}. They don't seem towny to me and they also don't seem like they're on the same team
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1004 on: November 12, 2019, 06:30:02 am »

Vote: joth
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1005 on: November 12, 2019, 08:24:22 am »

Vote: joth

Isn't this your vote already?
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Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1006 on: November 12, 2019, 08:26:09 am »

Joth, have you given up on defending yourself at this point? I'm withholding my vote for you to speak up
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1007 on: November 12, 2019, 09:39:19 am »

Vote: joth

Isn't this your vote already?
It's a little trick that Joseph tries to pull every single time.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1008 on: November 12, 2019, 09:40:21 am »

is continuing to defend myself going to do any good?

I've never seen a town with their minds more made up.

Guess what, Joseph? Given up town is a thing too. In fact it's more of a thing. If I were scum right now, I'd be fighting tooth and nail. Y'all have seen me as caught scum, I do not go down easy. This is town joth who screwed up pretty bad who is basically resigned to the lynch, but is stopping short of actually self-hammering because he doesn't want to be anti-town.

I actually was hoping that last night I would have time to do some serious re-reading and try to build a good case on someone else. Unfortunately, do to real-world job burnout stuff, I just didn't have the time or energy. I actually had my phone out in bed working on a re-read when my wife took it out of my hands, replaced it with a book, and told me I would sleep better with less screens before bed. And, you know, she wasn't wrong.

I don't want to drag this out any more than y'all do. But I'm not scum. I can't promise I will get to my reread tonight either. But I'll try.

Again, in case you care at all after I flip, here's what I think about who is scum:

scummiest:
Eevee
Joseph

I'd buy as scum:
faust
Space
LaLight

null:
Maxford
Galzria

towniest:
Raptor
raerae

Don't be nasty, guys. You'll just feel shitty about it after I flip green.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1009 on: November 12, 2019, 09:42:21 am »

Galzria has been prodded 2 times. When can we expect a replacement or modkill?

6. A prod may be requested in the game thread by any player, after a player has gone 24 hours without posting in the game thread. Players are subject to replacement or Mod Killed after one prod.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1010 on: November 12, 2019, 10:05:27 am »

Galzria has been prodded 2 times. When can we expect a replacement or modkill?

6. A prod may be requested in the game thread by any player, after a player has gone 24 hours without posting in the game thread. Players are subject to replacement or Mod Killed after one prod.
This seems like an easy way for joth to survive today.... Mod kill ends the day, right?
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1011 on: November 12, 2019, 10:16:14 am »

Don't be nasty, guys. You'll just feel shitty about it after I flip green.
I don't think I have been nasty, if I have then I apologise
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1012 on: November 12, 2019, 10:33:18 am »

Galzria has been prodded 2 times. When can we expect a replacement or modkill?

6. A prod may be requested in the game thread by any player, after a player has gone 24 hours without posting in the game thread. Players are subject to replacement or Mod Killed after one prod.
This seems like an easy way for joth to survive today.... Mod kill ends the day, right?
Not usually, though it's really up to the mod and depends on the game state. I don't think we have an established protocol there.
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Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1013 on: November 12, 2019, 11:09:33 am »

is continuing to defend myself going to do any good?

I've never seen a town with their minds more made up.

Guess what, Joseph? Given up town is a thing too. In fact it's more of a thing. If I were scum right now, I'd be fighting tooth and nail. Y'all have seen me as caught scum, I do not go down easy. This is town joth who screwed up pretty bad who is basically resigned to the lynch, but is stopping short of actually self-hammering because he doesn't want to be anti-town.

I actually was hoping that last night I would have time to do some serious re-reading and try to build a good case on someone else. Unfortunately, do to real-world job burnout stuff, I just didn't have the time or energy. I actually had my phone out in bed working on a re-read when my wife took it out of my hands, replaced it with a book, and told me I would sleep better with less screens before bed. And, you know, she wasn't wrong.

I don't want to drag this out any more than y'all do. But I'm not scum. I can't promise I will get to my reread tonight either. But I'll try.

Again, in case you care at all after I flip, here's what I think about who is scum:

scummiest:
Eevee
Joseph

I'd buy as scum:
faust
Space
LaLight

null:
Maxford
Galzria

towniest:
Raptor
raerae

Don't be nasty, guys. You'll just feel shitty about it after I flip green.

Okay, I don't see why I would end the day sooner then. Part of my reason why I want to vote for you is for the value of information, so I suppose I can wait and see if you have time to do the re-reading you're mentioning.

Also, I'm curious about why you'd think Space might be scum.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1014 on: November 12, 2019, 11:22:40 am »

Oh, Request prod on Raptor

It would be nice to get the perspective of an IC before we lynch the player who might guarantee his survival.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1015 on: November 12, 2019, 11:24:20 am »

I'm used to Space being pretty aggressive in pursuing a case. But this game I'm picking up something from them, almost like they're forcing themselves to keep it light, to not go after anyone too hard. Maybe I'm imagining it, but I'm picking up a sort of low-level self-consciousness that I would expect from scum.

Space is very analytical and pretty confident in their ability to build a case against someone. When someone like that moves from "finding the truth" mode to "building an argument for my purposes, without regard for the truth" mode, they can very easily go full Robocop. So you would expect some artificial tempering, feigned unsureness, performative hedging.

You know Space pretty well -- do you see any of that from their play?
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1016 on: November 12, 2019, 11:25:25 am »

Faust has said joth is town, and tried to divert attention to other wagons instead. When we have an almost dead certain scum lynch with joth

PPE: 1

Seems like an effort in futility though. Surely scum!me would have seen that joth cannot be saved. [Cue the next step argument where I'm protecting scum!joth for the towncred.]
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1017 on: November 12, 2019, 11:27:50 am »

I'm used to Space being pretty aggressive in pursuing a case. But this game I'm picking up something from them, almost like they're forcing themselves to keep it light, to not go after anyone too hard. Maybe I'm imagining it, but I'm picking up a sort of low-level self-consciousness that I would expect from scum.
I've felt that Space is pushing harder than normal, actually. Can you say where you're picking this up from?
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1018 on: November 12, 2019, 11:33:38 am »

It's pretty pervasive. Here's a recent example:

Haha.. faust thinks Joth is town, and is now voting for Raerae?

I'm pretty sure Raerae is town, based on how much I agree with her voting history and general conduct.

I'm less sure about faust now, especially after the way he's engaged with me lately, but really I'd rather see Joth lynched first, because I think there's info to be gained from his flip.

I'm pretty sure, I'm less sure, I want this flip but for information...

Also, this thing from raerae is not nothing:

Gotta say, I don't love you setting me up for tomorrow for essentially having the same thoughts as you...

And Space backs off dramatically after raerae points it out. For the record, I do not think you should go after raerae after I flip town.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1019 on: November 12, 2019, 11:41:59 am »

I see. But not of that actually relates to the case on you, right? Space seems pretty adamant in that regard. That said, I didn't really understand what Space meant to express with that whole "I'm less sure about faust now" paragraph.
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Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1020 on: November 12, 2019, 12:26:50 pm »

I'm used to Space being pretty aggressive in pursuing a case. But this game I'm picking up something from them, almost like they're forcing themselves to keep it light, to not go after anyone too hard. Maybe I'm imagining it, but I'm picking up a sort of low-level self-consciousness that I would expect from scum.

Space is very analytical and pretty confident in their ability to build a case against someone. When someone like that moves from "finding the truth" mode to "building an argument for my purposes, without regard for the truth" mode, they can very easily go full Robocop. So you would expect some artificial tempering, feigned unsureness, performative hedging.

You know Space pretty well -- do you see any of that from their play?

I know real life Space, and I've never seen them playing a mafia-like game before. I can see Space being very analytical and pretty confident, but what if there is less information to analyse in this game than in other mafia games? They've kept repeating that we can't really make any inference based on the wagons, but I'm not sure if that's true or just a convenient claim to avoid doing this type of analysis.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1021 on: November 12, 2019, 01:13:12 pm »

Okay, I don't see why I would end the day sooner then. Part of my reason why I want to vote for you is for the value of information, so I suppose I can wait and see if you have time to do the re-reading you're mentioning.

I like the way you're just innocently calling his bluff here :-P

Waiting for the IC to weigh in is a perfectly reasonable, if that's a thing you want to wait for. However, if you're with the rest of us and think that Joth is really likely to be scum, then it's also quite a good thing just to get the hammer done before other people get cold feet, or before scum baits people into switching.

Raptor has already said he didn't have another shot, so I don't think we can expect any more last-minute PR info to assist us. And we're not waiting for Joth to claim anything more, since he did all that D1.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1022 on: November 12, 2019, 01:31:44 pm »

They've kept repeating that we can't really make any inference based on the wagons, but I'm not sure if that's true or just a convenient claim to avoid doing this type of analysis.

I can made weak inferences, and I'm acting on them, but there isn't anything I can weave into an airtight case, if that makes sense.

I think my response to Galz's wagon analysis at #811 should have told you that I know what I'm looking at on the wagons, and that I had doubts about the conclusions. I do actually agree that there's a strong chance of at least one scum in {faust, Joseph}, for instance, and some of the evidence for that comes from the Shraeye wagon.

As for other wagons, I'd really like to know for sure that Joth flips scum before reading other stuff into them. It would be the icing on the cake if he flips any kind of scum cop role.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1023 on: November 12, 2019, 01:40:27 pm »

Sorry all!
MOD had a busy couple days. I will start to look for a replacement now, in case that needs to happen.

Additionally, Raptor has been prodded. 
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 3
« Reply #1024 on: November 12, 2019, 01:54:17 pm »

Oh, Request prod on Raptor

It would be nice to get the perspective of an IC before we lynch the player who might guarantee his survival.

Give me the afternoon, Yesterday was holiday is the states and I was in the city with family. I had less time then I though.
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