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Author Topic: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game Over - Mafia Wins!  (Read 151764 times)

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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #350 on: October 25, 2019, 08:14:25 am »

Vote: Galzria
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #351 on: October 25, 2019, 08:56:16 am »

Sorry, folks, I've got exactly this much brain power left after today:

Ruling player A or player B out because historically they play well late game if they survive that long if they're town *insert additional qualifiers here* is some straight nonsense dangerous thinking. Anybody leaning so hard on that they aren't willing to entertain the possibility of lynching A or B is getting all my suspicion.

What are you referring to exactly? I think the line of reasoning that was going on with Space's pass for faust was that scum!faust would be as much an asset for town as would town!faust be, not that town!faust would be a great asset to have late game.

faust and Joseph are both getting no lunch passes and I just can't get behind that regardless of the player, regardless of the reason. A newbie D1 pass barely cuts mustard for me so saying somebody might be useful or we'll totally, definitely, absolutely know their alignment later so we should lunch elsewhere makes my eyes roll straight out of my head. I think it's an easy position for scum to hide behind whether to score points with town, to keep their buddies alive, or to simply look like they're making a stand but putting no effort behind it.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #352 on: October 25, 2019, 08:56:31 am »

Does anyone have a post counting app? Just curious to find out who's not contributing
That really doesn't require an app, just view all and Ctrl+F the players to see how many posts they have.
Doesn't work on mobile that easily. And 90+% of my posting is from mobile

Ppe:1
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #353 on: October 25, 2019, 08:57:27 am »

Sorry, folks, I've got exactly this much brain power left after today:

Ruling player A or player B out because historically they play well late game if they survive that long if they're town *insert additional qualifiers here* is some straight nonsense dangerous thinking. Anybody leaning so hard on that they aren't willing to entertain the possibility of lynching A or B is getting all my suspicion.

What are you referring to exactly? I think the line of reasoning that was going on with Space's pass for faust was that scum!faust would be as much an asset for town as would town!faust be, not that town!faust would be a great asset to have late game.

faust and Joseph are both getting no lunch passes and I just can't get behind that regardless of the player, regardless of the reason. A newbie D1 pass barely cuts mustard for me so saying somebody might be useful or we'll totally, definitely, absolutely know their alignment later so we should lunch elsewhere makes my eyes roll straight out of my head. I think it's an easy position for scum to hide behind whether to score points with town, to keep their buddies alive, or to simply look like they're making a stand but putting no effort behind it.
I also have no idea why I'm getting one, and why people think I'm useful the more the game goes on. The mind boggles.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #354 on: October 25, 2019, 09:00:48 am »

Sorry, folks, I've got exactly this much brain power left after today:

Ruling player A or player B out because historically they play well late game if they survive that long if they're town *insert additional qualifiers here* is some straight nonsense dangerous thinking. Anybody leaning so hard on that they aren't willing to entertain the possibility of lynching A or B is getting all my suspicion.

What are you referring to exactly? I think the line of reasoning that was going on with Space's pass for faust was that scum!faust would be as much an asset for town as would town!faust be, not that town!faust would be a great asset to have late game.

faust and Joseph are both getting no lunch passes and I just can't get behind that regardless of the player, regardless of the reason. A newbie D1 pass barely cuts mustard for me so saying somebody might be useful or we'll totally, definitely, absolutely know their alignment later so we should lunch elsewhere makes my eyes roll straight out of my head. I think it's an easy position for scum to hide behind whether to score points with town, to keep their buddies alive, or to simply look like they're making a stand but putting no effort behind it.

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #355 on: October 25, 2019, 09:18:57 am »

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

But Joseph isn't good scum, he's just someone that is much easier to read as the game progresses. And is almost always scummy D1. Maybe I'm biased since I've been in Speccy during the games I would quote as examples, but still.

Lynching faust D1 is just a mistake. That reminds me I need to actually read his scum game, I don't think I ever got around to it last time I said this.
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Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #356 on: October 25, 2019, 09:40:53 am »

I’m not going to be very available until sunday.

Everyone but Maxford feels scummy. Shraeye (or as my phone would have it, she eye) little bit towny too.

What's motivating your read on Shraeye?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #357 on: October 25, 2019, 09:53:24 am »

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

But Joseph isn't good scum, he's just someone that is much easier to read as the game progresses. And is almost always scummy D1. Maybe I'm biased since I've been in Speccy during the games I would quote as examples, but still.

Lynching faust D1 is just a mistake. That reminds me I need to actually read his scum game, I don't think I ever got around to it last time I said this.
I haven't been scum on here for over 2 years. Good reason to assume I'm town
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Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #358 on: October 25, 2019, 10:04:29 am »

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #359 on: October 25, 2019, 10:12:09 am »

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

But Joseph isn't good scum, he's just someone that is much easier to read as the game progresses. And is almost always scummy D1. Maybe I'm biased since I've been in Speccy during the games I would quote as examples, but still.

Lynching faust D1 is just a mistake. That reminds me I need to actually read his scum game, I don't think I ever got around to it last time I said this.

So Joseph just pointed out he hasn't been scum for two years.  Why do you believe he's bad at scum when you don't have a recent example?
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #360 on: October 25, 2019, 10:12:52 am »

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz

Is the entirety of the Galz case just that he's lurking?
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #361 on: October 25, 2019, 10:15:19 am »

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

But Joseph isn't good scum, he's just someone that is much easier to read as the game progresses. And is almost always scummy D1. Maybe I'm biased since I've been in Speccy during the games I would quote as examples, but still.

Lynching faust D1 is just a mistake. That reminds me I need to actually read his scum game, I don't think I ever got around to it last time I said this.

So Joseph just pointed out he hasn't been scum for two years.  Why do you believe he's bad at scum when you don't have a recent example?

I remember reading a game where he was scum, and he was only okay, compared to how obv!town he was when he was town in the games I've played.

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz

Is the entirety of the Galz case just that he's lurking?

Yes. Where are you voting and what's your case?
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #362 on: October 25, 2019, 10:20:19 am »

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

But Joseph isn't good scum, he's just someone that is much easier to read as the game progresses. And is almost always scummy D1. Maybe I'm biased since I've been in Speccy during the games I would quote as examples, but still.

Lynching faust D1 is just a mistake. That reminds me I need to actually read his scum game, I don't think I ever got around to it last time I said this.

So Joseph just pointed out he hasn't been scum for two years.  Why do you believe he's bad at scum when you don't have a recent example?

I remember reading a game where he was scum, and he was only okay, compared to how obv!town he was when he was town in the games I've played.

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz

Is the entirety of the Galz case just that he's lurking?

Yes. Where are you voting and what's your case?

1) When you reread old games do you know the outcome and teams prior to starting your read?
2) But why Galz?  There more than one lurker.
2a) #243 & #247
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #363 on: October 25, 2019, 10:35:47 am »

1) Pretty much always, yeah. I can already hear the response to this in the air, but hey, this method has worked so far, I have no regrets.

2) Cause joth voted Galz. LL is another great wagon, but it's small right now, not very useful to be voting there.

2a) Thank you and...I think I agree with Eevee, you jumped too fast on too little. Don't think that's good enough of a case IMO.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #364 on: October 25, 2019, 10:42:39 am »

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

But Joseph isn't good scum, he's just someone that is much easier to read as the game progresses. And is almost always scummy D1. Maybe I'm biased since I've been in Speccy during the games I would quote as examples, but still.

Lynching faust D1 is just a mistake. That reminds me I need to actually read his scum game, I don't think I ever got around to it last time I said this.

So Joseph just pointed out he hasn't been scum for two years.  Why do you believe he's bad at scum when you don't have a recent example?

I remember reading a game where he was scum, and he was only okay, compared to how obv!town he was when he was town in the games I've played.

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz

Is the entirety of the Galz case just that he's lurking?

Yes. Where are you voting and what's your case?
In fairness, thinking about it, there was 1 game a few months back where i was (terrible) scum,  maybe it's that one....

Although all of this feels like "white knighting" (for anyone who doesn't know the terminology, that's a scum player accusing a town player of being good to try and improve their street cred) to me

Vote: mix
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #365 on: October 25, 2019, 10:43:24 am »

1) Pretty much always, yeah. I can already hear the response to this in the air, but hey, this method has worked so far, I have no regrets.

2) Cause joth voted Galz. LL is another great wagon, but it's small right now, not very useful to be voting there.

2a) Thank you and...I think I agree with Eevee, you jumped too fast on too little. Don't think that's good enough of a case IMO.

I don't understand how you have so much confidence in something that is confirmation bias at it's most extreme but this weirdly helps me understand you better.  This is uncharted territory and I need a moment.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #366 on: October 25, 2019, 11:05:12 am »

I’m not going to be very available until sunday.

Everyone but Maxford feels scummy. Shraeye (or as my phone would have it, she eye) little bit towny too.

What seems towny to you about shraeye?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #367 on: October 25, 2019, 11:15:25 am »

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz

Is the entirety of the Galz case just that he's lurking?

I'm listening to Joth. And that he's not doing the work that he normally does (consequence of lurking, I guess, but when he does post its less insightful).  There seem to be a handful of folks who are not as they usually are. He's one of them. MiX is still my preference, but no one else seems interested...
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #368 on: October 25, 2019, 11:24:18 am »

faust and Joseph are both getting no lunch passes and I just can't get behind that regardless of the player, regardless of the reason. A newbie D1 pass barely cuts mustard for me so saying somebody might be useful or we'll totally, definitely, absolutely know their alignment later so we should lunch elsewhere makes my eyes roll straight out of my head. I think it's an easy position for scum to hide behind whether to score points with town, to keep their buddies alive, or to simply look like they're making a stand but putting no effort behind it.

I agree with raerae 100% here. It's bad policy. And also it balances out, right? Good town players tend to be good scum players. So if someone gives us a +100 advantage by being around in the late game as town, they also give us a -100 advantage by being around in the late game as scum.

I mostly disagree with raerae, and I've already argued with someone (Galz, I think.. who's now your leading scum candidate?) about why I don't think "hiding behind" is something it's fair to characterise me as doing with my D1-pass list at least. Not sure where to Joseph D1 pass thing came from.. was it MiX? That's not something I'd ever advocate for.

As for town utility, no I completely disagree that it's symmetric, and that's a really key part of my heuristic. Faust, or anyone else known for logical inference (MiX is strong on this, and I expect Maxford will be) can't really twist things too far without it being possible for one of the rest of us in the maths corner to feel like something is up, so he has to keep posting town-useful content even as scum. Yes, maybe he can mastermind even more devious plans over in the scum QT, but he's going to be limited to whatever his buddies can help him orchestrate. So if late-town!faust gives +100, I think late-scum!faust still has to give +50, even if he's also able to give -50 behind the scenes by telling scum how to act, assuming he's got obedient scumbuddies who're willing to take cues from him. In comparison, a late-town!lurker might only give us +5, but the same player might give a consistent -5 as scum, so overall they're the better candidate for town to lynch when we just can't tell the difference between them and faust.

I guess all this boils down to the question of how much we believe that on D1 we have little info. I came at my personal D1-pass list from the point of view of all other things being equal. I think you and Raerae, and a few other players, are much more sensitive to tone reads and that sort of thing than I am, so perhaps for you there's a lot more separating the field than there is for me. So I don't mind being questioned and kept in check so people are sure I'm not scum hiding behind a list, but I do mind being scumread by default, or accused of playing eye-rollingly badly, for admitting to using heuristics to get through the game opening.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #369 on: October 25, 2019, 11:25:43 am »

I still feel like MiX is off, but when I was writing up my example about what Galzy wasn’t doing, I thought it would be okay to move there because he’s more absent than usual. I know life and other games and stuff, but...

Vote: Galz

Is the entirety of the Galz case just that he's lurking?

I'm listening to Joth. And that he's not doing the work that he normally does (consequence of lurking, I guess, but when he does post its less insightful).  There seem to be a handful of folks who are not as they usually are. He's one of them. MiX is still my preference, but no one else seems interested...

I'm pretty much scumreading Joth. And Galz is voting for Joth, so he's at least a bit engaged :-) Are there any non-lurker-related reasons to think Galz is a baddie?
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #370 on: October 25, 2019, 11:39:45 am »

In fairness, thinking about it, there was 1 game a few months back where i was (terrible) scum,  maybe it's that one....

Although all of this feels like "white knighting" (for anyone who doesn't know the terminology, that's a scum player accusing a town player of being good to try and improve their street cred) to me

Vote: mix

That must've been the game I read then.

Your vote is terrible. You're actually being towny, and there's no way I'm accepting a towny Joseph to be lynched. It's just pointless and a regression of your meta. Voting me for saying this is paranoia.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #371 on: October 25, 2019, 12:34:40 pm »


I'm listening to Joth. And that he's not doing the work that he normally does (consequence of lurking, I guess, but when he does post its less insightful).  There seem to be a handful of folks who are not as they usually are. He's one of them. MiX is still my preference, but no one else seems interested...

I'm pretty much scumreading Joth. And Galz is voting for Joth, so he's at least a bit engaged :-) Are there any non-lurker-related reasons to think Galz is a baddie?
[/quote]

Ha! We are pretty much at opposite orientations right now...I trust Joth for the time being. As for the Galz vote, I said that I don't think he is doing the kind of work that he normally does. Could be reasons for that, but one of them is that he's scum.  Admittedly, it is not some kind of awesome case with pages of support, but that doesn't really exist for anyone right now and even if it did it, still might be town. 
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #372 on: October 25, 2019, 12:37:56 pm »

I'm listening to Joth. And that he's not doing the work that he normally does (consequence of lurking, I guess, but when he does post its less insightful).  There seem to be a handful of folks who are not as they usually are. He's one of them. MiX is still my preference, but no one else seems interested...

I'm pretty much scumreading Joth. And Galz is voting for Joth, so he's at least a bit engaged :-) Are there any non-lurker-related reasons to think Galz is a baddie?

Ha! We are pretty much at opposite orientations right now...I trust Joth for the time being. As for the Galz vote, I said that I don't think he is doing the kind of work that he normally does. Could be reasons for that, but one of them is that he's scum.  Admittedly, it is not some kind of awesome case with pages of support, but that doesn't really exist for anyone right now and even if it did it, still might be town.

EBWOP: Quote fail again.  I blame my phone.  Sorry, yall
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #373 on: October 25, 2019, 01:16:37 pm »

This situation is such a mess. I voted Galz for the flimsiest justification that I like Maxford and I want to sheep his read. And then MiX and Didds vote Galz because I'm voting Galz, even though MiX was scumreading me fairly recently. Is it just me, or do Didds and MiX look bad here?

Everyone's being lazy (except Maxford I guess). The only person I'm hard townreading right now is raerae, tbh. She is playing her town meta to a T.

The non-lazy thing would be to actually, like, do some re-reading and look for a solid case. That's probably the sort of thing people who think I usually work harder than this are waiting for me to do. And honestly it probably is the next thing I'm going to do. Just not sure when I'll have time. When is deadline?

I know this will probably strike some people as scummy, but I don't think the people scumreading me are scummy for it. I think if I were not me and were watching my play today I'd be scumreading me too. All the points are valid. They just happen to be wrong.

Didds is always a coin flip read for me. I've rarely seen her be scum. But her town meta is pretty scum-friendly and easily imitated. So I never have confidence that she's town, which is often a bummer because she always seems to have this high confidence that I'm town. But the fact that she's townreading me so hard right now when I don't really deserve it... I don't like it.

MiX, on the other hand, is being inconsistent, is posting a lot without saying a ton, is throwing a lot of spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks... I think this is town!MiX. It seems par for the course for him and it's the sort of behavior that consistently gets him almost mislynched on day 1.

I'm not ready to vote for WCD yet (maybe because her buddying is super-effective). I'll leave my vote on Galz for now, but will hopefully come out of a re-read with a real case. People should hopefully know that generally when I promise a re-read I do deliver.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #374 on: October 25, 2019, 01:19:00 pm »

Ha! We are pretty much at opposite orientations right now...I trust Joth for the time being. As for the Galz vote, I said that I don't think he is doing the kind of work that he normally does. Could be reasons for that, but one of them is that he's scum.  Admittedly, it is not some kind of awesome case with pages of support, but that doesn't really exist for anyone right now and even if it did it, still might be town.

Do we have any evidence that scum!Galz is lurky? Because I can't see that 5 game posts gives him all that much chance to do anything.

Hey @Maxford, if you're taking MiX's advice and reading old stuff, can you keep a look out for this? I'm terrible at reading old games because I'm such a slow reader :-P

Most of Galz's five posts were about disagreeing with me over my D1 list, and then there's one ~70 posts later where he votes for Joth. That really feels a lot more like someone who doesn't have time to keep up than someone who's strategically lurking because he thinks it benefits the scumteam.
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