http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120312-191203-915ad30b.html My opponent did seem to have some bad luck with his draws early on. And I was playing against a very strong opponent; if he started with Chapel, then that was probably the right move to make.
What you do think? Was I right to ignore Chapel, or not?
Firstly, I'm flattered to hear that you think of me as a "very strong opponent".
Secondly, Robz888 brings up my main defense: If outpost wasn't on the board, Salvager would 100% be the right choice.
Since outpost was on the board, though, I would argue that Chapel is superior under similar luck conditions. Salvager's trashing helps get the minions going a bit more quickly, but leaves a much thicker deck than chapel. Outpost in a Minion-Chapel game is much more likely to hit a double province turn than outpost-salvager, simply because you need a high density of minions to ensure that you get anything out of the Outpost turn.
Additionally, I think that Outpost makes up for Salvagers +Buy-> peddler effects: Early on, when you can't buy a province/minion from an outpost, its likely if you played enough minions peddler will be at 0$ or 2$
My ranking of minion decks for this supply would be:
Chapel/Outpost>Salvager/Outpost>Salvager>Chapel, with there being only a very slightly advantage to chapel/outpost over salvager/outpost.
Regardless, you played your strategy perfectly and I'm pretty sure my T-11 outpost was too late, so you deserved the win even with the shuffles.
Also, a mistake you avoided that someone in an earlier post made: Caravan is really only a 4$ consolation prize here if you aren't playing outpost. Peddler is superior to Caravan whenever peddler is 4$-
Edit: Also, Risingjaguar is correct in that it's nice for the chapel guy to pick up a salvager at some point. I should have done this either on T8 or T12