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[Awaclus]

joth, this is the plurality thing everyone's talking about:

...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.

[MiX]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?

In another topic, I’m locked in a pitched battle between my old “always suspect Robz day 1” meta and my new “always suspect MiX day 1” meta.

The easy answer is always assume we're in a team. At least that's what I'm doing.

joth, this is the plurality thing everyone's talking about:

...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.

Yes.

[MiX]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

[jotheonah]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?

Well no. I’m an English major. Someone mathy should check my math. It’s fairly straightforward conditional probability. Oh shoot, no I did it wrong again.

Town v town: 60.4%
Town v scum: 36.4%
Scum v scum: 3.2%

[Awaclus]

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town

What?

[jotheonah]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.

[jotheonah]

I’m pretty sure that latest math is right.
11/14 x 10/13 to get the town v town probability, 3/14 x 2/13 to get the scum probability, then just subtracted those from 100 to get town v scum.

[mcmcsalot]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.

Yea I did that in a few of my attempts at odds calculations, then I gave up. The fact that MiX things this is a townslip is hilarious. MiX how long do you think about your posts before posting them?

[Glooble]

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?

Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.

b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.


---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.

This post is sort of null on the balance-  he starts with "100%, inarguably wrong" but then follows it up with a post that sort of presents the arguments for and against, so its hardly "unarguable". But that kind of bold, black and white statement feels to me like scum!swan trying to get town points by taking a strong stance. Then bullet point b is just a lot of talking without saying much of anything, which is scummy. I will give Swan town points for point C though, it's a good point and not something I would necessarily bring up as scum.

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

This was the post that felt really scummy to me. I think it's just the way he's setting up expectations for exactly how he thinks scum will play it. Maybe so he can act differently and then use his theory for how scum would play to defend his play/ his teammates' play as townie? I don't know, it's not a strong case, he just feels off to me.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, 0Ix, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.

I am voting Pubby

Corrected

[MiX]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.

Yea I did that in a few of my attempts at odds calculations, then I gave up. The fact that MiX things this is a townslip is hilarious. MiX how long do you think about your posts before posting them?

Scum knows there's a JK. Meh.

I think about 1 minute for posts, maybe more if I'm making a case or I've been thinking about something for a while (and when writing the post I'll think more to see if I explained myself clearly or if I missed something).


Interesting post by Glooble.

[mcmcsalot]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?

Well no. I’m an English major. Someone mathy should check my math. It’s fairly straightforward conditional probability. Oh shoot, no I did it wrong again.

Town v town: 60.4%
Town v scum: 36.4%
Scum v scum: 3.2%

I'm just a business major and my wife is a doctor, between the two of us and these percentages check out. We even did town v scum the hard way and it matches.

Show your work!

T1 0.7857142857142857
M1 0.2142857142857143

Conditions 1 Town roll 1
C1T2 0.7692307692307692
C1M2 0.2307692307692308

Condition 2 Mafia roll 1
C2T2 0.8461538461538462
C2M2 0.1538461538461538

Town V Town
(T1*C1T2) = 0.6043956043956044

Town V Mafia
((T1*C1M2)+(M1*C2T2)) = 0.1813186813186813+0.1813186813186813= 0.3626373626373626

Mafia V Mafia
(M1*C2M2) = 0.032967032967033

[jotheonah]

Third time’s the charm I guess.

I’m gonna be honest, I don’t hate the pubby case.

vote: pubby

[MiX]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

[mcmcsalot]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

[2.71828.....]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.

I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.

[2.71828.....]

Let's try unexplained votes.

Vote: Glooble

I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case

[MiX]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

But then scum can change their opinion after voting.

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.

I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.

Yeah I then realized that...but then I felt like scumreading that part for a different reason so I didn't feel like pointing it out.

[mcmcsalot]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

But then scum can change their opinion after voting.

And because you have eyes and a brain you can see that inconsistency thus finding scum. Could we let scum make mistakes on their own or are you so fearful they might trick you that we should make all information public...

[2.71828.....]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

But then scum can change their opinion after voting.

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.

I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.

Yeah I then realized that...but then I felt like scumreading that part for a different reason so I didn't feel like pointing it out.

So you admit to overlooking townier parts of a person's play to emphasize a scummy area to try to push a lynch through?  Tunneling 101.

And town read on MiX.  This is classic town!MiX here.

[Robz888]

I agree with Joseph the most, so that’s something.

[Robz888]

I honestly don’t care about the percentages, because we just obviously should duel no matter what.

[Swowl]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

I don’t know what this is referring to.

[MiX]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

I don’t know what this is referring to.

Nothing. But then I also scumread the quoted part for another reason, so...

[Joseph2302]

I honestly don’t care about the percentages, because we just obviously should duel no matter what.

Exactly. Because even with the percentages, it doesn't take into account the benefit of getting a PR.
So if you were doing the stats properly, it should be expected values rather than probabilities, to work out the expected value/cost of duelling

But please don't try and do that people