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[EFHW]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

Those questions are important mostly for scum.

Scum already know joth's alignment.

[Debatepro]

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph
4. Joth
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

[jotheonah]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now. Glad we averted a nightkill somehow, but majorly second-guessing all my reads in light of the Glooble thing. Need to re-read.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now.

Vote for robz

[Awaclus]

Scum already know joth's alignment.

They don't know what we think of it.

[Joseph2302]

So no NK presumably means that it was blocked
So either our JK stopped it, or the one shot PR had some role block/defending ability

[jotheonah]

So no NK presumably means that it was blocked
So either our JK stopped it, or the one shot PR had some role block/defending ability

or the jk was the target. our jk has a 1-shot passive bulletproof.

Joseph gets townpoints for forgetting about that though.

[Awaclus]

Joseph gets townpoints for forgetting about that though.

Why? It's trivial for scum to know about the BP but choose not to say it.

[2.71828.....]

It's a one shot power. There is a limited list of PRs that really work with that: cop, doc, tracker, vig, BP, etc.

I think scum knows the PR will always be bad for them (unless it is like a vig and town kills town... But given the setup I doubt vig is on the list).

The only real consideration that needs to be had is if the we think the PR went to town with a true result/action or scum with a fake one.

But it should be claimed. Acknowledge that some results don't actually mean a whole lot (tracker for example has limited utility with 3 scum alive) but the data point is important for town.

[Joseph2302]

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

[Joseph2302]

Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)

And if he's scum, this is good information.

Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today

[Debatepro]

Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)

And if he's scum, this is good information.

Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today

1. Scum killing Joth doesn’t make sense to me. He was the alternative to Glooble and this a good candidate for a mislynch if he was Town.
2. If Joth was the JK, I don’t think he so visibly makes the D1 case against Glooble. That had the huge potential of backfiring and drawing mislynch attention.

[Debatepro]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now.

Vote for robz

What are your thoughts on:
1. Duel result, voters for Glooble, abstainers
2. Absence of a NK
3. Joseph’s claim and result

Who are the players on your list as potential scum?

[jotheonah]

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

Guess what? You have!

[jotheonah]

I was feeling so good about getting out of that duel alive too. I guess I might as well claim my targets?

[Joseph2302]

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

Guess what? You have!

Least surprising claim ever

[jotheonah]

*alive and unclaimed.

Damn, like, I don’t think you misplayed here but this is super-unfortunate all around.

[jotheonah]

I just landed from the worst red eye ever, after a five-hour delay, so I’m not in the best mental space to make my claim. I didn’t breadcrumb but being JK was the real reason for my D1 yes vote. I decided that a duel would be good since it would guarantee I wouldn’t die and as the only PR that felt significant — in effect, the duel would have eliminated the worst case scenario, the lynch of our only full-time PR.

But that put me in a tough position because I had publicly backed both vote claiming and no-voting. So I had to make up a reason, which was sheeping Glooble’s case, which of course turned out to not even be on one of the people in the duel!

[jotheonah]

I didn’t want to lie as town at least about my vote so I had to tell a half-truth.

My case on Glooble was 100% sincere at the time. I think I’m retrospect it’s easy to say a PR shouldn’t put himself out there like that, but before I did it I did not think it would be received the way it was! I was making a case, figures it would either gain traction or not

[jotheonah]

2. If Joth was the JK, I don’t think he so visibly makes the D1 case against Glooble. That had the huge potential of backfiring and drawing mislynch attention.

Also I made this exact case yesterday only as a case for why I couldn’t be scum, so you really can’t have it both ways.

[jotheonah]

I targeted ADK night 1 and Swan night 2.

[Robz888]

I guess we should all acknowledge that he have consumed this news, on the off chance we have some other JK claim.

[Joseph2302]

Yes i have. Ffs i really hope joth is lying

I was sure my result meant joth was scum, it's really shit if I've outed our only PR

OTOH, if joth is telling the truth, then swan is scum? As JK blocked the scum from killing? Unless of course scum shot joth (but people said that was less likely)

[jotheonah]

Swan could also have been the NK target. I basically have been using my power as more of a doctor for the early game for mathy reasons.

Basically, with no other PRs in play, a major downside of jailkeeping townreads goes away.

If you JK scum, EVEN IF YOU’RE RIGHT, it has a 2/3 chance of not doing anything. Whereas if you JK town, all you have to do is correctly ID the nightkill, which seemed a lot easier. And the upside is that if your townread IS scum they’re probably among the best hidden scum and therefore the most likely to be doing the kill. The downside is you get less info from targeting townreads in a way.

So yeah. Swan is either scum or scum targeted him (or they targeted me). ADK is either town or scum who didn’t happen to do the kill.

[2.71828.....]

Yeah, interesting situation.

The person I actually trust the most in this situation is Joseph. Scum don't actually get to use the PR, and to out the JK as scum just doesn't happen here.

But then for joth we need to wait for everyone to show up, and with no counter claim then I trust him as well.

Which then points suspicion to Datswan with the missing NK.