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[silverspawn]

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over so early that it would be asinine to take it seriously was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

Aside from my red edit, sure, that makes sense. I didn't think that far when I made the reply.

So you're acknowledging that the comment that you yourself said "Couldn't possibly be good for town" as actually good for town?

Yes.

[silverspawn]

But we don't really make 2 ICs, we probably make 1 IC with the other being dead.

If the IC is being killed it has been useful because it prevented the death of a PR. I've said this in my post. If you want then the utility of the IC is decreased to the expected power of whatever other person mafia would kill. But it doesn't go to zero.

[silverspawn]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

[Glooble]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

Power roles don't matter if we've already lost the game.

[silverspawn]

Even if EFHW is town, scum!silverspawn could still have latched onto the "lynch in the hood" plan for the reasons I specified. In fact if the hood *is* all town, scum know this, and pushing for a hood lynch is an even better plan for them.

Is there anything at all that makes advocating for an in-neighborhood lynch different from generically advocating for a mislynch? I obviously want to lynch in-neighborhood after it's clear that the claim isn't happening, so those things aren't related.

[silverspawn]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

Power roles don't matter if we've already lost the game.

If you think PRs aren't important, then we should VT / nonVT claim immediately. The claim improves our chances of lynching scum at the cost of losing PRs.

[jotheonah]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

Power roles don't matter if we've already lost the game.

If you think PRs aren't important, then we should VT / nonVT claim immediately. The claim improves our chances of lynching scum at the cost of losing PRs.

The PGO is a power role that can only do its thing if it's not known by scum. It's also one of our most powerful PRs.

[silverspawn]

I hate to be the one to say it but, if we don't have broad consensus, is there any value in no lynch here? If we're at 7-5 now, that guarantees we don't lose tonight, and gives us a slightly smaller pool to choose from tomorrow and slightly more information.

The downside of a no-lynch is that we lose a lynch in case of a) town stopping the NK via roleblock or b) the PGO killing someone

[silverspawn]

The PGO is a power role that can only do its thing if it's not known by scum. It's also one of our most powerful PRs.

So let me summarize your position

– If we all claimed VT / non-VT, then scum would deliberately kill a VT because the danger of hitting the PGO is so great that it isn't worth taking the risk and lynching a VT is preferable
– Therefore, if mafia did target a PR tonight, it would be a good thing for us
– Even though a claim would not put any PR in danger due to the above, the downside of scum being able to avoid the PGO and kill a VT instead is, by itself, so great that it outweighs all benefits of a claim.

Is that correct?

[silverspawn]

where "lynching" in the first point should be "killing"

[Glooble]

Even if EFHW is town, scum!silverspawn could still have latched onto the "lynch in the hood" plan for the reasons I specified. In fact if the hood *is* all town, scum know this, and pushing for a hood lynch is an even better plan for them.

Is there anything at all that makes advocating for an in-neighborhood lynch different from generically advocating for a mislynch? I obviously want to lynch in-neighborhood after it's clear that the claim isn't happening, so those things aren't related.

Yes there is. If the scum don't know who the traitor is, they might accidentally lynch them. But they know for certain that the traitor isn't in the neighborhood.

[silverspawn]

Yes there is. If the scum don't know who the traitor is, they might accidentally lynch them. But they know for certain that the traitor isn't in the neighborhood.

Ah right, I forgot about the traitor. Fair enough.

[Glooble]

The PGO is a power role that can only do its thing if it's not known by scum. It's also one of our most powerful PRs.

So let me summarize your position

– If we all claimed VT / non-VT, then scum would deliberately kill a VT because the danger of hitting the PGO is so great that it isn't worth taking the risk and lynching a VT is preferable
– Therefore, if mafia did target a PR tonight, it would be a good thing for us
– Even though a claim would not put any PR in danger due to the above, the downside of scum being able to avoid the PGO and kill a VT instead is, by itself, so great that it outweighs all benefits of a claim.

Is that correct?

No it's not correct. I don't know how to make this clearer. If we claim PR/ not PR, scum can NK from the not PR group, thereby making them much more likely to have their kill go through. If we mislynch and we have a traitor or a survivor, that's probably game. The fact that they didn't kill any of our PRs in this scenario is completely irrelevant, because they just win.

[Glooble]

And this, incidentally, is why I think your shutting down of gkrieg's setup discussion was so scummy. All of your arguments would be completely sensible if we weren't potentially in MYLO. So it makes total sense for you, as scum, to encourage the town to think we have more time and more leeway then we actually have.

[silverspawn]

No it's not correct. I don't know how to make this clearer. If we claim PR/ not PR, scum can NK from the not PR group, thereby making them much more likely to have their kill go through.

This is what I said. So what about what I said isn't your position?

[Glooble]

Ok, sorry I misread. You basically have it right.

[Glooble]

I had another point about the potential for a scum roleblocker to target more effectively, but that doesn't actually make any sense since if they targeted from the claimed PR group they'd just risk hitting the PGO too.

[Glooble]

Where are the other 8 people in this town?

[MiX]

Where are the other 8 people in this town?

I'm thinking you just told traitor/third-party what to claim. Although you've been doing this for quite some time several times. Why? Is it so important that ss understands your setup talk?

[silverspawn]

Ok, sorry I misread. You basically have it right.

Ok, well you get town points for thinking something so weird.

[EFHW]

vote: ashersky

[silverspawn]

Let's get real for a moment though. I strongly suspect that mafia would kill among the non-VT claims if we did claim, because the risk of hitting the PGO is pretty small. I hope that most of you who oppose the claim did so because scum would just hit a PR anyway, and that you would support the massclaim if you knew that they rather kill a VT. In fact, if you think that it's a close call, then we definitely should have claimed. It's too late now, though.

The theory that I advocated for a massclaim so that mafia could kill a vT is absurd. I mean cmon.

[Glooble]

It's counterintuitive, but it's not absurd. It makes perfect sense if you're mafia and you plan on winning tonight.

[2.71828.....]

well, I didn't reread as much as I wanted prior to the day ending, and I will not be around tomorrow at deadline while at work.

I will be able to check in at lunch (about 3 hours before deadline) but I am comfortable with my EFHW vote for now.

[Glooble]

well, I didn't reread as much as I wanted prior to the day ending, and I will not be around tomorrow at deadline while at work.

I will be able to check in at lunch (about 3 hours before deadline) but I am comfortable with my EFHW vote for now.

Any thoughts on my silverspawn theory?