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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 157590 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1100 on: June 21, 2019, 12:26:59 pm »

living: Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

out of neighborhood: Glooble, MiX, jotheonah, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

minus me and Glooble (strong town read): MiX, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

These are the people I'd like to lynch today, and it's fully possible that all of them are scum.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1101 on: June 21, 2019, 12:29:13 pm »

Point being, for those of you who ARE town, POE is a very strong tool here. If you have even two town reads outside the neighborhood, then you have nearly called the scum team by default.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1102 on: June 21, 2019, 12:29:50 pm »

massclaim?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1103 on: June 21, 2019, 12:31:44 pm »

Point being, for those of you who ARE town, POE is a very strong tool here. If you have even two town reads outside the neighborhood, then you have nearly called the scum team by default.

So you are confident that there are no scum in the neighborhood?
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1104 on: June 21, 2019, 12:40:25 pm »

Point being, for those of you who ARE town, POE is a very strong tool here. If you have even two town reads outside the neighborhood, then you have nearly called the scum team by default.

So you are confident that there are no scum in the neighborhood?

Not at all— hence the nearly— but I’m sold on not lynching out of the neighborhood today. The math is even uglier than it was yesterday.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1105 on: June 21, 2019, 12:42:47 pm »

I would love it if we finally lynched MiX today. But I want to do a reread and see if a slam dunk case emerges.

But yeah, MiX continues to say things and jump to conclusions that are just a little off.

Gee, sorry for trying to get information from our situation and failing, I'll go back to panicking right away.

living: Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

out of neighborhood: Glooble, MiX, jotheonah, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

minus me and Glooble (strong town read): MiX, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

These are the people I'd like to lynch today, and it's fully possible that all of them are scum.

Of these, I want pps or pubby. They're probably both scum anyway. Okay let's reread.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1106 on: June 21, 2019, 12:43:33 pm »

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1107 on: June 21, 2019, 12:46:54 pm »

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

On the other hand, if we do have a tracker reporter the massclaim might allow them to negotiate with scum for a shared victory.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1108 on: June 21, 2019, 02:48:35 pm »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

MiX (2): pingpongsam, Debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (8): EFHW, MiX, pubby, A Drowned Kernel, Glooble, jotheonah, silverspawn, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

The debatepro wagon might be useful to analyze. It's got three flipped townies on it. If we take EFHW out of consideration for now it gives us [Mix, pubby, Glooble, joth]. Seems unlikely all of these people are town. I know I'm town, I think joth is... of this group I lynch MiX or pubby. This isn't that helpful though, since I was already scumreading both of them.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

mcmcsalot (7): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn, pingpongsam, MiX, ashersky, Glooble
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (1): jotheonah
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Only one flipped townie on this wagon.

Still alive on both the debatepro and mcmcsalot wagons: MiX and Glooble

On debate but not mcmcsalot: EFHW, pubby, joth

on mcmcsalot but not debate: gkrieg, DatSwan, pingpongsam, ashersky

on neither wagon: e


I have no idea what to do with this information.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1109 on: June 21, 2019, 02:53:25 pm »

honestly, this analysis makes me suspicious of e.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1110 on: June 21, 2019, 02:54:40 pm »

You should look at the ss "wagon", you'll get more information from it. Also pubby's wagon from D1.

Now my own information: in #218, there's 4 unflipped (EFHW, gkrieg, E, Glooble) voting for another (Swan). I don't know what this means, but I'm pretty sure there must be at least 1 scum on the wagon.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1111 on: June 21, 2019, 08:06:41 pm »

I just reread all of day 1 and boy are my eyes tired. But it was extremely informative. I'll post full reread notes below in case people want them, but here's the gist: If you consider that scum didn't want debate lynched because they thought he was the traitor, a reasonable assumption, then the end of Day 1 is extremely informative.

It's got me pretty convinced that pubby is town.

I still think MiX is scum, but he's the only one of my scumspects that doesn't fit this bill:

enthusiastically got on the pubby wagon but was nowhere to be found for the debatepro wagon. That's gkrieg and e.

Reread just the end of day 1. It will make things clear.

Other things worth looking at include #131, where MiX "calls" the scum team. If we assume he listed a mix of scum and town (no pun intended) then e and gkrieg (or me if you think I'm scum) have to be his partners.

popsquiz after day 1 reread

Scummy
gkrieg
e
MiX

Towny
pubby
pps
Glooble

Neighbors
DatSwan
ash
EFHW

I don't know who the 4th scum is. It's either Glooble or pps fooling me, or it's someone in the neighborhood, possibly DatSwan because of MiX's #242
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1112 on: June 21, 2019, 08:07:19 pm »

full notes if you wanna read:

mcmc’s proposed voting bloc, mcmc, ADK, and pps, is 2/3 town. If it’s all town, that supports my theory that MiX was scum trying to get into it in case it became important.

#104 Gkrieg votes for ash for not having a plan. reads as a lazy attempt to start a wagon. This is shortly after a vote on Eddie for “a lazy vote”. Nothing super scummy, but eager to start “real” voting.

#117 gkrieg points out that scum doesn’t have any control over whether we’re in Lylo day 2

“If you look at the setup, scum has no way of influencing this set of things to happen, so I don't know why it has any affect good or bad for town.

this is the sort of info scum is more likely to have at their fingertips than town…

As usual, my townread on Glooble is wavering a smidge on reread. He’s pretty pushy about wanting setup talk to happen in #120

#131 MiX “calls” the scum team

“Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.”

pretty sure if scum makes a list like this it’s some town some scum, and gkrieg and e are the only two on here that aren’t conf!scum to me

e turns up at #133. Late entry into the game is notable if Swan’s day chat theory is correct. content is null, but could read “forced jokey”

pubby shows up at #138 with a vote for PPS and an emoji and that’s it. also late entry.

#143 ADK says he has partner vibes on MiX and gkrieg, and honestly I kinda had the same thought on this reread.

Very little relevant participation from pps so far. Mostly talking about how MiX and himself are too similar. This convo is a little too cute and also gives me partner vibes.

Not focusing on ash this reread, but man I cannot figure him out.

Swan very late entry at #153

Actually both apps and e are uncharacteristic lucky this game. I buy day chat as an explanation

#187 e jumps on the opt to explain traitor to debatepro. It has been said that scum likes opportunities to post and be friendly and helpful without scumhunting.

then there’s this whole discussion about DatSwan mischaracterizing ash and the end result of it is that Glooble looks townie to me again

#224 is pubby’s second post of the game. he votes for me with slightly more words and just as little explanation. we should have policy lynched him day 1 for the way he’s playing

I still strongly dislike MiX’s #240, but now I’m wondering if it’s partner coaching

#242 MiX pretty strongly defends Swan in the face of not that many votes

pps’s non participation is almost too blatant to be scummy. scum at least tries to look like their scumhunting

#285 is hubby’s third post of the game. he has an explanation for his vote on me. it’s not very good or understandable

in #323 ADK town reads MiX but scum reads e, hubby, and gkrieg, especially gkrieg

#339 MiX starts the debatepro wagon with uncharacteristic commitment. Especially weirdly it doesn’t end with a vote. MiX, who votes as easily as he breathes and posts in fits and starts, writes a very long on and earnest case on a player and then doesn’t vote for them. If y’all don’t do anything else, read this post and tell me what you think of it.

EFHW’s vote on the debate wagon at #403 is a scummy spot to get on the wagon I think. sort of reviving/reminding people when it stalled, but not in a townie way.

#408 is pubby’s 4th post of the game. it’s a direct response to Glooble’s question about his vote on me. It ignores all the other things that are going on and it’s not even that interesting an answer.

MiX’s #425 makes it very unlikely, to me, that both MiX and pubby are scum. You don’t leave your vote on your partner when you leave for the night before deadline when it’s very unclear who’s going to be lynched. Of the two, pubby is the more likely town to me. 

Also, at the time, a lot of people were traitor-reading Debatepro, so it makes sense that scum would not want to plant their vote there, even though debate ended up being town. gkrieg also leaves his vote on pubby. same with e.

MiX comes back and re-ignites the debatepro wagon at #463. This admittedly does not fit with my narrative.

Also noteworthy, the pubby launch was derailed by UncleEurope and silver. So scum didn’t turn the wagon away from pubby, town did.

#482 and #483 are the pubby’s 5th and 6th posts of the game. He continues the conversation about his vote on me, and then jumps on the debatepro wagon, which in his case is pretty alignment-neutral

#510 made me chuckle


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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1113 on: June 21, 2019, 08:07:56 pm »

oh and vote: gkrieg

I may do a day 2 reread later this weekend, but I'm wiped out for tonight. That was legit like more than an hour of work.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1114 on: June 22, 2019, 02:02:09 am »

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

I love that hammer. Mcmc was super towny after D1 and it's a disgrace that we couldn't use it. Also we were between 2 town.

Scum killed ss because he's not third-party. In this glorious day we have a scum majority (since no SK).

We need a flawless town game from here on: it's offically worse than LyLo. I really wish I was scum.

Glooble's scum because everyone defended him and he feels guilt from a great hammer.

Vote: Glooble, can't bold just in case scum piles.

1) How was MCMC town after day 1?

2) How would skum know that SS was not third party?

3) Not really worse than lylo... I mean I kind of agree with you on assumption, but if the third party is a Survivor that wants town to win or they are the Researcher guy - I think it is just lylo?

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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1115 on: June 22, 2019, 02:03:38 am »

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

I was worried about this and have confirmed with MOD that if it was 5x Town vs 3x Mafia vs 2x Traitors that the game would continue today. I don't really understand it, but that was the response I got.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1116 on: June 22, 2019, 02:07:15 am »

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1117 on: June 22, 2019, 02:08:35 am »

I did not have time to finishing reading back yet after the SS flip. I will do it soon and get back, but I am pretty certain the play adds up with Joth's math in regards to looking outside the hood. I am gonna try to narrow it in more than that.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1118 on: June 22, 2019, 05:09:18 am »

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

By the way, survivor's always a neighbor, so ss couldn't possibly be a survivor.

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

I love that hammer. Mcmc was super towny after D1 and it's a disgrace that we couldn't use it. Also we were between 2 town.

Scum killed ss because he's not third-party. In this glorious day we have a scum majority (since no SK).

We need a flawless town game from here on: it's offically worse than LyLo. I really wish I was scum.

Glooble's scum because everyone defended him and he feels guilt from a great hammer.

Vote: Glooble, can't bold just in case scum piles.

1) How was MCMC town after day 1?

2) How would skum know that SS was not third party?

3) Not really worse than lylo... I mean I kind of agree with you on assumption, but if the third party is a Survivor that wants town to win or they are the Researcher guy - I think it is just lylo?

1) Just look at pretty much everyone's reads D1: Mcmc was essencially regarded as town by everyone. I can't really say more than that because I would be lying if I said I remember why mcmc was towny.

2) SS's not the type of person to pick traitor and say "I'm not third-party". Especially the first part. Otherwise maybe scum had a non-PGO read on him.

3) It's worse because if there's 2 Traitors then there's exactly one scenario where we can win, so maybe we're in that scenario. If we're not then you're right in that it's a very weird LyLo situation, but not worse than it.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1119 on: June 22, 2019, 08:15:43 am »

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1120 on: June 22, 2019, 08:18:26 am »

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

I love it, but I can't say much because I'm incredibly biased. I would vote e/gkrieg but half of the statements are about things I said so it wouldn't make much sense.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1121 on: June 22, 2019, 08:21:56 am »

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

I love it, but I can't say much because I'm incredibly biased. I would vote e/gkrieg but half of the statements are about things I said so it wouldn't make much sense.

The most important part, the end of the day case, works even if you’re town. In fact it works better if you’re town. A part of me actually thinks you’re the traitor, but then I have to rescind a bunch of other stuff. Anyway, start this wagon with me! It’ll give you lots of town points in my eyes if you do, and I’m pretty sure lots of votes is the only thing that will bring these lurkerscum out of their holes.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1122 on: June 22, 2019, 08:22:46 am »

also I rescind my pubby prod request because he’s actually posted today
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1123 on: June 22, 2019, 08:58:21 am »

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

I love it, but I can't say much because I'm incredibly biased. I would vote e/gkrieg but half of the statements are about things I said so it wouldn't make much sense.

The most important part, the end of the day case, works even if you’re town. In fact it works better if you’re town. A part of me actually thinks you’re the traitor, but then I have to rescind a bunch of other stuff. Anyway, start this wagon with me! It’ll give you lots of town points in my eyes if you do, and I’m pretty sure lots of votes is the only thing that will bring these lurkerscum out of their holes.

If I hop on the wagon and we're wrong, we lose. So, sorry, but no.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1124 on: June 22, 2019, 09:11:39 am »

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

Sure, ok, Vote: joth
That’s where I left off yestergameday. For now I will assume the effort is the final scum push to look towny and try to maybe have one bus member in a pool of otherwise townies and maybe even a 3p.

I’ll give it a more thorough read later torealday.  This should satisfy the desire for an immediate response, no?
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