Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[SpaceAnemone]

Space?

Reading and thinking. The main problem I'm coming across is that there are cases on both, and both have clearly engaged in bussing. It makes me want to go for a tone read, but I already know that MiX comes out of those sounding scummy in a way that I'm not convinced is from alignment rather than just his norman thought processes. I still really don't like the way he kept insisting he's IC.

Anyway, while the various "would he bus if X" arguments are weakened bit by the clear evidence that someone bussed somewhere, let's look through that history.

MiX votes both Swan and then Chairs in early D1, but then never returns to them.

Chairs votes MiX from #278, through his 6-person D1 wagon, and doesn't move off till #369.

Even more interesting, at #369, ADK's whole wagon is just Swan and Chairs... it's unusual for scum to clump like that with no townies supporting the wagon, but i don't think I know whether the subject of the wagon in such a weird situation is more likely to be scum or town.

Around #500-#550, MiX and ADK emerge as leading wagons, with Swan on the slowly-building ADK wagon and Chairs on the slightly more established MiX wagon.

At the beginning of D2, Chairs goes straight for MiX, and MiX goes for Swan. I can't help but wonder whether they've talked about bussing aggressively in the scum QT and then just run with it.
In contrast, ADK is briefly on Swan in the middle of D2 (#927-#952), but ends the day not voting. That's worth a re-read.

Okay, re-read that snippet. It's interesting that Chairs's post of being "Firmly in vote: datswan territory now" at #953 immediately follows a post by MiX where he says he's keeping his vote on Swan because he's stubborn. Could it be two enthusiastic buses feeding off each other?

In D3, MiX and ADK both vote early for Chairs. So again, we're definitely seeing pretty eager bussing from our remaining scum. ADK ends the day on-wagon on the Glooble mislynch, while MiX end the day on Chairs.

In D4, ADK does remarkably little (says me, hah!). Surely scum would feel under more pressure to be present and gain towncred?

MiX comes into D5 with "Good game everyone!" -- that seems a bit overconfident! Meanwhile ADK only makes 3 posts that day (to MiX's nine). Funny that in late D4, he suggested that maybe Chairs/gkrieg were using a lurking strategy to stay under the radar as a survival strategy.. all the while staying under the radar himself too. It feels almost too obvious, and also doesn't fit with the agressively-bussing Chairs we know we've seen in the game.

So yeah, it seems like I've kind of talked myself into the position that scum have been seen to have bussed pretty consistently and aggressively in this game, so I don't think giving MiX a pass just for his bussing is a good idea. Gkrieg tried constructing a scum narrative around ADK and didn't manage even though his survival more or less depended on it, which is also worth considering retrospectively.

[EFHW]

What about MiX instigating the choice of DatSwan by joth?

[MiX]

" It's interesting that Chairs's post of being "Firmly in vote: datswan territory now" at #953 immediately follows a post by MiX where he says he's keeping his vote on Swan because he's stubborn. Could it be two enthusiastic buses feeding off each other?"

My post comes right after I read ADK's wall post, and it's a "I read your arguments and I'm not convinced by them" kind of post. Especially since ADK clearly had an agenda when writting it, but I wasn't so sure at the time.

ADK's unvote of Swan D2, coupled with the wall post that accompanies it, is probably the scummiest thing he's done this game, not so much for his Swan townread, but more for the joth scumread. Yeah I've said this before, but it stands true.

[EFHW]

Space?

So yeah, it seems like I've kind of talked myself into the position that scum have been seen to have bussed pretty consistently and aggressively in this game, so I don't think giving MiX a pass just for his bussing is a good idea. Gkrieg tried constructing a scum narrative around ADK and didn't manage even though his survival more or less depended on it, which is also worth considering retrospectively.

Is MiX being given a pass for bussing? It seems like he is being accused of bussing. Maybe you mean giving him a pass on the assumption that he wouldn't bus so hard?

ADK also didn't manage to make much of case against MiX, and his life depends on it.

[A Drowned Kernel]

ADK also didn't manage to make much of case against MiX, and his life depends on it.

I mean, it's hard for me because for me the case against mix is "there's literally no one else it can be", so I had to go back and look for things that I hoped would convince you two. If what I found doesn't convince you then that's one thing, but if you saying I'm not putting forth effort then that's patently ridiculous.

[MiX]

ADK also didn't manage to make much of case against MiX, and his life depends on it.

I mean, it's hard for me because for me the case against mix is "there's literally no one else it can be", so I had to go back and look for things that I hoped would convince you two. If what I found doesn't convince you then that's one thing, but if you saying I'm not putting forth effort then that's patently ridiculous.

Huh, that's my case too! That and the way you backed off Swan: take a look at #951, can you explain in superb detail what you were thinking? Not that it matters, I guess you won't say "I felt like making a big reread to scumread joth and townread my partner, I thought that was something scum wouldn't really do there, I have to thank chairs for bussing Swan right after so we wouldn't get completely PoEd" but I would still like an answer.

[A Drowned Kernel]

ADK also didn't manage to make much of case against MiX, and his life depends on it.

I mean, it's hard for me because for me the case against mix is "there's literally no one else it can be", so I had to go back and look for things that I hoped would convince you two. If what I found doesn't convince you then that's one thing, but if you saying I'm not putting forth effort then that's patently ridiculous.

Huh, that's my case too! That and the way you backed off Swan: take a look at #951, can you explain in superb detail what you were thinking? Not that it matters, I guess you won't say "I felt like making a big reread to scumread joth and townread my partner, I thought that was something scum wouldn't really do there, I have to thank chairs for bussing Swan right after so we wouldn't get completely PoEd" but I would still like an answer.

Superb detail? I was doing a reread and trying to evaluate which of the two lynch candidates was most likely to be scum. Yes, I ended up backing off of a player who ended up being scum. I ended up being wrong in my reads. That's really all there is to it.

[MiX]

Well I guess I didn't really know what to expect from that question. Somewhere there must be a great ADK case proving he's scum, maybe I'll work on it...there's still 2 days, I guess.

[EFHW]

ADK also didn't manage to make much of case against MiX, and his life depends on it.

I mean, it's hard for me because for me the case against mix is "there's literally no one else it can be", so I had to go back and look for things that I hoped would convince you two. If what I found doesn't convince you then that's one thing, but if you saying I'm not putting forth effort then that's patently ridiculous.

I didn't mean that.

[EFHW]

ADK is correct that DatSwan defends MiX a lot. I don't know what to make of it. White knighting seems as likely as protecting a partner.

[A Drowned Kernel]

ADK also didn't manage to make much of case against MiX, and his life depends on it.

I mean, it's hard for me because for me the case against mix is "there's literally no one else it can be", so I had to go back and look for things that I hoped would convince you two. If what I found doesn't convince you then that's one thing, but if you saying I'm not putting forth effort then that's patently ridiculous.

I didn't mean that.

If you want to compare my case and mix's, mix's case on me pretty much just hinges on the one post I made on day two, where I'm making a pretty lengthy effort to sort two players whose alignments I don't know, and that fact that he was "instrumental" in getting DatSwan lynched, which is definitely an exaggeration- looking back at his posts, he never actually makes any sort of case on DatSwan or works to convince people, just basically says "let's lynch DatSwan!" a bunch. It's because he knows how swan is going to flip and is trying to build up towncred while he can.

If you want one simple, solid thing to look at out of things I pointed out up there, it's chairs's reaction to being challenged on D4. He makes a complete non-effort to get mix lynched over himself. He's taking the fall for his scumbuddy. There's lots of other things I poitned out, but that I think is one of the biggest tells in this game.

[MiX]

It's because he knows how swan is going to flip and is trying to build up towncred while he can.

How would scum know Swan's dropping early D2? It would be much better if Galz was challenged, or faust, or I don't know, who else was joth scumreading? Absolutely no reason to push for Swan there, look, it puts scum in LyLo at best where both scum are heavily under fire.

[SpaceAnemone]

Do we have a definitive deadline at the moment? I'm afraid on top of my usual Thursdayness hosting boardgames night (we all just died in Pandemic Iberia), I need to leave the house ~2 hours earlier than usual in the morning, meaning I need to be asleep in like 5 minutes or suffer lots of anxiety about not getting enough sleep...

I'm still feeling weirdly inclined to vote for MiX, but I'll actually have some free time tomorrow late and then Saturday, so let's see what else I can come up with, providing the deadline doesn't get in the way of it.

[EFHW]

Deadline is tomorrow 10:30 pm

[EFHW]

It's because he knows how swan is going to flip and is trying to build up towncred while he can.

How would scum know Swan's dropping early D2? It would be much better if Galz was challenged, or faust, or I don't know, who else was joth scumreading? Absolutely no reason to push for Swan there, look, it puts scum in LyLo at best where both scum are heavily under fire.

MiX was scumreading DatSwan from his 1st post Day 2. What is the scum narrative for that? What motivated taking the risk?

Also, chairs or DatSwan bussing MiX is a lot more dangerous than his bussing them, because there was a lot of support for lynching MiX. And the possible towncred is less because it was a popular wagon. I am on phone rn, but will look back at this later.

[A Drowned Kernel]

MiX was scumreading DatSwan from his 1st post Day 2. What is the scum narrative for that? What motivated taking the risk?

My best guess is that they were trying to compensate for swan defending mix on day one, and he ended up having to double down after joth started running out of potential challenge candidates. If you go back and look at how the day played out, it looked like joth was going to challenge mix, then galz, then faust, all before he gets to datswan. If you think that the lynch is going to be forced between two other people, casually bussing your partner isn't going to seem as dangerous. And then when joth actually challenged swan, he got caught.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Do we have a definitive deadline at the moment?

"Ehhhh, June 1 10:30 PM EST?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Deadline is tomorrow 10:30 pm

Two days (unless you're way ahead of me and it's already friday for you, don't know your timezone)

[EFHW]

Deadline is tomorrow 10:30 pm

Two days (unless you're way ahead of me and it's already friday for you, don't know your timezone)

Right you are!

[MiX]

If you think that the lynch is going to be forced between two other people, casually bussing your partner isn't going to seem as dangerous. And then when joth actually challenged swan, he got caught.

Why doesn't it seem dangerous? Look at D2, I'm pretty sure I was one of the main reasons why Swan was challenged (it's actually the best thing I did this game), why would scum do this? All I had to do was sit back and see who joth picked, no need to bus, scum would be in a much better position otherwise. Also "when Swan was challenged he got caught", do you mean Swan was caught or scum in general?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm pretty sure I was one of the main reasons why Swan was challenged

You keep saying this but that doesn't make it true.

All I had to do was sit back and see who joth picked, no need to bus, scum would be in a much better position otherwise.

If you don't participate in the discussion of who joth picks, you end up looking scummy. The whole point of bussing is that people see when they go back to reread later and it gets you townpoints. You know, like what's happening right now.

Also "when Swan was challenged he got caught", do you mean Swan was caught or scum in general?

I meant that you got caught, having pushed swan and not being in a position backpedal on it.

Here's my question for you, mix: why were you scumreading swan on day 2?

[EFHW]

MiX was scumreading DatSwan from his 1st post Day 2. What is the scum narrative for that? What motivated taking the risk?

My best guess is that they were trying to compensate for swan defending mix on day one, and he ended up having to double down after joth started running out of potential challenge candidates. If you go back and look at how the day played out, it looked like joth was going to challenge mix, then galz, then faust, all before he gets to datswan. If you think that the lynch is going to be forced between two other people, casually bussing your partner isn't going to seem as dangerous. And then when joth actually challenged swan, he got caught.

This last sentence doesn't fit the facts. MiX had 2 posts in a row strongly suspecting DatSwan right before joth picked. So he's not getting caught. He's either genuinely scumhunting or brazenly bussing.

Most scum teams would not try the brazenly bussing plan so early in the game. If joth picked town, that's  a free mislynch.  Who would pass that up? I disagree that MiX was under pressure here.  joth still had a lot of choices.  There was no reason to expect him to pick DatSwan.  And if he did, scum!MiX could jump in enthusiastically at that point with the bussing.

I've realized that if I vote ADK here, that's the hammer no matter what Space does because ADK reached L-1 first.

PPE ADK

[EFHW]

It's pretty likely that MiX influenced joth, given the timing of the challenge and joth not focusing on DatSwan before then.

[MiX]

I meant that you got caught, having pushed swan and not being in a position backpedal on it.

Here's my question for you, mix: why were you scumreading swan on day 2?

Ah, so your narrative for my play is I bussed incredibly hard and didn't expect Swan to be caught? Read my D2, can you see anyway scum!me can backpedal from my incredible scumread on Swan? I'm not delusional, I would know, as scum, that bussing that hard means I have to continue, there's no way I would ever think "I called Swan almost always scum but I can 180 on joth, my biggest townread", no one is this crazy..

I was mainly scumreading him for his setup nonsense, coupled with the fact that scum was clearly chilling after early D2 and he was by far the scummiest of them.

PPE 1: I agree completely.

[EFHW]

ADK is correct that DatSwan defends MiX a lot. I don't know what to make of it. White knighting seems as likely as protecting a partner.

Datswan's posts don't read to me like he has an agenda.  My guess is that he was saying what he thought he would say as town, regardless of who his partners were.