Here's my case on MiX:
Day One MiX stuff:Mix is one of the more active players day one. A lot of his posts are on one of two topics: the setup and the possibility of him getting lynched. When there's pressure on him, there's an emotional tone to a lot of his post, and he outright says alongside a number of his votes that he's moving there for survival. He also moves his vote around quite a lot.
Mix, from my experience, is someone who puts a lot of emotion into his posts, and more to the point, knows that people generally read it as towny; I think that in these posts he's consciously playing up the pressure that he's feeling in order to get it off of him. He also seems to be particular where he redirects it: most of his votes are for gkrieg, joth, and me.
Here's some specifics I found:
Very early vote for Datswan. Notable in that this is still close to RVS, he doesn't really push over the next few posts, then
drops it a little later to switch to me, then switches to
a town read on swan. In between these posts swan did nothing but talk about the setup.
An early vote for chairs, at a point where people are voting to put pressure on someone who hasn't posted. He does it immediately after glooble does it, and the reasoning is something that's very easy to walk back.
I point out these two votes because they're the majority of Mix's early interaction with the two; early votes with easily retractable reasons, that don't really lead into a direct interaction with the players in question.
A big ol' reads list, with datswan and chairs in the same category and next to no commentary. He doesn't even say if he wants to lynch them, just asserting that there's no interest.
Mix makes some brief mentions of swan late in the day, in
this post he mentions datswan and EFHW as potential lynch candidates by virtue of not having been talked about. And then a bit later, he
votes for EFHW, with no further mention of swan.
The last notable D1 moment I want to highlight is mix's
VT claim. Whether a VT claim or a PR claim is scummier is a lot of WIFOM, but there's a point that I didn't consider at the time that I think explains why scum might lean toward claiming VT: at this point in the game, scum doesn't know the setup; they don't know whether we're in the upper left or lower right quadrant. This means that part of the value of claiming a PR- that is, outing a powerful town PR- is more of a gamble than usual, because if you claim from the wrong quadrant, you could easily be outed without any town PRs claiming at all. For example, if mix had claimed cop, after joseph flipped, we would have caught him without having to out anyone at all. I don't know if that thought factored into mix's decision, but it was a thought that I had when I was rereading the wagon on him and his claim.
Day One chairs and Datswan stuff:So the most notable Datswan stuff from day one: when mix and I are the leading wagons, he spends
a lot of time
defending mix. Like,
a lot. He makes it very clear that if it comes down to me or mix,
he wants to lynch me.chairs is a terse, lurky player. He
votes for me, then
switches to mix, switches
back to me, then
back to mix, and finally
backs off mix as soon as mix claims. His last post of the day is to
vote for joth.Day Two MiX stuff:Similarly to his efforts D1 on not getting lynched, a lot of his effort on D2 is to avoid being challenged. He also busses Swan considerably, especially as the day goes on. I think it's pretty likely that during N1, he and swan looked back on D1, saw how much swan was defending him, and decided they needed to try and disassociate themselves from each other.
His first post of the day offhandedly mentions swan as possible scum, without much elaboration.
He brings it up again, then
votes, but is also
careful to keep his options open.He votes for datswan right after joth challenges, but still
makes sure that he has an out, at least until the datswan lynch starts looking inevitable.
This post is noteworthy, in that it's the first post where mix asserts that he's an IC, and is also around when mix starts doubling down on the bus. This ties into a couple of threads that, looking over the game as a whole, I think are related: 1) mix's focus on asserting his townieness, and 2) the fact that this was a very bussy game for scum. But more on that later.
Day 2 chairs and Datswan stuff:Datswan doesn't have a lot of content pre-challenge, again a lot of setup stuff, and post-challenge is mostly him trying not to get lynched. Worth noting, in his
most substantial post of the day, he continues to back mix.
chairs is terse and lurky again. Starts with saying
he'll vote for joth over mix, then
switches, then immediately
puts his suspicion back on joth, then
is back to finding mix towny.Also worth noting: chairs has no qualms
bussing swan. Again, the high level of bussing this game is something I'll talk about more later.
Day 3 MiX stuff:Mix pushes glooble a ton, though also swings his votes elsewhere now and then. At this point, I think my theory is that his derphammer was a genuine accident, albeit one that ultimately benefiting his team.
First post of the day, again asserting that he's an IC, and bringing up the possibility of the lynchee. He brings this up a couple of times later, and here's why I think it's important: it's becoming clear as D3 goes on that scum is in danger of getting killed by PoE. MiX knows that I'm town, and also suspects I might be the lynchee. If he argues too strongly against that, people will see that he's scum trying to keep the lynch pool wider. So he tries to sound out whether other people also suspect that, while trying to push his own towniness.
This is were the whole bussing issue comes in: I think that at this point in the game, scum needs to rely on getting as much towncred on one player as they can, and hoping that player can outlast the rest of the dwindling lynchpool. This is why mix is so willing to bus his partner, and explains chairs behavior D4 (will get to that later).
Some specific mix posts:
He starts with a vote for glooble, switches to
chairs based on a case from glooble (someone he's claiming to scumread), then
jumps off because an IC told him to.
Later, he
asks why people aren't considering chairs, but doesn't vote. Then he
narrows the pool to chairs and gkrieg, while voting gkrieg.
The
pattern I see, which goes back to D1, is lots of mentioning of his partners in a “I could vote this way” fashion, without actually committing, or making sure that there's someone else in the set of people he's talking about.
Finally actually votes for chairs, then
switches to Glooble for the derphammer. Again, I actually think this is a genuine accident; mix is just swinging his vote around enough because for the long term plan, he needs any lynch that isn't him.
Day 3 chairs stuff:chairs makes all of two posts on D3, one where he claims VT and one where he
defends mix and votes for glooble. What's interesting about this is that at the start of the next day, he's somehow switched to a scumread on mix.
Day 4, Mix and chairs:So here's the big question: why does mix challenge his partner here, and not gkrieg? And I've been thinking about this, and I think that the answer isn't that mix is afraid that he won't win vs. gkrieg, he's afraid of what happens if he
does win against gkrieg. If mix challenges gkrieg, gkrieg flips town, and then the next day the lynch pool is mix, chairs, and me, and maybe,
maybe galz, and in that scenario, after challenging gkrieg, no way does he not get lynched; after that it would be down to me and chairs, and I don't think chairs would have won that. So when
mix lays out this plan, what he's describing isn't “suicidal”, it's literally scum's only viable path to victory at this point. The biggest hurdle is that mix has to get to this point and get me lynched, which is basically where we are right now.
When you look at chairs's posts on D4, he basically offers up no resistance or makes any attempt to get mix lynched over himself. He either realized all of the above or it had been discussed in detail the night before.
Day 5:Not much to see here, basically just mix pushing the gkrieg wagon, while making sure he
sets up the switch over to me tomorrow.
So I've spent the last few hours going over this game, hopefully I've got enough stuff here to convince you two, because I'm pretty sure this is the last great effort I'm willing to put into this game. Scummy mix posts, a scum narrative for his play, mix is scum, please vote mix. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
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Topic: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Game Over! Town won!) (Read 195496 times)