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[MiX]

So t he lynch choices seem to be {mix, ADK, joth}
My preferences would be ADK > joth >> MiX

But I want to Vote: joth for now, as that puts them in a tie with MiX. Probably most likely wagon other than the stubborn people on MiX

Did people ever try to figure out who Joseph was trying to lynch? It certainly wasn't MiX.

It's...wait do we want this out? I forgot.

PPE 2: Yeah it's ADK.

[Glooble]

One thing is certain - if we were to lynch among Galzria/MiX today, I would strongly advocate for Galzria.

I don't see a scenario where Galz is scum and his partner is anyone other than MiX.

[gkrieg13]

Eventually I will go back and see how D2 unfolded, but I have to go now.

[gkrieg13]

One thing is certain - if we were to lynch among Galzria/MiX today, I would strongly advocate for Galzria.

I don't see a scenario where Galz is scum and his partner is anyone other than MiX.

MiX was defended a lot by Datswan. I think that is the only major thing I got from my Swan reread.

[jotheonah]

if we have broad consensus on ADK being the lynchee that's one more name out of the lynchpool, so that's helpful.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm pretty sure if we lynch glooble, gkrieg, and chairs in any order, then we win. So let's do that.

[Glooble]

I'm pretty sure if we lynch glooble, gkrieg, and chairs in any order, then we win. So let's do that.

Unless it's MiX/Galz. Then we lose.

[jotheonah]

Ok, so one option here is a Galz-MiX-DatSwan team.

If we eliminate ADK, then we're looking at 2 scum in chairs-Glooble-gkrieg as the other possibility. Of those, I think gkrieg is reading very towny, Glooble is, well, I can see why people are scumreading him, and chairs continues to be mainly lurky. Plus, faust's tracker result on gkrieg, while by no means exonerating, is a point in his favor.

So let's say we lynch MiX today and he flips town. Scum kills one of our PRs tonight. Tomorrow we're at 8, we lynch Glooble. He flips town? We're at 6 and it's milo. we no lynch I guess. Now we're at 5 townmembers: chairs, gkrieg, and three ICs. And then ... we win. Assuming all our assumptions were correct, we can lynch chairs then gkrieg.

Now let's say we lynch Glooble today and he flips town. Tomorrow, we're at 8. We can lynch chairs, he flips town. Now we're at 6, we no lynch, now we're at 5 with Galz, MiX, gkrieg. I guess at that point we lynch MiX or Galz, since.

So it seems like whatever option we choose, the odds are pretty well in our favor if we're willing to give ADK a pass. The advantage of MiX first is that it will give us a clearer idea of what we're dealing with and whether we can trust Galz. The advantage of lynching Glooble/chairs/gkrieg first is that there's a chance NKs will take care of the MiX/Galz issue for us and we won't have to waste a lynch on it, and if they don't, well, that's more evidence.

But how do we lose the game here? That's the question. In the scenarios I've laid out, we can lose to a gkrieg-ADK team. But that's a chance I'll take.

[jotheonah]

I'm pretty sure if we lynch glooble, gkrieg, and chairs in any order, then we win. So let's do that.

We only have to lynch two of them. If we hit town both times, the other one's clear because ... who's their partner?

[jotheonah]

Basically we have enough mislynches to guarantee our win in all but the most outlandish of circumstances.

[Glooble]

I'm pretty sure if we lynch glooble, gkrieg, and chairs in any order, then we win. So let's do that.

We only have to lynch two of them. If we hit town both times, the other one's clear because ... who's their partner?

Could be MiX. MiX being town exonerates Galz, it doesn't work the other way around.

[jotheonah]

I'm pretty sure if we lynch glooble, gkrieg, and chairs in any order, then we win. So let's do that.

We only have to lynch two of them. If we hit town both times, the other one's clear because ... who's their partner?

Could be MiX. MiX being town exonerates Galz, it doesn't work the other way around.

hmmm that's true. then we really do want to lynch MiX today. It's the most assured path to victory.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Not sure if it changes anything but we can't no lynch

[jotheonah]

Not sure if it changes anything but we can't no lynch

We can’t ACCIDENTALLY no lynch. We can still vote for it.

[faust]

I don't buy the narrative that Galz can only be scum with MiX, so I don't think there's a point in favor of a MiX lynch there.

[MiX]

I don't buy the narrative that Galz can only be scum with MiX, so I don't think there's a point in favor of a MiX lynch there.

I also don't buy the narrative that MiX can only be scum with Galz. Wait...

Anyway my voice doesn't matter here: you can lynch me, but obviously from my perspective that'll be a complete waste of time. I like a gkrieg lynch more than anything at this point.

[jotheonah]

Ok faust, so why does scum!promoter Galz claim when he does?

[jotheonah]

I don't buy the narrative that Galz can only be scum with MiX, so I don't think there's a point in favor of a MiX lynch there.

I also don't buy the narrative that MiX can only be scum with Galz. Wait...

Anyway my voice doesn't matter here: you can lynch me, but obviously from my perspective that'll be a complete waste of time. I like a gkrieg lynch more than anything at this point.

really??? why gkrieg? he reads hella townie to me

[MiX]

I don't buy the narrative that Galz can only be scum with MiX, so I don't think there's a point in favor of a MiX lynch there.

I also don't buy the narrative that MiX can only be scum with Galz. Wait...

Anyway my voice doesn't matter here: you can lynch me, but obviously from my perspective that'll be a complete waste of time. I like a gkrieg lynch more than anything at this point.

really??? why gkrieg? he reads hella townie to me

Hmmmmmm why? I also have a feeling scum is more likely to reread Swan and check EVERYTHING, even things about dead players. Also it's either that or chairs (I like Glooble's """case""" on me) and that just feels like lynching a lurker.

[faust]

Ok faust, so why does scum!promoter Galz claim when he does?

So he doesn't get challenged, and for general towncred. I find it less likely that Galz would tie himself to a partner like that this early.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't buy the narrative that Galz can only be scum with MiX, so I don't think there's a point in favor of a MiX lynch there.

I also don't buy the narrative that MiX can only be scum with Galz. Wait...

Anyway my voice doesn't matter here: you can lynch me, but obviously from my perspective that'll be a complete waste of time. I like a gkrieg lynch more than anything at this point.

really??? why gkrieg? he reads hella townie to me

Hmmmmmm why? I also have a feeling scum is more likely to reread Swan and check EVERYTHING, even things about dead players. Also it's either that or chairs (I like Glooble's """case""" on me) and that just feels like lynching a lurker.

Sometimes lynching a lurker is just the right thing to do

[EFHW]

Ok faust, so why does scum!promoter Galz claim when he does?

So he doesn't get challenged, and for general towncred. I find it less likely that Galz would tie himself to a partner like that this early.

Exactly. 

There is going to be another challenge tomorrow.

[EFHW]

Galzria, who will you be challenging?

[jotheonah]

Do we lynch Galzria? It means we get a normal day tomorrow.

[EFHW]

Galzria, who will you be challenging?

*promoting