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[Glooble]

Bleh. Now I'm starting to think MiX really is town.

At the beginning of the day you said you really thought MiX was town. And you made a case against chairs. What happened?

What happened was joth reminded me of the possibility of the MiX/ Galz team and I got a little obsessed.

[Glooble]

My case on chairs still exists. There might be additional wagon-based evidence to corroborate it. It’s probably worth looking at.

[Glooble]

This is basically what happened with me and ashersky in Imperial Radch Mafia. I have a bad habit of tunneling at this point in the game.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Any chance we lynch neither MiX nor Glooble today?

I continue to townread Glooble. And I’m not sure he has ever fooled me as scum. I know him as well as I know anybody and I don’t think he’s scum.

Who did you have in mind?

[jotheonah]

The scum!Galz theory is clever and satisfying. Those kinds of theories are almost never true.

...

**Scum!Galz is putting all his eggs in one basket, because if MiX gets lynched anyway, galz's fakeclaim is also revealed and they both go down. No way. I don't believe he would do that.

EFHW makes good points here. But I’m not convinced.

MiX promoting me would be weird, but not out of the question, especially given (A) the enormous amount of towncred he had at the end of D1 from his VT claim and (B) my D1 comment that I probably wouldn’t challenge MiX since I knew scum would expect me to and (C) MiX’s confidence that he could get out of it by buddying me (which he did, aggressively, at the start of D2).

As for Galzria’s claim timing, I think he does claim to get me away from MiX. Go back and reread. His claim is coupled with an extremely aggressive posture toward me. He and MiX are both throwing everything they’ve got at making me out to be scum. Yes, he was taking a risk, but I think they both thought they could easily get me to lose that fight. Then when that stopped working, what did Galz do? He switched to being friendly to me but still gently directing my lynch away from MiX by suggesting I need to choose independently and get less town input (at this point a lot of town had pledged to vote one way or another on me/MiX.

Finally, as off the wall as this narrative might be, there’s no compelling alternative narrative. So if I’m wrong about this, then scum have played a very tight game.

Finally, I think we’re devaluing the amount of info we have.

We have the opportunity to re-read the first two days knowing 6-7 town and one scum. Players of our caliber ought to be able to get something out of that. I think we need to turn our attention there. I would suggest especially looking at the DatSwan wagon.

[MiX]

There's no other cool awesome narrative because gkrieg and chairs are mad lurking here. Ew.

Vote: gkrieg

[Glooble]

I was thinking that too. Back to vote: chairs for now but I’ll look back today.

[Glooble]

Just looked back and MiX is also voting for joth at the end of Day 1. Which was my main point in favor of chairs over gKrieg. GKrieg and I both ended that day voting for MiX. I’m sure there’s some kind of wagon analysis that could crack this wide open.

[gkrieg13]

Why are we all saying the Promoter is negative utility? If they guess right and target scum, they increase our chance of lynching scum to 50%. How is that bad?

I mean I’ll be capt obvious here:
Given the size of the game, if there is a town promoter, on Night 1 they could either:
1) target themselves and another the next day. 1 town, 1 unknown. This assuredly ends in them claiming meaning the other player is x/11 chance of skum.

2) If there is no promoter, we as town lynch someone tomorrow who has... an x/12 chance of being skum... but we get to decide collectively.

All in all i think promoter is neg utility to exist at all because it forces isolation to 2 people the next day instead of people getting to pick who they focus on from the group - so it limits discussion.

I mean talked to death at this point. I don’t think the claim makes any sense, and we will know tomorrow if a promoter exists or not.

Rereading Swan, this stood out. It's WIFOM, but is Datswan more likely to say that it is possible for there to be no promoter if scum has the promoter or if town has it?

[gkrieg13]

Why are we all saying the Promoter is negative utility? If they guess right and target scum, they increase our chance of lynching scum to 50%. How is that bad?

I mean I’ll be capt obvious here:
Given the size of the game, if there is a town promoter, on Night 1 they could either:
1) target themselves and another the next day. 1 town, 1 unknown. This assuredly ends in them claiming meaning the other player is x/11 chance of skum.

2) If there is no promoter, we as town lynch someone tomorrow who has... an x/12 chance of being skum... but we get to decide collectively.

All in all i think promoter is neg utility to exist at all because it forces isolation to 2 people the next day instead of people getting to pick who they focus on from the group - so it limits discussion.

I mean talked to death at this point. I don’t think the claim makes any sense, and we will know tomorrow if a promoter exists or not.

You already know that one exists. You just don’t know if they are scum or town.

Right but i don’t think anyone is arguing the negative utility of the skum version.

Never mind, it seems like he is walking this back at this point? I'm not sure, but it makes me townread galz a lot more.

[gkrieg13]

My expectations are that thus far scum has sided with “Should Claims” and “Neutrals” if it’s a town!promoter, and have been wherever they feel like if it’s a scum!promoter, as they have no intention of claiming anyway.

I don't think that kind of reasoning is fruitful. Scum have taken the side that they believe is the correct play. It does not pay off for them to lie about this stuff. What I will say is that scum probably happily engaged in all this setup talk that brings us nowhere.

I disagree.

Could be a middle ground - if skum has the promoter they would know there is no town promoter. So, fairly easy day 1 plan could be to start the convo to “waste time”, knowing there will be no claim, and then tomorrow come out with “I’m the town promoter and targeted this person”.

They could even parlay that tomorrow if they got suspected, which would inevitably force a claim. If they already know A-D is in play, they would want to get rid of as many from B-D as they could so that could be a plan.


Side note - that is a super reach theory in detail, but the initial premise is something that should be remembered going forward.

This post is funny because it is either exactly what was done, or it is some interesting interaction between scum partners.

[gkrieg13]

Getting my posts together, but I do want to say that I both agree and disagree with Galz on the MCMC thing:
MCMC for sure does tunnel early days... but like... changes lanes a lot too, if that makes sense? From what I have played with them they will normally find a few spots to tunnel fairly hard, not just one, but they will really really push them.

That being said, I have found they do it as both skum and town - So, IDK if there is anything to be taken from it or not.

I do not think pursuing MCMC based on this idea would be a great use of our time.


@EFHW - Is Galz more skummy than MiX is towny to you?

Very hedgy on mcmcsalot.

[gkrieg13]

Regarding the MiX Wagon:

I think that the only skum narrative for bringing up or supporting the Town Promoter Claim is if Skum knows they have the Promoter, and not Town.

I think there is a chance that skum would of brought up the claim in that instance, as it would both take time away from the early day and it would leave everyone wondering which promoter exists - the skum one not claiming, or the mafia one staying silent (or skum could fake claim somewhat safely in that situation, but I find that less likely).

I think there is a chance that skum knows there is a Town Promoter, and used the engage to attempt to isolate a kill selection based on PRs.

I do not think that it is likely that a Town player would pursue the claim of the Promoter to a great extent, especially to the point of actually claiming something. They could do it as Goon though.

All of this has me looking at ADK and MiX. Given how popular the MiX wagon is this early on Day 1... It kind of has me leaning "not MiX" right now.

I am going to read ADK back, but for now:

Vote: ADK

Does DatSwan like to bus? This seems like an important post. He chooses to defend MiX and vote for ADK before he has really read ADK. His reasoning isn't that great either for not jumping on the MiX wagon.

[faust]

And I’m having a very difficult time seeing a scenario where you’re town. So what would you do in my position? Imagine you’ve been scumreading someone all game and suddenly they’re pushing for a lynch pool that inexplicably doesn’t include them?

I can't think of any situation where I would push for a lynchpool that includes me...

[MiX]

Getting my posts together, but I do want to say that I both agree and disagree with Galz on the MCMC thing:
MCMC for sure does tunnel early days... but like... changes lanes a lot too, if that makes sense? From what I have played with them they will normally find a few spots to tunnel fairly hard, not just one, but they will really really push them.

That being said, I have found they do it as both skum and town - So, IDK if there is anything to be taken from it or not.

I do not think pursuing MCMC based on this idea would be a great use of our time.


@EFHW - Is Galz more skummy than MiX is towny to you?

Very hedgy on mcmcsalot.

Why would this be useful now? We know he's scum already.

[gkrieg13]

Although scum can't be sure of town vs town from it, because we could change our minds, and of course there's a traitor

Vote: Joseph

Only scum can know that there is a Traitor.

Happy to have someone else keep me company on the Joseph wagon. Sadly, I do think there's a pretty high chance Joseph's just being unobservant instead of explicitly scumslipping.

But that's not how we get more company!

You also don’t get more company by pushing bad cases & making bad/unexplained votes.

sure you do - you just get bad company

This is a lot of interactions if Datswan and galz were partners.

[gkrieg13]

Getting my posts together, but I do want to say that I both agree and disagree with Galz on the MCMC thing:
MCMC for sure does tunnel early days... but like... changes lanes a lot too, if that makes sense? From what I have played with them they will normally find a few spots to tunnel fairly hard, not just one, but they will really really push them.

That being said, I have found they do it as both skum and town - So, IDK if there is anything to be taken from it or not.

I do not think pursuing MCMC based on this idea would be a great use of our time.


@EFHW - Is Galz more skummy than MiX is towny to you?

Very hedgy on mcmcsalot.

Why would this be useful now? We know he's scum already.

Didn't realize mcmcsalot was dead.

[gkrieg13]

Okay, I do this every game, so I suppose I need to keep up the tradition: helps me as every alignment so it can't go wrong. I know that we don't want to give too much information to scum, so I'll keep it succint.

arishipshape: I'm not lynching him.

DatSwan: No one is lynching him.

chairs: Consistent. That's all I can say about him. No one is lynching him.

joth: Jokes a lot, focused a bunch of me, ari and ADK. Does almost nothing other than interact with us three. Scum.

MiX: Town. Seriously discourage this lynch, better people to focus.

ADK: Talks a lot about promoter given he's the one that brought it up. faust's case makes sense but I don't think traitor would do that: I would suspect scum would give traitor a way to claim, this way there would be communication (for all scum know ADK's not traitor, maybe someone else signaled better, who knows, I've never played with traitor). My previous townread on him is failing, not sure where he's positioned in my reads anymore. Would lynch.

gkrieg: No one is lynching him.

mcmc: I have no idea. "Not town!mcmc" is probably how I would describe him. His logic seems to make sense sometimes so not exactly my favourite here. Would lynch.

Glooble: Town. Oops. Unvote, sorry about that. I still think voting there was justified, but I clearly needed to re-reread Glooble to get a better read.

Galzria: Not knowing his meta is hurting me, but I read a scum game where he basically bussed early. Didn't happen here, plus he seems more confident on his vote, so he seems town. I'll need to see more, however. I'm not lynching him.

faust: No one is lynching him.

Joseph: Different. I need to reread the game I played with him to see just how different. I'm not lynching him.

Space: Town, as I've said.

EFHW: No one is lynching her.


Overall, I think mcmc, ADK or joth are the scummiest bunch from the people I actually want to lynch today. Of those;

Vote: joth, almost no content, a lot of it is focused on players he doesn't know, too many jokes for my taste, all in all does not seem to be helping town. Maybe I just can't read him, but he still looks like the scummiest of them all. I'll try to make a case on him just to rectify if he's this scummy or not.

PPE all the way from gkrieg's infinity posts, including mine.

If you did not open this with "I do this regardless of alignment" I would say this is the skummiest thing you have posted all game.
To the players still on MiX, I would like to point out it would be unlikely for a skum player as the leading wagon to write up this list that specifically isolates such a small amount of players.

For that and other sorted reasons I really do no want to lynch MiX today. That being said I was also their number 1 defense in the last game I played with them and MiX played me like a pooch as SK - so take my opinion as you will I guess.

More defending MiX.

[faust]

One thing is certain - if we were to lynch among Galzria/MiX today, I would strongly advocate for Galzria.

[gkrieg13]

Galzria: Not knowing his meta is hurting me, but I read a scum game where he basically bussed early. Didn't happen here, plus he seems more confident on his vote, so he seems town. I'll need to see more, however. I'm not lynching him.

How can you know whether or not someone if bussing if you don't know who their partners are?

I believe MiX is saying "since I know I am Town, Galz can't be bussing"... as Galz only vote to my knowledge was on MiX.

Even going out of his way to answer for MiX.

[MiX]

One thing is certain - if we were to lynch among Galzria/MiX today, I would strongly advocate for Galzria.

That's terrible: killing Galz does not help at all. The best way to reduce our lynch pool is if we kill someone in {MiX, gkrieg, Glooble, chairs, ADK}.

[faust]

Any chance we lynch neither MiX nor Glooble today?

I continue to townread Glooble. And I’m not sure he has ever fooled me as scum. I know him as well as I know anybody and I don’t think he’s scum.

I hate this reasoning. I'm literally coming from a game where I pushed for a shraeye lynch against the expressed advice of town!raerae, and he flipped scum. Knowing a person better doesn't necessarily make you better at reading them, because they also know you better and can play you.

[gkrieg13]

So t he lynch choices seem to be {mix, ADK, joth}
My preferences would be ADK > joth >> MiX

But I want to Vote: joth for now, as that puts them in a tie with MiX. Probably most likely wagon other than the stubborn people on MiX

Did people ever try to figure out who Joseph was trying to lynch? It certainly wasn't MiX.

[faust]

So t he lynch choices seem to be {mix, ADK, joth}
My preferences would be ADK > joth >> MiX

But I want to Vote: joth for now, as that puts them in a tie with MiX. Probably most likely wagon other than the stubborn people on MiX

Did people ever try to figure out who Joseph was trying to lynch? It certainly wasn't MiX.

Yes but it wasn't worth talking about until PRs were outed. ADK is the most likely candidate, out of the rest he expressedly defended gkrieg and chairs and gave a non-scumread on joth. ADK is most likely the lynchee.

[gkrieg13]

Sooo joth 4/Joseph 4? That would still make joth the lynch? I strongly dislike that. I will go back to MiX to avoid a joth lynch.

false (I think) You put Joseph at 4 last and neither I think have been higher that that? So that would mean Joseph lynch I believe. I mean we have 2 hours still, but as of now, that is what I understand.

wrong. I am false, you are correct. just re read it.

anyone else wanna jump over to Joseph?

Datswan also repeatedly tries to subtly get joth not lynched, but it would be pretty ballsy to get nominated as scum and then challenge another scum.