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[LastFootnote]

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?

[Awaclus]

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?

As in games where the other player concedes on their turn?

[nasmith99]

I think the answer depends more on the way people play than on any objective features of the game. If everyone played the way I do, the answer would be never. (I assume you are excluding resignations)

If both players get the same number of turns, then Player 2 must have initiated the end of the game. The way I play, I never cause the game to end if it would end in me losing. (If I think I am hopelessly behind, I just resign.) Some people do this as a kind of resignation, so I think that any data-based answer to your question is ultimately a measure of people's playing habits rather than a measure of FPA.

[LastFootnote]

I think the answer depends more on the way people play than on any objective features of the game. If everyone played the way I do, the answer would be never. (I assume you are excluding resignations)

If both players get the same number of turns, then Player 2 must have initiated the end of the game. The way I play, I never cause the game to end if it would end in me losing. (If I think I am hopelessly behind, I just resign.) Some people do this as a kind of resignation, so I think that any data-based answer to your question is ultimately a measure of people's playing habits rather than a measure of FPA.

Right, I forgot about resignations. Ugh.

[DG]

Even if you had this data I don't you can separate out miscalculations, gambles, random effects (boons, swindles, hexes), effective resignations, misclicks, multiplayer intentions, and so on.

[Donald X.]

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?

I asked in the skynet channel, which is, well I think it's the channel about the bot. It's a good place to bother markus about stats.

A big thing missing from that thread on BGG is, if you want your game to be popular with oh regular people, like let's call it a "gateway game," then getting rid of a big hunk of luck, e.g. getting rid of FPA, may really screw you over.

Expert players want to see expert players win. Casual players want to see casual players win. Hedgehogs want to see hedgehogs win. We don't get too many hedgehogs, but we get lots of casual players. Which sells better, the game that most appeals to gamers, or the game that most appeals to serious gamers? It could be a tie. Expert players are more vocal on e.g. BGG and so you have people saying, how in the world is this FPA still there. It may be doing good work though.

[Donald X.]

markus says:



[fixed from earlier version]

[markus]

I can often not really distinguish resigning from buying last Province for a loss. The games without resign are the ones with at least 2 Provinces left or 2 cards away from a 3-pile.

[Jeebus]

markus says:



[fixed from earlier version]

I'm probably dumb, I don't get these stats. They seem to say that out of 43,898 games, P1 won 3,419 games. But that would be crazy.

[JW]

I'm probably dumb, I don't get these stats. They seem to say that out of 43,898 games, P1 won 3,419 games. But that would be crazy.

Many people will only end the game on their turn on a win, as opposed to ending the game on their turn in a loss. So when the game ends on player 2's turn, it means that player 2 ended the game on a win. Situations when you don't know if you'll win or lose (e.g., will Vineyards go up enough from buying that one last action) are pretty rare.

[theblankman]

markus says:



[fixed from earlier version]

I'm probably dumb, I don't get these stats. They seem to say that out of 43,898 games, P1 won 3,419 games. But that would be crazy.

I read it as: Out of 43898 games, 20121 end on P2's turn. Of those 20121, 541 are ties, 3419 are P1 wins. Makes sense that P2 would not often choose to end the game with a P1 win. 1125 of those 3419 end by anything other than P2 resigning, and of those 1125, 1085 include Fleet.

[Jeebus]

Ok, I see. Yeah, I thought something had to be inaccurate in the way it was described, but I couldn't figure out what.

[infangthief]

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?

As in games where the other player concedes on their turn?

Or games where there are [cough]three other players[/cough] and player four chooses to take second place.

[Awaclus]

Or games where there are [cough]three other players[/cough] and player four chooses to take second place.

Players who choose to concede and force others to concede as well is one of the best reasons to not play 3p and higher.

[GendoIkari]

Or games where there are [cough]three other players[/cough] and player four chooses to take second place.

Players who choose to concede and force others to concede as well is one of the best reasons to not play 3p and higher.

It is indeed one disadvantage; but one that almost every 3+ player board game has. Some have more obvious politics involved than others; but in almost any game; there is always the chance that a player making a poor decision will also hurt you and help a different opponent. This disadvantage is generally outweighed by the fun or interest of the game in question.

[Jeebus]

Yeah, the added randomness is pretty much the only reason I prefer a lower player count in Dominion.