Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: [1]

Author Topic: A Question About First-Player Advantage  (Read 5337 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

LastFootnote

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7494
  • Shuffle iT Username: LastFootnote
  • Respect: +10715
    • View Profile
A Question About First-Player Advantage
« on: February 25, 2019, 04:43:17 pm »
+3

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?
Logged

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11790
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (。 ω 。`)
  • Respect: +12818
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2019, 04:44:56 pm »
+2

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?

As in games where the other player concedes on their turn?
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

nasmith99

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 26
  • Shuffle iT Username: nasmith99
  • Respect: +55
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2019, 04:51:32 pm »
+6

I think the answer depends more on the way people play than on any objective features of the game. If everyone played the way I do, the answer would be never. (I assume you are excluding resignations)

If both players get the same number of turns, then Player 2 must have initiated the end of the game. The way I play, I never cause the game to end if it would end in me losing. (If I think I am hopelessly behind, I just resign.) Some people do this as a kind of resignation, so I think that any data-based answer to your question is ultimately a measure of people's playing habits rather than a measure of FPA.
Logged

LastFootnote

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7494
  • Shuffle iT Username: LastFootnote
  • Respect: +10715
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2019, 04:57:56 pm »
+1

I think the answer depends more on the way people play than on any objective features of the game. If everyone played the way I do, the answer would be never. (I assume you are excluding resignations)

If both players get the same number of turns, then Player 2 must have initiated the end of the game. The way I play, I never cause the game to end if it would end in me losing. (If I think I am hopelessly behind, I just resign.) Some people do this as a kind of resignation, so I think that any data-based answer to your question is ultimately a measure of people's playing habits rather than a measure of FPA.

Right, I forgot about resignations. Ugh.
Logged

DG

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4074
  • Respect: +2624
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2019, 06:50:27 pm »
+1

Even if you had this data I don't you can separate out miscalculations, gambles, random effects (boons, swindles, hexes), effective resignations, misclicks, multiplayer intentions, and so on.
Logged

Donald X.

  • Dominion Designer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6319
  • Respect: +25483
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2019, 08:16:11 pm »
+7

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?
I asked in the skynet channel, which is, well I think it's the channel about the bot. It's a good place to bother markus about stats.

A big thing missing from that thread on BGG is, if you want your game to be popular with oh regular people, like let's call it a "gateway game," then getting rid of a big hunk of luck, e.g. getting rid of FPA, may really screw you over.

Expert players want to see expert players win. Casual players want to see casual players win. Hedgehogs want to see hedgehogs win. We don't get too many hedgehogs, but we get lots of casual players. Which sells better, the game that most appeals to gamers, or the game that most appeals to serious gamers? It could be a tie. Expert players are more vocal on e.g. BGG and so you have people saying, how in the world is this FPA still there. It may be doing good work though.
Logged

Donald X.

  • Dominion Designer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6319
  • Respect: +25483
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2019, 02:10:58 am »
+5

markus says:



[fixed from earlier version]
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 02:45:17 am by Donald X. »
Logged

markus

  • Apprentice
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 291
  • Shuffle iT Username: markus
  • Respect: +433
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2019, 02:41:11 am »
+4

I can often not really distinguish resigning from buying last Province for a loss. The games without resign are the ones with at least 2 Provinces left or 2 cards away from a 3-pile.
Logged

Jeebus

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2511
  • Shuffle iT Username: jeebus
  • Respect: +1630
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2019, 07:10:28 pm »
+1

markus says:



[fixed from earlier version]

I'm probably dumb, I don't get these stats. They seem to say that out of 43,898 games, P1 won 3,419 games. But that would be crazy.

JW

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 958
  • Shuffle iT Username: JW
  • Respect: +1760
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2019, 07:50:11 pm »
0



I'm probably dumb, I don't get these stats. They seem to say that out of 43,898 games, P1 won 3,419 games. But that would be crazy.

Many people will only end the game on their turn on a win, as opposed to ending the game on their turn in a loss. So when the game ends on player 2's turn, it means that player 2 ended the game on a win. Situations when you don't know if you'll win or lose (e.g., will Vineyards go up enough from buying that one last action) are pretty rare.
Logged

theblankman

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 461
  • Respect: +383
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2019, 07:52:41 pm »
+1

markus says:



[fixed from earlier version]

I'm probably dumb, I don't get these stats. They seem to say that out of 43,898 games, P1 won 3,419 games. But that would be crazy.
I read it as: Out of 43898 games, 20121 end on P2's turn. Of those 20121, 541 are ties, 3419 are P1 wins. Makes sense that P2 would not often choose to end the game with a P1 win. 1125 of those 3419 end by anything other than P2 resigning, and of those 1125, 1085 include Fleet.
Logged
it's a shame that full-random is the de facto standard

Jeebus

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2511
  • Shuffle iT Username: jeebus
  • Respect: +1630
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2019, 08:14:35 pm »
0

Ok, I see. Yeah, I thought something had to be inaccurate in the way it was described, but I couldn't figure out what.

infangthief

  • Duke
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 359
  • Shuffle iT Username: infangthief
  • Respect: +10000 (I wish)
  • Respect: +637
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2019, 08:13:25 am »
0

I'm not big into the data scene, so apologies if this has been asked before.

Using the records of games, can we determine what percentage of the time the first player wins in games where the players have had an equal number of turns?

As in games where the other player concedes on their turn?

Or games where there are [cough]three other players[/cough] and player four chooses to take second place.
Logged

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11790
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (。 ω 。`)
  • Respect: +12818
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2019, 10:54:24 am »
0

Or games where there are [cough]three other players[/cough] and player four chooses to take second place.

Players who choose to concede and force others to concede as well is one of the best reasons to not play 3p and higher.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

GendoIkari

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 9680
  • Respect: +10692
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2019, 11:53:26 am »
+2

Or games where there are [cough]three other players[/cough] and player four chooses to take second place.

Players who choose to concede and force others to concede as well is one of the best reasons to not play 3p and higher.

It is indeed one disadvantage; but one that almost every 3+ player board game has. Some have more obvious politics involved than others; but in almost any game; there is always the chance that a player making a poor decision will also hurt you and help a different opponent. This disadvantage is generally outweighed by the fun or interest of the game in question.
Logged
Check out my F.DS extension for Chrome! Card links; Dominion icons, and maybe more! http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=13363.0

Thread for Firefox version:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16305.0

Jeebus

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2511
  • Shuffle iT Username: jeebus
  • Respect: +1630
    • View Profile
Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2019, 12:19:29 pm »
0

Yeah, the added randomness is pretty much the only reason I prefer a lower player count in Dominion.
Pages: [1]
 

Page created in 0.085 seconds with 21 queries.