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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 404597 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #525 on: February 28, 2019, 02:01:32 pm »

He's got a healthy set of interactions, making it an actually informative lynch. 
Boo.
Yeah, I feel you, but it does increase utility of his lynch over e's.

Seriously, cross-reference the list of people who said I was crazy for advocating no-lynch because of all the information I'd be giving up against the list of people who are currently advocating lynch of 2.71, or are voting for chickenwarlord because of inactivity. 

That group of people is either scummy, or seriously not thinking through their no-lynch position.
Anz lynch we make will be informative because there will be 10 people who voted for that person. That's plenty of interaction. It is however completely backwards to want to lynch active players. Active players have interacted with lots of people, and this makes them easier to read once some of those people have flipped. On lurkers we won't have any more info D3 than we do now.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #526 on: February 28, 2019, 02:02:50 pm »

I think I can make the deadline. No promises though.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #527 on: February 28, 2019, 02:06:28 pm »

He's got a healthy set of interactions, making it an actually informative lynch. 
Boo.
Yeah, I feel you, but it does increase utility of his lynch over e's.

Seriously, cross-reference the list of people who said I was crazy for advocating no-lynch because of all the information I'd be giving up against the list of people who are currently advocating lynch of 2.71, or are voting for chickenwarlord because of inactivity. 

That group of people is either scummy, or seriously not thinking through their no-lynch position.
Anz lynch we make will be informative because there will be 10 people who voted for that person. That's plenty of interaction. It is however completely backwards to want to lynch active players. Active players have interacted with lots of people, and this makes them easier to read once some of those people have flipped. On lurkers we won't have any more info D3 than we do now.

Lynching active players also incentivizes lurking.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #528 on: February 28, 2019, 02:07:28 pm »

Same

Iíll be around some tomorrow, too
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #529 on: February 28, 2019, 02:54:07 pm »

I don't see what I'm saying as promoting "lynch active players."  It's frustrating to see that this is the message people are taking away.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #530 on: February 28, 2019, 03:09:52 pm »

Imagine that 10 people right now say

"vote: e
dunno, just feels off"

So e is lynched.  If e turns up town, how do we differentiate from people expression honest but lame reads, and people who used lame reads as cover?  Order on the wagon?? That introduces a ton of assumptions with little to no reasons why they might be true. ("well if I were scum, I'd vote early"  "but *I* would want to be late on the wagon as scum")

What if e turns up scum?  Well great scum doesn't want to lynch partners, so the wagon is towny! But if your partner were slowly becoming a lynch prospect, wouldn't you get on the wagon?  Well, AAA would and BBB wouldn't; CCC would defend their partner and DDD never would.  All we have is WIFOM, and any serious attempt at vote-count analysis is just disguised guesswork.

>>>

Y'all can't tell me how informative and important a lynch is, and at the same time let so many people explain their vote with "I just have a feeling".
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #531 on: February 28, 2019, 03:20:17 pm »

Imagine that 10 people right now say

"vote: e
dunno, just feels off"

So e is lynched.  If e turns up town, how do we differentiate from people expression honest but lame reads, and people who used lame reads as cover?  Order on the wagon?? That introduces a ton of assumptions with little to no reasons why they might be true. ("well if I were scum, I'd vote early"  "but *I* would want to be late on the wagon as scum")

What if e turns up scum?  Well great scum doesn't want to lynch partners, so the wagon is towny! But if your partner were slowly becoming a lynch prospect, wouldn't you get on the wagon?  Well, AAA would and BBB wouldn't; CCC would defend their partner and DDD never would.  All we have is WIFOM, and any serious attempt at vote-count analysis is just disguised guesswork.

>>>

Y'all can't tell me how informative and important a lynch is, and at the same time let so many people explain their vote with "I just have a feeling".

If that indeed happened I would scumread the last 3 votes to hell and back, because hammering someone for "feeling off" is incredibly scummy. Especially if he flipped scum. Really, you're completely underestimating town AND scum with that post, just because some people have done that doesn't mean they'll continue it when the wagon's much bigger...

I've also realized that faust moved from Robz to Jimmmmmmm and then said this:

I think there is some consolidation necessary beforehand then. I'm not sure we can rely on a burst of activity on a Saturday morning. Currently the following players have more than 1 vote on them:

e, shraeye, Awaclus, Jimmmmm

@everyone, do you think this could possibly be partner interaction? Because I think this post by faust could essencially say "let's only lynch these 4 people", which is pretty scummy if none of them are (his) scum team. Luckily there could still be scum there, but still...

Yes, yes, the read list is coming, but I think it's only useful to consider people that I think will actually get lynched...in fact I'll state those now: Jimmmmm, e, Didds, Space, LL, shraeye, Glooble, mcmc; in no particular order.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #532 on: February 28, 2019, 03:31:42 pm »

I think there is some consolidation necessary beforehand then. I'm not sure we can rely on a burst of activity on a Saturday morning. Currently the following players have more than 1 vote on them:

e, shraeye, Awaclus, Jimmmmm

@everyone, do you think this could possibly be partner interaction? Because I think this post by faust could essencially say "let's only lynch these 4 people", which is pretty scummy if none of them are (his) scum team. Luckily there could still be scum there, but still...

I don't think it is scummy, faust beat me to it posting that.

We definitely need to narrow our focus in. We need to get 10 people to vote on a lynch. That is hard. But we need to do it.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #533 on: February 28, 2019, 03:32:21 pm »

Imagine that 10 people right now say

"vote: e
dunno, just feels off"

So e is lynched.  If e turns up town, how do we differentiate from people expression honest but lame reads, and people who used lame reads as cover?  Order on the wagon?? That introduces a ton of assumptions with little to no reasons why they might be true. ("well if I were scum, I'd vote early"  "but *I* would want to be late on the wagon as scum")

What if e turns up scum?  Well great scum doesn't want to lynch partners, so the wagon is towny! But if your partner were slowly becoming a lynch prospect, wouldn't you get on the wagon?  Well, AAA would and BBB wouldn't; CCC would defend their partner and DDD never would.  All we have is WIFOM, and any serious attempt at vote-count analysis is just disguised guesswork.

>>>

Y'all can't tell me how informative and important a lynch is, and at the same time let so many people explain their vote with "I just have a feeling".
Not sure what you think changes if there are elaborate cases attached to the votes. The assumptions that you so fear go into any kind of wagon analysis.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #534 on: February 28, 2019, 03:32:49 pm »

Your list of 8 people who could get lynched is interesting to me
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #535 on: February 28, 2019, 03:33:52 pm »

And we can only do wagon analysis with an actual flip. Hence why lynching someone D1 is important
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #536 on: February 28, 2019, 03:36:54 pm »

I think there is some consolidation necessary beforehand then. I'm not sure we can rely on a burst of activity on a Saturday morning. Currently the following players have more than 1 vote on them:

e, shraeye, Awaclus, Jimmmmm

@everyone, do you think this could possibly be partner interaction? Because I think this post by faust could essencially say "let's only lynch these 4 people", which is pretty scummy if none of them are (his) scum team. Luckily there could still be scum there, but still...

I don't think it is scummy, faust beat me to it posting that.

We definitely need to narrow our focus in. We need to get 10 people to vote on a lynch. That is hard. But we need to do it.

Another point, I find that scum will usually include a teammate on a "people to lynch" post, then just not really go after that person
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #537 on: February 28, 2019, 03:41:08 pm »

And actually, speaking of moving off Robz,

Vote: Robz

1) posting about his meta off not being useful D1 and
2) his lazy vote on me that solidified my wagon as an actually viable lynch

Both things I can see scum!Robz doing. I know I said Robz was town for point 1 earlier, but I changed my mind
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #538 on: February 28, 2019, 03:44:20 pm »

And actually, speaking of moving off Robz,

Vote: Robz

1) posting about his meta off not being useful D1 and
2) his lazy vote on me that solidified my wagon as an actually viable lynch

Both things I can see scum!Robz doing. I know I said Robz was town for point 1 earlier, but I changed my mind

I don't know, I think he's just null...this just feels like OMGUS without saying it.

Probably a better lynch than mcmc, however. I'll add him to my list.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #539 on: February 28, 2019, 03:46:09 pm »

And actually, speaking of moving off Robz,

Vote: Robz

1) posting about his meta off not being useful D1 and
2) his lazy vote on me that solidified my wagon as an actually viable lynch

Both things I can see scum!Robz doing. I know I said Robz was town for point 1 earlier, but I changed my mind

I don't know, I think he's just null...this just feels like OMGUS without saying it.

Probably a better lynch than mcmc, however. I'll add him to my list.

Actually, I was thinking through who wasn't on your list and could be lynched and then thought how cool it would be to lynch them
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #540 on: February 28, 2019, 03:50:07 pm »

I am getting a weird feeling that Robz and MiX are partners.

His post regarding Faustís vote bucket he read (to me) as if he was saying Robz was a buddy with Faust or something, then didnít put him on his vote list, which is weird...

PPE: And now he just said he is reading Robz as null when he previously was  scumreading mcmc for pretty much the same crime?

I dunno, just a thought that is making my head itch.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #541 on: February 28, 2019, 03:51:13 pm »

I am getting a weird feeling that Robz and MiX are partners.

Way too early to call partners in my opinion. But you can totally test your theory and vote Robz
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #542 on: February 28, 2019, 03:54:40 pm »

I would rather lynch Jimmmm or LaLight than Robz.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #543 on: February 28, 2019, 03:56:19 pm »

I am getting a weird feeling that Robz and MiX are partners.

Way too early to call partners in my opinion. But you can totally test your theory and vote Robz

Oh, I know itís too early, certainly, I just enjoy throwing my thoughts at people. If itís gpong through my head it may as well be running through yours.

Vote: Robz

PPE

Ooh, interested in knowing why?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #544 on: February 28, 2019, 03:56:54 pm »

I am interested*
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #545 on: February 28, 2019, 03:57:21 pm »

I am getting a weird feeling that Robz and MiX are partners.

Way too early to call partners in my opinion. But you can totally test your theory and vote Robz

Oh, I know itís too early, certainly, I just enjoy throwing my thoughts at people. If itís gpong through my head it may as well be running through yours.

I think this is extremely townie
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #546 on: February 28, 2019, 03:57:46 pm »

Your list of 8 people who could get lynched is interesting to me

Right?

There seem to be significant oversights.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #547 on: February 28, 2019, 04:00:03 pm »

I would rather lynch Jimmmm or LaLight than Robz.

Whyís that?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #548 on: February 28, 2019, 04:07:52 pm »

I would rather lynch Jimmmm or LaLight than Robz.

Whyís that?

I just reread LL and would move back to him, but Iím not sure there are 8 others who would. He has contributed WAY less than normal. 

I often find myself thinking that lynching Robz wonít make much difference if heís not showing up. Itís not like weíll miss him. And it seems Jimmm is in that boat as well.  So, is there where one folks can/will coalesce around?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #549 on: February 28, 2019, 05:14:00 pm »

That is so adorable. FoS: LaLight, because having 2 votes is double the power!
What did I miss?

Are you the double voter MiX?

When I saw the 2 votes thing I assumed there was a claim I hadn't seen.
Yeah, that was my immediate assumption; and when I looked for it it wasn't there.  Hence my need for an explanation.  And if WestCoast hadn't popped in with the question "are you double voter?" I sure as heck would have.

When I saw the 2 votes thing I assumed there was a claim I hadn't seen.
Same here.

faust: Given all of the above, why did you (cherry?) pick my post? Could you not make the exact same argument of shraeye, WCD and Chicken?

The intent of my post was to support WCD in a situation that seemed a little sour. I agreed with her reaction to MiX and I disagreed with his reaction to her. I also agree that they seem likely to be both Town.
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