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[raerae]

raerae, how surprised are you to still be alive?

I'm not, really. My thought process is basically MiX's team can't kill me without having to play the "but it's too obvious, we never would have done that!" card, and the other team/faction/whatever has no incentive to kill me because I'm either alive to push MiX or dead so they can.

[MiX]

raerae, how surprised are you to still be alive?

faust, how surprised are you that raerae is still alive?

[ashersky]

SA, did you post the percentages for how likely it is for scum to be in the neighborhood?

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

[raerae]

@Space, Didds, and EFHW: Me vs MiX, is it town v town, scum v scum, or town v scum?

I'm curious, why us and how would this help?

You think it's going to hurt to give your opinions on this matter?

I don't have a strong feeling at all to help answer that question. I'm noticing you asked the other three female players.

That didn't have anything to do with who I asked, for whatever that's worth.

Vote: UoS

Wait, is it because UoS is the person I haven't expressed a read on/one of the three I mentioned above?  And, if so, do you think he's my partner?  And, if so, doesn't that mean you don't actually think we (you and I) are town v town?

[faust]

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

I can tell you that: 100%

[faust]

SA, did you post the percentages for how likely it is for scum to be in the neighborhood?

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

Thinking about this post some more, it seems clear that your scum read on me is based on a misunderstanding of probability. But since you won't listen to me, I'll leave this to Space.

[faust]

raerae, how surprised are you to still be alive?

faust, how surprised are you that raerae is still alive?

Mildly. She's an active participant in the game, more so than DatSwan and certainly more than chicken, and has not received much scrutiny so far.

[Uncleeurope]

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

I can tell you that: 100%

I stared at this for a solid too-long-amount-of-time before figuring out what was actually said.

[Uncleeurope]

Okay, a few questions for the group:

How does town proceed in a 3v2v4 scenario?

How does town proceed in a 2v1v6 scenario? (Obviously a much happier situation)

This is literally my first game with multiple baddie teams (yup, using the word team because saying scum sides doesn't feel right to me). And I don't know, (or care to deduce for myself, honestly) what the next steps should be to ensure town's survival.

What do we do now that the claiming thing didn't happen?

[faust]

What do we do now that the claiming thing didn't happen?

We should still force a claim. Scum Cops have too strong an incentive not to claim. Elim Garak is scummy for refusing to claim. We need to know who the Loved/Doublevoters are. Did anyone actually make an argument against claiming beyond "I'm opposed to anything faust suggests"?

[Uncleeurope]

I was opposed to you being granted sole custody of claim order randomly.

The claiming thing I am uncertain on.

The fact that, like, barely anyone acknowledged it is weird.

[SpaceAnemone]

SA, did you post the percentages for how likely it is for scum to be in the neighborhood?

For the SK+Maq scenario, there was a 55% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 45% chance of exactly one.
For the MU+Maq scenario, there was a 73% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 49% chance of exactly one.

Note that these are prior probabilities, meaning that we expect to have to update them as new information (e.g. flips) come into play. Also note that the chance of faust rolling scum is independent of the fact that he's in the neighbourhood. So it would be totally incorrect to conclude that since there was a >55% chance of there being a scum in the neighbourhood to start with, and now faust is the only possible non-scum left, that he will automatically have a >55% chance of being scum. That would be bad logic.

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

As faust says, it's 100%, because he's the only neighbour not to have flipped town already, so if there was a scum in the neighbourhood, it must have been him.

It is possible that some interaction with him being in the neighbourhood will have had an effect on game-play up to this point such that scum-neighbour!faust is more likely to have survived this long that town-neighbour!faust, thus breaking the independence, but that's all tied up in the part of gameplay that I can't model so well.

Also, faust had a point yesterday about the fact that we can be sure he's not the SK. That actually means that from the naive townie point of view, he's very slightly less likely to be scum on average than any of the rest of you. However, reads and gameplay ought to modulate that...

[EFHW]

What do we do now that the claiming thing didn't happen?

We should still force a claim. Scum Cops have too strong an incentive not to claim. Elim Garak is scummy for refusing to claim. We need to know who the Loved/Doublevoters are. Did anyone actually make an argument against claiming beyond "I'm opposed to anything faust suggests"?

What is the incentive for scum cops not to claim? I did in fact post a specific objection to claiming based on protecting the cops. You are saying the opposite here, so I would like to know your reasoning. 

Garak is almost certainly scum here. Town!Garak would have chosen lightning rod and would most likely have used it by now.

I can see a slight advantage to town of knowing who is Morn and Kai Winn.

[EFHW]

Ok, I am in favor of mass claim for the purpose of flushing out Garak. I am fine with faust running it.

[EFHW]

I was opposed to you being granted sole custody of claim order randomly.

The claiming thing I am uncertain on.

The fact that, like, barely anyone acknowledged it is weird.

Barely acknowledged what?

[EFHW]

Okay, a few questions for the group:

How does town proceed in a 3v2v4 scenario?

How does town proceed in a 2v1v6 scenario? (Obviously a much happier situation)

This is literally my first game with multiple baddie teams (yup, using the word team because saying scum sides doesn't feel right to me). And I don't know, (or care to deduce for myself, honestly) what the next steps should be to ensure town's survival.

What do we do now that the claiming thing didn't happen?

This post reads scummy to me. Multiball weakens the scumminess, but why is Eddie suddenly newb!helpless?

[SpaceAnemone]

As for the question of whether to claim, here's a list of the remaining players, and the remaining roles, with faust matched up as the remaining Ferengi.

2. UmbrageOfSnow
3. EFHW
7. WestCoastDidds
8. SpaceAnemone
10. MiX
11. faust -- Quark, not SK
12. ashersky
16. Uncleeurope
17. raerae

Chief Miles O'Brien -- mirror universe cop
Lt. Cmdr. Worf -- maquis cop
Lt. Jadzia Dax / Lt. Ezri Dax -- 1-shot deathproof
Elim Garak, a simple tailor -- 1-shot bus driver OR 1-shot lightning rod (his choice)
Vedek Antos Bariel -- Universal Backup (now known to be 1-shot vig or Roleblocker)
Captain Kasidy Yates -- 1-shot commuter
Morn - loved (stops working when he can’t be lynched without self-voting)
Kai Winn - 1-shot double voter (can't be concealed)


O'Brien is likely not to be useful since we may well not have MU. Worf seems pretty vital.

I'm curious about the fact that faust has been pushing the idea that we need to know who Morn and Kai Winn are, but not Dax, who also messes with town's ability to lynch effectively.

[EFHW]

*Multiball weakens the scumminess because even scum should feel like they have things to keep them busy, unlike in typical games, where they have to pretend to scumhunt.

[EFHW]

Good point about Dax.

[EFHW]

Shraeye was Bariel.

[EFHW]

I get a 47% a priori chance that there were three town in the neighborhood.  Sound right to you?

[EFHW]

For sk/Maquis. Only 29% for MU/Maquis.

In addition to no nk's being MU, the MU cop has come up empty 3 times. There could be overlap, of course, but the chances are likely less than 33% that we have MU.

[raerae]

I'm not averse to claiming but what are we going to do with that information once it's out? Say Ash is Worf, do we lunch him on the spot? It feels weird to just have that information with no contingency plan.

[EFHW]

Make that 45% and 27%.

[SpaceAnemone]

Shraeye was Bariel.

Oops! Sorry :-(

In my defense, if I weren't so fuzzy-headed, I'd be at the anti-Brexit march in London, rather than posting on here at all.

Feel free to fix my list :-)