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[silverspawn]

                                       Vote Count 3.4.2

faust (2): Debatepro, silverspawn
silverspawn (2): faust, EFHW
Joseph2302 (2): Uncleeurope, raerae
Debatepro (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (2): arishipshape, shraeye

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 ends February 21, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.

Coming to think of it, it is very convenient for you to claim that EFHW is scum, because it also allows you to disregard her results on eddie and me. That's three people you can scumread who I suspect are all town.

I don't claim that EFHW is scum.

Really? What's all of that pushing her lynch that I remember then?

But fine. Then give me some credit for the result. Why does no-one care about investigative results this game?

[silverspawn]

vote: ariship

With faust's latest posts, ari is now the scummiest player in the thread by a landslide. This can be done with only one of two ICs behind it.

[silverspawn]

I assume Arishipshape is still off the table?

In that case it looks like Joseph, Silver, Debatepro, or me.

With the elimination of Faust per raerae and the elimination of EFHW by shraeye, so who are you people leaning towards? I would like to get a handle on his before it becomes too close to deadline.

Honestly any of those four other than myself could work for me, (obviously) with preference towards Joseph, (obviously).

Yes, as far as I'm concerned Ari is still off the table.

you know if you take all of the scum out of the pool, that makes it significantly harder to lynch scum.

[silverspawn]

But I think it makes him townier though, I feel like he sees himself as a dead man walking.  If ari is scum and faust is town, I think scumari (with townfaust) jummmpps at the chance that suspicion/lynch-potential is swinging off him and somewhere else.  This ari is not re-energized scum excited for a mislynch.

This is completely backwads. scum is more likely to resign and just consider themselves a dead man walking because they know they are in fact guilty. As town, you are way more likely to think that the rest of town has finally seen reason.

[silverspawn]

This reluctance from everyone wrt ariship is fairly maddening.

[faust]

Coming to think of it, it is very convenient for you to claim that EFHW is scum, because it also allows you to disregard her results on eddie and me. That's three people you can scumread who I suspect are all town.

I don't claim that EFHW is scum.

Really? What's all of that pushing her lynch that I remember then?

But fine. Then give me some credit for the result. Why does no-one care about investigative results this game?

I think we all care very much about mail-mi's result. I think EFHW's role is a red herring in this setup.

[faust]

This reluctance from everyone wrt ariship is fairly maddening.

You were making an argument from beauty on setup probability. There is a similar argument from beauty to make ari's role town rather than scum.

[faust]

silver, who do you think that the scum team is if you suppose that I am town?

[silverspawn]

silver, who do you think that the scum team is if you suppose that I am town?

1. ari
2. ship
3. shape
/s

excellent question. By PoE it can only be EFHW or debatepro or eddie or Joseph. I would say eddie & Joseph despite the innocent result and your defense which had convincing parts. The other two are just too unlikely.

Though I still think you're scum, I'm just a bit less confident, the outbust at shraey made a lot of sense from town!you. He has this dismissive tone which might actually work in town's favor by provoking people. but you're capable of emulating that (or just being mad at it despite being scum).

[Joseph2302]

vote: ariship

With faust's latest posts, ari is now the scummiest player in the thread by a landslide. This can be done with only one of two ICs behind it.

Finally a wagon that makes sense
Vote: ari
Said all day that they're scummy, and the reads lists just showed that scum have given up on protecting ari and were just busting them

[Joseph2302]

This reluctance from everyone wrt ariship is fairly maddening.

You were making an argument from beauty on setup probability. There is a similar argument from beauty to make ari's role town rather than scum.

Ari hasn't played very towny and they seem resigned to their fate that everyone knows that they're scum
I don't think town would give up this easily as ari seems to have done

[EFHW]

I'm saying that I personally suspect Joseph is scum.  But whether that opinion is right or wrong, one would be crazy to call Joseph's actions in this game "towny".  So towny that they deserve a defense from a not-Joseph person. 

But faust did give that defense. In a fashion that stunk to high heaven.

Scum!faust didn't need to make the Joseph case at all. And he doesn't say Joseph is pro town. To me his case sounds like he is scumhunting.

[Joseph2302]

I'm saying that I personally suspect Joseph is scum.  But whether that opinion is right or wrong, one would be crazy to call Joseph's actions in this game "towny".  So towny that they deserve a defense from a not-Joseph person. 

But faust did give that defense. In a fashion that stunk to high heaven.

Scum!faust didn't need to make the Joseph case at all. And he doesn't say Joseph is pro town. To me his case sounds like he is scumhunting.

Exactly. That was my point for town!faust as well. Glad there's now 3 people seeing that

[EFHW]

Yeah, it's definitely not as helpful as engaging would be. 

But I think it makes him townier though, I feel like he sees himself as a dead man walking.  If ari is scum and faust is town, I think scumari (with townfaust) jummmpps at the chance that suspicion/lynch-potential is swinging off him and somewhere else.  This ari is not re-energized scum excited for a mislynch.

Voting with the IC is a tried and true scum tactic.

[EFHW]

EFHW, what are your thoughts on UncleEurope?

Towny

[EFHW]

I'm willing to vote ari.

[faust]

I don't think ari is the best shot, but he's a liability as town and his flip gives additional setup info to figure out the EFHW situation, so it's not the worst thing ever and much better than me or Joseph.

I still don't know why people do not want to vote silver.

[Debatepro]

I don't think ari is the best shot, but he's a liability as town and his flip gives additional setup info to figure out the EFHW situation, so it's not the worst thing ever and much better than me or Joseph.
I still don't know why people do not want to vote silver.

Because he's been right about reads on the town people who have been lynched? Read on Mix (#449) && pleading with people to jump off DS (1496) and join him on Ari wagon.

He is also right about me! So as a new player, these are probably the most convincing pieces of evidence that one can go off of in a game without a single scum lynched.

[faust]

I don't think ari is the best shot, but he's a liability as town and his flip gives additional setup info to figure out the EFHW situation, so it's not the worst thing ever and much better than me or Joseph.
I still don't know why people do not want to vote silver.

Because he's been right about reads on the town people who have been lynched? Read on Mix (#449) && pleading with people to jump off DS (1496) and join him on Ari wagon.

He is also right about me! So as a new player, these are probably the most convincing pieces of evidence that one can go off of in a game without a single scum lynched.

You know who has a good chance of being right about people because they know everyone's alignment?

[raerae]

Slept on it and it doesn't feel right.

Unvote

[raerae]

EFHW, what are your thoughts on UncleEurope?

Towny

Why are you voting for silver? You got the same result on him as you did on Eddie.

[raerae]

I can't shake it.

Vote: EFHW

[Debatepro]

I don't think ari is the best shot, but he's a liability as town and his flip gives additional setup info to figure out the EFHW situation, so it's not the worst thing ever and much better than me or Joseph.
I still don't know why people do not want to vote silver.

Because he's been right about reads on the town people who have been lynched? Read on Mix (#449) && pleading with people to jump off DS (1496) and join him on Ari wagon.

He is also right about me! So as a new player, these are probably the most convincing pieces of evidence that one can go off of in a game without a single scum lynched.

You know who has a good chance of being right about people because they know everyone's alignment?

(Reversal) So we're at the point in the game where presenting a case and being right about it makes you scum.

DS is a decent player. SS was skeptical of DS's case against EFHW and he even voted for DS. I don't think scum would push people to lynch a "lesser player", especially sense he already had plenty of cover to vote for DS.

I know you can come up with a bunch of reasons, which I could copy and paste as a response to your responses for your defenses/reads.

I get a question now. For both Ari, Joseph, and EFHW what do we learn if we lynch them and the end up town or scum? What conclusions should we draw about them and their partners? Ill make you a worksheet for your answers.

Ari (Scum):
Ari (Town):
Joseph(Scum):
Joseph(Town):
EFHW(Scum):
EFHW(Town):

[Debatepro]

Think this is right - Updating from post #2001 - Vote Count 3.4.1 (db8)

Arishipshape (2): Silverspawn, Joseph2302
silverspawn (2): faust, EFHW
EFHW (1): raerae
faust (1): Debatepro
Joseph2302 (1): Uncleeurope

Not Voting (1): arishipshape


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends February 21, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.

Data:
Shraeye revote faust #2055
Shraeye unvote #2079
Raeyae vote Joseph #2086
Silverspawn vote Ari #2102
Joseph vote Ari #2110
Raeyae unvote #2120
Raeyae vote EFHW #2122

Intent to vote:
Ari for faust #2060

[faust]

(Reversal) So we're at the point in the game where presenting a case and being right about it makes you scum.

No, I never said him being right makes him scummy, but it's easy to be right as scum. D1 we had no wagons on scum, so scum could easily afford to be right about stuff. Correct townreads don't cost scum much of anything. A correct scumread would be something else, but we have no evidence of this.

DS is a decent player. SS was skeptical of DS's case against EFHW and he even voted for DS. I don't think scum would push people to lynch a "lesser player", especially sense he already had plenty of cover to vote for DS.

So silver is townie for reading DatSwan correctly, and he is also townie for misreading him? Great. silver didn't push anyone, it was clear that DatSwan would be lynch, he just did not want to take heat for that lynch.

I get a question now. For both Ari, Joseph, and EFHW what do we learn if we lynch them and the end up town or scum? What conclusions should we draw about them and their partners? Ill make you a worksheet for your answers.

Ari (Scum): EFHW is town. You are probably town. Most likely partners, in that order: Eddie, silver, you, Joseph.
Ari (Town): EFHW looks worse. silver looks even worse. Eddie seems townie. Scum team: you, silver, EFHW with an outside chance of Eddie replacing EFHW.
Joseph(Scum): Would require an evaluation of that wagon. ari is probably townier. silver seems like a good partner option. Partner in order of likelihood: silver, Eddie, you, EFHW, ari. Also I will probably be lynched next.
Joseph(Town): Nothing that we don't already know. I guess depending on who the counter-wagon is it may be possible to draw some conclusions.
EFHW(Scum): ari is town. If EFHW flips scum Motion Detector, then Eddie is town. silver seems townier. Most likely partners: you, Eddie (if EFHW does not flip MD), Joseph, silver, Eddie (if EFHW flips MD)
EFHW(Town): Noone except me and raerae really suspected EFHW today, so I would have to see how this lynch happened. Scum team is silver, you, Eddie.