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[faust]

I think scum!EFHW claims Tracker over Motion Detector there 100% of the time. Unless she is actually a scum Motion Detector, in which case it makes zero sense for her to have targeted scumpartner!Eddie and little sense to claim to save town!Eddie.

We're just going to disagree on that for a minute then. How do you feel about a third faction and debate? Separate entities or the same, take it as you will.

There is currently no evidence for a third faction, so I am treating this as town v mafia.

Debate is tough. With three scum I am reasonably sure that 2 are ari/silver, and then the third would be Joseph or Debate. Between the two I am currently leaning towards Debate being scummier, but there would need to be some reevaluation of this.

[faust]

A propos third factions, I found this hilarious:

Small aside: my crazy conspiracy theory is that faust is SK.    Now, I don't even KNOW if there is an SK, but if there is, then that's who I suspect.

considering that in the first Philosopher's Mafia, Nietzsche actually was the SK.

[EFHW]

@Debate - You are taking the POE (process of elimination) a bit personally. There is no information to discount your being scum, so you are in the list. You aren't getting much pressure or suspicion at all so far. mail-mi's breadcrumbs were not meaningful yesterday because he could have been doing them as scum. I saw them and felt it was 50/50. faust's response to me about his mail-mi case makes sense and his suspecting mail-mi even though mail-mi townread raerae is NAI.

[EFHW]

Also, your townreading raerae early on is not indication that you are town. As scum, you could pick a townie to support to make yourself seem townier. That's called white knighting.

[raerae]

 

@Debate - You are taking the POE (process of elimination) a bit personally. There is no information to discount your being scum, so you are in the list. You aren't getting much pressure or suspicion at all so far. mail-mi's breadcrumbs were not meaningful yesterday because he could have been doing them as scum. I saw them and felt it was 50/50. faust's response to me about his mail-mi case makes sense and his suspecting mail-mi even though mail-mi townread raerae is NAI.

You saw them and yet were surprised he was the NK? And you had to go look to see if he breadcrumbed? So which is it? Did you see them like you're claiming now or were you really surprised and had to go look for them like you were claiming below?

Agree, scumpoints to ari for that intro.

mail-mi is a surprising choice, given that he had significant suspicion yesterday, we have an IC, and my claim was generally seen as towny. Did mail-mi claim and I missed it? He did soft claim a pr very loudly. I'll check when at a computer if he breadcrumbed an N1 result.

[silverspawn]

This is not too hard, really. shraeye is town. raerae is town. EFHW I really doubt that she would do that fakeclaim as scum. Which in turn renders Eddie townie. This shrinks the lynchpool to just

ari, silver, Joseph, Debatepro, faust

I am also town, which granted may not be obvious to you. Thus we have 4 people to pick from for scum. PoE is strong here. And this is also why I think a massclaim will do no good.

I'm not buying it, because if what you say is true then I know the scum are ari, silver, and joseph which isn't likely because SS pushed ari hard in the last day. ...

silver pushing ari hard doesn't earn silver townpoints or make them unlikely partners. Scum!ari was a likely lynch anyway, being new scum, and his dying would disable the Neapolitan and maybe make silver look towny  which was the conclusion you drew.

Oh come on. Imagine you were ari's scum buddy for a moment, assuming that he is indeed scum. Would you really try to make a case on him, out of nowhere, when he was townread before and he has a role such that his death benefits your team which everyone would see once he flipped?

This just feels like you wanting to keep the lynch pool open. If starting a case on a scum is not towny, then what is?

[silverspawn]

Not to mention that scum tends to bus to much, as I've said many times.

[silverspawn]

Which BTW I don't think mail-mi was that good in this game.  If I was scum and my choice was between mail-mi with a hypothetical PR role (one of my ExperiencedScumBuddy would have had to point it out) and town.faust, would you really kill mail-mi always in that instance? Maybe, hoping town can't believe faust is still in the game as a town player and they mislynch. But you give the wizard 7 more days to figure out the entire scum team. I don't think it's such a cut and dry case.

If scum did in fact know that mail-mi was a neap, I think they're very likely to kill him over faust, or the IC. Doesn't really matter how well mail-mi was playing. A Neap is only a little bit worse than a cop in this situation. Even one additional resultw ould have helped us quite a lot.

Like, imagine there we had a neap result on faust right now. Whether VT or not VT, either would be a game changer.

[Debatepro]

@Debate - You are taking the POE (process of elimination) a bit personally.

You can't blanket my entire post with "he's taking it too personally." It's a neat trick to disregard the information and power of my argument in hopes that people don't read it carefully.

There is no information to discount your being scum, so you are in the list.

The whole point of my post is there is information to discount the claim that I am scum. I think the "evidence" is much better than yours which is an assertion you have a PR and that eddie is town. If scum!efhw, you would already know eddie is town, if eddie is scum, why would he argue with you. The probability that someone had a PR and targeted eddie at the same time you did in N1 is so low, especially since you even factored in the town had two masons into the equation. You can take the risk of asserting it the PR in this case.

Also, your townreading raerae early on is not indication that you are town. As scum, you could pick a townie to support to make yourself seem townier. That's called white knighting.

So mail-mi's weak sauce that raerae is town is a legit 50/50 breadcrumb, but my elaborate defense of the case with hyperlinks to posts is white knighting? I'm not sure there was a credible case that he was the neap from the breadcrumb, but what do I know I voted for him to "pressure him to get into the game and do more to help town."

PPE: What raerae said #1655.

[faust]

Hmmm.

Vote: ari

[faust]

Plus I think EFHW should claim what she did last night.

[raerae]

I'm not voting ari today. He's had too much attention for too long and I'm interested mistrustful of wagons that gain speed that quickly and his role makes sense with mail-mi's. I know that doesn't guarantee he's town but I'm not going there today.

[EFHW]

I'm not claiming what I did now. The main use of it is to keep scum honest/catch scum lying. Claiming now just helps them fakeclaim better.

[EFHW]

I saw mail-mi's PR soft-claims. I didn't know what PR and I didn't see the pointing to raerae as town. I thought he could be fake-soft-claiming, so I only took it seriously when we had his flip. His actual PR was good, but I don't think it warranted the level of threat he was suggesting his lynch would mean.

[EFHW]

Debate - you are misunderstanding me quite a bit. I'm not sure how to clear it up. But your townreading raerae is not a towntell.

[Uncleeurope]

I'm not voting ari today. He's had too much attention for too long and I'm interested mistrustful of wagons that gain speed that quickly and his role makes sense with mail-mi's. I know that doesn't guarantee he's town but I'm not going there today.

We haven’t gone there for two days, and he has been mostly ignored all game from my perspective. With him only having a wagon yesterday because the people who wanted DatSwan to live needed an alternative. (Very possible that I am just paranoid about this point, other people might perceive the situation differently...)

I think Ari is an extremely solid place to look for a scum today, and everyone’s insistence that he is trustworthy baffles me. If we give this guy another daypass...

I would be surprised if he were town at this point.

[EFHW]

You saw them and yet were surprised he was the NK? And you had to go look to see if he breadcrumbed? So which is it? Did you see them like you're claiming now or were you really surprised and had to go look for them like you were claiming below?

I fully expected our active and effective IC to be the nk target. Or maybe me, since I had an investigative role. Or faust, just because. mail-mi was a possible mislynch. But since they knew mail-mi was town, I guess his PR hints would have been more convincing to them, so they eliminated him.

[raerae]

I'm not voting ari today. He's had too much attention for too long and I'm interested mistrustful of wagons that gain speed that quickly and his role makes sense with mail-mi's. I know that doesn't guarantee he's town but I'm not going there today.

We haven’t gone there for two days, and he has been mostly ignored all game from my perspective. With him only having a wagon yesterday because the people who wanted DatSwan to live needed an alternative. (Very possible that I am just paranoid about this point, other people might perceive the situation differently...)

I think Ari is an extremely solid place to look for a scum today, and everyone’s insistence that he is trustworthy baffles me. If we give this guy another daypass...

I would be surprised if he were town at this point.

Were we even playing the same game yesterday?? People were in ari basically from the first post of the day, not strictly as an alternative to a mail-mi lunch.

[Uncleeurope]

In the final chunk of yesterday the only people who actually thought Ari was scum was Faust, silver and I. Everyone else on that wagon was much more begrudging, and mentioned unhappiness with the wagons. That’s how I remember it anyway. And 3/11 people seems very low for an assertion that his attention was huge.

[Debatepro]

Debate - you are misunderstanding me quite a bit. I'm not sure how to clear it up. But your townreading raerae is not a towntell.

Perhaps. I wasn't responding to faust's PoE. I was responding to Raerae's comment Mail-mi's breadcrumb more like loaves of bread. Which BTW, you need disagree with as well, else your "suspected" but 50/50 on mail-mi PR cover-story is worse than sub-optimal.

I agree ari's suspicious and the easy lynch but I'm still not convinced.  I am highly suspicious of everybody claiming complete ignorance to mail-mi being the cop.  He wasn't dropping breadcrumbs, he was throwing whole loaves at anybody who would listen. 

Let's play a hypothetical game....I'm going to save you the obvious, it's not a hypothetical game, it actually happened that way. Check it out for yourself. Also, what is more likely, debatepro is town or he crafted this elaborate defense hundreds of posts in advance with no live coaching?

Also, It's not just that I townread raerae, it's that I did and used it as the basis for most of my interactions in D2. Everyone can see my play up until this point in the game, it's mostly rubbish. That I would have built a town case raerae and use it as a basis from my reads on other players in the game, just to come back in D3 and use it as a defense is beyond absurd.
1. I'm not that good. Read my posts, questions, and analysis if you think i am.
2. ExperincedScumBuddy isn't around in the day to help prevent me from F'ing it up.

[Uncleeurope]

I really dislike the constant references to an “imaginary” scumbuddy from you. Seems exactly like the kind of play I would make.

[Debatepro]

I really dislike the constant references to an “imaginary” scumbuddy from you. Seems exactly like the kind of play I would make.

Since i just skimmed your other two games and you were town in both, I'll take it as a compliment.

[EFHW]

Debate - you are misunderstanding me quite a bit. I'm not sure how to clear it up. But your townreading raerae is not a towntell.

Perhaps. I wasn't responding to faust's PoE. I was responding to Raerae's comment Mail-mi's breadcrumb more like loaves of bread. Which BTW, you need disagree with as well, else your "suspected" but 50/50 on mail-mi PR cover-story is worse than sub-optimal.

I agree ari's suspicious and the easy lynch but I'm still not convinced.  I am highly suspicious of everybody claiming complete ignorance to mail-mi being the cop.  He wasn't dropping breadcrumbs, he was throwing whole loaves at anybody who would listen. 

Let's play a hypothetical game....I'm going to save you the obvious, it's not a hypothetical game, it actually happened that way. Check it out for yourself. Also, what is more likely, debatepro is town or he crafted this elaborate defense hundreds of posts in advance with no live coaching?

Also, It's not just that I townread raerae, it's that I did and used it as the basis for most of my interactions in D2. Everyone can see my play up until this point in the game, it's mostly rubbish. That I would have built a town case raerae and use it as a basis from my reads on other players in the game, just to come back in D3 and use it as a defense is beyond absurd.
1. I'm not that good. Read my posts, questions, and analysis if you think i am.
2. ExperincedScumBuddy isn't around in the day to help prevent me from F'ing it up.

I don't need to defend anything. What you call a "cover story" is what happened. If it doesn't satisfy you, then fine. I don't expect everyone to believe me. I think my claim should be believed, but clearly it is not universally, so I accept that. I don't have proof of anything. And neither do you.

[Joseph2302]

I'm busy today, kind of following but will contribute tomorrow
I support mass claim followed by EFHW claiming results

[Debatepro]

Quick update on VC.

Vote Count 3.11
silverspawn (1): Faust (#1615)
arishipshape (2): Uncleeurope, Faust (#1660)
Joseph2302 (1): EFHW
EFHW (1): raerae (#1618)
Faust (1): Debatepro (#1636)

Not Voting (4): silverspawn, Joseph2302, arishipshape, shraeye

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 begins now and ends February 21, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.