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[jotheonah]

Vote Count 1.7


MiX (4): Debatepro, shraeye, raerae, arishipshape
raerae (2): LaLight, Joseph2302
shraeye (1): MiX
mail-mi (1): DatSwan
DatSwan (2): faust, silverspawn
arishipshape (1): Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): mail-mi, EFHW

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends February 01, 2019, 05:00:00 pm

[Debatepro]

ss's defence on me almost splits the day in two, the before and after reply #444. This consolidates my townread on ss.

Smashes ss's defence on me & other things

@Debatepro, do you think ss is scummy for that defense?

Yes. However, i see that the tone and phasing of some of my comments were sub-optimal.

I find the emphatic defense of your play, given that we've never played with you before, highly suspicious. I mean you are "possible town" to everyone. Why would another "possible town' emphatically defense another "possible town" at this point. It makes more sense to hedge your bets so you don't go down with a scum on a misread. Especially, when MiX has played in a way that is often considered 'book' scum. A town wouldn't do that, a scum might be over the top about it because the "no scum would be so overt" is a compelling to most but a flawed argument.

Coupled with what I see as contradictory statements, warrant-less votes/scum reads, and some dubious reasoning sends it over the for me.

I'll say it again, I don't think I'm wrong, but I'll put on the idiot hat if I am... and we can all get a good laugh at my expense.   

[faust]

Anyway I don't think it's just activity. She has spent a considerable amount of energy on stuff like compiling things people found scummy about you, she just has nothing to show for it.

Many research studies end up with negative results. Only the exciting findings are publishable.

True. But if you don't publish, your funding will run out... and you will be lynched.

[faust]

Debatepro, do you think silverspawn is scum? What about me?

[Debatepro]

Debatepro, do you think silverspawn is scum? What about me?

If you are not scum then I assume there is a probability greater most that you would be lynched in N1.

So I'm waiting for the end of N1 to give you a thorough evaluation.

As a newb, I kind of feel I only have enough energy and confidence in my ability be outspoken about one highly regarded and good player in D1. And only when I had an initial early perception/read and I felt like it was confirmed.

[faust]

And only when I had an initial early perception/read and I felt like it was confirmed.

This is dangerous. You should try to be wary of confirmation bias.

[Debatepro]

And only when I had an initial early perception/read and I felt like it was confirmed.

This is dangerous. You should try to be wary of confirmation bias.

Right i said that could be the case already. I haven't changed my vote and it would probably take a monumental blunder by someone or good arguments [claims, data, warrants] move me off MiX. However, I find several of the claims and arguments for him as dubious and shallow.

It's also surprising that some of the more experienced players aren't questioning some of these claims/arguments.

[faust]

And only when I had an initial early perception/read and I felt like it was confirmed.

This is dangerous. You should try to be wary of confirmation bias.

Right i said that could be the case already. I haven't changed my vote and it would probably take a monumental blunder by someone or good arguments [claims, data, warrants] move me off MiX. However, I find several of the claims and arguments for him as dubious and shallow.

It's also surprising that some of the more experienced players aren't questioning some of these claims/arguments.

That is extraordinarily vague. Can you give some examples of cases where you found things dubious and shallow?

[MiX]

Especially, when MiX has played in a way that is often considered 'book' scum. A town wouldn't do that, a scum might be over the top about it because the "no scum would be so overt" is a compelling to most but a flawed argument.

Can you point out my obvious scum ways? Actually you can't, since they don't exist...oh, I wonder how this will be interpreted.

Debatepro, do you think silverspawn is scum? What about me?

As a newb, I kind of feel I only have enough energy and confidence in my ability be outspoken about one highly regarded and good player in D1. And only when I had an initial early perception/read and I felt like it was confirmed.

And who is that? Not ss, I'm assuming...not faust either...if you had said it before I apologize, but I don't think you did.

ss's defence on me almost splits the day in two, the before and after reply #444. This consolidates my townread on ss.

What? All silver did in #444 was reiterate what I had already said.

Huh? Sure, you said my wagon is bad but not in the way ss did, he explained it further, in a way that I think everyone understands. If you have examples for you saying the same, show me.

[faust]

Huh? Sure, you said my wagon is bad but not in the way ss did, he explained it further, in a way that I think everyone understands. If you have examples for you saying the same, show me.

Assuming first MiX is town.

If there are vets among the scum -- which is very likely -- are they likely to join the wagon?

I'm thinking no. At least I don't think I would want to join it. Instinctively, I would feel like this wagon won't lead to a lynch (too early, wagon too weird, case too weak) and so I have no reason to be on it. It looks better in future analysis if I'm not.

Assuming MiX is scum, it would take more guts to stay off it. Scum might now feel pressured to bus. This might be far fetched, but I'm thinking that I'll take the lack of vets on the wagon as evidence for MiX being town.


Other thought: if MiX is town, then this wagon pretty much gives everyone on the scum team full cover. (re: scum loves this wagon). No scum will feel any pressure right now. Which feels like it fits with how the game is going. They'll just stand there and be delighted in all the talk about MiX

I will not accept being the mislynch: I am very easily the most active player in the entire game, removing me from the game now is the biggest mistake town could make.

Seconded. Scum loves all this attention on MiX.

I did not say all the stuff about how vets not being on the wagon is a sign of you being town, but that's moot anyway since the premise (no vets on wagon) was wrong.

[faust]

Random other thought: Does silver's mistaking raerae/shraeye for newbs mean we can exclude silver/raerae, silver/shraeye as possible scum pairings?

[raerae]

Thanks, that helps clear it up, I still disagree but at least I understand fully what I'm disagreeing with.

DS, you didn't answer my question.  But while you're at it, why don't you tell me what we should have done if faust had claimed "not town aligned" or "third party aligned" or whatever you think the other option was please?

@DatSwan, seems like you missed this again.
Also, below is your original read on faust and what I'm questioning, not your read in general but your enthusiasm for his towniness.  That's what's questionable to me and what makes me suspicious of you.  And, you're right, I'm not new to the game, which is exactly why I'm pushing you so hard on this.  We don't need to discuss it any further, thanks to uncle's explanation, but FoS on you.  To answer your other question, I feel okay about faust, he's moving things along and asking good questions.  I don't know that that makes him town but it doesn't make him our D1 lynch.

faust: Someone pointed out I could not possibly be right about my restriction thing with faust because of the set up. Obviously correct, oversight on my end. To further on that point though, really really really weird for faust. LL came in and asked the money question ("faust - are you town aligned). So faust has no backdoor for being some third faction and fake claiming or whatever at this point... so super hard town lean on him as of now. I know that is gonna come off as some weak ass reasoning to players that have not played with faust, but just go like read... any other game ever.. it will make sense.

Anyway, let's talk EFHW. I am somewhat irritated by the fact that she hasn't really got much scrutiny at all.

I agree her play is strange, and it has been years so maybe her meta has changed, but I feel like scum!EFHW would be trying harder?  She never struck me as a "sit back and jump on wagons" sort of scum.

True. But if you don't publish, your funding will run out... and you will be lynched.

+1

Random other thought: Does silver's mistaking raerae/shraeye for newbs mean we can exclude silver/raerae, silver/shraeye as possible scum pairings?

Not sure I'm allowed to have an opinion on this but it does make sense.  If you didn't know your scumpartners the first thing you would do would be to introduce yourself and your experience level.

@raerae, after ss's defence, do you still think your vote belongs on me? If so, why?

Nope, doesn't change anything, especially since I'm one of the vets on the wagon.  Also, the whole "defense" is hedgey.  If you're scum your partners would bus but they wouldn't want to be on the wagon because it won't lead to a lynch but if you're town they'll want to be on it.  It's just weird, not as strong as you want it to be for me.

[Joseph2302]

Random other thought: Does silver's mistaking raerae/shraeye for newbs mean we can exclude silver/raerae, silver/shraeye as possible scum pairings?

For now I guess, as it could be a double bluff

[EFHW]

I've now reread LaLight and raerae, and it looks like I won't be getting tenure. I'll share my summaries when I can.

[arishipshape]

@DebatoPro and ari, you need to start figuring out that disagreeing with you is not scummy. Right now you are very frustrating to talk to.

I'm totally fine with being frustrating to those I believe to be scum. Any townies having trouble with me?

I've read all that has been exchanged, and my mind has not changed. Sorry for the inactivity today, I had to take a practice ACT.

[silverspawn]

I didn't think of myself as defending MiX, actually. I was assuming the wagon wouldn't be around much longer anyway and was trying to steer the conversation somewhere else.

I also wasn't making an appeal to authority. Debatepro said this and I want to make sure it doesn't become a thing anyone else believes. My post was just "look, there seems to be a near perfect split of players with all vets being off wagon, isn't that kind of interesting?" I didn't draw any conclusions about it except some weak theorizing about how the scum team would treat the wagon. It's kind of moot now since the observation wasn't even correct, but nonetheless, I didn't say and didn't mean to say that the wagon was bad because no vets are on it.

wrt EFHW: the last game I played with her, she had one of the towniest appearance I've ever seen and was scum. (I believe there was another game some months ago where it was similar, though less extreme). The lesson I draw from that is to forget about all classical tells and start by looking whether she feels similar to different to past games.

Right now she certainly feels different from last game, and she was scum there as I said. -> Not interested in voting for her.

[silverspawn]

So let's see.

Strong Town Read:  Debatepro, arishipshape

Mild Town Read: EFHW, MiX

Null: faust, mail-mi, Uncleeurope, DatSwan, Joseph2302, shraeye

Mild scum: raerae, LaLight

Only putting Lalight at mild scum because he's so very absent, and afaik he prefers playing town to scum. Alignment-dependent low motivation could be a thing. Especially since he feels similar about the kind of content as I do; in that situation you have less motivation to do anything as scum, because you can probably get away with it, and you don't mind if you don't really keep track of what's happening so much. I distinctly remember feeling that way in past games.

Actually, that sounds kind of convincing. Anyone want to vote: LaLight?

[Debatepro]

@DebatoPro and ari, you need to start figuring out that disagreeing with you is not scummy. Right now you are very frustrating to talk to.

This is a mis-characterization of my statements.

I think some people are skimming and not thinking about what I am have said because I am new. Yes, I am newb town through-and-through, some of my points are probably naive, but I know how to make and evaluate statements [claim/data/warrant] and at this point I see sub-optimal and null statements being made by some. 

I don't think I'm the only one...

inb4 he's scum and I'm dead wrong. But my gut also says town. Plus the attention thing faust mentioned is a good point.

let's vote: DatSwan. I hope your reads are better this game than last @faust

Seems somewhat disingenuous considering I have expressed a scumread on you.

[Debatepro]

I also wasn't making an appeal to authority. Debatepro said this and I want to make sure it doesn't become a thing anyone else believes. My post was just "look, there seems to be a near perfect split of players with all vets being off wagon, isn't that kind of interesting?" I didn't draw any conclusions about it except some weak theorizing about how the scum team would treat the wagon. It's kind of moot now since the observation wasn't even correct, but nonetheless, I didn't say and didn't mean to say that the wagon was bad because no vets are on it.

That's how the "non-vets" took it especially when it's coupled with "weak theorizing". Being incorrect about your "observation" is somewhat interesting, is it common for highly regarded and skilled players to make ~mistakes~ like that?

Perhaps this is how the game of mafia is played by both sides.

[mail-mi]

hello.

I will take some time now and look over stuff.

For now, I don't really think MiX is scum. I haven't read him very carefully yet, but he seems like he might be like me when I was new--super scummy because I didn't know what was scummy or not.

[mail-mi]

Partway through a reread, I don't like faust's start with the constant philosophical quotes. Town!faust doesn't have too much of a motive to change his meta, but scum!faust would (so he doesn't get caught later). For now vote: faust but we'll see what the rest of this read brings me.

[mail-mi]

Joseph doesn't seem to be posting a lot of actual content; just jokes and stuff. Not sure what it says about my read on him, but it doesn't increase his towniness.

[mail-mi]

Also it seems MiX has played elsewhere before, and this "elsewhere" place probably has a different environment and a different attitude about what is considered scummy. So while his play may seem scummy, I think it's perfectly fine for newtof.dstown!MiX. Townread.

[mail-mi]

there's a lot of wall posts. I don't like wall posts.

[mail-mi]

ari (ariship? Airship?) continually hearkens back to the fact that he's used to 10 minute mafia. Seems a little bit suspicious to me "Hey guys, I know I'm messing up, but remember, I'm not used to this!" "Remember, I'm not used to this!" "Sorry, but remember, I'm not used to this."