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[Debatepro]

@raerae - You believe this?

When did you pick up on MM breadcrumb?

Whenever the first person pointed it out today {day 3}.

Yeah, I think he was too far into his own "mail-mi is scum" narrative to see what was right in front of him.

Really? So you don't think after this post, he didn't think hmmm... I wonder why mail-mi is all the sudden getting the double circle of protection?

I'm game for DatSwan lynch.  I will not under any circumstances vote for mail-mi and will absolutely assign scumpoints to anybody who does.

Signaled it to scum but not faust?

This is what mail-mi did (but he went overboard and signaled to scum that he is a PR).

This post should handle all the details and necessary preempts.

Raerae- I went off the thought of lynching raerae yesterday, because I thought Datswan was scum. Their interactions yesterday always struck me as scum/town

What do you think about mail-mi's supposed result on raerae?

What supposed result?
Clearly I missed it, can someone post it again please?

You seriously missed it?? Did anybody answer this?  There was a lot about this; I'll link mail-mi's breadcrumbs.  AND I'll link the 3 people discussing it specifically on Day3.  I won't link all the other day3 discussion around it

He mentions 3 times that either (A) he had a scumread on raerae, but it's gone (she didn't change what she was doing) or that (B) he was looking for scumminess, but exempting raerae

Then raerae humorously called them loaves, instead of breadcrumbs:

DebatePro made a big analysis about why he missed the breadcrumbs:

plus a followup

And a discussion about whether EFHW did or did not pick up on them as well.

So, Joseph.  what are your thoughts on this?

[faust]

And actually, I wanted to ask: silver, Debate, could you summarize why you are voting for me?

Off the top of my head:
1. Non-town-aligned-dialog-preferencing
2. Reflecting responses
3. Reversal responses
4. Gödel's second incompleteness theorem
5. Information sharing and analysis
6. Your still alive

Can you put that in a way that might actually convince someone?

[raerae]

@raerae - You believe this?

When did you pick up on MM breadcrumb?

Whenever the first person pointed it out today {day 3}.

Yeah, I think he was too far into his own "mail-mi is scum" narrative to see what was right in front of him.

Really? So you don't think after this post, he didn't think hmmm... I wonder why mail-mi is all the sudden getting the double circle of protection?

I'm game for DatSwan lynch.  I will not under any circumstances vote for mail-mi and will absolutely assign scumpoints to anybody who does.

Signaled it to scum but not faust?

This is what mail-mi did (but he went overboard and signaled to scum that he is a PR).

This post should handle all the details and necessary preempts.

Raerae- I went off the thought of lynching raerae yesterday, because I thought Datswan was scum. Their interactions yesterday always struck me as scum/town

What do you think about mail-mi's supposed result on raerae?

What supposed result?
Clearly I missed it, can someone post it again please?

You seriously missed it?? Did anybody answer this?  There was a lot about this; I'll link mail-mi's breadcrumbs.  AND I'll link the 3 people discussing it specifically on Day3.  I won't link all the other day3 discussion around it

He mentions 3 times that either (A) he had a scumread on raerae, but it's gone (she didn't change what she was doing) or that (B) he was looking for scumminess, but exempting raerae

Then raerae humorously called them loaves, instead of breadcrumbs:

DebatePro made a big analysis about why he missed the breadcrumbs:

plus a followup

And a discussion about whether EFHW did or did not pick up on them as well.

So, Joseph.  what are your thoughts on this?

If you're saying faust should have caught on then EFHW should have as well.  Only she wasn't already tunneling the hell out of him.

[Joseph2302]

I'm sure I've missed questions but I'm on my phone and it's the best I can do. Frankly, EFHW's lunch probably isn't happening today which makes mean more sure I'm right. With (probably) three scum still around they can afford to spread out but NOBODY is biting on her lunch so it seems like there's town on the table and they're lining up there instead.

Yes they are. But look where your scumreads are voting. Eddie voting for Joseph. Joseph is the only one voting for Debatepro. The town scum are lining up to lynch is me, but your scumreads aren't there.

If you were right about your scumreads, it would have been super easy for them to lynch me by now.

Neither one of us exactly has an impeccable record this game. I'm not sure if be so confident that everybody voting for you is scum.

My reads have been shit so far
But I believe faust is town
And I think we should lynch Debatepro, ari or maybe ss

[Debatepro]

If you're saying faust should have caught on then EFHW should have as well.  Only she wasn't already tunneling the hell out of him.

She's in my top 3/4 list, the problem is he isn't on yours and was explicitly taken off.

[raerae]

I'm sure I've missed questions but I'm on my phone and it's the best I can do. Frankly, EFHW's lunch probably isn't happening today which makes mean more sure I'm right. With (probably) three scum still around they can afford to spread out but NOBODY is biting on her lunch so it seems like there's town on the table and they're lining up there instead.

Yes they are. But look where your scumreads are voting. Eddie voting for Joseph. Joseph is the only one voting for Debatepro. The town scum are lining up to lynch is me, but your scumreads aren't there.

If you were right about your scumreads, it would have been super easy for them to lynch me by now.

Neither one of us exactly has an impeccable record this game. I'm not sure if be so confident that everybody voting for you is scum.

My reads have been shit so far
But I believe faust is town
And I think we should lynch Debatepro, ari or maybe ss

Haven't you been claiming to be on the right side of history most of the game?  I distinctly remember you saying something along the lines of, "Nobody's convinced me MiX was scummy," after he'd flipped.  And you defended DS too, didn't you?

[raerae]

If you're saying faust should have caught on then EFHW should have as well.  Only she wasn't already tunneling the hell out of him.

She's in my top 3/4 list, the problem is he isn't on yours and was explicitly taken off.

Which I explained.  And, like I said, I firmly believe he had his blinders on re: mail-mi.  He went so far as to attack me for not voting for him, if his whole ploy was to lynch the cop he wouldn't have bothered pushing me because he would have seen that mail-mi copped me overnight.

[Joseph2302]

I'm sure I've missed questions but I'm on my phone and it's the best I can do. Frankly, EFHW's lunch probably isn't happening today which makes mean more sure I'm right. With (probably) three scum still around they can afford to spread out but NOBODY is biting on her lunch so it seems like there's town on the table and they're lining up there instead.

Yes they are. But look where your scumreads are voting. Eddie voting for Joseph. Joseph is the only one voting for Debatepro. The town scum are lining up to lynch is me, but your scumreads aren't there.

If you were right about your scumreads, it would have been super easy for them to lynch me by now.

Neither one of us exactly has an impeccable record this game. I'm not sure if be so confident that everybody voting for you is scum.

My reads have been shit so far
But I believe faust is town
And I think we should lynch Debatepro, ari or maybe ss

Haven't you been claiming to be on the right side of history most of the game?  I distinctly remember you saying something along the lines of, "Nobody's convinced me MiX was scummy," after he'd flipped.  And you defended DS too, didn't you?

I didn't defend DS, in fact I voted for him over you
Based on the fact I was sure that your interactions weren't town/town
Which was a load of crap with hindsight

[raerae]

I'm sure I've missed questions but I'm on my phone and it's the best I can do. Frankly, EFHW's lunch probably isn't happening today which makes mean more sure I'm right. With (probably) three scum still around they can afford to spread out but NOBODY is biting on her lunch so it seems like there's town on the table and they're lining up there instead.

Yes they are. But look where your scumreads are voting. Eddie voting for Joseph. Joseph is the only one voting for Debatepro. The town scum are lining up to lynch is me, but your scumreads aren't there.

If you were right about your scumreads, it would have been super easy for them to lynch me by now.

Neither one of us exactly has an impeccable record this game. I'm not sure if be so confident that everybody voting for you is scum.

My reads have been shit so far
But I believe faust is town
And I think we should lynch Debatepro, ari or maybe ss

Haven't you been claiming to be on the right side of history most of the game?  I distinctly remember you saying something along the lines of, "Nobody's convinced me MiX was scummy," after he'd flipped.  And you defended DS too, didn't you?

I didn't defend DS, in fact I voted for him over you
Based on the fact I was sure that your interactions weren't town/town
Which was a load of crap with hindsight

Ugh, you're right.  That's really unfortunate and totally doesn't align with what I wanted to believe of you.  Highly inconvenient.

[raerae]

So could it be Debate, EFHW, and Uncle?  Is that possible?  Probable?  This game is hard.

[Debatepro]

And actually, I wanted to ask: silver, Debate, could you summarize why you are voting for me?

Can you put that in a way that might actually convince someone?

I find your play in this game not helpful and how you play. This is illustrated in "non-town-aligned-dialog-preferencing" . Reflecting is a repeating technique you use to bounce what someone says back at them, reversals are taking the data and drawing the opposite conclusion, and I find it not helpful. With a little training anyone can do it and in this game it's not helping.

Make a strong case for someone else. The case is so conditional and filled with caveats against EFHW that it doesn't even make her flinch, which i find suspect.

PPE: Raerae - oh this is perfect... one second.

[Debatepro]

If you're saying faust should have caught on then EFHW should have as well.  Only she wasn't already tunneling the hell out of him.

She's in my top 3/4 list, the problem is he isn't on yours and was explicitly taken off.

Which I explained.  And, like I said, I firmly believe he had his blinders on re: mail-mi. He went so far as to attack me for not voting for him, if his whole ploy was to lynch the cop he wouldn't have bothered pushing me because he would have seen that mail-mi copped me overnight.

Why can't he do that as scum? He's smart.

@faust - see anyone can do it.

[raerae]

If you're saying faust should have caught on then EFHW should have as well.  Only she wasn't already tunneling the hell out of him.

She's in my top 3/4 list, the problem is he isn't on yours and was explicitly taken off.

Which I explained.  And, like I said, I firmly believe he had his blinders on re: mail-mi. He went so far as to attack me for not voting for him, if his whole ploy was to lynch the cop he wouldn't have bothered pushing me because he would have seen that mail-mi copped me overnight.

Why can't he do that as scum? He's smart.

@faust - see anyone can do it.

Because it draws attention to why I wouldn't vote for mail-mi which makes it more likely other town would see which makes his mislynch impossible.  I mean, I could have pushed mail-mi to claim, mail-mi could have claimed on his own, scum!faust pushing mail-mi was dangerous, town!faust pushing mail-mi was tunneling town.  faust had ZERO reason as scum to push me to vote for mail-mi if he knew mail-mi was the cop because if he knew mail-mi was cop he knew I was his target N1.  I don't know how I can make this clearer and your insistence that I'm wrong is interesting. 

[Debatepro]

Because it draws attention to why I wouldn't vote for mail-mi which makes it more likely other town would see which makes his mislynch impossible.  I mean, I could have pushed mail-mi to claim, mail-mi could have claimed on his own, scum!faust pushing mail-mi was dangerous, town!faust pushing mail-mi was tunneling town.  faust had ZERO reason as scum to push me to vote for mail-mi if he knew mail-mi was the cop because if he knew mail-mi was cop he knew I was his target N1.

I don't understand why scum.faust isn't capable of making this play, he is a wizard.

I don't know how I can make this clearer and your insistence that I'm wrong is interesting.

I'm proving a point on two levels. It's not helpful right? You don't have to feint, I am your biggest ally, which could be a double dunce hat for me if I am wrong.

[raerae]

Because it draws attention to why I wouldn't vote for mail-mi which makes it more likely other town would see which makes his mislynch impossible.  I mean, I could have pushed mail-mi to claim, mail-mi could have claimed on his own, scum!faust pushing mail-mi was dangerous, town!faust pushing mail-mi was tunneling town.  faust had ZERO reason as scum to push me to vote for mail-mi if he knew mail-mi was the cop because if he knew mail-mi was cop he knew I was his target N1.

I don't understand why scum.faust isn't capable of making this play, he is a wizard.

I don't know how I can make this clearer and your insistence that I'm wrong is interesting.

I'm proving a point on two levels. It's not helpful right? You don't have to feint, I am your biggest ally, which could be a double dunce hat for me if I am wrong.

1) But I'm showing you how little sense it makes and you just keep trying to convince me (or the rest of town?) I'm wrong.  Regardless of what he can or cannot pull off this just doesn't make sense.  It's too much of a risk.

2) Pretty sure that's shraeye (you know, the other IC) but good try.  And yes, I'm giving myself IC status if that hasn't been made clear already.

[Debatepro]

2) Pretty sure that's shraeye (you know, the other IC) but good try.  And yes, I'm giving myself IC status if that hasn't been made clear already.

Touché , you’re both on opposite sides of the Faust vote.

[silverspawn]

I'll have to be on a computer to verify the timing of Ari's claim, sorry, just not going to trust you on that one. You're my second choice and I suppose Joseph would be my third. Faust's case isn't impacting me one way or the other.

What are you talking about? You can just go back and check.

I'm also almost certain that EFHW's claim happened before ari's claim. Ari's claim was at the end of day 2. EFHW's claim was somewhere within a day, and it wasn't today.

[silverspawn]

faust had ZERO reason as scum to push me to vote for mail-mi if he knew mail-mi was the cop because if he knew mail-mi was cop he knew I was his target N1.  I don't know how I can make this clearer and your insistence that I'm wrong is interesting.

Why?

[raerae]

I'll have to be on a computer to verify the timing of Ari's claim, sorry, just not going to trust you on that one. You're my second choice and I suppose Joseph would be my third. Faust's case isn't impacting me one way or the other.

What are you talking about? You can just go back and check.

I'm also almost certain that EFHW's claim happened before ari's claim. Ari's claim was at the end of day 2. EFHW's claim was somewhere within a day, and it wasn't today.

On a computer.  Sorry, I'm not about to go try to navigate this beast of a game on my phone. 

[raerae]

faust had ZERO reason as scum to push me to vote for mail-mi if he knew mail-mi was the cop because if he knew mail-mi was cop he knew I was his target N1.  I don't know how I can make this clearer and your insistence that I'm wrong is interesting.

Why?

Why what?  mail-mi made those two facts obvious together.  What are you actually questioning here?

[silverspawn]

Oh, you have to be on a computer. I read too fast, as I often do, and read it as "I have to be a computer". That was weird.

[raerae]

Oh, you have to be on a computer. I read too fast, as I often do, and read it as "I have to be a computer". That was weird.

Hahaha, well, that might be my new response for so many things now.

[silverspawn]

faust had ZERO reason as scum to push me to vote for mail-mi if he knew mail-mi was the cop because if he knew mail-mi was cop he knew I was his target N1.  I don't know how I can make this clearer and your insistence that I'm wrong is interesting.

Why?

Why what?  mail-mi made those two facts obvious together.

Okay, fine. (I don't ever notice breadcrumbs but he seemed to have been obvious enough for scum to pick up on it, so I can believe that his target was also obvious.) And I guess if we're treating you as an IC now because of it, then it was just as obvious back then.

[silverspawn]

And actually, I wanted to ask: silver, Debate, could you summarize why you are voting for me?

I dislike you agreeing on ari initially but then switching to datswan. I'm not sure I believe that town!you would scumread him.

It's day 3 and you're still alive and two towns are dead. Say what you will but this is bayesian evidence for you being scum. I also want to point out that you're not above using this argument for why people shouldn't lynch you on day 1 and such, so you should have to bear both sides.

I'm quite irritated that you don't see the argument from beauty for EFHW being town. This feels like exactly the kind of thing that is convenient to ignore because it won't mean much to most people so no-one will call you out on it. But you design setups, and I would expect you to see this as substantial evidence. This was a case where UoS had total freedom to do whatever he wanted, and you think he put a neapolitan in the setup who would only get non-VT results on masons? That's so ugly and consequently unlikely. The balance stuff on the other hand, eh, there's much less of a universally agreed upon baseline for balance than we like to pretend. Especially in closed games. Your suspicion of EFHW seems ooc.

I guess this is somewhat less true if you genuinely believe ariship.

And of course PoE, more than everything. There's only a bunch of alternatives, and they're all pretty bad. There's two ICs and no way I'm voting debatepro. Also not very interested in Eddie.

[silverspawn]

Coming to think of it, it is very convenient for you to claim that EFHW is scum, because it also allows you to disregard her results on eddie and me. That's three people you can scumread who I suspect are all town.