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Author Topic: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Game over)  (Read 274583 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1400 on: February 07, 2019, 07:38:06 am »

I think I side with Glooble on the fact that joth is maybe tunneling UoS in an unjustified way because the "scumslip" case is not at all strong. I don't really blame UoS for an omgus vote there, and I'd consider a vote on joth at least as readily as one on UoS.

I do think that we're too far into the game to vote based on lurker lynches. We know that people posting a lot say more things that can be construed as scummy, so a lack of content isn't a lack of scumminess, but I don't think we want to foster a meta that a lack of content is evidence in itself of scumminess. (My personal feeling is that lack of engagement in a game should get a player subbed out much more quickly, but I'm not sure this forum has the luxury of having enough subs for that to be practical, so I trust that the mod did exactly what was appropriate in the circumstances).

Possibly-relevant info for WCD and any other newer players: subbing into a game is outright harder than being with it from the beginning. Also, most of the damage in terms of lack of wagon interaction was already done by Robz before UoS took over; from my point of view, the early-day wagons, where we have many more coloured-in names to look at, are the more informative ones, and it's not actually UoS's fault he wasn't voting there. Though the point about him not having voted on D3 is fair, and I recognise that.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1401 on: February 07, 2019, 09:13:37 am »

Nah, I know you have better options. Totally different.

That's not very convincing.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1402 on: February 07, 2019, 09:43:29 am »

I do generally support replacing out players who are not active enough, but the definition of active enough changes from mod to mod.  When I modded, I always threatened the inactivity modkill much more than it ever actually happened, because in general players played enough.  I would say UoS has played "enough" to not be modkilled, and therefore not be subject to a policy lynch, which is worse for town than the modkill, regardless of UoS's alignment.

I tend to like scumslip arguments more than the average players, partly because they do exist (we've seen them) and partly because it pushes players to defend themselves in such a way that other things can be noticed.  I would say that the number of scum scumslip is both unlikely and easy to make, which is of course contradictory, but true nonetheless.  What I don't think is likely is a cerebral player like UoS making that mistake.

That said, the inactivity has allowed UoS to mostly skate by, which is what scum likes.  If we were to lynch UoS, I'd feel okay with it.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1403 on: February 07, 2019, 09:51:44 am »

The fact that UoS subbed in is part of what makes me read that post as a scumslip. It's one of his first posts of the day.

Look, let's consider the possibility that Robz888 rolled scum. We know that Robz's lurkiness was a product of IRL factors. We know from the V/LA thread and some of us know from the fact that Robz is IRL a public figure. So that's for sure a null tell.

We don't have the luxury of that kind of definitive knowledge about UoS's lurking, but I'm happy to take him at his word. We know that he has been modding Philosophy mafia, after all, and as Space said, catching up is hard.

So no one is making a lurker=scum argument on UoS or even a "policy lynch the lurker" argument.

But back to my original point. Let's imagine that UmbrageOfSnow kindly subs in to this crazy game and gets a PM. Oh, I'm scum! Now it's not so important to re-read this day 1 right away. My partners can catch me up on the important stuff and I can jump in and start posting.

That's a situation where scum would fall into the trap of assuming that the size of the scum team was known information when it wasn't.

Now maybe you don't buy that it's a slip. Fine. Forget the slip. It's nothing. But what had UoS done since subbing into this game? What votes has he made? What cases has he built or contributed to? Heck, what has he done today other than defend himself against my case? And what happens if we let him limp into LyLo without creating any information about himself at all?
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1404 on: February 07, 2019, 09:56:48 am »

On the other hand.

This is a weird town. We have e and ashersky, who are sort of tied together and who have been getting town passes for a single investigative result which could have been a scum gambit, either on a partner or a townie. We have Space and WCD, whose towniness is somewhat linked to each other because of their QT the other day. We have Glooble and I, who have a twin claim, think alike on a lot of things, and both seem to get alternately read as superobvtown and superscummy, often by the same people. We have Awaclus, who is an enigma.

So the temptation to gravitate toward UoS as the least complicated lynch is strong. UoS is outside of the web of RM weirdness that encompasses most of us. It makes his lynch less informational, and I think it makes it more likely that it will turn out to be a mislynch.

So I do actually have some misgivings.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1405 on: February 07, 2019, 10:02:02 am »

How do you search a specific thread for some text? I figured out how to search a whole board, but not just the thread.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1406 on: February 07, 2019, 10:05:24 am »

How do you search a specific thread for some text? I figured out how to search a whole board, but not just the thread.

I use Ctrl+f
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1407 on: February 07, 2019, 10:07:33 am »

I think I would like UoS to claim. And then go from there
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1408 on: February 07, 2019, 10:13:00 am »

The fact that UoS subbed in is part of what makes me read that post as a scumslip. It's one of his first posts of the day.

Look, let's consider the possibility that Robz888 rolled scum. We know that Robz's lurkiness was a product of IRL factors. We know from the V/LA thread and some of us know from the fact that Robz is IRL a public figure. So that's for sure a null tell.

We don't have the luxury of that kind of definitive knowledge about UoS's lurking, but I'm happy to take him at his word. We know that he has been modding Philosophy mafia, after all, and as Space said, catching up is hard.

So no one is making a lurker=scum argument on UoS or even a "policy lynch the lurker" argument.

But back to my original point. Let's imagine that UmbrageOfSnow kindly subs in to this crazy game and gets a PM. Oh, I'm scum! Now it's not so important to re-read this day 1 right away. My partners can catch me up on the important stuff and I can jump in and start posting.

That's a situation where scum would fall into the trap of assuming that the size of the scum team was known information when it wasn't.

Now maybe you don't buy that it's a slip. Fine. Forget the slip. It's nothing. But what had UoS done since subbing into this game? What votes has he made? What cases has he built or contributed to? Heck, what has he done today other than defend himself against my case? And what happens if we let him limp into LyLo without creating any information about himself at all?

I don't know if this was supposed to be the more convincing argument in response to me, but it would help if the argument wasn't centered around "UoS is more scummy than me" when I already tried putting more pressure on him and all it achieved was that he kept making sense and you kept looking suspicious.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1409 on: February 07, 2019, 10:21:15 am »

How do you search a specific thread for some text? I figured out how to search a whole board, but not just the thread.

I use Ctrl+f

Specifically, after clicking "All" by the page numbers.

I don't know if this was supposed to be the more convincing argument in response to me, but it would help if the argument wasn't centered around "UoS is more scummy than me" when I already tried putting more pressure on him and all it achieved was that he kept making sense and you kept looking suspicious.

It wasn't. I will get interested in convincing you of things and explaining my thought processes to you when you get interested in returning the favor.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1410 on: February 07, 2019, 10:21:57 am »

I'm rereading Robz right now, and a lot of the discussion that isn't related to lurking is related to Robz's defense of mail-mi's suggestion of a mass-claim which, it turns out, was probably not motivated by pro-town sentiment (a mass claim would have been a great way for mail-mi to find the other Anander Mianaii.) That's not suspicious in and of itself, but it is kind of interesting.

I think continuing to focus on mail-mi so much--something Joth is doing--is somewhat scummy. I've often seen mail-mi make himself into an easy target in games past, perhaps especially when town.

Trying to do a reread during my lunchbreak and this post stuck out at me. At the time Robz posts this, Awaclus is the one who is pushing mail-mi's wagon a lot harder than joth. In fact, joth has already started to back off mail-mi. Seems a little odd that Robz doesn't attack her.


This is still odd to me. No one commented on it at the time, but since we have so little Robz behavior to scrutinize I think its worth another look.

Joth also makes a case against Robz at post 505 which might be worth revisiting.

Sorry to drum up all this ancient history but as has been pointed out, we don't have much else to go on.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1411 on: February 07, 2019, 10:22:43 am »

It wasn't. I will get interested in convincing you of things and explaining my thought processes to you when you get interested in returning the favor.

I'm very interested in returning the favor by voting elsewhere if you're town and you can convince me of it.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1412 on: February 07, 2019, 10:28:08 am »

We have e and ashersky, who are sort of tied together and who have been getting town passes for a single investigative result which could have been a scum gambit, either on a partner or a townie.

If we flip e, it actually tells us virtually nothing about Ash.. so I know you said "sort of tied together", but I find that thinking that way is unhelpful. Better to analyse each player based on their own play.

We have Space and WCD, whose towniness is somewhat linked to each other because of their QT the other day.

This I agree with!

We have Glooble and I, who have a twin claim, think alike on a lot of things, and both seem to get alternately read as superobvtown and superscummy, often by the same people.

I did specifically make a post about how I found it remarkable that Ash was insisting that Glooble was scummy and you were townie.

On the other hand, my wagon analysis says it's also quite unlikely that neither of you is scum, though I only have an argument that works from my own point of view, not a useful case: there was a five-person mcmc wagon on D1, and either one of you two (or WCD at the very outside) is scum, or it's a five-town-on-town wagon, which is super-rare.

We have Awaclus, who is an enigma.

Yes, total agreement here too. Doesn't mean he's not scum, though.

So the temptation to gravitate toward UoS as the least complicated lynch is strong. UoS is outside of the web of RM weirdness that encompasses most of us. It makes his lynch less informational, and I think it makes it more likely that it will turn out to be a mislynch.

I don't quite see how "likely mislynch" follows from "simple odd one out", but I like the sentiment of not falling for the easy solution.

I've got some time later in which I can look some more at the wagons and see what I think we could get from various flips.

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1413 on: February 07, 2019, 10:29:04 am »

It wasn't. I will get interested in convincing you of things and explaining my thought processes to you when you get interested in returning the favor.

I'm very interested in returning the favor by voting elsewhere if you're town and you can convince me of it.

Stop being lazy. It's not my job to convince you I'm town. Why did you hammer mail-mi?
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Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1414 on: February 07, 2019, 10:29:45 am »

On the other hand, at post 699, LaLight, who we now know was scum, starts pushing a wagon on Robz. This doesn't exonerate UoS of course, but it's another data point.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1415 on: February 07, 2019, 10:41:35 am »

We have e and ashersky, who are sort of tied together and who have been getting town passes for a single investigative result which could have been a scum gambit, either on a partner or a townie.

If we flip e, it actually tells us virtually nothing about Ash.. so I know you said "sort of tied together", but I find that thinking that way is unhelpful. Better to analyse each player based on their own play.



That's... not true. If e is were to die and flip town, I would trust ash a lot more - especially if e's role supported her claim of "investigative rules can be faked, but not mine." If e were to flip scum, everyone would get a lot more suspicious of ash. It certainly wouldn't confirm anything, but I think its just flat out wrong to say it tells us virtually nothing.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1416 on: February 07, 2019, 10:41:50 am »

It's not my job to convince you I'm town.

Yes it is.

Stop being lazy. It's not my job to convince you I'm town. Why did you hammer mail-mi?

He was claimed not-town and it was clear that he was already lying about stuff to town to his faction's benefit at our expense.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1417 on: February 07, 2019, 10:44:17 am »

It's not my job to convince you I'm town.

Yes it is.
Agree to disagree.

Quote
Stop being lazy. It's not my job to convince you I'm town. Why did you hammer mail-mi?

He was claimed not-town and it was clear that he was already lying about stuff to town to his faction's benefit at our expense.

And you didn't think it was prudent to allow more people to see and respond to his new claim before deciding how to proceed?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1418 on: February 07, 2019, 10:49:49 am »

On the other hand, at post 699, LaLight, who we now know was scum, starts pushing a wagon on Robz. This doesn't exonerate UoS of course, but it's another data point.


Sorry, actually that was 640. Don't know how I got that wrong.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1419 on: February 07, 2019, 10:53:18 am »

the idea behind wagoning Robz was that if he comes after vla and sees a wagon on him, if he is scum, he might've slipped, but whatever. I thought it was a good idea and try to contribute. Let's go back to vote: 2.71828.....


anyway, she doesn't stay on Robz for long before ashersky scolds her and she walks it back, saying she doesn't think Robz is scum and just wanted to put pressure on her. Could be a scum tactic to make it look like she and Robz aren't connected without any actual risk of a lynch. Something for Robz or LaLight to point back to after one of them has flipped.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1420 on: February 07, 2019, 10:55:23 am »


Thursdays are my busy, busy teaching days so I won't be around again until the evening.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1421 on: February 07, 2019, 10:56:39 am »

It's not my job to convince you I'm town.

Yes it is.
Agree to disagree.

Fine, but then I'm not moving my vote.
Quote
Stop being lazy. It's not my job to convince you I'm town. Why did you hammer mail-mi?

He was claimed not-town and it was clear that he was already lying about stuff to town to his faction's benefit at our expense.

And you didn't think it was prudent to allow more people to see and respond to his new claim before deciding how to proceed?

It was better for one townie to make that decision than a bunch of people from different alignments.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1422 on: February 07, 2019, 11:00:47 am »

It was better for one townie to make that decision than a bunch of people from different alignments.

Or maybe mail-mi dying was part of your win-con.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1423 on: February 07, 2019, 11:06:31 am »

It was better for one townie to make that decision than a bunch of people from different alignments.

Or maybe mail-mi dying was part of your win-con.

I don't think it was? It says "threats" to the Radch, which I don't think mail-mi counted as.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1424 on: February 07, 2019, 11:07:54 am »

It was better for one townie to make that decision than a bunch of people from different alignments.

Or maybe mail-mi dying was part of your win-con.

I don't think it was? It says "threats" to the Radch, which I don't think mail-mi counted as.

Oh ok. So you're saying you hammered someone you knew wasn't scum? Bold move.
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