We have e and ashersky, who are sort of tied together and who have been getting town passes for a single investigative result which could have been a scum gambit, either on a partner or a townie.
If we flip e, it actually tells us virtually nothing about Ash.. so I know you said "
sort of tied together", but I find that thinking that way is unhelpful. Better to analyse each player based on their own play.
We have Space and WCD, whose towniness is somewhat linked to each other because of their QT the other day.
This I agree with!
We have Glooble and I, who have a twin claim, think alike on a lot of things, and both seem to get alternately read as superobvtown and superscummy, often by the same people.
I did specifically make a post about how I found it remarkable that Ash was insisting that Glooble was scummy and you were townie.
On the other hand, my wagon analysis says it's also quite unlikely that neither of you is scum, though I only have an argument that works from my own point of view, not a useful case: there was a five-person mcmc wagon on D1, and either one of you two (or WCD at the
very outside) is scum, or it's a five-town-on-town wagon, which is super-rare.
We have Awaclus, who is an enigma.
Yes, total agreement here too. Doesn't mean he's not scum, though.
So the temptation to gravitate toward UoS as the least complicated lynch is strong. UoS is outside of the web of RM weirdness that encompasses most of us. It makes his lynch less informational, and I think it makes it more likely that it will turn out to be a mislynch.
I don't quite see how "likely mislynch" follows from "simple odd one out", but I like the sentiment of not falling for the easy solution.
I've got some time later in which I can look some more at the wagons and see what I think we could get from various flips.
PPE 4