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[jotheonah]

Ok, this is a weird post. This was after the LaLight flip. Why is UoS treating it like a given that there are 3 scum? I don't believe it was ever stated. I know we throw the word around waaaaay too much, but ... scumslip?

Because 13 players is going to be 3v10 the vast majority of the time. When I saw the game had 14 players in signups, I immediately assumed either
a) SK + 3 scum + 10 town
b) 3 scum + 11 town with a vig shot and a lot of scum power
c) 2 scum + 2 scum, + 10 town
Especially with RMM you can balance around other things, but those ratios are really hard to make a good game around and RMM is complicated. 4 team scum and 10 town is TERRIBLE for town, 2 team scum is TERRIBLE for scum.

3 scum is basically a given once it's clear we don't have 2 NKs every night, and the mostly-town cult wasn't going to change that.

It's not the assumption itself but the treatment of it as fact, rather than assumption.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'm quite confident about 3 scum being the only reasonable number, if we lost due to early LYLO from there being 4 scum on a team I'd be happy to yell at faust about the game being horribly unbalanced.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

What I really don't like, other than you being right that people throw around scumslip arguments all the time and they are almost never actually good arguments is how many people are nodding along and saying "You know, I was assuming there were 3 scum too but that is fishy."

[Glooble]

2 cum would make sense if one of them was exceptionally powerful. Like, idk, a lynchproof dayvig godfather.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

My guess about semi-loyal vig is that she could vig 2/3 factions, her own and one of the other two. I don't think we can assume whether the other was town or scum based on the wording, either way faust wouldn't say semi-disloyal I think, because the literal loyal faction is your own, so it's that and something else.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

@WCD: So who do you think definitely couldn't be partners with LaLight? Do you think anyone looks like likely partners?

[jotheonah]

Ok, this is a weird post. This was after the LaLight flip. Why is UoS treating it like a given that there are 3 scum? I don't believe it was ever stated. I know we throw the word around waaaaay too much, but ... scumslip?

Because 13 players is going to be 3v10 the vast majority of the time. When I saw the game had 14 players in signups, I immediately assumed either
a) SK + 3 scum + 10 town
b) 3 scum + 11 town with a vig shot and a lot of scum power
c) 2 scum + 2 scum, + 10 town
Especially with RMM you can balance around other things, but those ratios are really hard to make a good game around and RMM is complicated. 4 team scum and 10 town is TERRIBLE for town, 2 team scum is TERRIBLE for scum.

3 scum is basically a given once it's clear we don't have 2 NKs every night, and the mostly-town cult wasn't going to change that.

This feels much more like a justification after the fact than a super-fast thought process that you went through before you read that post but didn't bother to mention because you thought it was so obvious.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

In that I typed up the numbers just now, sure. I'm saying I thought there were 3 team scum in this game WHEN IT WAS IN SIGNUPS.

It's not some super-fast thought process either, and it's weird that you're trying to paint it that way.

[Awaclus]

2 cum would make sense if one of them was exceptionally powerful. Like, idk, a lynchproof dayvig godfather.

Great, then let's lynch ashersky when there are 3 people alive and everyone else flipped town.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Vote: Joth

[WestCoastDidds]

@WCD: So who do you think definitely couldn't be partners with LaLight? Do you think anyone looks like likely partners?

Good question. I didn’t get any real sense of someone who she couldn’t be partnered with.  There wasn’t anyone she avoided talking to or who she helped clear definitively.

I think that if she was trying to vote for her partner a little but not ever put them in danger, e is a likely partner. Couple of votes, but never a real wagon.

All in all, I don’t know how much we get from LaLyncing LaLight because it happened so early. I’m guessing that once the claim went sideways, her partners felt free to cut ties. Perhaps we need to go back and look who was on her wagon after the claim.

[jotheonah]

You just contradicted yourself.

Because 13 players is going to be 3v10 the vast majority of the time. When I saw the game had 14 players in signups, I immediately assumed either
a) SK + 3 scum + 10 town
b) 3 scum + 11 town with a vig shot and a lot of scum power
c) 2 scum + 2 scum, + 10 town
Especially with RMM you can balance around other things, but those ratios are really hard to make a good game around and RMM is complicated. 4 team scum and 10 town is TERRIBLE for town, 2 team scum is TERRIBLE for scum.

3 scum is basically a given once it's clear we don't have 2 NKs every night, and the mostly-town cult wasn't going to change that.

In that I typed up the numbers just now, sure. I'm saying I thought there were 3 team scum in this game WHEN IT WAS IN SIGNUPS.

It's not some super-fast thought process either, and it's weird that you're trying to paint it that way.

So in the first quote, you said you were sure there were 3 scum only after we didn't have two nightkills, and that during signups you were considering the possibility of four. In the second post, you say you were already certain it was 3 during signups. So which is it? Why can't you even keep your cover story consistent across two posts?

[jotheonah]

Messed up the quoting, so reposting for visibility:

So in the first quote, you said you were sure there were 3 scum only after we didn't have two nightkills, and that during signups you were considering the possibility of four. In the second post, you say you were already certain it was 3 during signups. So which is it? Why can't you even keep your cover story consistent across two posts?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

WCD: weren't you in LYLO with scum LL in Adventure Time? Do you remember if she avoided voting for her partners in that game?

[Awaclus]

Vote: UoS

[SpaceAnemone]

What I really don't like, other than you being right that people throw around scumslip arguments all the time and they are almost never actually good arguments is how many people are nodding along and saying "You know, I was assuming there were 3 scum too but that is fishy."

This wasn't directed at me, was it? Just in case it was, can I clarify that I said that I liked the "scumslip" argument better than the "lynch people who don't contribute anything" argument. Neither point makes a decent case at all, but at least with the scumslip idea, it was worth pointing out for others to consider with whatever other info they have from their own pov. I don't really think the same should be true of lurker lynches, though I'm also relieved you're able to contribute more now, because lack of participation by any one player does make scum-catching harder for everyone.

I do think scumslips are a valuable thing.. after all, LL was lynched over a scumslip not very long ago. I think she'd actually made two slips in quick succession: the "bugged" thing and the "involuntary alignment change" u-turn.

PPE several

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Seriously, Joth?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I did assume there would be 3 scum when it was in signups. I also thought it could be multiball, but I didn't really think that much about it. 3 scum is the default assumption and then 3 scum + SK is next most likely.

I was then sure when there weren't a mess of NKs.

Sure, you can read the words I wrote as a contradiction and then shout "A ha! Only scum would contradict herself!" But look at the thought process behind what I'm saying.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Space: It was directed at you, e, and WCD I think. It struck me as weird that 3 separate people jumped in with that same sentiment. That non-comital but don't want to derail this if it takes off stance.

Obviously not all such people are scum, but I'd basically prefer to lynch in you 3 + Joth at this point.

[jotheonah]

Interesting. I'm not actually sure how many scum there are even now.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also I would argue that botching a fake claim is a whole different thing than the type of scumslips people mean when they make scumslip arguments.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Interesting. I'm not actually sure how many scum there are even now.

Really?

[jotheonah]

Interesting. I'm not actually sure how many scum there are even now.

Really?

Really. It wasn't in my PM or anything.

[WestCoastDidds]

WCD: weren't you in LYLO with scum LL in Adventure Time? Do you remember if she avoided voting for her partners in that game?

I don’t remember, but I’ll go look

[WestCoastDidds]

Space: It was directed at you, e, and WCD I think. It struck me as weird that 3 separate people jumped in with that same sentiment. That non-comital but don't want to derail this if it takes off stance.

Wait, what did we do? I’m not following