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[ashersky]

Also, I feel strongly that joth townslipped, so he’s no longer a lynch option in this game.

[ashersky]

So, to recap, from anti-town to town:

Glooble
SA/MM/WCD
UOS
Awaclus/Haddock
2.7/joth

[Awaclus]

Also, I feel strongly that joth townslipped, so he’s no longer a lynch option in this game.

Huh? Where?

[ashersky]

Also, I feel strongly that joth townslipped, so he’s no longer a lynch option in this game.

Huh? Where?

His IRL meeting heads up. I think scum!joth, and scum in general just don’t say anything at all.

You know, like Glooble.

[SpaceAnemone]

well, I know Ashersky is town, I don't know that you are.  I think you are though, so thats nice.

You claimed that you targeted him N1 and he was town.

He may be a godfather.
He may have been town and then converted to the cult, or possibly even to scum, making him not town any more.
You may have been redirected.
There may be other roles out there messing with our information gathering, especially since town have a number of investigative roles in play already.

Your continued insistence that he's absolutely town sounds so confident that it seems like you must be writing off some of these sources of doubt. Are you confident that you really have good reason to do so?

[Glooble]

Investigative roles can be fooled. Or e and ash could be a team. Both of these have always been on the table. Alternatiely. Ash could be the cult leader, and e her starting cult member. That would make perfect sense with her powers- lynchproof is great for a character whose death would result in the death of a whole faction. 1-shot vig is great for the leader of a faction who needs one specific town player to die in order to fulfill their win-con.

So stop pretending you know ash is town based on the damn cop claim because you don’t.

I, on the other hand, started and pushed the wagon on the only scum we’ve actually caught this game. So I think my town cred is stronger than ashersky’s. You can all choose who you want to trust. Personally I would trust “caught scum” over “claim that could easily be faked.”

Yes I am worried about ash’s shot because I think ash is either scum or cullt with incentive to shoot a town player. You should all be worried about that.

Ash’s “hammer time” comment was just the straw that broke the camel’s back for me. I don’t think she’s town.

[Awaclus]

His IRL meeting heads up. I think scum!joth, and scum in general just don’t say anything at all.

Oh. So no townslip then.

[ashersky]

I’ll make you a deal. Let’s lynch me now with me on the wagon. After I flip town your only post tomorrow is a self-vote and nothing else.

Being right is much more important to me than being alive. And I trust the others will ensure the deal goes through, because even your scum partners will need to vote you to maintain any semblance of credibility.

I will do enjoy the I told you so post-game.

[ashersky]

The deal is for Glooble, of course.

If you break your word and post more than a self-vote you just confirm yourself even further as scum. Seems like a win-win to me. Hi

[SpaceAnemone]

Scum points for not targeting 2.7, the claimed cop. You want to see a player targeted by scum with that role, so why not target the most likely player to be blocked or killed?  Yes, he claimed 1-shot, but literally all cops should do that if they have to claim on D2.   So scum points there.

I didn't want to target a player who could have high known utility for town, because that's exactly who other townies with more informative abilities will want to investigate, and my side-effects could mess with that. My decision was to target someone who I though wasn't scum, but who might get targeted for other stuff. I did explicitly explain that at #1177, because I assumed I might get quizzed over my changing read on Glooble: I'd had that argument with Haddock over what I thought was sloppy presentation of a breakdown of possibilities that Glooble had posted, and for a while I'd been scumreading him (Glooble) there. WCD and I had even considered waggoning Glooble before we settled on Mail-mi, but I'd backed out of that because my scumread was diminishing.

[ashersky]

Scum points for not targeting 2.7, the claimed cop. You want to see a player targeted by scum with that role, so why not target the most likely player to be blocked or killed?  Yes, he claimed 1-shot, but literally all cops should do that if they have to claim on D2.   So scum points there.

I didn't want to target a player who could have high known utility for town, because that's exactly who other townies with more informative abilities will want to investigate, and my side-effects could mess with that. My decision was to target someone who I though wasn't scum, but who might get targeted for other stuff. I did explicitly explain that at #1177, because I assumed I might get quizzed over my changing read on Glooble: I'd had that argument with Haddock over what I thought was sloppy presentation of a breakdown of possibilities that Glooble had posted, and for a while I'd been scumreading him (Glooble) there. WCD and I had even considered waggoning Glooble before we settled on Mail-mi, but I'd backed out of that because my scumread was diminishing.

Fair enough as far as reasoning goes. I don’t necessarily agree but the thinking is sensibly SA.

[ashersky]

One other point regarding Glooble. Only scum can be so utterly “convinced” as she seems to be. Scum often forget to add the fake self-doubt to their fake reads.

[2.71828.....]

Investigative roles can be fooled, but not mine. Except maybe godfather. I am double checking that one.

[2.71828.....]

And yeah, Ash could have been recruited, but hypercube proved to us that it is a survivor cult that wins only with town, not scum. So I really don't care if Ash is now with that cult

[SpaceAnemone]

The interesting thing about Ash's theory that Joth has townslipped and Glooble is scum is that in terms of voting actions, the two are nigh-on indistinguishable, and it's not just that one is sheeping the other.

In the very early game, they do their own thing, with Glooble voting Galz and eventually Joth voting Awaclus. Joth moves to Mail-mi at #107, and Glooble joins at #143. By #178, Joth is on Robz and Glooble has unvoted completely. By the mid #200s, Glooble is on the growing Hyper wagon and Joth has unvoted completely. So far, that's reasonably independent.

When the big mcmc wagon comes along, Joth is the first non-green name (for me) onto the wagon at #327, with Glooble following immediately behind at #328. They end D1 both voting for Ash, with LL in between them (and WCD&Hyper also on the wagon).

Over D2, they spend over 140 posts sitting with both of them voting LL. Glooble was the first one on that wagon, but Joth sticks even after it first dies down. Joth eventually joins the Awaclus wagon, followed only 27 posts later by Glooble... but then less than 20 posts later, they're both back on LL, this time with Joth joining the wagon before Glooble.

Early D3, Joth briefly voted Mail-mi, then they were both on Awaclus, then both on me. They did both unvote from that, thankfully! Now Glooble is unsurprisingly on Ash, and Joth is still not voting.

I'm not too surprised that they're somewhat more correlated that your average pair of players, given the twinclaim, but I do think it probably also points to a shared alignment motivating their underlying behaviour too. Certainly I'd find it hard to hold entirely opposite reads on the two of them, given that their voting behaviours match so very closely.

PPE 3

[SpaceAnemone]

You have to imagine that in my view I have a green colour on me, WCD and Hyper. I wanted to get a lot of green players onto one as-yet-unknown name, and then see who else joined.

Important part bolded. According to WCD's own description of her power thus far, Space has no idea whether WCD is town or not. She may believe that WCD is town, but she doesn't know for certain. Scumslip? Again, maybe. I'm not sure though.

At that point I didn't know for sure that Hyper was town either, but it sounded highly likely, so I was working with what was available. What I was giving there was an explanation with an example, for Haddock, of what exactly I hoped to get out of the wagon analysis.

If you're seriously proposing that WCD and I are the remainder of the scumteam, why on earth do you think we wagoned you, instead of any of the people who had votes on them already, who presumably can't all also have been on the scumteam you hypothesize?

[SpaceAnemone]

Ash’s “hammer time” comment was just the straw that broke the camel’s back for me. I don’t think she’s town.

Ash likes hammering people. It's just kind of a thing, so I didn't actually read anything more than typically hostile Ash-ness from it.

[jotheonah]

I'd like to vote for mail-mi. What L are they at?

[mail-mi]

You have to imagine that in my view I have a green colour on me, WCD and Hyper. I wanted to get a lot of green players onto one as-yet-unknown name, and then see who else joined.

Important part bolded. According to WCD's own description of her power thus far, Space has no idea whether WCD is town or not. She may believe that WCD is town, but she doesn't know for certain. Scumslip? Again, maybe. I'm not sure though.

At that point I didn't know for sure that Hyper was town either, but it sounded highly likely, so I was working with what was available. What I was giving there was an explanation with an example, for Haddock, of what exactly I hoped to get out of the wagon analysis.

If you're seriously proposing that WCD and I are the remainder of the scumteam, why on earth do you think we wagoned you, instead of any of the people who had votes on them already, who presumably can't all also have been on the scumteam you hypothesize?

Yeah but hyper was either conf!town or conf!scum at that point. If she didn't die at the end of the day, then she was lying and basically confirmed scum at that point. However, WCD was not and is not conf!town.

Again. That was a theory that I suggested. Am I considering it? Only slightly. For now I think it's much more likely that you're scum with someone else, maybe joth, maybe glooble, maybe e.

[Glooble]

I’ll make you a deal. Let’s lynch me now with me on the wagon. After I flip town your only post tomorrow is a self-vote and nothing else.

Being right is much more important to me than being alive. And I trust the others will ensure the deal goes through, because even your scum partners will need to vote you to maintain any semblance of credibility.

I will do enjoy the I told you so post-game.

This is an astonishingly bad plan. Because if we are both town it basically loses us the game. So no.

If we did do this plan, the other way around would be better. Your role is much more valuable to town than mine. Makes way more sense to lynch me first.

Although if you really are convinced I’m scum, why are we having this conversation? Why haven’t you shot me already?

[SpaceAnemone]

I have to get to bed now.. my ridiculous late night was rather foolish!

@Joth, on the Canada comment, I'd say it can definitely be worth keeping track of what timezones various players are in, because it can make a difference to reading people if they're always slow responding to comments etc.. At one point gkrieg and I (who used to scumread each other a lot) realised we were pretty much never online at the same time as each other, because his active time was after I'd gone to bed, and mine was when he was often busy with work, since we were like 7 or 8 timezones apart. Also, my sympathies on not getting Disco via Netflix :-P

[jotheonah]

Ok I wanted to see Glooble's reaction to ash's plan before I weighed in, but I also think it's a terrible plan, since I think they are both town.

[SpaceAnemone]

I'd like to vote for mail-mi. What L are they at?

Space count as of #1198:

jotheonah (1): Awaclus
mail-mi (3): Haddock, SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds
SpaceAnemone (1): mail-mi
Glooble (1): ashersky
ashersky (1): Glooble
WestCoastDidds (1): 2.71828.....
Not Voting (2): UmbrageOfSnow, jotheonah

(Really going to bed this time)

[Glooble]

One other point regarding Glooble. Only scum can be so utterly “convinced” as she seems to be. Scum often forget to add the fake self-doubt to their fake reads.

Wow, well you seem awfully convinced that I’m scum. If we apply your own logic to you you don’t come out looking so good.

[jotheonah]

I'd like to vote for mail-mi. What L are they at?

Space count as of #1198:

jotheonah (1): Awaclus
mail-mi (3): Haddock, SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds
SpaceAnemone (1): mail-mi
Glooble (1): ashersky
ashersky (1): Glooble
WestCoastDidds (1): 2.71828.....
Not Voting (2): UmbrageOfSnow, jotheonah

(Really going to bed this time)

Thanks Space.

vote: mail-mi