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[Joseph2302]

Oh wow, we get to see Robz's alignment?
That's useful and unexpected.
As Robz is town, that wagon on him must have a scum on it.

[Joseph2302]

So that means at least one scum in {e, PPS, Joseph, WCD, Space, ingathief}

Although I'm town and was the second most popular lynch target. Which means it wasn't scum at the end trying to force a mislynch and avoid a scum lynch

[Joseph2302]

I did think of the three wagons (me, EFHW, Robz)  that Robz was the scummiest at the time

Maybe the Space suggestions for a wagon would have been a better option

[WestCoastDidds]

So that means at least one scum in {e, PPS, Joseph, WCD, Space, ingathief}

Not necessarily, right? Since it was a plurality instead of a majority, there were 6 other people with different votes in addition to Robz and faust. Once Robz lynch was assured, both EFHW and hyper jumped off and onto a wagon they knew wouldn’t make. The same with mcmc, Dylan, Awaclus, and DatSwan (not the jumping just the being on wagons going nowhere). I don’t know why scum would leave themselves on a town lynch wagon when it was going to make regardless. The VCA works much better when a majority is required to lynch.

[SpaceAnemone]

Also, no one except Robz knew he was redeemed, so his being ic now is not relevant to the badness of the wagon.

This is relevant, and Robz hadn't given us any reason to think he was that townie. I assume he thought that the combination of being VLA and having a meta of being extremely absent in general would get him through D1. Personally, I'd missed that he had a several-day-long VLA posted after his slow start to the game.

I still think the lack of interaction between Robz and mcmc is a little odd, as is the fact that mcmc hid his defense of Robz in the same post as a vote for me. Those two usually know what's going on with one another, and mcmc made no mention of Robz's VLA, only that he was very busy. (Note for newbies who may not have come across this before: Robz and mcmc are real-life brothers).

[SpaceAnemone]

So that means at least one scum in {e, PPS, Joseph, WCD, Space, ingathief}

Not necessarily, right? Since it was a plurality instead of a majority, there were 6 other people with different votes in addition to Robz and faust. Once Robz lynch was assured, both EFHW and hyper jumped off and onto a wagon they knew wouldn’t make. The same with mcmc, Dylan, Awaclus, and DatSwan (not the jumping just the being on wagons going nowhere). I don’t know why scum would leave themselves on a town lynch wagon when it was going to make regardless. The VCA works much better when a majority is required to lynch.

While you're technically right, it would certainly be a surprise if there were no scum at all in that set. In the run-up to deadline, we usually end up voting to try to get a lynch through, and the idea of getting someone to claim before lynch had been discussed earlier, so I think that was on most people's minds. So scum probably didn't want to risk being off-wagon entirely in case random panicked townie votes settled somewhere they liked less.

For me, e is quite a strong townread, and given that Robz is IC, then PPS and Joseph are the two most likely scums. Probably not both together, though, because they joined the wagon in very quick succession (posts 404 and 405 respectively, which EFW joining at 415 as the very next vote cast) and that's an unusual voting pattern for two scum-buddies.

The other evidence from my PoV against Joseph is that he's sat with two known towns on his wagon for a while (me and faust, from #124 till faust moved at #247) and not picked up a scum trying to push a mislynch on someone who might have been quite an easy wagon. Later on, e and I are both on him with no further traction, though by that point EFHW and WCD have bigger wagons anyway.

I'd also say it's likely that at least one of Joseph and infangthief is a townie, because if they were both scum, I would have expected Fang to hope off the bigger wagon that picked up on Joseph around #381.

[WestCoastDidds]

 (Note for newbies who may not have come across this before: Robz and mcmc are real-life brothers).

Ah, thank you!

[WestCoastDidds]

While you're technically right, it would certainly be a surprise if there were no scum at all in that set. In the run-up to deadline, we usually end up voting to try to get a lynch through, and the idea of getting someone to claim before lynch had been discussed earlier, so I think that was on most people's minds. So scum probably didn't want to risk being off-wagon entirely in case random panicked townie votes settled somewhere they liked less.

Ah, okay. So it’s a best guess, not a mathematical conclusion. And it makes sense that at least one scum would be there, because why not and maybe it provides insurance. Since we didn’t have to get to a lynch threshold, everything about the run up to deadline felt different to me. In retrospect, I wish I’d left my vote where it had been. I shifted my vote (forgetting there wasn’t a need for a majority), not because I thought Robz was scum but because his degree of absence provided no reason to think him town. Which while thin was more compelling to me than the Jospeh argument was mostly “he talked about setup” and the obviously weak case on me was pretty much just people following faust’s “meh”.  EFHW still seems the most anti-town to me, but why was faust protecting her?

From the Robz wagon, I need to reread PPS and Fang, but the folks on the singleton votes also seem worth scrutiny.

[Dylan32]

Yeah in reading how EoD went (sorry I wasn't here, had a meeting that went from 9 to 11 and I didn't get around early enough to log in before), I can pretty easily see scum narratives for fang, WCD, and EFHW, but not as partners. Although I just realized that they all actually involve scum!Joseph and variations on trying to bus early, then avoid the lynch or switch to him late as momentum dies on him and builds on Robz.  Vote: Joseph

[infangthief]

Personally, I'd missed that he had a several-day-long VLA posted after his slow start to the game.

Me too. Found it now in the dedicated VLA thread. And a stern reminder at that! I just assumed people posted their VLA's in-game.
Well he's back today, good time to take on the IC mantle?

[infangthief]

Did no-one see it? No one mentioned it in game, as far as I saw. faust requested a couple of prods, so presumably he hadn't seen it?

[Swowl]

Apologies for being absent. My students took up more time than expected with the Halloween Holiday.
I will have more detail in the morning.
However, for now, the core point, for me at least... is that skum could not of known that Robz was IC (therefore they did not expect to have to deal with a Town flip on Day 2).
The main wagons seemed to be Joseph and Robz. There is no way of knowing whether or not they are BOTH town or not (something that Skum would know). So, instead of focusing on Joseph, I think we would be better suited focusing at least some effort on those switching between the Joseph/Robz wagons, as well as those that avoided them all together.

[infangthief]

So that means at least one scum in {e, PPS, Joseph, WCD, Space, ingathief}

Although I'm town and was the second most popular lynch target. Which means it wasn't scum at the end trying to force a mislynch and avoid a scum lynch

Your last sentence here sounds like you're trying to excuse me from your scum pool. I mean, thanks, but, it seems a little contrived. You'd like to be friends?

[infangthief]

So, instead of focusing on Joseph, I think we would be better suited focusing at least some effort on those switching between the Joseph/Robz wagons, as well as those that avoided them all together.

So let's see.
Exhibit A: Me (switched from Joseph to Robz)
Exhibit B: Space (switched from Joseph to Awaclus to Robz)
Exhibit C: EFHW (switched from Joseph to Robz back to Joseph)
Exhibit D: Awaclus (avoided both)
Exhibit E: E (switched from Joseph to Robz, but 24h before deadline)
Exhibit F: Dylan (avoided both)
Exhibit G: Mcmc (avoided both)
Exhibit H: DatSwan (avoided day 1)

8 out of 12. Good to narrow things down...

[infangthief]

I think it is reasonable to scrutinize the Robz wagon (and to be clear I'm not entirely comfortable with my position on it!) so don't let me stop those who are doing that, or follow DatSwan's suggestion.

I do feel, however, that the plurality lynch mechanic meant we got less info out of that end of day than we would with a normal majority lynch situation.
Joseph, faust and hypercube alerted us to dangers in #350, #356 and #380, but we still ended up without anything near a majority vote, and a real possibility at the end of a Joseph lynch with no chance for him to claim.

I think personally I'm going to focus effort on rereading a few key people. WCD, e, maybe Awaclus.

[hypercube]

Ah, okay. So it’s a best guess, not a mathematical conclusion. And it makes sense that at least one scum would be there, because why not and maybe it provides insurance. Since we didn’t have to get to a lynch threshold, everything about the run up to deadline felt different to me. In retrospect, I wish I’d left my vote where it had been. I shifted my vote (forgetting there wasn’t a need for a majority), not because I thought Robz was scum but because his degree of absence provided no reason to think him town. Which while thin was more compelling to me than the Jospeh argument was mostly “he talked about setup” and the obviously weak case on me was pretty much just people following faust’s “meh”.  EFHW still seems the most anti-town to me, but why was faust protecting her?

Weak cases are still better than no case at all. If you're town and you don't have any information about someone's alignment, on D1 you should assume they have a 10/13 chance of being town. You shouldn't just avoid voting for people because someone has made a weak case against them at a time where we don't have very much information.

[hypercube]

So, instead of focusing on Joseph, I think we would be better suited focusing at least some effort on those switching between the Joseph/Robz wagons, as well as those that avoided them all together.

So let's see.
Exhibit A: Me (switched from Joseph to Robz)
Exhibit B: Space (switched from Joseph to Awaclus to Robz)
Exhibit C: EFHW (switched from Joseph to Robz back to Joseph)
Exhibit D: Awaclus (avoided both)
Exhibit E: E (switched from Joseph to Robz, but 24h before deadline)
Exhibit F: Dylan (avoided both)
Exhibit G: Mcmc (avoided both)
Exhibit H: DatSwan (avoided day 1)

8 out of 12. Good to narrow things down...

Awaclus at least showed up before the lynch to indicate he was OK with it being Robz, which at that point was basically a tacit Robz vote.

[2.71828.....]

I voted for Robz because of his statement about quicklynching someone.  As pointed out D1 by someone else, I thought it was just the thing scum!Robz might do.

That being said, it is a simple numbers game to say that scum was on the wagon, but it is also a simple numbers game to say scum was off the wagon.

I actually think plurality lynch gives us more information at the end of day than a majority lynch, because scum have all the excuses in the world to join a majority, etc.  But in plurality you should be voting who you want to vote.  I know I mentioned I might switch to space at EoD, but decided to stay on Robz because I thought he was the best viable lynch.  I think moving to space today is a good place to be.

vote: Space

[2.71828.....]

I think it is reasonable to scrutinize the Robz wagon (and to be clear I'm not entirely comfortable with my position on it!) so don't let me stop those who are doing that, or follow DatSwan's suggestion.

I do feel, however, that the plurality lynch mechanic meant we got less info out of that end of day than we would with a normal majority lynch situation.
Joseph, faust and hypercube alerted us to dangers in #350, #356 and #380, but we still ended up without anything near a majority vote, and a real possibility at the end of a Joseph lynch with no chance for him to claim.

I think personally I'm going to focus effort on rereading a few key people. WCD, e, maybe Awaclus.

Awaclus and myself are both town.  From your very narrow pool I would then suggest focusing on WCD. 

[hypercube]

At this point I think Space is town. I somewhat regret moving my vote to them yesterday, I think staying on Joseph and trying to convince people to move there could have been better.

[Joseph2302]

At this point I think Space is town. I somewhat regret moving my vote to them yesterday, I think staying on Joseph and trying to convince people to move there could have been better.

Hypercube and Space scum team perhaps?

[Joseph2302]

Vote: Space Seems good to me for now

[Robz888]

Vote: Space also seems good to me.


Can someone summarize for me what happened at the end of the previous day, how I became the choice?

[Dylan32]

I think it is reasonable to scrutinize the Robz wagon (and to be clear I'm not entirely comfortable with my position on it!) so don't let me stop those who are doing that, or follow DatSwan's suggestion.

I do feel, however, that the plurality lynch mechanic meant we got less info out of that end of day than we would with a normal majority lynch situation.
Joseph, faust and hypercube alerted us to dangers in #350, #356 and #380, but we still ended up without anything near a majority vote, and a real possibility at the end of a Joseph lynch with no chance for him to claim.

I think personally I'm going to focus effort on rereading a few key people. WCD, e, maybe Awaclus.

Bolded part just doesn't seem like something town would add it there.

DatSwan's recent post feels maybe a little partnery towards Joseph.

ppe 1

[Robz888]

I think it is reasonable to scrutinize the Robz wagon (and to be clear I'm not entirely comfortable with my position on it!) so don't let me stop those who are doing that, or follow DatSwan's suggestion.

I do feel, however, that the plurality lynch mechanic meant we got less info out of that end of day than we would with a normal majority lynch situation.
Joseph, faust and hypercube alerted us to dangers in #350, #356 and #380, but we still ended up without anything near a majority vote, and a real possibility at the end of a Joseph lynch with no chance for him to claim.

I think personally I'm going to focus effort on rereading a few key people. WCD, e, maybe Awaclus.

Bolded part just doesn't seem like something town would add it there.

DatSwan's recent post feels maybe a little partnery towards Joseph.

ppe 1

I agree with this, and have a much bigger scumread on infangthief now.