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Dominion Log Statistics

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faust:
Another surprising bit of data: Tax has a completely average first player advantage.

trivialknot:
Castles!

The likelihood that each castle will be gained are, in order:
73%, 60%, 51%, 47%, 43%, 38%, 33%, 26%.

Lower-ranked players are more likely to gain each Castle, so I think the most common situation is a lower-ranked player going for the Castles pile, and the higher-ranked player tactically swiping a few.  Which ones are the best swiping targets?

Gain % for higher-ranked player / gain % for lower-ranked player:
35/38, 25/35, 22/29, 23/23, 19/23, 16/22, 16/17, 15/11

So the favorite swiping targets appear to be Humble, Haunted, Grand, and King's.

trivialknot:

--- Quote from: faust on September 18, 2018, 01:47:28 am ---What is very interesting to me is that a lot of trashers have negative gain advantage. Amulet is at -11%, Raze even at -18%, and Chapel and Steward both at -4% (numbers where only 1 player gains it). That seems to indicate that trashing is overvalued in the current metagame.

--- End quote ---
I'm not sure that's true of trashers in general.  Sentry is at +13%, Plan is +3%, Cemetery is +1%.  There isn't an easy way to look at them all together though, so I'm not sure.

Raze in particular is interesting, because it's -18% if you correct for skill, and -1% if you don't correct for skill.  That suggests to me that Raze really is overrated by higher-ranked players.

Awaclus:

--- Quote from: faust on September 18, 2018, 11:00:30 am ---Another surprising bit of data: Tax has a completely average first player advantage.

--- End quote ---

That's not that surprising IMO. A lot of the time, you just buy the exact same cards in the opening as your opponent does regardless of Tax.

trivialknot:
Another question: can you extract statistics on Mountain Pass bids?

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