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[EFHW]

Heads up basically via tonight karaoke night.

This sounds like a cryptic crossword.

[WestCoastDidds]

So are you the SK?

Nope. But it seems like you might be.

Why?

Because you seem to be arguing that there isn’t a a serial killer and I can’t see how that is any sort of logical.

Datswan, I hadn’t realized that the serial killer benefitted scum, so thanks for the pro tip. Although I’m fairly certain she is in the game, I don’t have any idea about how to go about finding that person.

[silverspawn]

vote: WCD

One plausible reason for why a person will assume the existence of a SK is that they have hidden knowledge. Either they are the SK, or they are mafia who killed iguana and thus know that there was another kill not directly explained by the role.

For anyone without extra information, the evidence for the SK is... not quite poor, but not particularly good, eitehr. We don't know whether Bart is in the game, if she is we don't know whether she is a SK. She could be town (like a vig), or scum. The second death is also only weak evidence; we know that iguana has a mechanism in his role that would explain it, and even if it didn't, it's an RMM, so there could be plenty of other reasons.

Without hidden information, being certain about the existence of a SK is illogical. WCD is the only player who did that. And the idea that I am the SK because I don't jump to the conclusion doens't make any sense, either.

[silverspawn]

I'll also clarify that the reason I didn't want us to lynch WCD yesterday is that I suspect more material from her would be particularly valuable. Like, you don't lynch the people who are the easiest to read early; they are the ones where reads are better in general and usually they also improve more from one day to the next. If you bother to go back and look you'll see that I never said I think she's towny, only that I don't want to vote for her.

[silverspawn]

Admittedly the alternative explanation that she is honestly wrong about the probability of a SK is plausible, too, but still, it's some evidence.

[WestCoastDidds]

I could definitely be wrong, and since I’ve never played in a game with an SK, I don’t really know what that is like.

But I think the character roles matter in this particular game. The roles we have seen so far were predictable and their powers were complex but mirrored the program. As a result, I feel certain there is a Dirk, Todd, and Farrah who are all town and probably have ass-kicking powers. An Amanda and maybe some other Rowdy 3 who are town, but more vanilla.There would be a Bart and maybe a Ken who are rando killers, but townish. Perhaps some assorted cops or FBI agents who are town, and then Gordon and the Men of the Machine are the baddies. I think they can probably do some sort of soul swapping.

Now, I don’t really know how that helps us move forward but when thinking about why igu and Asher died, it’s helpful for me to think about who has killing abilities. Could be that Asher was NK and igu followed the wrong person as a girl or a dog (I don’t remember the condition) but that seems more difficult to know rather than working on the assumption that there are multiple possible kills.

I also wonder if Awaclus was able to do any of his powers N0 so that we might see his influence again. He, along with Dirk and Todd, are probably the only ones to time travel.

That’s all over the place, I know, but that is what’s in my head right now.

[Hydrad]

I feel like there might be 2 NKs but it doesn't really matter yet? We will find out in future nights anyways so we don't have to worry to hard yet.

[gkrieg13]

silver is scum here.

[Galzria]

silver is scum here.

I'm inclined to agree. SK or Mafia? If the former, is it better to lynch now, or wait to give him a chance at shooting Mafia? I think I favor waiting and letting him shoot - but that also complicates my PR.

[gkrieg13]

silver is scum here.

I'm inclined to agree. SK or Mafia? If the former, is it better to lynch now, or wait to give him a chance at shooting Mafia? I think I favor waiting and letting him shoot - but that also complicates my PR.

I don't think we should leave scum alive, especially where we are right now.

[silverspawn]

If anyone is not determined to miss the point, please chime in on WCD.

And seriously, reread iguana. Do not rely on me finding no breadcrumb. I am bad at finding breadcrumbs. They might still be there.

[EFHW]

silver is scum here.

I'm inclined to agree. SK or Mafia? If the former, is it better to lynch now, or wait to give him a chance at shooting Mafia? I think I favor waiting and letting him shoot - but that also complicates my PR.

I don't think we should leave scum alive, especially where we are right now.i

Agree

[EFHW]

If anyone is not determined to miss the point, please chime in on WCD.

And seriously, reread iguana. Do not rely on me finding no breadcrumb. I am bad at finding breadcrumbs. They might still be there.

I looked at his EOD and didn't see anything either.

[WestCoastDidds]

silver is scum here.

Yep, yep

[silverspawn]

If anyone is not determined to miss the point, please chime in on WCD.

And seriously, reread iguana. Do not rely on me finding no breadcrumb. I am bad at finding breadcrumbs. They might still be there.

I looked at his EOD and didn't see anything either.

Alright. What do you think about WCD?

[EFHW]

If anyone is not determined to miss the point, please chime in on WCD.

And seriously, reread iguana. Do not rely on me finding no breadcrumb. I am bad at finding breadcrumbs. They might still be there.

I looked at his EOD and didn't see anything either.

Alright. What do you think about WCD?

I don't think her posts implicate her as SK or mafia, especially since her logic is based mostly on flavor.

It was worth looking for a breadcrumb from iguana. I don't know why he didn't leave one. If had, then it might have been a helpful lead.

[silverspawn]

Do you agree that a SK or mafia who killed iguana is more likely to believe that there is a SK than a town?

[EFHW]

Do you agree that a SK or mafia who killed iguana is more likely to believe that there is a SK than a town?

I don't think the SK or mafia would be spending time on the subject. Especially not the SK.

[EFHW]

Do you agree that a SK or mafia who killed iguana is more likely to believe that there is a SK than a town?

I don't think the SK or mafia would be spending time on the subject. Especially not the SK.

But yes, their extra information could give them a greater degree of certainty.

[silverspawn]

Do you agree that a SK or mafia who killed iguana is more likely to believe that there is a SK than a town?

I don't think the SK or mafia would be spending time on the subject. Especially not the SK.

But yes, their extra information could give them a greater degree of certainty.

well, then by the law of bayes, since WCD was more certian than anyone else, that does implicate her as being scum.

Do you agree that a SK or mafia who killed iguana is more likely to believe that there is a SK than a town?

I don't think the SK or mafia would be spending time on the subject. Especially not the SK.

If we were talking about Robz or faust, sure. But we're talking about WCD. A new!scum thing to do is to be very aware of having to talk about the SK as if you're not the SK, which then leads to talking about it too much. It's a classic tell.

[Swowl]

Also morgrim didn’t you claim det zimm?
Any results we could use to jumpstart this?

[EFHW]

silver, can you elaborate on this Bayesian thing?

[silverspawn]

silver, can you elaborate on this Bayesian thing?

Yeah, so the law is qualitatively super simple. Theories become more likely if they make good predictions and vice versa. Or put differently, if A makes B more likely, than B makes A more likely, always.

And this case, WCD having hidden information makes her more likely to believe there is a SK, therefore WCD believing there is a SK makes her more likely to have hidden information.

[silverspawn]

The only real debate should be about how significant it is. You could argue it's a minor thing. But WCD's behavior is scummy, too. People were talking about this day 1 – correctly, I think.

[SpaceAnemone]

The only real debate should be about how significant it is. You could argue it's a minor thing. But WCD's behavior is scummy, too. People were talking about this day 1 – correctly, I think.

I think it's not terribly significant right now, because it's easy for people to get the wrong idea about overall likelihoods of roles being in the game, and I might expect that to be compounded if most of those roles sound unfamiliar.

It's also worth noting that, having just re-read Iguana looking for breadcrumbs as you'd suggested, he was apparently townreading WCD by the end -- see #341.