Urgh, busy night. Seems reasonably likely that ash was the NK and Iguana died by targeting the wrong person while in human form. I need to read back to work out who Iguana would have been scumreading, and work out whether he'd have played to die as a way of catching scum at all anyway, especially with a randomly switching role like that.
If that leaves Ash as the NK, then it kind of points to older players who're more aware of his big meta. I don't see Ash as that big and scary a target, and I suspect others who think a bit more like me (silver, for isntance) would leave him be as scum just because he has a high chance of lying to town and self-destructing even as town.
Then there's the good old "why didn't Galz/gkrieg die?" thing. There's bound to be wifom in here somewhere along the line, though. More reading and thinking when I'm not at work...
Bold - Why? I mean, certainly it's possible - but as Iguana didn't really leave any breadcrumbed clues as to whom he might have targeted... I don't know. Why would you assume this to be true over the potential for a Vig/SK to have shot him though?
Italicized - This paragraph is kind of contradictory, and in general I just don't really agree that much. Having played with Ash for a very long time, I'm very familiar with him as a player. I find it almost funny that the Myth is so much bigger than the Man in this case. His history is blown up to be much more than it ever actually was. The contradictory thought process is that older players would be more scared of him, whereas new players would be willing to wait it out for him to self destruct as town based on his history - but if anybody were to be familiar with that sort of trend from him, it would in fact be the older players, not the newer ones.
Underlined - This trend (and thought process) kinda ran it's course a few games back. I've been alive as town into the late game (penultimate LyLo last game, LyLo the game before) much more recently. The game before that I was lynched D1, and the game prior to that I was, I believe, killed N1. I lose track.
My point though, is that in general lately (and especially with the number of newer players), there's been less of a trend towards mine or any other players individual deaths in the early nights.
A priori I would say WCD is the most likely target, just because iguana did end up changing his mind about her. It seems like the kind of thing where you want to get confirmation. On the other hand, it's kind of reckless to just use it on whoever.
It's also possible that he didn't die due to the WV but that we have a SK or a vig (like bart)
Or he was a dog.
EFHW, I'm not sure what you mean here? If he was a Dog, then his PR was that of a Tracker - in which case his death was due to Mafia/Vig/SK - which is basically what SS said.
Actually, SS - you didn't say that his death was potentially caused from a Mafia shot - you only mentioned WV, SK & Vig. Why the omission?