silver and I spent half of D2 accusing Raptor with no other people jumping on the entire day. You love wagon analysis (written before I saw Robz PPE post). That should instantly kill this argument for you, or else I don't understand the manner in which you pick and choose the wagons to look at.
I think it's the latter: you voting Raptor in isolation yesterday is not very interesting all for wagon analysis, because there weren't lots of other confirmed townies on the wagon, and there was no cause to wonder why more scum weren't touching the wagon.. everyone was behaving as normal.
What would have made it onto my radar was if you had been pushing him at a point in D1, and a big wagon had built up, and then everyone but you on that wagon had flipped town or been ICd. Then I would suspect strongly that either you were scum, and other scums didn't want to pile on too conspicuously, or that Raptor was scum, and other scums didn't want to pile on at all. And it that case, I'm not awarding anyone towncred, or even stating that they're not paired with one another: I'm simply saying that one or more of the unknowns (either the person the wagon is on, or one of the voters) is
statistically likely to be scum.
It also leads to the kinds of constraints I generate being "at least one of these n people is scum" which is equivalent to "not all of this set is town". Your proposed "silver and Raptor aren't partners" constraint is of the form "not all of these X people is scum", for x=2, which is also equivalent to "at least one of these n people is town". Your kind of constraint is probably more useful at this stage in the game, because if we had two overlapping pairs of "not both" constraints, then we could confidently label the fifth one of the set scum. However, I know less about how much we can trust those kinds of constraints, and they worry me because scum know to bus and to create distance, so it's something they're much better able to control and fake. I've yet to see scum effectively evade having to push along town wagons they want to lynch on, though if gkrieg is scum here then he's done a good job of it.
PPE 3: including myself... forgot I had this response partially written but unposted in another tab.