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[SpaceAnemone]

I'm going to be offline now till around noon forum time because I have things to go out and do.

Tomorrow is a public holiday in the UK, and I'll be VLA pretty much the whole day. Ill probably read by phone and possibly check in at some point, but not my usual levels.

PPE 1: It's something I considered. I can give listings of which missing people posted during which periods, but not till tonight. Have to run now.

[EFHW]

At this point, I think our scum are the three lurkers.

[silverspawn]

So why would you protest? And why are you so sure I'm town anyways? I admitted the coalition offer was planned before I saw my qt. I was one of the main 2 wagons yesterday. I've voted and accused a bunch of confirmed town, including a mason. You're right, I am town. But still. What exactly have I done that's so convincing to you and nobody else?

Lots.

There's the deal, for one. I know I said that doesn't give you town points anymore because you planned it beforehand, but it actually does because you admitted to having planed it. Not much, but some. Then there's the EoD behavior with waiting until the last possible moment to switch. Your case on me is a big one, we've been over that. Your case on raptor, which is now becoming more relevant, since now the prior for any of you to be scum is 75%, so raptor is almost certainly scum.  Then there's how you handled my repeated insistence that you're town, which feels very natural. And now there's your (in my opinion) horrible idea that town shouldn't be careful this close to the end of the game, which is totally the kind of recklessness that doesn't seem like a big deal for town but would for scum. And then there's the total lack of evidence for the contrary.

I mean, given that you're now in a pool of 4 people where 3 are guaranteed scum, I'd put the chance that you are scum at maybe 40%. But that corresponds to one of the strongest townreads I've ever had. In order for me to switch I'd have to get a stronger townread on anyone else in that group. That's just not gonna happen. So I'm fine with your gkrieg vote as far as the result goes. But out of principle I'm not going to join you until we've reached a consensus. That's just not good town play. Making rushed decisions may be a town tell, but it's not good play.

Oh, also, there might be an argument – in fact, now that I'm thinking about it, there is an argument – for lynching the strongest scum read first. So I'd ideally want to lynch first raptor, and then either gkrieg or robz.

[silverspawn]

If you ever become a serious candidate, I might go back and turn that into a more elaborate argument. But right now it doesn't really matter whether I convince others.

[EFHW]

It seems the 4 of us all agree on raptor. Lynch there?

[EFHW]

Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.

[gkrieg13]

Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the

Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.

It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!

I actually think that the most likely thing here is that the scumteam is silver-Skumpy-Raptor, which would explain why you felt you had to make that remark. After all, it's a comment on the playstyle/hostility of two members who, if scum, have a strong incentive to behave in exactly that way, whereas my observations are from back in D1 of the game, where they can't make those kinds of behaviours so overtly because they know they'll have to follow through on them for the whole game, and they don't know how later flips will go (in terms of who will be flipped) to know which wagons are going to look too green to be seen on etc...

I agree with the team, although I can see Robz tucked in there. I’m extremely surprised no one fake claimed, which probably means that none of the scum though they could beat the real roleblocker in a 1v1

[gkrieg13]

Wow 2 ICs give the other towns really good PoE. I just have to choose out of the other 4 who I think is town.

Robz has seemed townie to me this game and I think would’ve fake claimed roleblocker had he been scum.

[gkrieg13]

I guess scum didn’t know for sure that there was another role or not, although no one became another mason (UB), so they should have known.

[Robz888]

Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.

That makes for a scum team of gkrieg, silver, and raptor.

Gkrieg is even buddying me in order to dissuade me from voting him!

[gkrieg13]

Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.

That makes for a scum team of gkrieg, silver, and raptor.

Gkrieg is even buddying me in order to dissuade me from voting him!

Or I like think you’re town.

[gkrieg13]

Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?

[Robz888]

Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?

I mean, I will take another look, but I reeeeally don’t see skumpy as scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?

He could be town if you're scum. The fact that there has been no quickhammer probably means that it is not a town-on-town vote, but that's it.

[SpaceAnemone]

@gkrieg, if you want to give me strong evidence that you're town, you could reveal what it is that you think made me town before I was ICd. If that sounds credible enough, it would tip things more in your favour. Otherwise, I do get a bit stuck on the fact that the only other time someone has tried to say I have a tell, they were lying scum. Much of the time, people just get me wrong, you included, at least historically!

Obviously, I gain personally from knowing my tell, so it's a trade-off for you against future games.

Incidentally, this is one reason I would like us to be more sure of the whole scum-team before we proceed with a lynch now, because I'm feeling less optimistic than she is about surviving the night, apparently.

[SpaceAnemone]

Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.

If this is true, then you are saying that the entire Galz wagon, up till 40 seconds before deadline, was totally town-driven. Do you mean that?

You started the wagon at #313. At #421, it was up to a total of six votes on a known town, with the other people who'd joined all being conf!town except for Skumpy (Iguana, TA, Simon, EFHW).

[Robz888]

Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.

If this is true, then you are saying that the entire Galz wagon, up till 40 seconds before deadline, was totally town-driven. Do you mean that?

You started the wagon at #313. At #421, it was up to a total of six votes on a known town, with the other people who'd joined all being conf!town except for Skumpy (Iguana, TA, Simon, EFHW).

I know how much you like wagon analysis, but this is far from impossible.

[Skumpy]

Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the

Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.

It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!

I actually think that the most likely thing here is that the scumteam is silver-Skumpy-Raptor, which would explain why you felt you had to make that remark. After all, it's a comment on the playstyle/hostility of two members who, if scum, have a strong incentive to behave in exactly that way, whereas my observations are from back in D1 of the game, where they can't make those kinds of behaviours so overtly because they know they'll have to follow through on them for the whole game, and they don't know how later flips will go (in terms of who will be flipped) to know which wagons are going to look too green to be seen on etc...

So in addition to the page 32 stuff where they go after (which isn't necessarily a sign they're not both scum; I said it was because of the WAY in which the argument went down. Could I be wrong? Sure), there's also the fact that silver and I spent half of D2 accusing Raptor with no other people jumping on the entire day. You love wagon analysis (written before I saw Robz PPE post). That should instantly kill this argument for you, or else I don't understand the manner in which you pick and choose the wagons to look at.

Therefore, either gkrieg is scum or Robz is scum. If gkrieg is scum, I'm town. No ifs, ands, buts around it. If Robz is scum, well, I guess I don't have a good reason why that makes me town yet. But as you said, there's almost certainly a scum between us. Gkrieg's flip hopefully would convince you.

It seems the 4 of us all agree on raptor. Lynch there?

Because I don't know if I agree with that. I guess I'm basing this off Swan's read. But since he's wrong about me, maybe I shouldn't. I'm pretty confident on 2 of the scum, it's the 3rd I'm hesitating on. It would nice to guarantee not getting shutout. But since I have to make the hard decision eventually for a win to happen, I guess now vs later isn't a big deal.

And now that I think about it, apparently I'm the only person who's having doubts. EFHW thinks he's scum. Space thinks he's scum. Robz and silver think I'm town, so Raptor's scum. Gkrieg think Robz is town, so Raptor's scum. I don't know if gkrieg/Robz/silver would want the sweep or the win more.

At this point, I think our scum are the three lurkers.

But definitely closer than Space! Thank you!

Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.

They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.

[Robz888]

Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?

He could be town if you're scum. The fact that there has been no quickhammer probably means that it is not a town-on-town vote, but that's it.

I think this lack of quick hammer is pretty key. Very likely means gkrieg is scum, or skumpy is scum.

[Robz888]

I guess we don’t have to decide between skumpy and gkrieg though, since silver and raptor are auto scum them. Unless skumpy-gkrieg is scum on scum, which does not seem super likely. Though it would be incredibly clever if they had pulled that off.

[EFHW]

Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?

He could be town if you're scum. The fact that there has been no quickhammer probably means that it is not a town-on-town vote, but that's it.

I think this lack of quick hammer is pretty key. Very likely means gkrieg is scum, or skumpy is scum.

It doesn't mean anything if the scumpartners aren't on at the same time.

I can't take gkrieg or Robz seriously at this point. My mind must be made up.

[EFHW]

Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.

They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.

I'm saying that since Space I suspect opposite scumteams, they will have no good choices for the nk.

[Xxraptorslayer96]

Space and EFHW are IC'd

leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.

Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.   

[Skumpy]

Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.

They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.

I'm saying that since Space I suspect opposite scumteams, they will have no good choices for the nk.

WIFOM is a thing. And since Space's vig status is unknown to all but Space, that could influence things too, potentially.

Let's see if I can work out the Space reasoning. By their beliefs from "2 truths and a lie", there's one leftover scum in {Skumpy/Robz/Gkrieg}. Since there's 1 scum in Skumpy/Robz, as proven by the Galz wagon, Gkrieg is town. Which makes me scum. Admirable. But there's 3 assumptions that require you to get there. I love POE probably more than anyone else. But these are POE assumptions you need to be more careful with. And when it comes to wagon analysis altogether, you have to remember that you have lurkers complicating matters. And in this case: it's a LOT of lurkers on the scumteam.

I can't take gkrieg or Robz seriously at this point. My mind must be made up.

And you think silver is town when basically every dead townie has said "It's silver!" with their dying breath? Not challenging....just questioning.

[Skumpy]

Space and EFHW are IC'd

leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.

Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.

Where the heck did that turnabout come from?