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[silverspawn]

by which I mean they're like subjectively half as likely to be scum than they'd be by default. But hey that is pretty strong.

[silverspawn]

hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.

Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?

I am Vanilla Townie

I believe that both SS and Skumpy are Skum.

I believe that the plan was to have Skumpy put his plan in place for the coalition assuming at least one town would bite, then to have a skum jump on. This gives them the ultimate WIFOM for kill actions. This plan would also suggest that Skum has a low utility of PRs.

I think that this quoted above by SS was not simply based on logic. They have proven with their recent posts that they can take a logical concept and apply it in an illogical way. I think that this agreement to my arbitrary day count plus the overall coalition is just an out for 2 skum players to use down the road. Also, we are D2 now and when skumpy gets to 3 votes I all of a sudden get a random push put on me? This doesn't seem right.

Skumpy has obv laid the groundwork here to vote for me, so EFHW had to start it out.

I still think SS is skum. I want to lynch SS. We should lynch SS. But as I cannot seem to rally votes, I like Skumpy. EFHW I think is Town. XXR I think is Town. IDK about Space or GK or Robz. Obv Awaclus is Town at this point.

@Awaclus - if you do not want TA's read list to be used as a claim list you should update before day end.

Vote: Skumpy

Uhh. And Skumpy wanting to break the contract and me giving a harsh response to that idea was also planned, yes?

[silverspawn]

I'm neither super opposed nor super excited about a Swan lynch. Probably leaning on somewhat liking it. EFHW's summary didn't make them look great I'd say.

But raptor is better.

[Awaclus]

Uhh. And Skumpy wanting to break the contract and me giving a harsh response to that idea was also planned, yes?

Could have been planned, could have been Skumpy doing something non-planned on his own and you telling him not to do it.

[Skumpy]

Awaclus hates TL:DR, you skip to bottom.

OK a reread later, wherein I tunnel 1 idea and get biased in the process.

Preliminaries:
Simon Jester: At the time, #563 matched exactly how I was feeling. I also wanted to flail and see what I could grab hold if, even though I knew nobody would follow. Back to basics thing also made sense. Still a general town tone thing from him overall. Suspicious of me buddying him, feels towny. It's not super easy to fake that stuff, especially from a relative newbie. And above all else, it's an insane risk by scum to not send anybody at all to his defense D1. Especially when you have a chance to get rid of Galz. (To respond to his last post: if the mislynch isn't me, I'm lynched tomorrow. So yeah, lynch me or lynch scum if you want to win).

Space Anemone: My favorite part about playing with Space is that they're probably like the only person who is capable of letting the evidence lead the theory. That's why this game is so hard to win, and why I have little faith in this one since my entire wagon is made of irrational tunnelers.

If the team is gkrieg/Space: First off, this game is most definitely hopeless, and kudos to you guys. In addition, if this is the team, it's tough for me to believe scumGkrieg waddles in with a "murp murp, Space is town, murp murp", waddles out. It's so unnecessary to defend a teammate when all suspicion is directed elsewhere. I have to trust this isn't the team because I don't know if I have other options. Therefore, if gkrieg is not scum, then I'm putting all my eggs in his towntell basket so that I can mega-hold him accountable when it's all over for tunneling me and getting the Space read wrong (sorry). So I'm letting Space be town. Simon, as a town speaking to hopefully another town about someone I believe is town , townI urges maybeTownU to reconsider the scum read on a probable town.

gkrieg13: I'm an OMGDUSER, not an OMGUSER. I've tried to play psychologist before, 'What do I think people would read me as were they either alignment?' This has never worked at all. So the obvious thing to do is try again: I'm surprised that none of EFHW, ss, and Space have really gone after me this game. Space and ss have tried before and given me passes. EFHW has never had to. That's a thing. gkrieg has also never gone after me before. I have to say I imagine this behavior coming more from him being town. I have never had to deal with somebody tunnel me the whole entire game, Awaclus aside. As everybody else has noted, it's such an odd thing to do, that it's gotta be town. Unless you are scum who genuinely thinks I'm playing that awfully. That's a blow to my ego. Also, nobody's voted his way this game, including Simon who's voted literally everybody else, and I'd think maybe some scum would want to bus that. So against my better judgment, gkrieg, have a town button!

So if I'm right (if!): then the entire scum team lies somwhere within {Raptor, EFHW, silver, Robz, Swan}. I went to bed last night with something screaming in my ear "It's Silver/Swan/EFHW!!!" I'm sure that'll end up being nothing...

(I also had a dream I was getting bullied at a community college sort of thing. It was a weird dream. One of the 3 bullies was redheaded; any redheads here?)


So that's the town, scum to come next post.

Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

[Awaclus]

Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".

[silverspawn]

there are also three albums so far, not just one.

[Skumpy]

Vote: DatSwan

It's silver/Swan/X

Well, it would be if I had more self-confidence. I don't. I'm better at finding town and getting the scum from POE than just picking them out. Though speaking of POE, I would be very surprised if there's not a scum in that pair. I've been wrong on D2 2-phers before. I know it's pretty much too late to rely on that with 1 mislynch left. Eh.

The concern I have with Swan is that when the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again, and if Swan gets mislynched, I'm next even if I've worked out the team by then. But wagons aside, I've said the whole game I've felt Swan was scummy, and since I apparently can't vote ss (tinfoil, beepbeepbepbeep!) we're going Swan. Plus I'd rather Swan over ss anyhow.

On #50: (Repeat of old post) Townies, read it, and see if you follow along. I did...after like 4 rereads. Read it now from a scum POV (and assume I'm town). I'm outside the loop, because it was my offer. But still. For me, the jigsaw puzzle clicks into place from a scummy Swan's mind.

hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.

Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

Also, what on earth does this mean:

1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*

Also also, now that I think Simon is town and am forced to give Space town cred, their argument on the Simon wagon is a lot more impactful than I initially gave it credit for. Which, as a reminder, was scum exists in {ss, Swan, Simon, Space}

There wasn't much of a case against ss there. I know he and everybody will call me out on it. Whatever. I read the thread like 2 hours ago. I forgot it. Maybe I'll revisit it again tomorrow. And I reserve the right to change my mind if Swan flips scum. If he doesn't, I don't because I'm dead, either today tomorrow.

Swan: If you want to get a wagon going on ss, be my guest. Find the flaw in my last 2 posts, and if you can't, you'll know ss is scum.

(Also also also response to EFHW about Swan offering the coalition; I was confused by it because it wasn't a very forceful offer, and I didn't realize it was one. Sorry Swan)

As a reminder: aroundish for most of the day, goneish for an hourish before deadline, should be there for all of last hour. Not claiming yet. Don't know why Swan did.

[Skumpy]

Fun (unrelated) fact:

I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?

not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*

Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?

My reaction at the time was this was a fake doctor breadcrumb, and not a typo. I alluded to my wonders later.

And as for DatSwan...

How he has flown completely under the radar so far, I have absolutely no clue. I suspect due in part to Galz's read. But there's a lot I don't trust, such as being the last one to vote (which I think he's done before, even as town, but still something I don't trust), his arbitrary reads which II aptly described as:

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

and his reaction to my coalition offer, which I am now going to settle on as the scummiest response. Maybe other posts interest me too, who knows? So, I'd be OK putting a vote there, but doing so makes it easier for Simon to be the lynch, so I have to stay on TA unless somebody else wants to try starting a wagon there.

Didn't say it at the time because a) I didn't want to call him out if it was genuine and b) It was 100 times more farfetched than the Simon-Skumpy axis theory. I did find it very amusing though. Obviously a moot idea now.

Though now that I mention it: for those of you who think I'm scum AND Swan's town, I would've pushed for Swan to be the NK after reading it. But there's no way a team would've bought it actually.

...carry on.

[Skumpy]

Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".

I have. Plenty, if you'd bother to read my TL:DR stuff since you only have like 12 hours left in this game anyways. But you voting me is all the case I need 

[LaLight]

What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.5

Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Not Voting: (1) SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 11 hours.

[Awaclus]

But you voting me is all the case I need 

No it isn't because your job isn't to convince yourself that you aren't scum, it's to convince me that you aren't scum.

[silverspawn]

Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

[silverspawn]

If we lynch skumpy that just strikes me as super terrible. Especially if that makes people trust their reads more. There is probably 0 scum in {skumpy, datswan, me}

[silverspawn]

I would generally really consider space because they have done nothing to make me believe they're town, except that gkrieg seems to think there's something there

But I also have no reason to believe gkrieg is town. It's conceivable that gkrieg/space are scum buddies. This would mean that almost everyone under scrutiny so far has been town, which seems about right.

[silverspawn]

And then there's robz who's just lurking and also a plausible scum candidate

the bottom line is that I suspect everyone except me is voting for a town right now. (Skumpy, Simon, Datswan) maps to (town, prob town, kinda prob town)

Instead we should be focused on raptor, space, gkrieg, EFHW, Robz. Four of them have gotten almost no pressure and everyone seems to have given up on raptor.

[SpaceAnemone]

Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony

Are you reading that as me pushing for your lynch or something? It's not a push, it's a direct response to gkrieg complaining that EFHW's proposal is a very uninformative lynch. And I more or less agree: lynching you is not that informative, so I summarised all the vague information we might hope to get, and it's weak. I think if anything, you're agreeing with me...

[SpaceAnemone]

I find Skumpy a little townier after his last slew of posts. If I'm to believe he's really town, then the strongest case might be on Robz, looking at how the Galz wagon went.

vote: Robz

He's contributed next to nothing to the game, but flipping him will contribute to some of the PoE. If he's town, I think that will all but confirm Simon as scum, without great loss to town in itself because he's just not doing anything. It also has the advantage of offering information from the wagon gkrieg was not on, which means any residual suspicion on gkrieg can be put aside for not.

If Robz is scum, yay! That will also help me trust Skumpy more, which is useful because he's one of the more active people, even if I don't always agree with his content.

The downside of flipping Robz is that it doesn't help much with PoE for the Raptor/EFHW question.

[SpaceAnemone]

Timings for later: I'm here for a short while on lunch break just now. I have a commitment immediately after work, but should be back on the forum before 9pm my time/4pm forum time, and then I can stick it out till deadline.

[silverspawn]

Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”

No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here..

This is a game with interactions and variables.

Irrelevant. Every situation is a situation with stuff going on. the formula is always true.

[gkrieg13]

Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.

[EFHW]

Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.

Could scum!Skumpy sustain this level of posting? And without slipping up?

[EFHW]

I find Skumpy a little townier after his last slew of posts. If I'm to believe he's really town, then the strongest case might be on Robz, looking at how the Galz wagon went.

vote: Robz

He's contributed next to nothing to the game, but flipping him will contribute to some of the PoE. If he's town, I think that will all but confirm Simon as scum, without great loss to town in itself because he's just not doing anything. It also has the advantage of offering information from the wagon gkrieg was not on, which means any residual suspicion on gkrieg can be put aside for not.

If Robz is scum, yay! That will also help me trust Skumpy more, which is useful because he's one of the more active people, even if I don't always agree with his content.

The downside of flipping Robz is that it doesn't help much with PoE for the Raptor/EFHW question.

You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?

[EFHW]

I will say that this post felt scummy to me and had a pivotal effect on the day. I would vote Robz.
 

Why is there not time to start a new wagon? The Simon lynch feels too easy. Also, him voting for me right here is a pretty terrible move if he's scum, because I'm not voting him currently but might, from his perspective, switch to him if irked. Which would be bad.

I actually do not think a Galz vote is crazy here. His lack of involvement here arguably is more likely to signal that he is scum.

Vote: Galz who is with me?

[SpaceAnemone]

You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?

I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.

The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.