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[Awaclus]

Vote: Skumpy

Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?

I guess I could post his reads from last night.

Towny:

DatSwan
gkrieg
simon

Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor

Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)

The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.

If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.

Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.

[Skumpy]

@gkrieg:

Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.

There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?

Still a question I want an answer to. I don't feel this is partner-y because there's no need for it, barely anybody's gone for either of you. So if you give me like 99% confidence in Space, I'd be comfortable enough for now giving them town status.

I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.

Not really true, I'd do it as scum. Like I said, scum's happy when Galz is dead D1. But in this case, I'm doing it because I had a genuine read and then it was only town trying to get you de-lynched. Again, if you're scum, well played to your partners.

DatSwan is most definitely not an informative lynch. But it's not a superwrong one either. I'm second-guessing whether I really want to be narrowing possibilities, so this is something I can support... I think?

[Skumpy]

Vote: Skumpy

Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?

I guess I could post his reads from last night.

Towny:

DatSwan
gkrieg
simon

Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor

Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)

The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.

If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.

Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.

Better.
Here's the deal with the deal: I offered it to literally EVERYBODY! silver said yes, I said, "I'll wait for Space". silver also didn't accept it at first until Swan pushed him (which I felt was somewhat scummy from Swan. It took me a few tries to understand it, but I can see the pieces connecting from a scum POV). Anyways, Iguana himself said, "maybe for a day", and didn't give more than that. You who is reading the post right now, YOU had a chance to take it, and you said "nah, I'm good". You have my permission to go vote silver if you want, there's apparently enough suspicion coming his way as well.

I was the first to vote Galz. I was the 2nd to vote TA, and the 1st to make some case against him. Those were MY opinions that were well documented. I don't partake in RVS, so if I have a vote, I'm letting you know why. Who was I hiding behind? And it's irrelevant anyways: I try to play from a town mindset as scum and vote the people I think I'd most easily see as scum. If anything, I avoid big wagons.

II died because he was super obvious town. I was not because I'm Skumpy and everybody is always suspicious of me now because of how I write; I always attract early wagons. Why people suspected II, I don't know.

[Skumpy]

Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

[SpaceAnemone]

Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P

More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?

Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?

You have my response to point #1. Points #2 and #3 don't help much. More later

Did the "more later" part just boil down to you deciding to vote Swan, or was there going to be something else? You said points #2 and #3 don't help much, which is a comment on the utility of making the deductions, but not an opinion on the deductions themselves, which was what I was after.

As a reminder:
#2 - I was suggesting from looking at how the early Simon wagon formed that at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum.
#3 - I was suggesting from the later Galz wagon that at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

I'm asking you how much you agree with the deduction in each case. Like "70% sure" or "seems plausible" or something. I feel like this kind of question should be easy for town, because this is precisely the information we have available to us in our scum-hunting, but tricky for scum, because they don't want to tie themselves into agreeing that one of their own might be scum when we get more info for PoE.

[EFHW]

I did actually give my opinion right off, which is that you are making assumptions that can't be counted on. In all three cases, you assume there must be scum on the wagon and eliminate the known town. You do that first with me, then with larger wagons of 5 and 6. Like I said before, it's not impossible that those were all town, though it of course gets less and less likely as the wagon gets bigger. But then the pool gets bigger too, and saying there is one scum in a group of 4 isn't much different from picking randomly. That is why I said it wasn't helpful.

[Swowl]

Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony

[Swowl]

Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”

No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here..

This is a game with interactions and variables. Every interaction is at a minimum a two way street. It is not a math problem. I am not arguing with you’re defn of the theory, just the application of it here.

[EFHW]

I did a reread of DatSwan. Post numbers may be off by one.

It's not as informative as I had hoped. It does concern me that he stated at 383 that he was willing to switch to get a lynch, and then did not do so, instead insisting other people switch to simon. Not a strong scum narrative for that, though. Day 2 he now says he thinks Simon is town and silver is not. He uses silver's EOD as justification, but silver's EOD was virtually identical to his, with the exception that silver was actually willing to switch. It was the case on silver that gave me the scumread. If we lynch him, we'll have a better sense of silver, simon and raptor.

Another similarity between DatSwan and silver is interest in entering into the pact with Skumpy. He challenges silver holding back at first, prodding him into agreeing for Days 1 and 2. I think supporting the pact is scummy, since, as I suggested, it did constrict town's flexibility in finding a lynch. That is to scum's benefit.

51 posts
48 offers Skumpy pact until start of Day 3. (Whatever happened to this?)
51 questions silver not doing agreement with Skumpy yet giving him day 1 pass. Says silver is being scummy because he would have an out allowing him to vote Skumpy last minute.
123 tinfoil hat theory, never shared with us.
194 checks in, says raptor isn't scum
228 Skum to chum list: Scum EFHW Simon Twisted II SS
Null Space GK Robz Skumpy Raptor Galz Chum
232 wants explanation why raptor is scummy.
235 iguana challenges DatSwan for not voing EFHW despite top scumread and opportunity to make it L-1. DatSwan thinks iguana and TA are bussing me for credit.
238 challenged again by iguana he says his reads are just guess work.
240 raptor is town because he'll be easier to lynch later.
241 Response to Iguana "The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment."
242 Challenges iguana's EFHW vote, wants to know why voting there instead of silver.
279 3 candidates for lynch. Doesn't say who they are, votes Simon.
383 Willing to switch but likes simon wagon best
407 Thinks I am town, simon is not.
408 likes Galzria's comments about silver wagon, in which he suggests that those objecting to that wagon are scum.
412 10 minutes later. Not interested in switching.
426 "Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II"
444 Simon more informative, Galz the better player
448 Demands someone hammer simon
DAY 2
479 Thinks masons have shots, wonders about N0. Mason should not claim because more valuable tomorrow than today. Vote count analysis. Assume one scum on each wagon. Notes that Robz, Skumpy, TA, II could have hammered simon. Focuses on Skumpy bc robz and ta were away. Reasonable since we now know II and TA are town. Finds me scummy, unless silver is scum. Says Simon is town - (why not vote Galz then?). Decides to vote silver for his EOD posts and because Galz's top scumread.
500 raptor didn't have internet. Doesn't want to lynch simon, thinking now it could have been two town wagons. "so silver it is for now"
590 Believes TA
593 Skumpy should have hammered. Responding to Space, feels their questions are uncharacteristic since the answers should be obvious.
595 Finds me scummy
596 raptor not scum. On board for EFHW lynch.
635 finds silver's syllogism faulty
637 raptor town bc of his gut read and his response to Skumpy saying he saw him online.
638 TA choose claim order for tomorrow
639 challenges Robz, posts that don't really say anything.
643 asks Robz for reads list

[Swowl]

I think I'm against the end-of-day claim order. At least, if this were a drafting-style setup, then it's clearly bad to give scum a heads-up about the order they'll be claiming in right before we go into a night phase.. that just gives them extra help by greatly reducing the amount of if-then planning they have to do.

For a setup like this one, the impact of that is a bit less clear, but I'm unconvinced that the benefits outweigh the risks, or that of they do, then the claim order itself is really critical enough to have to be decided by an IC over town consensus.

I'm not even through my first coffee of the day yet, though, so that's definitely posted for discussion rather than because I'm feeling confident that it's the right stance..

What about limiting the information? Like top two TRs and top 2 SRs or something?

[Swowl]

I did a reread of DatSwan. Post numbers may be off by one.

It's not as informative as I had hoped. It does concern me that he stated at 383 that he was willing to switch to get a lynch, and then did not do so, instead insisting other people switch to simon. Not a strong scum narrative for that, though. Day 2 he now says he thinks Simon is town and silver is not. He uses silver's EOD as justification, but silver's EOD was virtually identical to his, with the exception that silver was actually willing to switch. It was the case on silver that gave me the scumread. If we lynch him, we'll have a better sense of silver, simon and raptor.

Another similarity between DatSwan and silver is interest in entering into the pact with Skumpy. He challenges silver holding back at first, prodding him into agreeing for Days 1 and 2. I think supporting the pact is scummy, since, as I suggested, it did constrict town's flexibility in finding a lynch. That is to scum's benefit.

51 posts
48 offers Skumpy pact until start of Day 3. (Whatever happened to this?)
51 questions silver not doing agreement with Skumpy yet giving him day 1 pass. Says silver is being scummy because he would have an out allowing him to vote Skumpy last minute.
123 tinfoil hat theory, never shared with us.
194 checks in, says raptor isn't scum
228 Skum to chum list: Scum EFHW Simon Twisted II SS
Null Space GK Robz Skumpy Raptor Galz Chum
232 wants explanation why raptor is scummy.
235 iguana challenges DatSwan for not voing EFHW despite top scumread and opportunity to make it L-1. DatSwan thinks iguana and TA are bussing me for credit.
238 challenged again by iguana he says his reads are just guess work.
240 raptor is town because he'll be easier to lynch later.
241 Response to Iguana "The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment."
242 Challenges iguana's EFHW vote, wants to know why voting there instead of silver.
279 3 candidates for lynch. Doesn't say who they are, votes Simon.
383 Willing to switch but likes simon wagon best
407 Thinks I am town, simon is not.
408 likes Galzria's comments about silver wagon, in which he suggests that those objecting to that wagon are scum.
412 10 minutes later. Not interested in switching.
426 "Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II"
444 Simon more informative, Galz the better player
448 Demands someone hammer simon
DAY 2
479 Thinks masons have shots, wonders about N0. Mason should not claim because more valuable tomorrow than today. Vote count analysis. Assume one scum on each wagon. Notes that Robz, Skumpy, TA, II could have hammered simon. Focuses on Skumpy bc robz and ta were away. Reasonable since we now know II and TA are town. Finds me scummy, unless silver is scum. Says Simon is town - (why not vote Galz then?). Decides to vote silver for his EOD posts and because Galz's top scumread.
500 raptor didn't have internet. Doesn't want to lynch simon, thinking now it could have been two town wagons. "so silver it is for now"
590 Believes TA
593 Skumpy should have hammered. Responding to Space, feels their questions are uncharacteristic since the answers should be obvious.
595 Finds me scummy
596 raptor not scum. On board for EFHW lynch.
635 finds silver's syllogism faulty
637 raptor town bc of his gut read and his response to Skumpy saying he saw him online.
638 TA choose claim order for tomorrow
639 challenges Robz, posts that don't really say anything.
643 asks Robz for reads list

Never said i thought Simon was town. Just said it is more likely it could of been a tvt wagon than one of the switching people are skum. So imo SS>Simon.

[EFHW]

This is what made me think you thought simon was town ...

Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.

... I see that just before you did say this ...

I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW. with one speculation. If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.

... but the impression I take away is that you really believe Simon to be town.

[Swowl]

This is what made me think you thought simon was town ...

Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.

... I see that just before you did say this ...

I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW. with one speculation. If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.

... but the impression I take away is that you really believe Simon to be town.

Coolio - allow me to clear that up. I still think Simon is skummy. For no new reasons from D1 really. But as several people (myself included) have pointed out - the chance that it was tvt d1 makes him a less ideal lynch for previously stated reasons.

[Simon Jester]

Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

[Swowl]

Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

So on one hand I said “if i am skum you are Town” so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we can’t affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.


So it isn’t for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.

[Simon Jester]

Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

So on one hand I said “if i am skum you are Town” so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we can’t affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.


So it isn’t for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.

#2 is exactly the opposite from what I'm saying. Skumpy is basically resigning in his post and even if we are in an unfortunate position we are in no way in a guaranteed loss with a mislynch here. I'm not ready to vote Skumpy yet, he has been one of my strongest townread so far but it's getting weirder and weirder. I'm not against his lynch, but I can't vote there right now. Too much WIFOM and it's making me crazy.

When it comes to you my case is not too strong. I've been waiting for something jumping out for me and your comment made it. Together with EFHW and SpaceA:s reasoning I like your lynch better than anyone elses - I do think it's likely silver is scum if you flips town.
 

[Skumpy]

Time for me to ponder the mysteries of the universe and the meaning of life and M117, in some TBD order.

BTW: Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

[Swowl]

Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

So on one hand I said “if i am skum you are Town” so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we can’t affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.


So it isn’t for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.

#2 is exactly the opposite from what I'm saying. Skumpy is basically resigning in his post and even if we are in an unfortunate position we are in no way in a guaranteed loss with a mislynch here. I'm not ready to vote Skumpy yet, he has been one of my strongest townread so far but it's getting weirder and weirder. I'm not against his lynch, but I can't vote there right now. Too much WIFOM and it's making me crazy.

When it comes to you my case is not too strong. I've been waiting for something jumping out for me and your comment made it. Together with EFHW and SpaceA:s reasoning I like your lynch better than anyone elses - I do think it's likely silver is scum if you flips town.
 

I admit my mistake in that I mis-read your "can afford" as "can't afford". Go ahead and disregard that point.

[Swowl]

hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.

Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?

I am Vanilla Townie

I believe that both SS and Skumpy are Skum.

I believe that the plan was to have Skumpy put his plan in place for the coalition assuming at least one town would bite, then to have a skum jump on. This gives them the ultimate WIFOM for kill actions. This plan would also suggest that Skum has a low utility of PRs.

I think that this quoted above by SS was not simply based on logic. They have proven with their recent posts that they can take a logical concept and apply it in an illogical way. I think that this agreement to my arbitrary day count plus the overall coalition is just an out for 2 skum players to use down the road. Also, we are D2 now and when skumpy gets to 3 votes I all of a sudden get a random push put on me? This doesn't seem right.

Skumpy has obv laid the groundwork here to vote for me, so EFHW had to start it out.

I still think SS is skum. I want to lynch SS. We should lynch SS. But as I cannot seem to rally votes, I like Skumpy. EFHW I think is Town. XXR I think is Town. IDK about Space or GK or Robz. Obv Awaclus is Town at this point.

@Awaclus - if you do not want TA's read list to be used as a claim list you should update before day end.

Vote: Skumpy

[Skumpy]

Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.

To repeat:

Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

No hammers, thanks

[Skumpy]

Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.

[Swowl]

Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.

To repeat:

Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

No hammers, thanks

I absolutely could be wrong.. but I believe your vote is [GK, Raptor, Awaclus, Swan]. It takes 6 to lynch so I think you are L2?

[Swowl]

Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.

PPE or whatever

[silverspawn]

Simon, you seem to think that weird -> probably scum. Totally wrong! Weird -> probably town. That might not be 100% true for everyone, but it's a pretty good general rule.

Skumpy is like one of the most obv!town players that has ever obv!towned without any PR stuff.