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[gkrieg13]

Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl

Why? Afair, scum!space is calm and makes sense, just like they do here. What's the tell?

I won't tell you the tell, because then they would know the tell.  But you are correct that I have more confidence in TA, but he has seemed much less active, so my town read on space is from what they have said.  Basically I trust both of them a lot right now

[silverspawn]

ok, that's fair.

[Skumpy]

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.

Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?

This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan

Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?

I won't speak for all people, but for me: as scum D1, I'm trying to make the most reasonable case possible, which means I may not be aiming for the most dangerous town or hopping on the biggest and easiest wagon. Gkrieg could be scum who thought I was doing a bad job as town and has tunneled me relentlessly. It would be a great move, since nobody's voted him. To be clear, it's also not a hypothesis I'm super confident I'm in, so I'm not ruling you and Swan out of the picture. Robz/ss/Raptor is certainly a possibility. It's not the only one.

Not a great answer, I apologize. But if I think EFHW is town, I don't understand how her move to a big wagon affects the people already there? I guess it's more Monty Hall.

Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?

I've answered this before. I believe it was a dual-town wagon. Therefore, I have no interest in the EOD. Scum tries to look towny as possible. silver could be town who wants to get a lynch through. silver could be scum acting like a town who wants to get a lynch through. Unless Simon's scum, I don't care. As for the case based on a townread on Iguana, it started that way, but after a readthrough, I feel like there's more to it than that.



To ss: That's fair, and I was trying to set a precedent here for something, so sure. But even if I was to stick to my breaking-of-the-contract due to strong confidence in my theory, I have a tough time imagining you getting lynched over Raptor today, so it probably would never have come to it anyways.


But as for the case being bad, I would strongly disagree with that. It's my case, but still. Of the bulleted list, #3 might be a stretch, #4 may not be that relevant. Of the other 3, where is my logic going wrong? Yes, this is mainly based on my feeling that Raptor is scum, so it could be way off. Therefore, I need to try to verify it by voting Raptor (though you being scum without Raptor could also be a thing). And if Raptor flips scum, a lot can still happen, there's a very good chance I wouldn't vote you the next day.

[silverspawn]

To ss: That's fair [...]

good.

[EFHW]

@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P

More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?

Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?

You have my response to point #1. Points #2 and #3 don't help much. More later

[silverspawn]

The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town

If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?

I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch

This is an argument for me being town.

The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!

There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon

Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.

[silverspawn]

So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.

[Skumpy]

The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town

If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?

I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch

This is an argument for me being town.

The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!

There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon

Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.

1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.

2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.

3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.

4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.

5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.

So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.

Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.

I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

[silverspawn]

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

[Swowl]

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”

Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguana’s alignment.

[Robz888]

I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

[Swowl]

Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons

Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.

[Swowl]

I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

[Swowl]

I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

Kind of like this post?
You are flexing your "Town!Meta" too hard here bro

[Robz888]

It’s not intentional, I’m just utterly disengaged from this game for some reason.

[Robz888]

Sorry that sounds blaming. It’s not anybody’s fault but mine

[Swowl]

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

\

you?

[Swowl]

Sorry that sounds blaming. It’s not anybody’s fault but mine

Life sucks. Then you post.... at least like a maybe a reads list?

[Swowl]

The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town

If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?

I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch

This is an argument for me being town.

The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!

There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon

Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.

1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.

2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.

3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.

4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.

5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.

So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.

Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.

I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?

[silverspawn]

Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”

No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here..

[Skumpy]

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”

Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguana’s alignment.

Probability wise, it's correct. I'm just not sure if this is the right scenario to use probability like that. If it is, I don't have a good answer for it.

Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons

Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

\

you?

And now these posts make me wonder you're scum and Raptor's town, if only by gut. I'm not switching my vote, I'm just obligated to say this so that at the end of the game I can say "Well, I wasn't tooootally off".

Look: I'm well aware Raptor could be town. There's some similarities to his best town performance, and many similarities to his lurky town performances. There's some notable differences from his scum performance. But there also comes a time when I just get to "If all you've given in 10 days excluding VLA is a case against me, a town, based on 2 sentences in 526 posts (which even if it was correct in an alternate reality, doesn't make it a good case), why do I want to play with you and keep you around when I have begged numerous times for you to get involved and do a readthrough?" Yes, I'm sure he's busy. But you can set aside 15 minutes a day to think about things. But if he's scum, he KNOWS it's underwhelming, he KNOWS it's not enough, and it is giving me pause now that I consider it. Maybe I'm approaching this game with too much of the "I'm OK with losing as long as it's other peoples' fault" mentality. And then again, I can't townread somebody unless they put in an effort to get me to townread them.

I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?

The last sentence, the 'he' is for Raptor. The stuff before is me laying out reasoning for voting Robz were Raptor to be the lynch today based on EOD and that scummers often spread themselves out amongst the wagons.

Here's the thing about Simon: I KNOW there was 0 scum pushing in his favor EOD1. Unfortunately, I'm the only one who knows that. Scum knew there were several PR's in play, it's a risky move to go after one of their own, even though it does feel to me most of the town PR's are pretty useless, masons excepted. Don't start a big discussion with me on that last part, we don't have time for it.

TA, you do need to weigh in here. I know you're having internet problems, but it would be a big help if you can find away around that for just 2 days.

PPE

[silverspawn]

I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?

[Skumpy]

I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?

Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.

[silverspawn]

you?

You don't seem to ever want to give me an answer that I can understand, but – why?

I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?

Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.

It's not obvious I think, but posting a claim-list pre-emptively is a good idea anyway. We don't have to use it.

General wisdom is that one does not discuss what PRs should do unless one feels strongly that they claim right now. RB has to decide for themself.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think I'm against the end-of-day claim order. At least, if this were a drafting-style setup, then it's clearly bad to give scum a heads-up about the order they'll be claiming in right before we go into a night phase.. that just gives them extra help by greatly reducing the amount of if-then planning they have to do.

For a setup like this one, the impact of that is a bit less clear, but I'm unconvinced that the benefits outweigh the risks, or that of they do, then the claim order itself is really critical enough to have to be decided by an IC over town consensus.

I'm not even through my first coffee of the day yet, though, so that's definitely posted for discussion rather than because I'm feeling confident that it's the right stance..