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[Xxraptorslayer96]

I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4

I’ll get to this later tonight

[gkrieg13]

Skumpy reread:

Hello

Hello

Hello.

Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?

He starts with this coalition thing. He later claims that it is premeditated, but I think it is just something that he did so that he would have something to do at the beginning of the game. I guess I don't read it as scummy as much anymore.

Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?

If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.

vote: skumpy on principle.

Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.

Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.

Next he gives this advice to Simon, which just seems fake.  Seems like they have talked before.  Obviously this only matters if one of them flips scum.

Skumpy then talks about not trusting people that trust him, and does lots of buddying.

That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.

This is very self-concious.  Scummy

I only have one with ss. If others don’t want to vote for me, fine by me.

I see you Simon, but can’t at the moment. I’ll get back to this shortly.

He also has lots of these I'll get back to this shortly, which I know I do a lot as scum.

I actually think skumpy is scum here.

I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.

As sure as you can be with a couple days

I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no

Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.

He is bored, but doesn't want to engage with the person that is calling him scummy.

"If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy." Part of his response to me saying he was trying to conform to his meta.  The last part where he reaffirms he is town this game just seems scummy to me.

I realize there is a lot of bias I have going into this reread.

You know what, it's time to shut about me. I've done way too good a job of taking attention off scum.

Let's ramble about the Galz wagon, which I am indeed currently on.
He has given me nothing to think he's town. My reasons for voting, however, like all D1 reasons, are weak at best. And probably wrong. Additionally, I'm honestly not sure if it's a good vote, going strictly by expected value. I know from experience he's a good town player who can figure the lies out. It would be a shame to lose that D1. Additionally, it would be a shame to throw suspicion on the townies who cause a lynch and save scum from having to use a nightkill on him. But if he's scum, then that's a huge asset, not only by getting rid of a good player, but by putting scum in an uncomfortable position of whether or not they want to bus this.

Which is more important to do in this game, I'm too new to say. So I guess I'm going to side with inertia and wait and see what happens.

Here again he is trying to get the spotlight off of himself.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

So how do you feel about this group of 4 people now?

He pushes heavily against the Simon wagon (obviously we don't know Simon's alignment), something to think about later.

Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria

Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.

Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.

Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.

So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.

To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.

It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.

Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.

Like this seems like pretty heavy pushing away from Simon.  He also says the Galz wagon is interesting, which is not a good enough reason to be voting for it IMO.

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

These two votes just reek of scum.  Obviously this is with the caveat that Simon is also scum, which is a huge assumption.

Also someone who is that self-concious about their posts, I don't know, it just seems like he felt like he needed to post something to not look scummy for not voting for Simon.

Anyway, that's where I kind of stop reading (he is hard to reread because of so much text).

Much of my read is dependent on us not having a both town EOD yesterday and Simon being scum, which is incredibly situational.  I still just get the gut vibe that Skumpy is scum.  I'll look in to more stuff tomorrow.

[silverspawn]

White knighting is a scum tactic

No it's not.

Are you trying to say that Skum does NOT WN as a tactic?

ye.

[silverspawn]

His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum.

Ok, yes. You're right. Forget his reaction. But even then, compared to say Robz he has this thing going on, which could conceivably be a tell. Robz has nothing going on. And last time I felt that his [Robz'] performance was weak and it had to mean he's scum he was just town.

[Skumpy]

Many big stuffs!

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?

His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?

There's 2 forms of utility. Being able to catch scum and being able to convince town you're not scum. Simon's fulfilled the 2nd, apparently only for me. I understand where you're coming from given that you're his top scum read, but, assuming that is he town,  his vote has been haphazard enough and he's been willing enough to listen to my points at any rate that if you, Space, are indeed town, there's hope yet for you to convince him otherwise.


Swan's case: If ss is scum, I don't think the EOD hammer situation is the place to be looking for the evidence. Mostly because I still say it was dual-town. Even if I'm wrong and Simon is scum, then that should make ss town for you, and nullify the entire case. Not to say there isn't stuff against ss (stay tuned for more!)


Space's voting analysis: I have fallen into the trap of requiring there to be scum in subsets before, and I'd be careful about using absolutes. I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.

Having said all that: there is some good stuff. The Simon wagon tells me next to nothing, I don't care about finding the scum in 4 people at this point. The Galz wagon is more interesting. As I've said before, if you are right in your conclusion and I am right in my white knighting, then I would know Robz is scum. But again: it's a dangerous conclusion to be made. Partly because if Robz is lynched today and is town, I'm lynched tomorrow after TA dies tonight, and then the game's over. You also look at the wagons closely without acknowledging Raptor's non-presence on them. If Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3. I've said before Raptor's scum flip would make me feel town on EFHW, so there I shall stay. I guess the vice versa would be true too, but I think Raptor's more likely than EFHW to be scum.

[Skumpy]

gkrieg, you're trying to find Skumpy as scummy. What you need to be doing is trying to find Skumpy as Skummy. I play much differently than everybody else, lumping me under the same standards is going to lead you astray, as it already has. Any time you mention 'self-conscious', my response is 'That's how I play'. The less scummy you think I'm being, the more Skummy I am.

I'll hunt and peck your stuff:

"Lot's of get back to this shortly": I don't plan on making big cases lying in bed in the morning. I don't plan on making big cases in the time just before I leave work. And if you still think saying this stuff is scummy, how about you read the post right before your last big one?

Bored: Yeah, it was a really slow day. Nothing interesting happened. I tried to respond to you, I did type like 10 things that seemed witty to me and would seem stupid to everybody else, so I just cut it. Your entire case through D1 was "I'm pretty sure he's scum". How am I supposed to respond to that?.

Spotlight: At the time, I felt all I was doing was talking about my meta which leads town absolutely nowhere if I suck them in and get them chiming in. Finding scum involves making sure I'm not the center of attention, which still probably happens more than I'd like.

Group of 4: I'm glad you asked! And that somebody asked. More on that later.

Interesting wagon: By interesting, I mean Iguana and Simon were there. And I wanted to be with them rather than against them. So basically the same reasons you voted Simon.

I really haven't been posting all that many long posts. Not until the last couple IRL days at any rate. It's like a 1000% improvement over my posts of yore, sorry if that bores you.

[Skumpy]

Let's chit chat about ss now, shall we?

As a reminder, this was my case D1 against TA (and ss):

@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

Also worth noting that in direct response, Iguana said 'good case! I'm voting ss!', which was the bulk of the evidence for me of TA being the mason.

Now, given that I'm town, that Iguana is town, and that TA is all but certain town, it seems ss must be scum based on the case. I must admit that I had largely ignored this for the better part of D2 in favor of other theories, but as the day's progressed and TA has revealed himself as mason, silver has launched up my scum reads, despite his direct protestations that he wouldn't white knight as scum (as a reminder, I don't care about white knight in the case, only about townread). Why am I not voting there right now? A couple reasons.

First and foremost, the coalition, which we said would be through D2. Am I breaking it? Well, not yet sadly (cue Galz pulling out his hair and screaming from the grave). There are other candidates at this point who I do have my eye on. Namely Raptor. However, whereas yesterday I said I would not start/join a wagon on ss and would not hammer him even if it was needed, today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.

Secondly: As previously mentioned, I'd rather be on Raptor for the time being. The big reason is that there is something in the ss/Raptor team that wants examination. I'm well aware ss is the only other person on the Raptor wagon, and that me posting this could drive him away.

But:

• Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
• Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
• Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
• The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
• The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon

So in conclusion: not voting ss right now because I don't need to be. If I believe both are scum, I'll vote for the one I'm more confident in as being scum and the one who I didn't make a promise to.


Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

[LaLight]

What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.3

Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Twistedarcher, SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.

[SpaceAnemone]

I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.

I'm picking three relatively stalled wagons, and in each case saying that I believe that either the wagon should be on scum, or that scum should have had time to try to get onto it. I'm being careful to state "at least one of" certain groups of people should be quite likely to be scum, rather than "exactly one of".

And sure, I accept that picking three criteria and ignoring scenarios that don't exactly fit those three would be shortsighted of me. I'd feel happier with more evidence and more constraints, and a "softer" application of constraints, but I'm working with what I have.

Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?

That's why I was looking at the earlier game as well. And if Raptor is scum, that makes me a lot more confident of EFHW being town.

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.

Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?

This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan

Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?

[SpaceAnemone]

You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.

Yes, I'm not saying it's a guaranteed 1-v-1, but I'm surprised not to see more suspicion between the pair of you, particularly in the context of where the other current wagons were going. For example, see the last bit of my response to Skumpy, above.

[EFHW]

Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?

[silverspawn]

today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.

This is 100% unacceptable and makes you a liar. If you don't take that back next post I'll policy vote for you until you are lynched regardless of my read of you.

[silverspawn]

agreed that the case is bad.

[EFHW]

@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

[EFHW]

gkrieg's case on Skumpy is also super weak.

[silverspawn]

Honestly, the case is so bad that I'm townreading you pretty hard for making it. I read it again and it really only consists of me saying iguana is towny.

[silverspawn]

so do me the favor and don't violate truth because I really don't want to vote for you, but I will do it if you think you can just break a contract.

[silverspawn]

To back up on that, I think as town you have more of an inside view on the cases you make, and as scum more of an outside view. You certainly try to take on an inside view – at least I do that as scum – but in the end you usually evaluate it for how you think it'll be perceived. It's hard to see how that case survives such a process. And the other thing is that the group (Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy) probably has no scum in them, which makes it even less likely to be a thing scum would say.

[Simon Jester]

Falling behind here a bit, don't have much to add at the moment. Will try to catch up as soon as I can before deadline.

[Robz888]

Falling behind here a bit, don't have much to add at the moment. Will try to catch up as soon as I can before deadline.

Same.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P

More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?

Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg's case on Skumpy is also super weak.

As I state in the case.

[gkrieg13]

Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl

[silverspawn]

Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl

Why? Afair, scum!space is calm and makes sense, just like they do here. What's the tell?

[silverspawn]

(And if you have the same confidence in a claimed mason as you do in a totally unclaimed random person, I would accuse you of being poorly calibrated)