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[faust]

Hydrad, will you give your item to LaLight?

[Hydrad]

Hydrad, will you give your item to LaLight?

sure.

Would you also give your item to someone?

[Hydrad]

actually I guess just incase the day ends right away or something could you send your item to IDPTG?

We can change who you send it to if we want and I'd like to pick me but I guess if I pick myself it could be seen as 2 scumbuddies confirming each other. IDPTG I don't have a real reason on why I picked them but I just kinda wanted to pick someone towny who I don't think scum would like to kill either.

[faust]

actually I guess just incase the day ends right away or something could you send your item to IDPTG?

We can change who you send it to if we want and I'd like to pick me but I guess if I pick myself it could be seen as 2 scumbuddies confirming each other. IDPTG I don't have a real reason on why I picked them but I just kinda wanted to pick someone towny who I don't think scum would like to kill either.

Can do. Of course I would also be interested in receiving Idplay's item but leave that decision up to him.

[LaLight]

who should I motion detect?

[LaLight]

I am thinking someone who isn't going to do anything this night, like... Robz?

[mcmcsalot]

Woah woah woah. Why are we lynching gkrieg isn’t he the most likely explaination for the missed kill and aren’t we pretty sure robz is scum?

[Hydrad]

Actually unvote since I'm going to sleep. Mcmc makes me want to rethink this a bit but I can't yet.

[Hydrad]

Although I don't agree with robz being scum part. I beleive in robz right now.

[LaLight]

isn’t he the most likely explaination for the missed kill?

Galz was commuted as well as Robz, Hydrad was bulletproof as well, how come gkrieg is the most likely?..

[faust]

isn’t he the most likely explaination for the missed kill?

Galz was commuted as well as Robz, Hydrad was bulletproof as well, how come gkrieg is the most likely?..

Hydrad apparently wasn't targeted for a kill though, according to his own words.

[LaLight]

isn’t he the most likely explaination for the missed kill?

Galz was commuted as well as Robz, Hydrad was bulletproof as well, how come gkrieg is the most likely?..

Hydrad apparently wasn't targeted for a kill though, according to his own words.

right. anyway, mcmc thinks gkrieg is a more likely nk target than Robz or Galz which is nonsense

[faust]

isn’t he the most likely explaination for the missed kill?

Galz was commuted as well as Robz, Hydrad was bulletproof as well, how come gkrieg is the most likely?..

Hydrad apparently wasn't targeted for a kill though, according to his own words.

right. anyway, mcmc thinks gkrieg is a more likely nk target than Robz or Galz which is nonsense

Indeed.

[mcmcsalot]

isn’t he the most likely explaination for the missed kill?

Galz was commuted as well as Robz, Hydrad was bulletproof as well, how come gkrieg is the most likely?..

Sorry I missed that. Agreed galz would have been a likely target then. Still need to put some stuff together.

[LaLight]

my vla starts in 3 hours. I am, though, quite content with my vote for today

[faust]

I am thinking someone who isn't going to do anything this night, like... Robz?

Well whoever you target, you probably shouldn't let them know.

[Robz888]

Vote: gkrieg

[faust]

Hydrad unvoted, so I guess this is L-1 again.

[Haddock]

I.

Just.

Wow.  This is so far beyond me right now.
Let me see if rereading gets me anywhere.

I'm not against the gkrieg lynch but I am little scared of it. 

[Haddock]

So let me expand a bit on gkrieg. Now that we have the claiming out of the way, I can actually post a case.

The very first thing to notice is the claim. And for this, let me go on a bit of a tangent. When I got my role, I thought "well this is crap". 1-shot Bodyguard is really not very useful. Then PPS's role mirrored mine and I figured maybe there just is a bit of a theme of "various 1-shot protective roles". Which makes sense with having some powerful roles. Of course, Idplay's claimed item really wraps things up nicely because it means both PPS and me could have gotten the full role.

Now, gkrieg's claim. There is not much reason for someone to be randomly 1-shot BP. It's a boring role, and it doesn't tie in with anything else in an interesting way. But it makes sense for scum!gkrieg to see PPS's flip and decide that he wants to model his role on this. It also makes sense to for scum to cast doubt on who was targeted tonight (it is very unlikely still that gkrieg was targeted, so my money is on Galzria/Robz). At the time, with the knowledge he had, this would have seemed like a good fakeclaim for scum!gkrieg. Of course it got somewhat invalidated by first Idplay's claim - which means that things are not just randomly 1-shot in this setup - and then Hydrad's claim, which means there is actually a BP item.

With this in mind, let us look back at Day 2. At one point, we actually have a wagon on gkrieg. It consists of:

Galzria, Hydrad, PPS, Robz

Now there is a good deal of townies on here. Then comes this from LaLight:

vote: gkrieg L-2

He is so under the radar i kinda forgot he’s in a game

which is a scummy post in and off itself, with weak reasoning. I think it is a partner trying to join the wagon so he will look better, without any intention of following through.

And, lo and behold, then Galzria hops off some time later, and immediately afterwards:

vote: faust, maybe this’ll work this time

LaLight leaves as well.

Over the course of the Day, LaLight continues to switch to various people, but never back to gkrieg. He goes on to vote for Robz, PPS, me again, Idplay. He never goes back to gkrieg.

So there you have it. I think that is our scum team. Add to that that LaLight's claim is itself highly unconfirmable and convenient.

I like this analysis and in spite of the breadcrumbing from Lalight you note later, I'd still prefer to vote Lalight than gkrieg.

gkrieg is a good lynch though.


I think Robz is being honest here.

[Haddock]

Guh.

Lalight would be a good lynch.
So would gkrieg.
So would mcmc.

In that order.

[mcmcsalot]

Haddock Beast - Tracker
Gkrieg Spirit - 1-shot BP, Item to watch from a prior night
IDPTG spirit - 1-shot Reveal Escence, Item to turn X-shot to nightly for beast
mcmc human - vanilla, Item Samurai Jacks Sword (vig for samurai)
faust beast - 1-shot bodyguard, Item Bagpipes (can be used by scotsman)
lalight machine - Motion detector
Hydrad machine - wearing evil disguise, Item one shot bp for machines
Galz human - neighborizer, Commuter Item
Robz human/demon - 2-shot self recruit and Killsmith
Datswan Beast - Item/Flavor Cop, 1-shot Item Swapper
EFHW human - Restless Spirit
PPS creature - 1-shot babysitter

Night one:
Haddock Tracked Faust saw Nothing (confirmed, Faust did nothing) (hydrad pushed for faust to claim that day 2)
IDPTG gave me Reveal Escence (confirmed I got it) (will confirm by using it tonight)
Lalight Motion detected robz and decteted motion (confirmed robz killsmithed galz and was neighborized by galz)
Galz Neighborized robz
Robz killsmithed galz

Night two:
Haddock Tracked Galz, got no result (confirmed galz commuted)
Faust Bodyguarded Galz and insinuated it worked by asking idptg if his item worked if the x-shots were used up
Lalight motion detected haddock and detected motion (confirmed haddock tracked galz)
Galz Commuted himself and Robz
Gkrieg Targeted Datswan and saw noone targeted him Night 1 (only explainable if someone has ninja kill)

So some house keeping

does a players action still occur if they target a commuted player? Would an X-shot be used up targeting a commuted player? Would a player who targeted a commuter appear to have taken an action for detection?

That should clear up the faust/haddock/lalight chain but I expect that it all works out.

THat does leave the strange thing that gkrieg saw noone targeting datswan. However ninja is a thematically understandable scum power.

[gkrieg13]

Y’all are going to quick lynch me while I’m asleep?  Really?  I haven’t even posted or been online since faust’s Case on me. At least let me respond. Let me get to a computer first though.

[mcmcsalot]

We have until July 25 to lynch. I don’t want to extend the day unnecessarily but I want to do some vote analysis. We have had multiple wagons to look at throughout the game.

[mcmcsalot]

Galz can you explain this?

On to Robz - I don't want to lynch him... today. There are factors in play here that you, nor anybody else are aware of. If I do not die tonight, I will strongly consider revealing all the information I have tomorrow. If I do die tonight, you should lynch Robz tomorrow - no matter what he argues or says to the contrary.

You claim that if you die we should lynch robz. But you have now claimed that your lover connection with robz only goes one way and that way is if you die robz dies. So there is no way you die and robz lives.