Topic: Mafia 116: The Magicians Mafia (TOWN WINS!) (Read 78645 times)

Robz888 · « **Reply #650 on:** May 31, 2018, 08:40:25 pm »

Quote from: 2.71828..... on May 31, 2018, 08:34:43 pm

I see walls of text then cool let's lynch e. I still need to reread the posts, but I don't know that I agree with the conclusion

The issue is that if you are town, we have two more lynches, but if you are scum, we only have more lynch. In order to not lynch you, I have to bet that you are less scummy than Space and Awaclus and DatSwan (also, DS will probably be eliminated from the lynch pool if we get one more day).

Robz888 · « **Reply #651 on:** May 31, 2018, 08:41:22 pm »

I mean it's possible DS blocks one of the extra shots scum!E needs to get off tonight. It's also possible scum!E took a crazy bold shot at me last night, or some other night, and has nothing extra left. So we don't lose immediately if we don't lynch him here. Still...

2.71828..... · « **Reply #652 on:** May 31, 2018, 08:54:36 pm »

Ok, yeah. I guess it does make sense from a potential threat position.

That being said, the other potential scenario is simply scum didn't shoot because they knew my lynch would be an easy argument. If scum had successfully killed we would have 4 alive, no lynch today to set up lylo tomorrow.

Since a no kill happened (either through protection or just no kill), it could very well be posturing for lylo. Let's assume scum killed hydrad, no lynch, kill robz. Lylo is me, awaclus, space. Now lylo (if I get lynched) is robz, awaclus, space.

Space and awaclus are both in those scenarios, and they are where I am looking for scum. I think at a minimum (even if we lynch me) I want to have time and provide feedback on who I think is scum between them

Robz888 · « **Reply #653 on:** May 31, 2018, 08:59:54 pm »

Quote from: 2.71828..... on May 31, 2018, 08:54:36 pm

Ok, yeah. I guess it does make sense from a potential threat position.

That being said, the other potential scenario is simply scum didn't shoot because they knew my lynch would be an easy argument. If scum had successfully killed we would have 4 alive, no lynch today to set up lylo tomorrow.

Since a no kill happened (either through protection or just no kill), it could very well be posturing for lylo. Let's assume scum killed hydrad, no lynch, kill robz. Lylo is me, awaclus, space. Now lylo (if I get lynched) is robz, awaclus, space.

Space and awaclus are both in those scenarios, and they are where I am looking for scum. I think at a minimum (even if we lynch me) I want to have time and provide feedback on who I think is scum between them

Hydrad? What?

2.71828..... · « **Reply #654 on:** May 31, 2018, 09:02:01 pm »

DatSwan. Sorry, again. DatSwan. I don't know why I keep doing that

2.71828..... · « **Reply #655 on:** May 31, 2018, 09:03:40 pm »

I don't even have ongoing games with hydrad or anything. I was typing this out on my phone as I walked my dog if that is any excuse

Swowl · « **Reply #656 on:** June 01, 2018, 04:41:47 am »

Quote from: 2.71828..... on May 31, 2018, 08:54:36 pm

Ok, yeah. I guess it does make sense from a potential threat position.

That being said, the other potential scenario is simply scum didn't shoot because they knew my lynch would be an easy argument. If scum had successfully killed we would have 4 alive, no lynch today to set up lylo tomorrow.

Since a no kill happened (either through protection or just no kill), it could very well be posturing for lylo. Let's assume scum killed hydrad, no lynch, kill robz. Lylo is me, awaclus, space. Now lylo (if I get lynched) is robz, awaclus, space.

Space and awaclus are both in those scenarios, and they are where I am looking for scum. I think at a minimum (even if we lynch me) I want to have time and provide feedback on who I think is scum between them

Feel the need to point out again that yeah... your points are solid, but I would much rather flip it out between Space and Awaclus tomorrow (or whoever), and lynch you today. It is nothing to do with you or your play... it's just that it makes sense. If there is even a 1% chance in anyone's head saying "oh maybe such and such could happen and we could consider E! tomorrow..." then it is not worth letting you live.

I hate to beat a dead horse - but I purposely left PPS off my skum read list on the lynch list. So there is like 0% reason for skum to believe I would protect PPS (also considering my previous pushes on them). E! eliminating PPS just makes sense as Skum!E. It further "verifies" their role.

The absolute only other possibility that makes sense is that Robz is Skum, given I did not die last night... and that is like a bazillion times less likely than E!

All in all, it doesn't matter - there is only one correct play today and that is to lynch E!

To expand:
Skum!Space = Kills me. Why the hell not? like one reason, really?
Skum!Robz = Kills me. Or maybe Space to set up Town!E, but those are the only two options other than glhf Robz is king of skum.
Skum!Awaclus = Kills me. Again, why the hell wouldn't they?
Skum!E = Kills PPS as they were told to and reserves the vig shot to solidify the win. Or, I suppose, they dumbly shoot 2 people last night (one of which sure as shit wouldn't of been Robz)... so actually yeah no that doesn't make any sense.
Skum!Swan = Town!Doctor... because there is literally no other scenario at this point in which Robz is alive.

All of this adds up to an LCD of Swan/E!/Robz. If ya'll want to hash it out tomorrow that is cool.

But if we lynch E! and he is skum we win.
If we don't lynch E! and he is skum we lose.
If we lynch E! and he is town, we get another chance tomorrow.

Awaclus (or anyone) - poke holes in that please.

Swowl · « **Reply #657 on:** June 01, 2018, 04:43:19 am »

I also believe that if we are going to drag this out to the end of the day then Robz and Space should talk almost exclusively in their private thread.
Robz I will doc you at night, but if E! is left alive you should divulge summaries prior to night.

Swowl · « **Reply #658 on:** June 01, 2018, 04:45:55 am »

Quote from: 2.71828..... on May 31, 2018, 08:54:36 pm

Ok, yeah. I guess it does make sense from a potential threat position.

That being said, the other potential scenario is simply scum didn't shoot because they knew my lynch would be an easy argument. If scum had successfully killed we would have 4 alive, no lynch today to set up lylo tomorrow.

Since a no kill happened (either through protection or just no kill), it could very well be posturing for lylo. Let's assume scum killed hydrad, no lynch, kill robz. Lylo is me, awaclus, space. Now lylo (if I get lynched) is robz, awaclus, space.

Space and awaclus are both in those scenarios, and they are where I am looking for scum. I think at a minimum (even if we lynch me) I want to have time and provide feedback on who I think is scum between them

You mean Space and Awaclus are both in these asinine scenarios where we allow it to go to no lynch? Also to point out that you are in that lylo scenario as well.

Robz888 · « **Reply #659 on:** June 01, 2018, 03:12:40 pm »

Yeah, we all agree we have to lynch E. Probably the best argument against E being scum is that he should have seen this possibility and planned accordingly. But if he had burned his extra shot earlier, of course he would not be able to.

Swowl · « **Reply #660 on:** June 02, 2018, 03:54:21 am »

Guys this sucks can we just fucking boat someone and get done with it

2.71828..... · « **Reply #661 on:** June 02, 2018, 09:55:07 am »

Sorry, some long days at work made it impossible to look at the game.

Robz888 · « **Reply #662 on:** June 02, 2018, 10:43:56 am »

I guess we just need parting thoughts from E and then we can lynch.

SpaceAnemone · « **Reply #663 on:** June 02, 2018, 01:45:18 pm »

Just posting here so I don't accidently pick up prods. I'm talking to Robz over in Hydrad's neighbourhood a bit, but it's pretty slow. Happy to wait for e to have time to post final thoughts.

Awaclus · « **Reply #664 on:** June 02, 2018, 02:07:37 pm »

Yeah, at this point we're really just waiting for e.

2.71828..... · « **Reply #665 on:** June 02, 2018, 02:32:20 pm »

I haven't had time to fully reread, but my gut says space. Robz - I know you are influenced by activity, and sharing a neighborhood is very likely going to influence you in lylo. I ask that you look past that.

Vote: Space for what it's worth

2.71828..... · « **Reply #666 on:** June 02, 2018, 02:33:27 pm »

Feel free to lynch whenever

2.71828..... · « **Reply #667 on:** June 02, 2018, 02:33:45 pm »

Or, you know, lynch space

Robz888 · « **Reply #668 on:** June 02, 2018, 02:44:03 pm »

Yeah, I feel like you're just saying that it's Space because that's what you think I want to hear in order to maybe not lynch you. This feels right, and also necessary.

Vote: E

DatSwan, you better protect me tonight. If I am not alive tomorrow, and DatSwan is, uh, lynch DatSwan, please.

If E isn't scum, I'll be re-reading Awaclus and Space, I guess.

SpaceAnemone · « **Reply #669 on:** June 02, 2018, 05:31:39 pm »

Huh. I feel better about lynching e if I'm the best alternative he can come up with!

vote: e

Awaclus · « **Reply #670 on:** June 02, 2018, 05:41:36 pm »

Vote: e

2.71828..... · « **Reply #671 on:** June 02, 2018, 05:50:32 pm »

Yeah, probably should have taken that second shot last night. Robz, your plan for spaces fake claim totally worked on me and had me second guessing everything.

2.71828..... · « **Reply #672 on:** June 02, 2018, 05:55:03 pm »

Also was totally convinced robz was JOAT because of his D1 start joking about claiming. Which led to not killing robz n2. Which is good I guess since DatSwan protected him

2.71828..... · « **Reply #673 on:** June 02, 2018, 05:57:26 pm »

Lylo with space/Awaclus would have been tough for me anyway I think

2.71828..... · « **Reply #674 on:** June 02, 2018, 05:58:47 pm »

Especially since only one scum had flipped on that D1 wagon and space/Awaclus were both off wagon

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Author Topic: Mafia 116: The Magicians Mafia (TOWN WINS!) (Read 78645 times)