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[Hydrad]

ok super quick reread done.

end thoughts.

scale of 1 - 10. 10 = scum

 gkrieg13(1.4): his posts read towny to me. I like him. don't really wanna lynch if I can help it.
 DatSwan(8.: Scum, my biggest scumread from the reread. Really didn't like the end of day 1 from him.
 Cuzz(6.5): I like remember almost nothing from him most of the time. nothing really struck me as towny from what he was doing.
 O(5.4): uh. ya your kinda there. I'll be honest I don't know what to think of you so i'm just putting you in the middle.
Lalight(4.1): I like you.
 SpaceAnemone(2.5): he also feels towny to me. don't really wanna lynch him either.
EFHW(5): I've never been able to read you.
Galz(14.9): wow possibly the most towny player I have ever seen, he deserves an award.

PPE:6

anyone else catch the funny part about his post?

14.9?

... I am the only skum read...

I thought that he puts skum to 10, then says he himself is 14.9. That's a funny part

oh shoot. -3 for me. I don't know why I keep doing this but I think I remember doing this multiple times when I use this method and I throw myself into the rankings.

[Hydrad]

ok super quick reread done.

end thoughts.

scale of 1 - 10. 10 = scum

 gkrieg13(1.4): his posts read towny to me. I like him. don't really wanna lynch if I can help it.
 DatSwan(8.: Scum, my biggest scumread from the reread. Really didn't like the end of day 1 from him.
 Cuzz(6.5): I like remember almost nothing from him most of the time. nothing really struck me as towny from what he was doing.
 O(5.4): uh. ya your kinda there. I'll be honest I don't know what to think of you so i'm just putting you in the middle.
Lalight(4.1): I like you.
 SpaceAnemone(2.5): he also feels towny to me. don't really wanna lynch him either.
EFHW(5): I've never been able to read you.
Galz(14.9): wow possibly the most towny player I have ever seen, he deserves an award.

PPE:6

anyone else catch the funny part about his post?

14.9?

... I am the only skum read...

I guess you could say that. From my view I also put cuzz as a scum read. I guess I didn't really post a reason there but the number meant I think hes scum. Sorry it wasn't that clear. I just think you are scummier.

Also is skum a new thing? I don't think I ever used to see that.

[Swowl]

ok super quick reread done.

end thoughts.

scale of 1 - 10. 10 = scum

 gkrieg13(1.4): his posts read towny to me. I like him. don't really wanna lynch if I can help it.
 DatSwan(8.: Scum, my biggest scumread from the reread. Really didn't like the end of day 1 from him.
 Cuzz(6.5): I like remember almost nothing from him most of the time. nothing really struck me as towny from what he was doing.
 O(5.4): uh. ya your kinda there. I'll be honest I don't know what to think of you so i'm just putting you in the middle.
Lalight(4.1): I like you.
 SpaceAnemone(2.5): he also feels towny to me. don't really wanna lynch him either.
EFHW(5): I've never been able to read you.
Galz(14.9): wow possibly the most towny player I have ever seen, he deserves an award.

PPE:6

anyone else catch the funny part about his post?

14.9?

... I am the only skum read...

I guess you could say that. From my view I also put cuzz as a scum read. I guess I didn't really post a reason there but the number meant I think hes scum. Sorry it wasn't that clear. I just think you are scummier.

Also is skum a new thing? I don't think I ever used to see that.

skum is a me thing no worries

[EFHW]

We have a problem in that we don't know what Galzria's absence meant. Since he needed a sub, it may have been real life issues and not alignment-specific. He came in very towny at the start of Day 3, while other people came in already decided that he was scum. Those of you voting Galzria - How does your opinion change if you don't consider his absence?

[EFHW]

Vote: DatSwan

I would vote here.

[gkrieg13]

We have a problem in that we don't know what Galzria's absence meant. Since he needed a sub, it may have been real life issues and not alignment-specific. He came in very towny at the start of Day 3, while other people came in already decided that he was scum. Those of you voting Galzria - How does your opinion change if you don't consider his absence?

It doesn't at all.  I have to decide whether I think that the people not on galzria are town or the people on galzria are town.  I think the people voting for galzria are a lot townier than the people not voting for galzria.

[gkrieg13]

For everyone left in the game, you either need to think that galzria is town/SK and all three scum are on wagon (otherwise they would have hammered for the win by now) or that galz is scum and his partners aren't bussing him knowing that there is a townie that isn't voting for him as well.

So for the townie/SK that isn't voting for galz, do you think that the entire scum team is voting for galz/Hydrad right now?  Who is the erring townie who is also voting for galz/Hydrad?

[LaLight]

For everyone left in the game, you either need to think that galzria is town/SK and all three scum are on wagon (otherwise they would have hammered for the win by now) or that galz is scum and his partners aren't bussing him knowing that there is a townie that isn't voting for him as well.

So for the townie/SK that isn't voting for galz, do you think that the entire scum team is voting for galz/Hydrad right now?  Who is the erring townie who is also voting for galz/Hydrad?

Why can’t Galz be scum with only one partner bussing?

[O]

I have EFHW/O as the third scum. Not sure which one but lean O right now.

@Gkrieg Do you think it's likely two town members are not voting for GalzHydra, as is now implied by this statement?

We have some lovely evidence built up. Mainly that EFHW!Scum+GalzHydra!Town and LaLight!Scum + GalzHydra!Town are very unlikely. Surprising that Space hasn't posted and given us the third confirmation.

[Swowl]

We have a problem in that we don't know what Galzria's absence meant. Since he needed a sub, it may have been real life issues and not alignment-specific. He came in very towny at the start of Day 3, while other people came in already decided that he was scum. Those of you voting Galzria - How does your opinion change if you don't consider his absence?

Him quick hammering and then claiming "he is too skummy to be skum" is towny?

[gkrieg13]

For everyone left in the game, you either need to think that galzria is town/SK and all three scum are on wagon (otherwise they would have hammered for the win by now) or that galz is scum and his partners aren't bussing him knowing that there is a townie that isn't voting for him as well.

So for the townie/SK that isn't voting for galz, do you think that the entire scum team is voting for galz/Hydrad right now?  Who is the erring townie who is also voting for galz/Hydrad?

Why can’t Galz be scum with only one partner bussing?

That's fine, but it means that any townie or SK should vote for him in that case, because he is scum.

[Swowl]

Vote: DatSwan

I would vote here.

suprise

[gkrieg13]

I have EFHW/O as the third scum. Not sure which one but lean O right now.

@Gkrieg Do you think it's likely two town members are not voting for GalzHydra, as is now implied by this statement?

We have some lovely evidence built up. Mainly that EFHW!Scum+GalzHydra!Town and LaLight!Scum + GalzHydra!Town are very unlikely. Surprising that Space hasn't posted and given us the third confirmation.

I'm coming to terms with the fact that you are probably town, or at least not scum.  It's hard because I had a scum read on you for so long, but I think the way things are going right now imply that you must be non-mafia.

[gkrieg13]

For everyone left in the game, you either need to think that galzria is town/SK and all three scum are on wagon (otherwise they would have hammered for the win by now) or that galz is scum and his partners aren't bussing him knowing that there is a townie that isn't voting for him as well.

So for the townie/SK that isn't voting for galz, do you think that the entire scum team is voting for galz/Hydrad right now?  Who is the erring townie who is also voting for galz/Hydrad?

Why can’t Galz be scum with only one partner bussing?

I guess my point is that either the entire scum team is on galz right now (so look at the people and decide if you think the entire scum team is there), or galz is scum.  I'm pretty sure there is not a different case to look at.  Those are the only two assuming we are at MYLO and scum is playing optimally.

[Swowl]

For everyone left in the game, you either need to think that galzria is town/SK and all three scum are on wagon (otherwise they would have hammered for the win by now) or that galz is scum and his partners aren't bussing him knowing that there is a townie that isn't voting for him as well.

So for the townie/SK that isn't voting for galz, do you think that the entire scum team is voting for galz/Hydrad right now?  Who is the erring townie who is also voting for galz/Hydrad?

Why can’t Galz be scum with only one partner bussing?

I guess my point is that either the entire scum team is on galz right now (so look at the people and decide if you think the entire scum team is there), or galz is scum.  I'm pretty sure there is not a different case to look at.  Those are the only two assuming we are at MYLO and scum is playing optimally.

this is kind of perfect logic actually.
Either
he mafia and there is a double bus
he mafia and there is a single bus
he mafia and there is no bus
or
he town and all mafia is on him already
he SK and all mafia is on him already

bottom two options are like... extremely unlikely, even factoring out the bias I have in my Skum!GalzHydrad read.

[EFHW]

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

[O]

It's easily worth the trade here and I think it's a quite fair assumption that scum would hammer town!GalzHydrad

There's not even a guarantee that hammering Galzria would lead to a lynch of the hammerer.

[Hydrad]

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

I'm with this. I'm assuming there's an SK since there was some double deaths. Or if there is a vig its still not safe for scum.

[gkrieg13]

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

There are two reasons it would not guarantee a win:

(1) Scum doesn't know who the SK is (this is still very possible, but they should have a townrole cop and probably have a roleblocker/rolestopper with 5 shots that can't have used all their shots yet).  They should be able to block the SK kill tonight and then they have won.

(2) I can't remember this right now, but there was a second reason.

Either way, it would get them a mislynch, that would be very easy to weasel your way out of.  So even though it might not be a direct win, they have a VERY high chance of it being an outright win, and either way it is a mislynch rather than a scum lynch.  There is also the possibility that galz is the SK, in which case it is an outright win for them.

Why else is it not a guaranteed scum win?

[gkrieg13]

It's easily worth the trade here and I think it's a quite fair assumption that scum would hammer town!GalzHydrad

There's not even a guarantee that hammering Galzria would lead to a lynch of the hammerer.

Basically this.

[gkrieg13]

I want everyone not on Hydrad/Galzria to at least check in and tell me why my reasoning is flawed.  The fact that the people not on Hydrad/Galzria aren't trying to get anyone else lynched is bad.  Suggest another option!  Try to put a case together that is stronger than the one on Hydrad/Galzria! 

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

This is just wayyyyyyy too weak of reasoning to not vote for galzria/Hydrad.  Town doesn't sit this long at L-1 when it is potentially MYLO, and there is a 1/5 chance he is the SK.  They just don't.

[Swowl]

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

I'm with this. I'm assuming there's an SK since there was some double deaths. Or if there is a vig its still not safe for scum.

So.... couple thoughts.
1) If there is an SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get an SK lynch, closely followed by the 2nd place finisher - getting a Town lynch.
2) If there is no SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get a Town lynch. Possibly including the additional....
3) If there is a Vig, then from a Mafia perspective, right now, specifically in regards to this situation, the situation is the same as the first one (with the SK).


Any which way you look at it, Mafia either knows or doesn't know that there is a SK (or Vig). But they (assuming) don't know WHO that potential player is. If it is Town!GalzHydrad - then hammering them literally covers alllllllllll of their optimal courses of action (just as it would if "Town!Anyone" was on the block right now).

Additionally, grasping at ridiculous notions like this offers an inherent upside for Skum (assuming now again that it is Skum!GalzHydrad)... it does exactly what Skum would want in this situation - draws out a ton of time and gives them the best chance of forcing a scramble during the last absolute minutes of the day.

[O]

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

I'm with this. I'm assuming there's an SK since there was some double deaths. Or if there is a vig its still not safe for scum.

So.... couple thoughts.
1) If there is an SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get an SK lynch, closely followed by the 2nd place finisher - getting a Town lynch.
2) If there is no SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get a Town lynch. Possibly including the additional....
3) If there is a Vig, then from a Mafia perspective, right now, specifically in regards to this situation, the situation is the same as the first one (with the SK).


Any which way you look at it, Mafia either knows or doesn't know that there is a SK (or Vig). But they (assuming) don't know WHO that potential player is. If it is Town!GalzHydrad - then hammering them literally covers alllllllllll of their optimal courses of action (just as it would if "Town!Anyone" was on the block right now).

Additionally, grasping at ridiculous notions like this offers an inherent upside for Skum (assuming now again that it is Skum!GalzHydrad)... it does exactly what Skum would want in this situation - draws out a ton of time and gives them the best chance of forcing a scramble during the last absolute minutes of the day.

The only vig that can exist is a dayvig. The second night kill is, without exception, from an SK.

[Swowl]

Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.

I'm with this. I'm assuming there's an SK since there was some double deaths. Or if there is a vig its still not safe for scum.

So.... couple thoughts.
1) If there is an SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get an SK lynch, closely followed by the 2nd place finisher - getting a Town lynch.
2) If there is no SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get a Town lynch. Possibly including the additional....
3) If there is a Vig, then from a Mafia perspective, right now, specifically in regards to this situation, the situation is the same as the first one (with the SK).


Any which way you look at it, Mafia either knows or doesn't know that there is a SK (or Vig). But they (assuming) don't know WHO that potential player is. If it is Town!GalzHydrad - then hammering them literally covers alllllllllll of their optimal courses of action (just as it would if "Town!Anyone" was on the block right now).

Additionally, grasping at ridiculous notions like this offers an inherent upside for Skum (assuming now again that it is Skum!GalzHydrad)... it does exactly what Skum would want in this situation - draws out a ton of time and gives them the best chance of forcing a scramble during the last absolute minutes of the day.

The only vig that can exist is a dayvig. The second night kill is, without exception, from an SK.

ok fine cool good note - i mean it changes nothing in regards to the context, but yeah i did not realize that.

[SpaceAnemone]

Also Space's pronouns are either They or She/Her (not sure if Space minds other people correcting, if so apologies!)

Thanks for jumping in there, O! I'm very happy for people to save me the trouble :-) I've also put pronouns into my sig (albeit in quite small writing) just so that nobody has to feel unsure about it.