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Author Topic: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (Game over - Town wins!)  (Read 122323 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #725 on: April 18, 2018, 06:38:44 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).


Also completely outside of Galz Town MO.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #726 on: April 18, 2018, 06:47:02 pm »

I intend to vote Galz. Not doing so right now because 2 votes is technically kinda sorta quickhammer range.
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #727 on: April 18, 2018, 07:08:24 pm »

said it day 1. said it day 2. saying it now.

Vote:Galz

Surprise!

(Serious note: I need to look more into this - Swan is right. He came out D1 gunning for me and for Faust, two of the stronger town players. He's made multiple verifiably false statements and cases against me, and has pushed relentlessly in a way that really, just doesn't feel natural)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #728 on: April 18, 2018, 07:09:22 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).


Also completely outside of Galz Town MO.

Such as this. This is exactly my Town MO as can been seen in literally my last two town games. Now, he could argue that I'm scum attempting to mimic my town MO - but that isn't the case he's made. He's said it ISN'T my town MO. False.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #729 on: April 18, 2018, 07:11:10 pm »

I intend to vote Galz. Not doing so right now because 2 votes is technically kinda sorta quickhammer range.

The sad thing is, in M100, you were certain I was town - and that read lead to a town loss. Here, you're certain that I'm scum... which will (likely) lead to a town loss... which I guess if you're scum isn't all that bad for you haha.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #730 on: April 18, 2018, 07:11:37 pm »

said it day 1. said it day 2. saying it now.

Vote:Galz

Surprise!

(Serious note: I need to look more into this - Swan is right. He came out D1 gunning for me and for Faust, two of the stronger town players. He's made multiple verifiably false statements and cases against me, and has pushed relentlessly in a way that really, just doesn't feel natural)

You two aren't really two of the stronger town players tho.
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #731 on: April 18, 2018, 07:13:00 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).

Yeah this is basically my thought. Sometimes being super scummy and anti-town should get you lynched.

I actually don't disagree. Just like I don't disagree with, you know, sometimes being a serial-lurker with no posts and content should get you lynched... But I would argue such things take a little more thought and consideration in a potential MyLo.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #732 on: April 18, 2018, 07:13:44 pm »

Bleh.

I'm going to start looking at vote analysis in the hopes of actually finding Mafia here. I stand by my hammer of Robz yesterday. Yes, maybe it was "early in the day" still - but I thought that he would flip scum and also thought that NOT hammering him would lead to him getting off the hook. I ask anybody (well, everybody) that wants to vote me over that to really think about it and think of a GOOD narrative for scum!Galz to do that. Really really though. It's essentially putting me in a 1v1 trade with someone that scum!Galz would've known to most likely be town. It's just an awful play. If I end up being the lynch here.... well, I can't exactly blame anyone. I'll fight it, sure because if we're in a 0T or 1T setup my lynch means we lose - but really, a Vig (if they exist) should shoot me well before a lynch actually happens on me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #733 on: April 18, 2018, 07:21:18 pm »

Who do you think the SK shot, Galzria?
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #734 on: April 18, 2018, 07:25:11 pm »

I'm personally finding it less likely that e was the SK kill than the mafia kill.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #735 on: April 18, 2018, 07:42:01 pm »

Comments on setup discussion from other people, and a couple of notes.

I like that O remembered about the 1-shot BP. There is a pretty good chance we have one. How likely they are to have used their shot last night and prevented a kill with it I'm not sure.

I think Galz's comments about dayvig have some merit. If enough people post an intent to vote for someone, and we have a dayvig, I think they should strongly consider using their power at that point.

EFHW's posts make me wonder if she's really as confused about the game setup as she's presenting herself to be.

Why is gkrieg pointing out at \715 that there's a chance of the named tracker being a JK, and not factoring JKing into the possibilities for where the missing NK went? Interesting fact: there is no possibility of having a JK given the flips, but I'm pretty sure gkrieg's presented analysis doesn't go far enough to conclude that this is the case.

Why doesn't Galz's challenge to explain how scum!him thinks acknowledge with certainty that Robz could have been the SK? It's especially relevant given that Robz was acting so similarly this game to how he was last time, when he was the SK.

There is a 31% chance that scum has daytalk active right now.
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #736 on: April 18, 2018, 07:46:37 pm »

I like that O remembered about the 1-shot BP. There is a pretty good chance we have one. How likely they are to have used their shot last night and prevented a kill with it I'm not sure.

Not sure if this is poorly worded or you're misreading the setup but 1-shot BP could have just as easily been used day 1.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #737 on: April 18, 2018, 07:53:37 pm »

I like that O remembered about the 1-shot BP. There is a pretty good chance we have one. How likely they are to have used their shot last night and prevented a kill with it I'm not sure.

Not sure if this is poorly worded or you're misreading the setup but 1-shot BP could have just as easily been used day 1.

Fair, but if you're a 1-shot bulletproofer, do you shoot N1 when we don't even know what the distribution of scum roles is and don't have a good read on everyone yet?
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #738 on: April 18, 2018, 07:58:47 pm »

Who do you think the SK shot, Galzria?

Pfft - Heck if I know. - but I'll dig my hole even deeper for you:

D1 Faust bread crumbed that he was going to track me. Every time my lynch was brought up Faust talked about "Galz can be put off until a future day". I didn't piece it together until after he flipped Tracker D2, but if scum (Mafia or SK) were looking for PR tells that likely led them to Faust. I'm not sure what led to the other scum to choosing Mcmc though, unless they were simply afraid of his reads.

On N2, there are a number of ways that a kill could be prevented:

Mafia shoots SK: This would mean the SK shot 2.718
Mafia Roleblocks SK: This would mean Mafia shot 2.718
Mafia Rolestopper protects a player: This would mean Mafia shot 2.718
Mafia or SK shoot a protected player: We have a 1-shot BulletProofer who targeted N1
Mafia and SK both target 2.718
SK shoots Hidden Commuter: This would mean Mafia shot 2.718.

Most of these point towards 2.718 being the Mafia kill, and actually, only two point towards Mafia knowing the identity of the SK (Mafia shoots SK last night, SK shoots 2.718 /// Mafia Roleblock SK last night and shoot 2.718). So there's a chance that Mafia do not. in fact, know the SK's identity.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

EFHW

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #739 on: April 18, 2018, 08:19:19 pm »

EFHW's posts make me wonder if she's really as confused about the game setup as she's presenting herself to be.
Ha ha. I did forget about the SK letter, but the T thing was a misunderstanding. I had mentally added T's for the VT's that made up the rest of town, as is sometimes done in these setups. The others were only thinking about the 6 rolls.

I don't want to lynch Galzria today. He's made some good suggestions that he could easily have avoided.  Robz was scummy.  I had the same worry about him getting away Day 1 when he wasn't lynched.

I'm currently thinking TWM or Cuzz. gkrieg seems like his town self right now.



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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #740 on: April 18, 2018, 08:22:10 pm »

I like that O remembered about the 1-shot BP. There is a pretty good chance we have one. How likely they are to have used their shot last night and prevented a kill with it I'm not sure.

Not sure if this is poorly worded or you're misreading the setup but 1-shot BP could have just as easily been used day 1.

Fair, but if you're a 1-shot bulletproofer, do you shoot N1 when we don't even know what the distribution of scum roles is and don't have a good read on everyone yet?

Canít you Bp yourself? And dead townies donít make the odds of you successfully blocking a shot any better, so the only reasons to wait would be dead scum and scumreads / PR reads
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #741 on: April 18, 2018, 09:16:48 pm »


It's pretty clear, though you could hear, you truly finally knew
in time, he'd tell his tale the way he'd like it told.
Now he isn't on the phone, and his story might as well be so.

Vote count 3.1

not voting (8): The_Wine_Merchant, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, Galzria, Cuzz, EFHW, O, Gkrieg13

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, April 25 at 8:30am forum time.

Mod Note:

Vote:Galz

The above vote is not correct syntax, so it does not count.


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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #742 on: April 18, 2018, 10:14:57 pm »

EFHW's posts make me wonder if she's really as confused about the game setup as she's presenting herself to be.
Ha ha. I did forget about the SK letter, but the T thing was a misunderstanding. I had mentally added T's for the VT's that made up the rest of town, as is sometimes done in these setups. The others were only thinking about the 6 rolls.

I don't want to lynch Galzria today. He's made some good suggestions that he could easily have avoided.  Robz was scummy.  I had the same worry about him getting away Day 1 when he wasn't lynched.

I'm currently thinking TWM or Cuzz. gkrieg seems like his town self right now.

Oh huh TWM is still in this game.
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #743 on: April 19, 2018, 12:51:51 am »

DAMA and around(ish) for awhile tonight. XxRaptorxX's birthday. Thought ya'll should know.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #744 on: April 19, 2018, 01:32:07 am »

I like that O remembered about the 1-shot BP. There is a pretty good chance we have one. How likely they are to have used their shot last night and prevented a kill with it I'm not sure.

Not sure if this is poorly worded or you're misreading the setup but 1-shot BP could have just as easily been used day 1.

Fair, but if you're a 1-shot bulletproofer, do you shoot N1 when we don't even know what the distribution of scum roles is and don't have a good read on everyone yet?

Canít you Bp yourself? And dead townies donít make the odds of you successfully blocking a shot any better, so the only reasons to wait would be dead scum and scumreads / PR reads

If you could bp yourself it would just be 1-short bulletproof. Everyone would just use it on themselves.
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #745 on: April 19, 2018, 05:03:49 am »

DAMA and around(ish) for awhile tonight. XxRaptorxX's birthday. Thought ya'll should know.

Sad. DAMA over. I'm going to bed. Zzzz
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

iguanaiguana

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #746 on: April 19, 2018, 11:09:12 am »


Well, loving is as loving does
and I'd say we should know because
we both have loved, have lost, and are alone.

Vote count 3.2

not voting (8): The_Wine_Merchant, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, Galzria, Cuzz, EFHW, O, Gkrieg13

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, April 25 at 8:30am forum time.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #747 on: April 19, 2018, 03:02:43 pm »

When I read the thread first thing this morning, someone posted that TWM is still in the game, and then someone posted a DAMA, so read that as being TWM back.

The only posts that have appeared in 10 hours that I've been at work are a vote count, and Galz posting the end of a DAMA. Normally I assume that you USian people go to bed at least a few hours before I wake up!

New theory: TWM was scum or SK, and Galz is a super-scum/super-SK who absorbed him in the night, becoming a Galz-lookalike hydra of scumness but negating an NK from TWM in the process. This is a schadd setup, after all...

Request prod on TWM/rescue mission
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #748 on: April 19, 2018, 03:43:06 pm »

Gonna need a day tu recover after last night.

New theory: TWM was scum or SK, and Galz is a super-scum/super-SK who absorbed him in the night, becoming a Galz-lookalike hydra of scumness but negating an NK from TWM in the process. This is a schadd setup, after all...

This is just fantastic.

----------

On a more serious note:

The lack of action is because scum is content with the current game state - they very much don't want to draw attention away from me, and thus have no real reason to pretend to find scum elsewhere.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #749 on: April 19, 2018, 03:44:34 pm »

I'm going to start looking at vote analysis in the hopes of actually finding Mafia here.

This will happen tomorrow, not today.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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