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Author Topic: M113: sufjan stevens (OH THE WORLD IS A MESS)  (Read 192410 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1725 on: March 19, 2018, 03:30:48 pm »

Vote: faust
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1726 on: March 19, 2018, 03:47:02 pm »

I mean....... I guess if you are town, it feels bad how you hedged really hard on PPS and pushed McMc as the scummier one.

I wanted to delay the vote on these two, since faust was the more obvious scum to me. I hedged because I legitimately thought mcmc seemed scummier but you were making a lot of good points about PPS.

Explain why you thought I was scummy, I don't believe you ever did that yesterday.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1727 on: March 19, 2018, 03:48:59 pm »

I mean....... I guess if you are town, it feels bad how you hedged really hard on PPS and pushed McMc as the scummier one.

I wanted to delay the vote on these two, since faust was the more obvious scum to me. I hedged because I legitimately thought mcmc seemed scummier but you were making a lot of good points about PPS.

Explain why you thought I was scummy, I don't believe you ever did that yesterday.

Sort of just a bad feeling, you fading in the background for so long, you failing to nail any scum this game--you've played so well as town lately! Also you didn't take strong stances about me.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1728 on: March 19, 2018, 04:12:42 pm »

So today is my anniversary but my wife has an hour more of work so I'll try to explain why I think Cuzz is scum right now:

Faust and Cuzz voted for each other yesterday. One had a town motivation, one had a scum motivation.

Let's assume scum!Faust

Scum!Faust's partners are Robz and PPS. He wants anyone else to get lynched on any day after today to win. He's getting heavily scumread and so is his partner PPS, so probably his priority is to muddy the waters and try to deflect attention from his partner. So when Cuzz starts suggesting that he thinks he might want to vote for Faust, why vote back? I have expressed a super strong town read on Cuzz and have defended him at every point through the game when people suggested he was scummy. scum!Faust knows by that point that I am more likely to vote him and that McMc isn't going to move his vote off of PPS because McMc knows he's found scum and isn't decided on Faust vs. Cuzz. The best explanation for why would vote for Cuzz is that his third partner is Cuzz and he wants to try to WIFOM and make us believe that Cuzz is town by setting up a false 1 v. 1. But that would mean that Robz would have to be town, which I just do not believe in a million years after how the end of the day yesterday went.

OTOH, town!Faust's motivation for voting Cuzz when he has been pushing PPS all game is a little obscure and weird - honestly I think Faust's better play would have been to ignore Cuzz and go for PPS; I wouldn't have voted him at all if he had done that I think. But I can think of why he might do it. That being said, I won't create the narrative myself. I want him to explain why he did that himself and really prove it to us - because like I said I'm not 100% convinced.

Okay here is the clincher.

scum!Cuzz's motivation for voting Faust is really clear. At the time, I had been expressing a strong townread on Cuzz. I think he was actually my strongest townread at several points throughout the game. So scum!Cuzz knows his partner PPS is going down if he doesn't do something. He could go ahead and bus PPS and hope to get towncred, but he can't control people's shifting reads and he has to gamble with the idea that I could change my mind on him and figure out the game across the next several days. However, he knows I had been strongly scumreading Faust. So he kind of seeks out my permission to vote for Faust and not PPS, suggesting that his scumread on Faust is just stronger and re-inserting a sort of doubt that maybe McMcsalot is the scummy one, not PPS. I think the way he is talking to me through that whole process and trying to fish for my opinions is really what exposes him as scum. He's trying to probe for how strong my town read on him is and trying to see if I will really go for it if he votes for Faust. Because for him, I think the certainty that I vote Faust and they can seal the game is much better than the long drawn out way where he busses PPS and has to try to get a mislynch through on the following days as the PoE gets better and better.

The town!Cuzz motivation is there too. I mean, he spelled out his reasoning for why he did everything he did really well. But, I think Cuzz is actually just really good at fabricating reasoning. He's a good scum player! I'm impressed! That's partly why I feel pretty bad. Really this guy deserves to win the game for masterfully manipulating me but his partners fumbled the quickhammer and it basically exposed everyone all at once.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1729 on: March 19, 2018, 04:15:32 pm »

I sorta already said this, but I just really don't see why Scum!Faust with Robz/PPS partners suggests that the team is Cuzz/Robz/PPS as his top most likely team when he knows that I am strongly, strongly townreading Cuzz. He's basically suggesting something that is very unlikely to make any headway with me. The only reason to do it is if he really believes that it is true.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1730 on: March 19, 2018, 04:22:13 pm »

So PPS was a one shot Neapolitan, thats a cop that returns Vanilla Townie or Not Vanilla Townie. This means it is very likely Scum PPS targets EFHW, receives "Not Vanilla Townie" and decides to claim his action but not the exact result and scum kills EFHW the next night since they know she is a PR.

Can one Mafia member use a power and Nightkill in the same night? no; nobody can use more than 1 night action at a time

Cuzz was jailkept night 1, if PPS can not have used the NK the same night as his neapolitan shot it % wise makes cuzz slightly less likely to be scum because he had a 50% chance of using the NK which he didn't.

Robz was jailkept night 2, and that is slightly less clearing then the night one jk pending mafia abilty to use actions.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2018, 03:11:20 am by schadd »
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1731 on: March 19, 2018, 04:23:35 pm »

Then if you look at Cuzz and Robz assuming Cuzz/Robz/PPS is the team, you'll see that they consistently through the game have voted with the motivations of keeping that team alive.

Cuzz and Robz both vote for PPS, but only when there isn't really a wagon on him. Cuzz votes for him with what Faust calls a pretty weak reason D1, "trying to start a wagon," and it goes nowhere.

Robz has a reads list where he leaves both Cuzz and DatSwan off and then says "Did I miss anyone? Don't think so." Then in his next post he says "Oh, I missed DatSwan!" but acts like he never noticed that he also missed Cuzz. [Cue Robz telling me that honest-to-goodness-that's-what-really-happened]

Robz votes for Cuzz out of nowhere on the day when we mislynched Lalight, but then never puts much work into the case. He also stays off Lalight all day, staying on Cuzz and doing nothing. I think the scum motivation there is pretty clear. Stay off the inevitable Lalight mislynch, while keeping your vote on a partner who almost certainly is not getting lynched. 

Cuzz and Robz both lurk heavily throughout the parts of the game where we keep creating PPS wagons and then talking ourselves out of actually lynching him, never providing much commentary on PPS during any of that time. Then on the final day they both appear again and get a lot more active; the scum motivation for being active yesterday I think was pretty clear: convince Iguana to lynch someone other than PPS.

Faust's whining about how the game probably isn't winnable anymore is actually towny, even from him.

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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1732 on: March 19, 2018, 04:25:09 pm »

I agree that based on yesterday Robz and Cuzz both pushing Faust over anyone in the PPS vs MCMC scenario seems a whole lot like the scumpartners noticing the tide is turning against PPS and that the remaining townie Iguana has a scum read on Faust and maybe they can make that happen.

PPE: I am agreeing strongly
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1733 on: March 19, 2018, 04:25:37 pm »

SirClemens (7): faust, DatSwan, Cuzz, LaLight, iguanaiguana, The_Wine_Merchant, Galzria
Galzria (2): pingpongsam, SirClemens
SpaceAnemone (2): mcmcsalot, Robz888
LaLight (1): Teproc
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone

not voting (0):

DatSwan (6): The_Wine_Merchant, Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, pingpongsam, mcmcsalot
LaLight (3): iguanaiguana, faust, DatSwan
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone

not voting (1): Ghacob

LaLight (5): The_Wine_Merchant, mcmcsalot, pingpongsam, faust, iguanaiguana
pingpongsam (1): Ghacob
faust (1): LaLight
Cuzz (1): Robz888

not voting (1): Cuzz

pingpongsam (4): mcmcsalot, iguanaiguana, faust, Ghacob
faust (2): Cuzz, pingpongsam

not voting (1): Robz888

PPS:  OFF/ON/ON/OFF
Robz: OFF/ON/OFF/NA
Cuzz: ON/ON/NA/OFF
Faust: ON/OFF/ON/ON
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1734 on: March 19, 2018, 04:25:47 pm »

If you really want to see why Cuzz and Robz are scummy, control-F their posts in the full thread and you can see all the little yellow lines that are super heavy at the very beginning and the very end of the thread and almost disappear through the middle where town was busy slaying each other.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1735 on: March 19, 2018, 04:28:07 pm »

The one thing that irks me is that Day 2 all of Robz/Cuzz/PPS are on wagon, it's not out of the realm of possibility but I want to read that day end and see if that something they needed to do.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1736 on: March 19, 2018, 04:28:44 pm »

Yeah I see that.

I hated that lynch! haha
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1737 on: March 19, 2018, 04:33:51 pm »

Then there's also the fact that if Faust was scum, my vote for him wouldn't have been a quickhammer opportunity for scum. So PPS still might have thought to switch his vote and scare me off his partner, but Robz wouldn't have been viewing the thread with the intention of voting when PPS got on.

So that would mean that, even if Robz is scum, he would have just been viewing the thread to re-read it.

But if you look at Robz' flurry of activity at the end of the day, it looks more like caught scum who is desperately trying to get my vote back on Faust so that he can win the game, not so much like town who was just casually rereading. Actually, town!Robz would have been upset that I voted early and maybe would have tried to talk me out of voting Faust before his reread was over.

So the only possibility left then if it is Faust/Robz/PPS is that it was actually scum!Robz who just happened to be re-reading the thread. Which I dunno, I don't really believe that.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

faust

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1738 on: March 19, 2018, 04:34:08 pm »

I'm here. That vote by Robz is bad and he should feel bad. Or he is scum, which is the most likely scenario. I want to get up to speed enough that I remember why I have the reads on people that I remember having... hopefully that can happen at least before day end.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1739 on: March 19, 2018, 04:35:02 pm »

Also Also, I don't think scum!Robz would have lurked through the game as much if he were partners with Faust. I think scum!Robz would have been more excited about that. The way that scum!Robz lurked points towards partners that he didn't know as well.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1740 on: March 19, 2018, 04:36:36 pm »

Also I am a tad concerned(not that it matters)

Galz - Even Night Watcher
Space(not efhw as I said earlier) - 1 shot cop
TWM - Jailkeeped
Ghacob - Doctor


PPS - "vanilla/not" not even a rolecop...

What terrifying other pr's does scum have to even out this super strong town and bummer we didn't block and kills with 3 nights of jailkeeper, and 3 effective nights of doctor. Strongman Scum is almost a definite thing here. I actually wouldn't be surprised by a strongman and a ninja for scum.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

iguanaiguana

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1741 on: March 19, 2018, 04:42:21 pm »

The one thing that irks me is that Day 2 all of Robz/Cuzz/PPS are on wagon, it's not out of the realm of possibility but I want to read that day end and see if that something they needed to do.

So on this note, isn't it kinda smart to all stack up on wagon? It's sorta high risk, because being on wagon on a mislynch makes you more likely to be lynched the next day, but the endgame benefit is pretty clear - it makes them all look like they are not the team. And on this particular day, I think they really could have predicted that LaLight would be going down next with the way I was already pushing him and dead-set on him being scum.

Ok I'm done for the day.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1742 on: March 19, 2018, 04:50:13 pm »

The one thing that irks me is that Day 2 all of Robz/Cuzz/PPS are on wagon, it's not out of the realm of possibility but I want to read that day end and see if that something they needed to do.

So on this note, isn't it kinda smart to all stack up on wagon? It's sorta high risk, because being on wagon on a mislynch makes you more likely to be lynched the next day, but the endgame benefit is pretty clear - it makes them all look like they are not the team. And on this particular day, I think they really could have predicted that LaLight would be going down next with the way I was already pushing him and dead-set on him being scum.

Ok I'm done for the day.

Yep, I was also pretty huge in pushing for lalights lynch, it was an easy wagon for scum to join
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1743 on: March 19, 2018, 04:52:18 pm »

Robz has a reads list where he leaves both Cuzz and DatSwan off and then says "Did I miss anyone? Don't think so." Then in his next post he says "Oh, I missed DatSwan!" but acts like he never noticed that he also missed Cuzz. [Cue Robz telling me that honest-to-goodness-that's-what-really-happened]

It was honest to goodness that's what really happened. I actually did notice much later that I had completely forgotten about Cuzz when I made this list, which is when I first started getting suspicious of Cuzz... he was flying that far under the radar.

I would have never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever left my partner off that list, swear to god, 100%. This detail should completely acquit me, really.
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Robz888

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1744 on: March 19, 2018, 04:53:02 pm »

The one thing that irks me is that Day 2 all of Robz/Cuzz/PPS are on wagon, it's not out of the realm of possibility but I want to read that day end and see if that something they needed to do.

So on this note, isn't it kinda smart to all stack up on wagon? It's sorta high risk, because being on wagon on a mislynch makes you more likely to be lynched the next day, but the endgame benefit is pretty clear - it makes them all look like they are not the team. And on this particular day, I think they really could have predicted that LaLight would be going down next with the way I was already pushing him and dead-set on him being scum.

Ok I'm done for the day.

Yep, I was also pretty huge in pushing for lalights lynch, it was an easy wagon for scum to join

You have chosen what you want to believe and are now seeing things that obviously don't fit as evidence you are right.
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Cuzz

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 5)
« Reply #1745 on: March 19, 2018, 11:39:44 pm »

heyo I just had a very long day of grading exams and am heading to bed soon, but with Ghacob as the NK I am like 95% sure that the team is faust and Robz. Robz trying to shift the lynch from one of his partners to the other at the end of the day even after pps was confirmed scum was super weird and made no sense from a town perspective.
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schadd

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 5)
« Reply #1746 on: March 20, 2018, 03:10:23 am »

Vote count 5.1

faust (1): Robz888

not voting (4): faust, mcmcsalot, iguanaiguana, Cuzz

with 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. day 5 ends monday, march 26th at 13:30 forum time

mod notes
  • faust is VLA
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'

faust

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 5)
« Reply #1747 on: March 20, 2018, 04:51:47 am »

heyo I just had a very long day of grading exams and am heading to bed soon
This looks like signalling availability for a quickhammer.
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faust

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 5)
« Reply #1748 on: March 20, 2018, 04:52:31 am »

Or I'm just paranoid because the most likely scenario is that Robz is scum.
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faust

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Re: M113: sufjan stevens (day 4)
« Reply #1749 on: March 20, 2018, 04:53:38 am »

I think I can be treated as an IC at this point
Can you explain why?
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