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[Galzria]

Intent to hammer in 4-5 hours, sooner if people want me to ( I doubt it)

Still prefer gals and him jumping on the wagon L-1 is off to me

Because I've ever cared when or where I get on wagons? Speaking of arbitrary lol.

[Galzria]

Hey, let's take bets right now:

O doesn't die tonight and also fails to block the kill. Hell, maybe that's a pretty unlikely thing anyway, right? I'll put money on it being a thing every single night until MyLo when he can deal with forcing a 1v1.

[O]

Intent to hammer in 4-5 hours, sooner if people want me to ( I doubt it)

Still prefer gals and him jumping on the wagon L-1 is off to me

Because I've ever cared when or where I get on wagons? Speaking of arbitrary lol.

Not as town you don’t, but that doesn’t help the argument here

[Eevee]

...
ash’s point about townO being likelier makes sense to me. Not enough to reverse my reads on them just yet, but something to keep in mind. (If this is confusing to someone, ash and O have been feuding over playstyle disagreements in a couple recent games.)

@Great to have you here, theorel! It’s been a while.

O was disputing this day1.  He claims he only played M100 with ash, and in that game ash was in fact scum.  I glanced over sign-ups for regular games from M94+, and there's no games with both ash and O signed up.
O did claim some level of scum-read on ash d1 here (the whole ash-Robz scumteam thing), but it reads rather facetious to me.  I'm having trouble seeing why town!O necessarily targets ash.  This seems like an over-reaction from ash to me rather than a reasonable argument.  i.e. ash thinks O's scum-read on him is super-strong in spite of only minor comments.

You raise some valid points, in this and the subsequent post.

I'm strictly going from memory, and now that I think about it more, I think it's been ash going after O more aggressively than the other way around, fwiw. And again, that's just my memory which isn't the greatest. But, yeah, I don't think it's such a good point from ash anymore, I guess.

I'm fine with Swan being hammered. Seems all of a sudden a lot of people mostly agree on what's going on now. The mcmc-Robz situation has people on both sides, but O and Teproc are now townreads for almost everyone, and Swan is getting townread by no one. Does that mean that we are on the right track, or that we are very lost and scum is happy to enable our mistakes?

I don't think Galzria voting for Swan means much, it's really looking like Swan is going to get lynched either way. Votes are less informative when that's the situation.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

If I'm a PR, I'm targeting Robz, Teproc, or Galz.

vote: DatSwan

[iguanaiguana]

Thread locked.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.FINAL

O (2): ashersky, DatSwan
Robz888 (1): mcmcsalot
Galzria (1): O
DatSwan(7): Teproc, Robz888, Eevee, theorel, gkrieg13, Galzria, IDontPlayThisGame

Not Voting (1): EFHW
With 12 alive it took 7 to lynch. Day 2 will end uhhhhhh right now

[Archetype]

Pikachu's recovery was always tough to figure out.


DatSwan has been lynched! He was Pikachu the Vanilla Good

Night 2 Start!
Day 3 will resume January 8th at 2:20 pm

[Archetype]

One of the best/worst things about Smash 4 is the ability to air dodge without entering the helpless state. Sadly for Marth, this isn't the case in Melee. One small mistake can mean death (which it did).

EFHW has been killed. She was Marth the Good Tracker.


Day 3 Start!

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (10): mcmcsalot, ashersky, Galzria, Robz888, Eevee, gkrieg13, Teproc, theorel, IDontPlayThisGame, O
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 will end January 15th at 2:30 PM.

Thread Unlocked

[ashersky]

Robz, gkrieg, Teproc, Galz...all survive N2?  At least one must be scum.

[gkrieg13]

Robz, gkrieg, Teproc, Galz...all survive N2?  At least one must be scum.

I think you should be including yourself and mcmcsalot in that group.

EFHW not being able to claim any targets though is a real bummer.  Did she sub in before or after the night phase?

[theorel]

EFHW subbed in after night phase.  So, unknown if seanbean even submitted a target night1.

EFHW's last reads (WIFOM, but at least we know they're honest):

I haven't formed any strong scum reads. Here's my list from towny to scummy:

EFHW > Teproc, mcmc, theorel > Eevee, gkrieg, IDPTG, Robz, O > Galz, ash, DatSwan

[ashersky]

Robz, gkrieg, Teproc, Galz...all survive N2?  At least one must be scum.

I think you should be including yourself and mcmcsalot in that group.

EFHW not being able to claim any targets though is a real bummer.  Did she sub in before or after the night phase?

I actually feel like Mcmc gets left alive a lot more than he should, and I know my alignment.

But I see your point.

[gkrieg13]

EFHW subbed in after night phase.  So, unknown if seanbean even submitted a target night1.

EFHW's last reads (WIFOM, but at least we know they're honest):

I haven't formed any strong scum reads. Here's my list from towny to scummy:

EFHW > Teproc, mcmc, theorel > Eevee, gkrieg, IDPTG, Robz, O > Galz, ash, DatSwan

I suspect that seanbean didn't actually submit a night action then, seeing as the sub was being looked for when the night began IIRC.

[gkrieg13]

EFHW subbed in after night phase.  So, unknown if seanbean even submitted a target night1.

EFHW's last reads (WIFOM, but at least we know they're honest):

I haven't formed any strong scum reads. Here's my list from towny to scummy:

EFHW > Teproc, mcmc, theorel > Eevee, gkrieg, IDPTG, Robz, O > Galz, ash, DatSwan

Also why are the reads WIFOM?

[theorel]

EFHW subbed in after night phase.  So, unknown if seanbean even submitted a target night1.

EFHW's last reads (WIFOM, but at least we know they're honest):

I haven't formed any strong scum reads. Here's my list from towny to scummy:

EFHW > Teproc, mcmc, theorel > Eevee, gkrieg, IDPTG, Robz, O > Galz, ash, DatSwan

Also why are the reads WIFOM?

Because, scum could have killed her because she had good reads, or because she had bad reads and i.e. mcmc could point to those reads and say: "EFHW thought I was town and was town, so you should all think I'm townier".  If done intentionally, scum can try to increase their towniness by killing people that view them as towny.  Also, scum will often not kill people with scum-reads on them in order to not be outed as strongly as scum.  But then, scum wants to kill people with scum-reads on them because they don't want to be accused.
Hence WIFOM.

[Teproc]

Well, I messed that up. I'll have to reread, I do think the Swan wagon can be informative.

PPE: In my experience, scum kills people they are afraid of, they don't kill for WIFOM.

[Teproc]

Which isn't to say "well EFHW's reads must have been great" at all. But I've never seen a scum kill on someone who had terrible reads because they had terrible reads.

[Robz888]

My guess is EFHW was killed because she was possibly a strong PR, not because her reads were either really good or really bad or something.

It's sort of interesting EFHW got killed instead of Teproc, though.

[Robz888]

Would be really great if someone had useful info.

[theorel]

My guess is EFHW was killed because she was possibly a strong PR, not because her reads were either really good or really bad or something.

It's sort of interesting EFHW got killed instead of Teproc, though.

After thinking more, I agree with this.  Given mass-claim, scum knows exactly who to target based on role.  They killed the doctor first, then the full-time Tracker.

Regarding killing with good reads, I think it probably happens more late-game.  Galz in M100 did that, right?  i.e. he killed O, even though O thought he was town? I mostly just looked over post-game.  I think scum more frequently avoids killing people with good reads out of paranoia, even though it's usually the better move, because people will seldom rethink their reads based on surviving.

[Teproc]

Would be really great if someone had useful info.

It would.

[Teproc]

My guess is EFHW was killed because she was possibly a strong PR, not because her reads were either really good or really bad or something.

It's sort of interesting EFHW got killed instead of Teproc, though.

After thinking more, I agree with this.  Given mass-claim, scum knows exactly who to target based on role.  They killed the doctor first, then the full-time Tracker.

Regarding killing with good reads, I think it probably happens more late-game.  Galz in M100 did that, right?  i.e. he killed O, even though O thought he was town? I mostly just looked over post-game.  I think scum more frequently avoids killing people with good reads out of paranoia, even though it's usually the better move, because people will seldom rethink their reads based on surviving.

It's a bit different when there's only one surviving scum, sure.

[Eevee]

I had a bad feeling when the lynch went through so easily yesterday. It seems like we are doing what scum wants us to be doing.

[theorel]

Is the because we're going along with them, or because we're just at each other's throats?  DatSwan went through easily, but Galz/O/Teproc, and Robz/mcmc were difficult?  But I know I was part of making Galz/O/Teproc difficult, and I'm town.  (although, I guess they had already died down a bit when I replaced in).  Regardless, scum probably helped us lynch DatSwan...which puts scum in:
Teproc, Robz, Eevee, me, gkrieg, Galz, IDPTG.  (Also O had threatened to hammer). 

Off-wagon we have:
mcmc, ash, EFHW, DatSwan, O.
EFHW and DatSwan are dead, O may as well have been on wagon...that leaves mcmc and ash off.

Do we think any scum stayed off-wagon?  If so, that's basically ash and mcmc.  I dunno, I'm gonna just vote: ashersky and see what happens.  Why not?