Thanks for all your responses.
Get a bunch of CQs and do the thing with Farmer’s Market and Emporium.
So nobody disagrees with the big picture analysis, good
It’s not rocket science.
Yeah, I think the strategic big picture is fairly straightforward. The exact build order, the tactics, I think that's what separates the bad, mediocre, good and expert players. (I'm closer to mediocre than expert, I think.)
The opening: Chris-is-me and faust both suggest Temple/FM, Jimmy suggested Temple/Silver. I understand Silver for economy; is the FM for economy down the line, with "it doesn't exactly hinder your chance at winning the FM split" being a nice but marginal side benefit? Is it for the +buy, such that you can pick up two $2s and also Advance more?
On 4/3, what do you guys think of Temple/Engineer? You didn't suggest it, but 4/3 is somewhat specific. If it's bad, why? Because of the missed $2 buy on turn 3, or the delay in getting a card with a gainer rather than buying it directly, or both?
None of you suggested multiple Engineers, aggressive trashing them for multiple Farmers' Markets. Is that bad, and why? Because it overterminals your deck and gets in the way of giving you good economy? (Or if you do play FM for economy, your Engineer is often dead.)
maybe later on you can get a Sacrifice on an odd $4 turn but you probably will always have better things to do.
Temples are something you can get tactically for an early VP lead, superfluous Temples can become Crowns too.
Ok, no clear not-hedged support for Sacrifice. My initial estimate was to open Temple, get one later for points, maaaaaybe two (if tactically more VP stars-are-aligned something something). I hear basically no disagreement with this plan.
I'd say the first CQ comes when you have 2 Crowns, the Engineer, and about 2 Farmers' Markets.
Let's say by then you've trashed something like 2xEstate and 3xCopper at the upper limit. So your deck is 4xCopper, 1xEstate, 2xCrown, ~2xFarmers' Market, 1xEnginer, 1xTemple, 1xCQ, maybe with a bit more junk and a stray Patrician/Settler. At that point, CQ will almost always be a Village-or-better, being a Lost City almost all the rest of the time. Also, at that point it will very likely not take more than two turns to pay for CQ (including the turn where you gain it). Get it later and all the terminal collisions are going to be very bad for you. Are those the main factors in deciding when to get it? Does one carry more weight than the other?
(neither [Patrician nor Settlers] is good here)
I think Settlers is good early
I forgot 'relatively' in that sentence; it's not
good good, it's just better than Patrician. Both are better than nothing, and that's the strongest statement you can reasonably make about how good they are.
(Settlers probably has a bit of an edge here, but it doesn't really matter)
I lean towards this conclusion, and your estimate of the difference
Why Patrician, just so you can get to Emporium points later really.
That allows my opponent to get Emporium as well. I guess this play rewards the player who is best set up to win the Emporium split, and being best set up to win the split correlates with being lucky, building better and having first player advantage? If my analysis is correct, would this give a 0.01% edge to Settlers when going second, or is it even smaller?
In general, I figure mirrored plays favor one player over another based on how the mirrored play impacts the game outcome via whatever asymmetric factors there are, and I think my list of three is exhaustive.
Once again, thanks for all your responses