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Author Topic: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 250397 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1525 on: August 10, 2019, 10:00:25 am »

Do you have any powers that would be useful to town?

Yup
What are they?

I have a (one shot) dayvig

I'm certainly open to using it in a pro-town fashion, since town is pretty clearly the winning horse here
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1526 on: August 10, 2019, 10:03:02 am »

I'm not open to have a survivor live. On the other hand, I'm certain he's not scum because that must be his real role. I must ponder.

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Why must that be his real role?
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1527 on: August 10, 2019, 10:05:44 am »

Perhaps, but between 100% non-town lynch and <50% scum lynch I would take the former. Hopefully there's a better lynch than this but I would need to apply "ADK isn't scum" to my VCA and see if Eddie is always scum.

I'm not open to have a survivor live. On the other hand, I'm certain he's not scum because that must be his real role. I must ponder.

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Why must that be his real role?

His fakeclaim is Matt Mason. He could be lying, but then he would open himself to a counterclaim.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1528 on: August 10, 2019, 10:07:00 am »

His fakeclaim is Matt Mason. He could be lying, but then he would open himself to a counterclaim.
So we know it's his real flavor. Why does that inform us about his role?
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1529 on: August 10, 2019, 10:08:15 am »

His fakeclaim is Matt Mason. He could be lying, but then he would open himself to a counterclaim.
So we know it's his real flavor. Why does that inform us about his role?

Mispoke, I guess. John Pope's more survivor than scum, however.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1530 on: August 10, 2019, 11:01:30 am »

Part of me wants ADK to use his vig kill now on his top scumread. If that person ends up being scum, we let ADK live to the end (unless scum kills him.) Otherwise, we lynch him. Unless the dead townie's flip gives us a better lynch option.

Or we could let ADK live on the condition that he let us direct his vig kill tomorrow.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1531 on: August 10, 2019, 11:04:57 am »

Part of me wants ADK to use his vig kill now on his top scumread. If that person ends up being scum, we let ADK live to the end (unless scum kills him.) Otherwise, we lynch him. Unless the dead townie's flip gives us a better lynch option.

Or we could let ADK live on the condition that he let us direct his vig kill tomorrow.

I don't like that first option at all.  I also think his utilization of the vig kill is dependent on how lynches/kills go.  I lean toward him never using it at all.  For now.  That could change tomorrow or D4
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Glooble

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1532 on: August 10, 2019, 11:10:48 am »

Fair enough. I lean towards getting the shot used early so it doesn't become a liability later.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1533 on: August 10, 2019, 11:12:24 am »

Not lynching ADK.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1534 on: August 10, 2019, 11:12:48 am »

vote: Faust
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Glooble

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1535 on: August 10, 2019, 11:19:38 am »

I believe ADK's claim. Just read John Pope's wiki entry, and the only alignments that make sense for him are town or 3rd party. Since ADK already gave up his provided fake claim I think he's almost certainly telling the truth.

(more details: looking at John Pope's wiki entry, there's no way he has a flavor number higher than 5. Ash's setup post strongly implies, though I guess it doesn't say outright, that provided fake claims would be higher than 5, so I don't think it's possible that Matt Mason and John Pope are both fake claims provided to different scum players. ADK is either telling the truth or he took a shot in the dark that John Pope isn't in the game, which seems like an insanely high risk move as scum.)

Given that, I think we should keep him alive, because he's more like town than he is like scum, at least as long as town is winning. I don't love keeping him alive with a dayvig shot that he could use on us if the tables started to turn.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1536 on: August 10, 2019, 11:23:04 am »

16 players, 1 survivor, no multiball...I bet there's 4 scum, possibly 1 traitor.

PPE: I agree with Glooble, ADK should use their vig shot before they can team up with scum. But today's too early. Also, you meant John Pope's number can't be LOWER than 5?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1537 on: August 10, 2019, 11:56:43 am »

Believable claim, that solves the third-party/no-third party situation.  Probably makes for a 4 person team, not sure why Mix is saying 4 person+Traitor.  Glooble? faust? joth?  People with experience balancing?

Galz, why is faust better vote than Eddie?

ADK, why should it still be Eddie?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1538 on: August 10, 2019, 12:03:10 pm »

16 players, 1 survivor, no multiball...I bet there's 4 scum, possibly 1 traitor.

PPE: I agree with Glooble, ADK should use their vig shot before they can team up with scum. But today's too early. Also, you meant John Pope's number can't be LOWER than 5?

Yes that’s what I meant.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1539 on: August 10, 2019, 12:15:59 pm »

Holy cow! Well, we knew ADK wasn't town, so there's that. Unless he is lying, which is what he was doing before about his name claim, but still... let's go with

vote: Eddie
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1540 on: August 10, 2019, 12:25:56 pm »

He could also be lying about the day if being 1-shot. So it’s folly to assume that him using it “gets it out of the way”.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1541 on: August 10, 2019, 12:34:45 pm »

Holy cow! Well, we knew ADK wasn't town, so there's that. Unless he is lying, which is what he was doing before about his name claim, but still... let's go with

vote: Eddie

Did we now...I presume most of the case against them was their non-bussing of EFHW, right?

Shraeye, I meant "4 scum, 1 OF THEM possibly traitor". Interesting how you also think there's 4 scum.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1542 on: August 10, 2019, 12:36:18 pm »

Holy cow! Well, we knew ADK wasn't town, so there's that. Unless he is lying, which is what he was doing before about his name claim, but still... let's go with

vote: Eddie

Did we now...I presume most of the case against them was their non-bussing of EFHW, right?

Shraeye, I meant "4 scum, 1 OF THEM possibly traitor". Interesting how you also think there's 4 scum.

There being 4 scum has been obvious since Day 2 began.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1543 on: August 10, 2019, 12:41:12 pm »

Holy cow! Well, we knew ADK wasn't town, so there's that. Unless he is lying, which is what he was doing before about his name claim, but still... let's go with

vote: Eddie

Did we now...I presume most of the case against them was their non-bussing of EFHW, right?

Shraeye, I meant "4 scum, 1 OF THEM possibly traitor". Interesting how you also think there's 4 scum.

There being 4 scum has been obvious since Day 2 began.

Highly likely but not obvious, at least for me.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1544 on: August 10, 2019, 01:02:33 pm »

He could also be lying about the day if being 1-shot. So it’s folly to assume that him using it “gets it out of the way”.

Easy enough check. We have him use it today & then have him input the same order tomorrow.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1545 on: August 10, 2019, 01:07:04 pm »

He could also be lying about the day if being 1-shot. So it’s folly to assume that him using it “gets it out of the way”.

Easy enough check. We have him use it today & then have him input the same order tomorrow.

Or.....never use it and if ADK uses it they get lynched.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1546 on: August 10, 2019, 01:13:03 pm »

If we want to do any sort of "check" I say no lynch today and have them day big tomorrow
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1547 on: August 10, 2019, 01:30:28 pm »

I'm in favor of letting a survivor live since we're, as far as we can tell, doing pretty well so far which makes the survivor want to win with town.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1548 on: August 10, 2019, 02:22:54 pm »

Believable claim, that solves the third-party/no-third party situation.  Probably makes for a 4 person team, not sure why Mix is saying 4 person+Traitor.  Glooble? faust? joth?  People with experience balancing?

Galz, why is faust better vote than Eddie?

ADK, why should it still be Eddie?

Eddie's my best bet for being EFHW's partner

My proposal for the dayvig would be to essentially use it to lynch twice in a day; get a town consensus on a lynch, I shoot them, then we have an extra lynch that day

Probably too late in the day for that now though
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1549 on: August 10, 2019, 02:35:26 pm »

Believable claim, that solves the third-party/no-third party situation.  Probably makes for a 4 person team, not sure why Mix is saying 4 person+Traitor.  Glooble? faust? joth?  People with experience balancing?

Galz, why is faust better vote than Eddie?

ADK, why should it still be Eddie?

Eddie's my best bet for being EFHW's partner

My proposal for the dayvig would be to essentially use it to lynch twice in a day; get a town consensus on a lynch, I shoot them, then we have an extra lynch that day

Probably too late in the day for that now though

I would be fine shooting Eddie & then either no-lynching if we hit scum (unless we feel confident on finding an Eddie/EFHW partner), or lynching amongst Faust/Space/Shraeye if we hit town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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