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Author Topic: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 250675 times)

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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1350 on: August 08, 2019, 05:52:27 am »

Woah Woah Woah, hold up.

MiX, please define Active PGO.

Okay, it's a bit more complicated than that, let's see if I can do this without quoting...

Once, at night, I can activate the power. If I do, the first person (and the "first" person is apparently predetermined? Probably doctors before NKs, stuff like that) that visits me dies, and flavor reveals they picked me.

MiX, scum players wouldn't target you until after your gun goes off. And it could be obvious when that happens - there'd be a second night death. The people who would target you would be townies, and they'd die.

Sure, maybe scum doesn't know if you got PGO from EFHW or not, but they're not going to risk it until very late in the game.

It's 100% pro-town to reveal PGO immediately.

-

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.

It's not 100% pro-town because if I had gotten another role from EFHW maybe scum would want me dead much earlier. But I get it.

Did you even read our debunking of your EFHW-faust-MiX case?

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.
Why'd you want to lynch the Queen second?

Right? That's weird. Almost as weird as a player having no knowledge of the flavor guessing Leader = Skitter within 90 seconds.  ;)

Do you also think I'm scum?
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1351 on: August 08, 2019, 05:53:39 am »

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.
Why'd you want to lynch the Queen second?

Right? That's weird. Almost as weird as a player having no knowledge of the flavor guessing Leader = Skitter within 90 seconds.  ;)
Well if you want me to I can claim, but I kind of don't think it's a good idea.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1352 on: August 08, 2019, 05:54:04 am »

Woah Woah Woah, hold up.

MiX, please define Active PGO.

Okay, it's a bit more complicated than that, let's see if I can do this without quoting...

Once, at night, I can activate the power. If I do, the first person (and the "first" person is apparently predetermined? Probably doctors before NKs, stuff like that) that visits me dies, and flavor reveals they picked me.

MiX, scum players wouldn't target you until after your gun goes off. And it could be obvious when that happens - there'd be a second night death. The people who would target you would be townies, and they'd die.

Sure, maybe scum doesn't know if you got PGO from EFHW or not, but they're not going to risk it until very late in the game.

It's 100% pro-town to reveal PGO immediately.

-

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.

It's not 100% pro-town because if I had gotten another role from EFHW maybe scum would want me dead much earlier. But I get it.

Did you even read our debunking of your EFHW-faust-MiX case?

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.
Why'd you want to lynch the Queen second?

Right? That's weird. Almost as weird as a player having no knowledge of the flavor guessing Leader = Skitter within 90 seconds.  ;)

Do you also think I'm scum?

So it's not auto-active? You have to choose when to use it?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1353 on: August 08, 2019, 05:54:45 am »

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.
Why'd you want to lynch the Queen second?

Right? That's weird. Almost as weird as a player having no knowledge of the flavor guessing Leader = Skitter within 90 seconds.  ;)
Well if you want me to I can claim, but I kind of don't think it's a good idea.
Well. I'll trust you on that.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1354 on: August 08, 2019, 05:55:40 am »

So it's not auto-active? You have to choose when to use it?

Auto-active? What? I would've just said PGO then.

Also I just realized faust is obv!town. RMMs are so cool when you're town.
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1355 on: August 08, 2019, 05:57:02 am »

Does your power mention harnessed children at all?
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1356 on: August 08, 2019, 05:57:28 am »

Does your power mention harnessed children at all?

No.
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1357 on: August 08, 2019, 05:58:09 am »

Vote: MiX
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pubby

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1358 on: August 08, 2019, 05:58:15 am »

Anyway, the answer still is MiX is scum, faust is scum. Lynch faust today is good and flip Monk. Lynch MiX tomorrow and flip Queen is good too.
Why'd you want to lynch the Queen second?
I counted a bunch of votes and did an analysis on all the scum teams before re-reading. You appeared in 4 teams, MiX in only 3. Mostly you can be paired with Space, but Space has given less concrete evidence to make a case against.

Besides, you seem way more popular today. Nobody wanted to join me on my earlier MiX votes :(
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1359 on: August 08, 2019, 05:58:53 am »

Queen MiX can also happen with Eddie or e BTW, but there's way less evidence. 
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1360 on: August 08, 2019, 06:04:12 am »

Vote: MiX
Yeah, so you just reiterated that you had background information to know MiX was a Skitter...

And then you vote MiX.

wut?
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1361 on: August 08, 2019, 06:05:08 am »

Vote: MiX
Yeah, so you just reiterated that you had background information to know MiX was a Skitter...

And then you vote MiX.

wut?
I don't know that MiX is a Skitter, and I never said that I did.
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pubby

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1362 on: August 08, 2019, 06:05:55 am »

You made the connection to his claim almost immediately and I want to know why. I think you should claim what you know about Rebel Skitter Leaders. You do not have to claim anything else.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1363 on: August 08, 2019, 06:06:24 am »

Oooooooooh I get it, I didn't attempt to disprove Galz's theory about scum needing children to do powers! faust's right, I should've done that.

Well, there you go, I got a scum power that doesn't need children to be used, so I don't think that theory's accurate. The children are probably for something else.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1364 on: August 08, 2019, 06:07:21 am »

You made the connection to his claim almost immediately and I want to know why. I think you should claim what you know about Rebel Skitter Leaders. You do not have to claim anything else.

That connection happened because he's town, do you need more?
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1365 on: August 08, 2019, 06:07:51 am »

You made the connection to his claim almost immediately and I want to know why. I think you should claim what you know about Rebel Skitter Leaders. You do not have to claim anything else.
Fine. I have information available to me that strongly implies that there is at least one town-aligned Skitter.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1366 on: August 08, 2019, 06:15:58 am »

And now to take a break. Where does that leave us though?

Town:
Galzria
Joth
MiX
Swan
WCD
Awaclus
Pubby

Left to go over:
Eddie
Shraeye
PPS
Glooble
Space
faust
ADK
e

Alright, gonna finish up the bottom 8 here. These may not go in any particular order, as the field is a little bit more muddled down here than the top.

Let's start with PPS:
- PPS is very quick to claim his Flavor Number of 2. If true, he's town. But it could easily be a fake-claim. More
- Given the lack of NK's, and the expectation *at this point* that we're dealing with a single scum faction, said faction must be of reasonable size and power. With that noted, PPS's post at #196 reads townie. The way it's worded and the assumptions it makes is that multiple factions probably exist, instead of pondering in a more open ended way whether or not they exist. That is to say, I feel like scum would be more likely to wonder aloud about the possible existence of third party factions, rather than state a fixed belief in their existence.
- After that... well, honestly I town read PPS yesterday. And reading back, I like a lot of his posts. He's engaged, and seems to be logically thinking through all of his posts - something I'm not exactly used to from scum!PPS (especially in RMM's). But here's the thing... from where I stand right now, I disagree strongly with all of his conclusions that he was drawing yesterday. Like, all of his posts follow a very linear narrative. His thinking is easy to see, easy to follow. His back-and-forth with MiX definitely read townie at the time, but seems more like he was concerned about lynching 3rd party looking back. It just... all feels off now.
- And then this kinda brings me to where I'm feeling right now: As we'll see when I talk about faust, faust was (is) really scummy. His actions scream scummate of EFHW, and if the glove fits... but... it's almost too neat, too good. It all fits too well. And then... as we were approaching deadline yesterday, PPS makes his final two posts of Day 1: #812, wherein he lays out a short but compelling case on faust, moving his vote from EFHW to faust (where it remained), and #850, where he is the first person to bring to the game's attention that EFHW was VLA - something that would normally have been compelling enough to derail EFHW's lynch had it not been so close to deadline.

So.... yeah. Definitely not a good feeling surrounding PPS reading back. That said, he looks far worse if faust ends up being town, and significantly better if faust ends up being scum.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1367 on: August 08, 2019, 06:16:07 am »

Let's do Glooble next:
- This is harder to do than the players I feel confident are town.
- I was definitely getting scum vibes from Glooble yesterday. Upon rereading however, he's appeared more townie than I recall. Kinda the opposite of PPS.
- The unforced counter-claim... Well, if he's scum and genuinely thought he caught MiX in a lie, this really wouldn't pan out for him because even if we lynched MiX… after MiX flipped town Glooble would not look good. The only scenario where this really works for scum!Glooble is if he honestly thought that MiX would be caught in a lie and flip 3rd party, thus "clearing" him. Alternatively, and possibly more likely, would be 3rd-party-Glooble thinking he caught Mafia!MiX in a lie here... but again, man, if he's wrong and MiX were lynched and flipped town... Glooble would be hosed.
- I didn't like Glooble attempting to derail the EFHW lynch, especially as he then focused on me. That said... Eh, his case wasn't correct, but it's definitely one I could see coming from a townie that doesn't know the alignment of the player he's accusing.
- Posts #720 & #725 are definitely scummy though. They seem to let on that he knows more about the Harnessed Children than other people.
- Glooble instantly points out that faust is wrong (752) in his assessment of the early EFHW wagon and how that means she must be town - however unlike PPS he doesn't use this fact to try and spin a late wagon against faust.
- Post at 801 makes it pretty blatantly clear that Glooble is town imo. Or rather, that he's not partners with EFHW.
- Glooble's vote on EFHW is vote 7 of 9 to lynch. This is a dicey spot to be, and is around where I would start to believe scum were thinking about getting onto the scum lynch. In particular, Glooble & Space fall into this category. I'm not saying that it IS scummy, but neither is it townie. These are the two players who I don't feel get town points for being part of the lynch.

Overall... I don't believe that Glooble can be or is scum with EFHW. There is nothing in what I've reread however that would preclude him from being 3rd party, but I don't really have a good idea of what 3rd party would exist within the game at this point and time.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1368 on: August 08, 2019, 06:16:14 am »

Hell, let's just knock faust out of the way:
- faust's asking of ADK to provide a flavor name not in the show in post #100 did absolutely nothing to help town, but definitely could've helped scum. All players with a number rating of 6 or above were to be provided fake claims, regardless of alignment. So by ADK claiming a 6, you could be damn certain he had a fake flavor name provided. Knowing a character isn't in the game helps town none. Knowing a character isn't in the game could be extremely valuable to scum.
- This is made even more ironic by #110, wherein faust is arguing with ADK about claiming his own number, due to ADK not demonstrating why such information should be as valuable to town as it would be to scum.
- In #345 faust picks on MiX for voting EFHW because it's a useless vote (being the only vote on EFHW at the time) - note that he doesn't pick on me, e, joth, ADK or Glooble - all of whom also have single votes out on players.
- In post #467, faust votes for his 6th unique player, all 6 of which came with no cases (some he put a little something out afterward) attached. It's his 57th game post man... it's like he's got some sort of vote quota to make here. This wouldn't actually be that scummy if he was bothering to support his votes - but he doesn't. So it really just looks like he's trying to create wagons and suspicion. And as he's not backing up his votes with reasons, it all comes off feeling artificially targeted.
- Oh look, #544, another unique vote on Gkrieg/Eddie.

***** All of the above is scummy behaviour. But it's not a case, and it's not any more scummy than some of the things said/done by other players. Certainly some of it IS a bias of me reading him as scummy, so seeing things as scummy. But as I've just reread both PPS and Glooble and more or less flipped my reads on them from Day 1, bias isn't everything. Below is where faust's actions really begin to have a scum narrative to them. *****

People who voted MiX or expressed intent to hammer over the course of the game.

Awaclus (130), pubby (132), faust (133), Galzria (218), ADK (248), Didds (249), Glooble (250), pubby (269), pps (275), Space (292), jotheonah (371), Awaclus (375), Glooble (384), Glazria (385), DatSwan (469), pps (486), ADK (502), shraeye (526), joth (546)

People who defended MiX or questioned votes on him:

Didds (134), faust (somewhere in there, sorry forgot to add), jotheonah (254), jotheonah (311), e (389)

Notable:
- the only player to consistently defend MiX is e.
- the only players who have not gone on the record regarding MiX are gkrieg and EFHW.

I think that it is very likely that there is scum in this group of 3. Probably even more than one.

- This is post #563, and in #564 faust votes for EFHW.This was on July 28th, and 8:53am. The bolding is mine, and I'll come back to that.

Need more EFHW voters. If you vote before L-4 you'll get a personal thank-you note via PM once the game is concluded.

- This post is #601, and was on July 28th at 11:16am. No other players had yet voted for EFHW.
- In post #746, made on July 30th at 7:47am, faust moves his vote to Joth and encourages others to bail on the EFHW wagon as it has "sat around for quite a while and there was no effort whatsoever to start an alternative. This indicates that scum is overall pretty happy with the EFHW wagon."
- The wagon went from faust being the only vote on it and trying to bribe others to join to L-2 (almost L-1, but ADK moved his vote) to faust bailing and encouraging others to do so because it had been "quite a while" in 44 hours.
- Wagons/Cases/Votes that were made not on EFHW during that time that could very easily be constituded as the opposite of "no effort whatsoever to start an althernative [wagon]": {EFHW->Galzria|621}, {Joth->PPS|635}, {pubby->WCD|636}, {e->Gkrieg/Eddie|642}, {Glooble->pubby|652}, {faust->joth|683}, {Glooble->Me|697}, {Shraeye->WCD|710}, {Joth->PPS|713}, {pubby->MiX|719}, {ADK->Joth|733}.
- In a span of 145 posts, made over a 44 hour span, there were 11 attempts made to build a case/wagon on a different player than EFHW. That makes:
As should others, by the way. We've had this wagon sit around for quite a while and there was no effort whatsoever to start an alternative. This indicates that scum is overall pretty happy with the EFHW wagon.

about the most craptastic excuse ever to bail on a wagon.

But back to the bolded from above:

"the only players who have not gone on the record regarding MiX are gkrieg and EFHW."

Let's look at that, shall we? That was post #563, so we'll only concern ourselves with posts prior to this.

#350:
MiX: Shraeye didn't take a position on MiX. I have never had a scumread on MiX in any game, except for the one where he was SK. I don't have one now. Of course there is likely to be scum on the wagon, but I don't have any bias about when they would have joined. They could have started it, since MiX is a popular target. Or they could have jumped on hoping it would go to quicklynch. That's a more rookie move, so I'd be looking at pubby there.

#477
also general note based on read back - everyone is aware we are plurality lynch until 9 players remain yes?
I did not realize that. I feel like that really helps scum here. They don't have to get a full wagon to lynch MiX, and I think MiX is town.

#493
also general note based on read back - everyone is aware we are plurality lynch until 9 players remain yes?
I did not realize that. I feel like that really helps scum here. They don't have to get a full wagon to lynch MiX, and I think MiX is town.
Care to elaborate on sir Mix’s towniness?
It's just how he talks. I think it would be hard to fake as scum.

I think it's pretty conclusive where EFHW stood on MiX.

*** Continuing on through the end of the day ***

- Faust's "don't want to be on scum" case is on Joth - easily one of the more obviously town players from Day 1. Trying to pull from a scum wagon to a town wagon is scummy.
- In #683 faust tried to get others to start a counter wagon on joth for him, because he didn't want to look bad for leaving EFHW. When that didn't pan out, and when EFHW's votes continued to climb, he finally bailed in #746. The was on July 30th, 22 hours prior to deadline. Between then and deadline, he actively pushed for joth to be lynched instead of EFHW in #751, #756, #762, #797, #828 and at #879 stated a refusal to move his vote.

***

The case here is quite simple:

faust saw an opportunity to place a vote on a partner that didn't have anything going. A safe vote that could be referenced later as to why they cannot be partners. So he made a weak case and threw his vote on EFHW. Not wanting to break meta, faust encouraged others to join - not really thinking it would go anywhere on such a weak case. Again, all pretty safe moves. When things began to pick up steam, faust began freaking out a little bit and started encouraging cases on other people (joth). Surely somebody would notice how bad his case on EFHW was? But alas, the EFHW wagon continued to build and faust was forced to bail. As deadline was closing in, he became more and more desperate to get the wagon derailed and pushed harder and harder for people to change their votes. Finally, faced with the option of helping make the EFHW lynch happen, or hoping it fell through and bought them a night, faust simply refused to vote for EFHW.
 
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1369 on: August 08, 2019, 06:16:20 am »

Eddie should be up next, I think... I'm going to focus more on him than Gkrieg, although there isn't a lot to go on in either case:
- Eddie comes in with a quick vote on e, but suggests he would like to lynch ADK more. He then puts out a short would/wouldn't lynch bucket. In the would lynch is Joth/EFHW. But then he quickly pivots back off of that to ADK again. [759, 765, 767]
- In #835 he says that he would prefer an EFHW lynch to a Joth lynch, but would still like to see an ADK lynch more. He hasn't actually given any reasons for wanting ADK lynched...
- In his very next post, #856, coming 5 1/2 hours to deadline, Eddie votes for me for "balance" - Not only is this vote out of the blue (he hasn't even mentioned me by name prior to this), but the reasoning is literally to "create an equally viable wagon to EFHW at this time."
- In #864 Eddie talks about not feeling great about voting Joth, but likes that faust/MiX are there. He doesn't mention EFHW in this post, much less that he had previously stated that he prefered an EFHW lynch to a Joth lynch.
- In #877 he says that he'll vote "any of the three", by which I believe he means me/joth/EFHW.
- In #887 Eddie moves his vote from me to Joth, again completely ignoring EFHW or the fact that he had previously stated he was more willing to lynch her than joth - also ignoring the fact that it was now just 40 minutes to deadline and his vote only gave joth four votes, whereas it would've given EFHW six.
- In Day 2 Eddie has said that he was on and would've hammered if e had not done so - but there is literally no verifiable proof of this and at the end of the day the only facts remain that he did not vote for EFHW, despite saying that he would previously.

*****

There is another aspect to this which I want to bring up. As I mentioned previously, I believe that scum had Day Chat yesterday. I believe they were actively tracking who was online and who could/would vote for EFHW at the end of the day. I believe that Eddie's decision to stay off the wagon was based upon the fact that they did not believe that town had the votes to get the lynch through. I'll go into more detail in the next post.

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1370 on: August 08, 2019, 06:16:27 am »

As this one needs to follow Eddie, this will be my read on Space.

- Alright... so... yeah. I don't really have anything concrete here. I never really do with Space. They've felt like they've been buddying faust for much of Day 1, and they've been generally very... I don't know. Under the radar isn't quite right, but they're cases just haven't really felt like there's anything to them. And I know Space often struggles with cases outside of the vote-analysis realm,,, but the cases that they've made have just felt like they're trying not to rock the boat. They're generally safe cases.

- So here's what stands out to me. I don't believe it's a stretch, however it is based on a pretty big assumption, something that isn't actually (and probably won't ever be) known: I believe scum had Day Chat yesterday, and I think that this post:

Given the combination of people who're active in here just now, and the layout of the wagons, I think EFHW is the only lynch that has a chance of going through. That's because while the Joth set is growing, we'd need a lot of not-currently-here people to push it over the line.

vote: EFHW with apologies for jumping on the hard-VLA wagon. I don't have time to sit and track the thread up to deadline, but I'll try to check back and move if it really pushes something through.

I think this is the current state, unless there are PPE votes:
Galzria (3): EFHW, Glooble
EFHW (5): Galzria, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, Awaclus, jotheonah, SpaceAnemone
jotheonah (4): A Drowned Kernel, faust, MiX, Uncleeurope
faust (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....
MiX (1): Shraeye
WestCoastDidds (1): pubby

is a demonstration of that. The bolded part is reasonable, but I think what it really says is "Based on who's logged in, who's said they won't vote for EFHW, and who my partners are, I don't believe the EFHW lynch will go through and I would rather be on the wagon than off".

Let's look at what was happening then in more detail. Space's vote actually put EFHW at 6, not 5 as listed in the count above. I believe that was just an accident of updating the numbers. EFHW needed 3 more votes to lynch, and it was 26 minutes to deadline. Active players around that time included {MiX, Glooble, Eddie, faust, swan}, although Swan and faust had been off for an hour by that time. Of that group, swan was already on the wagon and couldn't vote again. Faust had stated categorically that he wasn't going to be a part of an EFHW lynch. That meant that in order for the lynch to happen, the only other 3 active players would've needed to vote EFHW. Glooble did so. Then MiX did so. Eddie was nowhere to be seen.

I think Space's vote was by far the most calculated vote to go onto the wagon, and it's even almost hinted at within their post. I think "somebody else logging on and hammering" was a "worst case" scenario for scum there, but they were hopeful the deadline would slip by and EFHW would survive. And even in the worse case, at least Space would still have been on the wagon.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1371 on: August 08, 2019, 06:16:33 am »

That still leaves me with ADK, e, and Shraeye to do. It's 3:00am though and I'm tired, so I'll just put this out there instead:

ADK said something Day 1 that, due to my flavor, leads me to think that he very well could be town.
e's hammer - I just don't think scum does that. Yeah, he said he would be back, but things come up. He's at work. He last logged in 2 1/2 hours prior to deadline. I mean, it's not unheard of that scum does what he did... but I think 9 times out of 10 it's town.
Shraeye - the scummiest of the remaining three.

At the end of the day, everything said and done...

vote: Eddie

is my preferred lynch today. Space would be second. Faust would be third, with an eye towards Shraeye. The thing about faust is, while there's definitely a good, strong case there - like I said, it's all too neat... and when I look at the interactions around him, I see far more things that read as scum latching onto faust for all the right reasons... that ultimately end up being on town.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1372 on: August 08, 2019, 06:52:04 am »

Okay, time to do this I guess.

- In post #746, made on July 30th at 7:47am, faust moves his vote to Joth and encourages others to bail on the EFHW wagon as it has "sat around for quite a while and there was no effort whatsoever to start an alternative. This indicates that scum is overall pretty happy with the EFHW wagon."
- The wagon went from faust being the only vote on it and trying to bribe others to join to L-2 (almost L-1, but ADK moved his vote) to faust bailing and encouraging others to do so because it had been "quite a while" in 44 hours.
Yes, it was 44 hours, and at the time of my jumping off it was 22 hours to deadline. Two thirds of the time we had left classifies as quite a while for me.

- Wagons/Cases/Votes that were made not on EFHW during that time that could very easily be constituded as the opposite of "no effort whatsoever to start an althernative [wagon]": {EFHW->Galzria|621}, {Joth->PPS|635}, {pubby->WCD|636}, {e->Gkrieg/Eddie|642}, {Glooble->pubby|652}, {faust->joth|683}, {Glooble->Me|697}, {Shraeye->WCD|710}, {Joth->PPS|713}, {pubby->MiX|719}, {ADK->Joth|733}.
Let me check those out. EFHW trying something doesn't count, because doh, obviously she want to lynch someone other than herself. 635 - unsubstantiated vote. 636 - unsubstantiated vote. 642 - ok, fair. 652 - maybe? But I thought (and think) that Glooble is town. 683 - well that's me, I know I'm town, so. 997 - Glooble again, see before. 710 - unsubstantiated. 713 - fine. 719 - I mean that reasoning won't convince anyone. 733 - ok.

So some of those votes tried to moves us elsewhere. But all who did (except from Glooble) were single votes on people with no other votes on them, not the best work if you're trying to build a wagon.

"the only players who have not gone on the record regarding MiX are gkrieg and EFHW."

Let's look at that, shall we? That was post #563, so we'll only concern ourselves with posts prior to this.

[...]
I think it's pretty conclusive where EFHW stood on MiX.
Are you basing a scumread on that? I don't know how that makes sense. As EFHW's partner, wouldn't I be aware of her reads, so me not knowing them is a sign of town? Or are you implying I purposely lied about EFHW's reads? What would be the point of such an obvious lie?

- Faust's "don't want to be on scum" case is on Joth - easily one of the more obviously town players from Day 1. Trying to pull from a scum wagon to a town wagon is scummy.
- In #683 faust tried to get others to start a counter wagon on joth for him, because he didn't want to look bad for leaving EFHW. When that didn't pan out, and when EFHW's votes continued to climb, he finally bailed in #746. The was on July 30th, 22 hours prior to deadline. Between then and deadline, he actively pushed for joth to be lynched instead of EFHW in #751, #756, #762, #797, #828 and at #879 stated a refusal to move his vote.
I disagree with your read on joth and in general would advise against basing reads on other reads when you have no solid information. The solid information we do have is that I refused to vote for you, confirmed town, when that was presented as the main alternative to EFHW. Instead I split the anti-EFHW votes into two wagons, which resulted in neither of them succeeding.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1373 on: August 08, 2019, 07:36:35 am »

Galz, do you think I am partners with Faust?

If not, who in your scum list am I partners with?

I will lynch them.

For the most part your scum list is mine, so I’m ready.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1374 on: August 08, 2019, 07:57:09 am »

If scum have a “shot pool”- the harnessed kids- does that make any sense with MiX’s claim to have inherited a power from EFHW?

I feel like MiX’s claim is a little hard to believe. Getting a 1-shot power from everyone who dies, regardless of alignment? But if scum have a shared pool of powers, wouldn’t they know which one MiX inherited, since they wouldn’t have access to it anymore?

Also, regarding Faust’s claim that he released a harnessed child- I don’t think the lack of a counterclaim tells us anything. The child could have been released as a consequence of EFHWs death. The thing is I’m not sure I buy the existence of a town power that strips scum of one of their shots, unless it has some kind of drawback it just seems like poor game design. Why not just give scum fewer shots? Why give town a power that’s always beneficial to use and doesn’t even need to be targeted to work?

Obviously I don’t know how Faust’s power works, and maybe to get rid of a scum shot he had to give up some other power. But I just don’t think this is a situation where “he claimed it and no one countered” proves anything.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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