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[faust]

Hey, Faust, any other opinions other than my evilness you care to present? It makes it hard to agree with everything you say if you just vote me all the time.

I don't really want to give scum a "here's where you should vote if you want to me to follow you" right now. I think your vote on PPS is... not great.

[shraeye]

Bump, pubby

I already responded I think?

So my reaction feeling funny means my read is wrong?  "Retrospectively off" sounds like something you'd say on D4 once you have a lot of flips to analyze.

[Galzria]

Really? Suppose scum!me's plan was to start a wagon on a partner and then derail it once the deadline comes around... why on earth would I choose the partner that has announced VLA leading up to the deadline? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Because literally nobody, not even I (who defended and pushed the action anyway), WANTS to lynch a VLA player. What even is this defense?

[shraeye]

Hey, Faust, any other opinions other than my evilness you care to present? It makes it hard to agree with everything you say if you just vote me all the time.

I don't really want to give scum a "here's where you should vote if you want to me to follow you" right now. I think your vote on PPS is... not great.

Not great because you disagree with him about PPS? Or is it specifically about the way/time/beingness of his vote?

[Uncleeurope]

Well, good thing I stopped that, then.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: ADK

[Uncleeurope]

People seem to really like the bucket of me/Faust/ADK

I like it too, with a minor exception... I will vote for either of the other two, though. As is clear, so am I bussing a partner? Or am I the only baddie in the trio?

The other two have planted their vote on me and won’t move it.

Which is extremely scummy.

[faust]

Really? Suppose scum!me's plan was to start a wagon on a partner and then derail it once the deadline comes around... why on earth would I choose the partner that has announced VLA leading up to the deadline? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Because literally nobody, not even I (who defended and pushed the action anyway), WANTS to lynch a VLA player. What even is this defense?

Maybe you are not clear about the timetable.

This is when EFHW announces VLA:

I'm going to be v/la Sunday through Sunday. My internet access will be very intermittent. Hopefully I'll be able to check in every couple days or so.

This is when I vote for EFHW, the very Day her VLA starts:

Vote: EFHW

The EFHW wagon gets some support, and then EFHW has to leave:

This is awkward, but my limited access is starting in like half an hour. I feel like faust's groupings of people is super arbitrary and everything he is saying about me applies to him just as well.

vote:Galzria

So, if my plan was to get an EFHW wagon and then derail it, it is necessary that I convince people it is a good idea to lynch a VLA player - otherwise there won't be a wagon to begin with. But if I do that, and then want to get some movement somewhere else, then it would be super hurtful if EFHW isn't around to defend herself. This is just terrible planning, if I ever wanted to do something like that I would make sure to pick a player who can react.

Second, what even is the benefit of this whole thing, if you assume that I am scum with EFHW? Best case: EFHW gets a wagon, it gets derailed by me, a townie is lynched. What is the result? EFHW looks scummy for having avoided the lynch in favor of a townie, and I look scummy for having enabled a town lynch. I don't get why people think scum!me would do that... there's nothing to gain.

[faust]

The other two have planted their vote on me and won’t move it.

Which is extremely scummy.

Why is that extremely scummy?

[faust]

Hey, Faust, any other opinions other than my evilness you care to present? It makes it hard to agree with everything you say if you just vote me all the time.

I don't really want to give scum a "here's where you should vote if you want to me to follow you" right now. I think your vote on PPS is... not great.

Not great because you disagree with him about PPS? Or is it specifically about the way/time/beingness of his vote?

I don't particularly think PPS is scum, and the vote has no substance to it and goes against what I perceive is Eddie's top scumread, so both.

[Galzria]

Really? Suppose scum!me's plan was to start a wagon on a partner and then derail it once the deadline comes around... why on earth would I choose the partner that has announced VLA leading up to the deadline? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Because literally nobody, not even I (who defended and pushed the action anyway), WANTS to lynch a VLA player. What even is this defense?

Maybe you are not clear about the timetable.

This is when EFHW announces VLA:

I'm going to be v/la Sunday through Sunday. My internet access will be very intermittent. Hopefully I'll be able to check in every couple days or so.

This is when I vote for EFHW, the very Day her VLA starts:

Vote: EFHW

The EFHW wagon gets some support, and then EFHW has to leave:

This is awkward, but my limited access is starting in like half an hour. I feel like faust's groupings of people is super arbitrary and everything he is saying about me applies to him just as well.

vote:Galzria

So, if my plan was to get an EFHW wagon and then derail it, it is necessary that I convince people it is a good idea to lynch a VLA player - otherwise there won't be a wagon to begin with. But if I do that, and then want to get some movement somewhere else, then it would be super hurtful if EFHW isn't around to defend herself. This is just terrible planning, if I ever wanted to do something like that I would make sure to pick a player who can react.

Second, what even is the benefit of this whole thing, if you assume that I am scum with EFHW? Best case: EFHW gets a wagon, it gets derailed by me, a townie is lynched. What is the result? EFHW looks scummy for having avoided the lynch in favor of a townie, and I look scummy for having enabled a town lynch. I don't get why people think scum!me would do that... there's nothing to gain.

EFHW being VLA is a far better defense for her than anything she could offer by being here. It almost worked to push a no-lynch through as you yourself (along with a number of other people) stated a preference for No-Lynch over lynching a VLA player.

And I can count on one hand the number of times where a "got away" Day 1 lynch is the default lynch of Day 2 - so claiming that it would all lead to your downfall and ruin is nothing more than ATE.

[faust]

EFHW being VLA is a far better defense for her than anything she could offer by being here. It almost worked to push a no-lynch through as you yourself (along with a number of other people) stated a preference for No-Lynch over lynching a VLA player.

I did not state a preference for no lynch over lynching a VLA player. I stated a preference for no lynch over lynching EFHW specifically. It had nothing to do with her VLA-ness. And all this is bullshit. People were already voting for her, her being VLA didn't prevent that. You're not even trying to think about what I'm saying, just riding out your bias.

And I can count on one hand the number of times where a "got away" Day 1 lynch is the default lynch of Day 2 - so claiming that it would all lead to your downfall and ruin is nothing more than ATE.

Still, what is the benefit?

[Galzria]

Town #1: Joth
- First and foremost, he's been playing crazy hard into his town meta all game. Scum!Joth is much more subtle than this, and I've been saying it since D1.

I know you have, and I have townread joth for the exact same reason in M120. He was scum. So I don't accept that as a town tell.

You don't have to accept it. That's up to you. Doesn't change the fact that he's town.

If Joth doesn't come back to the EFHW wagon, that wagon doesn't happen.

I really don't like this line of reasoning. First of all, who knows? Eddie said he was around to vote, so one vote less wouldn't have killed the wagon. Second, even if it were true, scum had no way of knowing it at the time. It could just as easily be a decision of being off-wagon for a scum lynch vs being on wagon. Voting EFHW is the minimax strategy for scum there.

What a player says and what a player does are two separate things. It's awfully easy to say "Oh yeah, I was there and would've hammered" after the fact. There was absolutely no guarantee, and in fact a very high likelihood, that EFHW's lynch wasn't going through given the number of people online and who had stated they would take a no-lynch over an EFHW lynch (see: yourself).

Awaclus:
- There isn't a whole lot to be said here. Awaclus could've just as easily stayed off of the EFHW wagon as gotten on, and nobody would've bothered to criticize him for it, because it's Awaclus.

Like... what? Awaclus isn't immune to wagon analysis, and suggesting otherwise is ridiculous. Of course he would have looked scummy if he was off the scum lynch.

Meh, I disagree. Well, at least that he would look any more scummy than anybody else that wasn't on the lynch.

[Galzria]

EFHW being VLA is a far better defense for her than anything she could offer by being here. It almost worked to push a no-lynch through as you yourself (along with a number of other people) stated a preference for No-Lynch over lynching a VLA player.

I did not state a preference for no lynch over lynching a VLA player. I stated a preference for no lynch over lynching EFHW specifically. It had nothing to do with her VLA-ness. And all this is bullshit. People were already voting for her, her being VLA didn't prevent that. You're not even trying to think about what I'm saying, just riding out your bias.

And I can count on one hand the number of times where a "got away" Day 1 lynch is the default lynch of Day 2 - so claiming that it would all lead to your downfall and ruin is nothing more than ATE.

Still, what is the benefit?

Bias has nothing to do with it. You tried harder than literally any other player to derail a scum lynch. End of story. Doesn't make you scum, it's simply a fact. The benefit however, if you're scum, is exactly the argument that you tried to make initially to derail EFHW's wagon:

"Her wagon was too easy, and nobody made any effort to derail it, ergo EFHW is town"

The whole point, if you're EFHW's partner, in building a wagon to then derail it, is to make everybody feel like EFHW must be town, something you attempted to do seamlessly.

[faust]

"Her wagon was too easy, and nobody made any effort to derail it, ergo EFHW is town"

The whole point, if you're EFHW's partner, in building a wagon to then derail it, is to make everybody feel like EFHW must be town, something you attempted to do seamlessly.

But nobody was suspecting EFHW in the first place.

[Galzria]

"Her wagon was too easy, and nobody made any effort to derail it, ergo EFHW is town"

The whole point, if you're EFHW's partner, in building a wagon to then derail it, is to make everybody feel like EFHW must be town, something you attempted to do seamlessly.

But nobody was suspecting EFHW in the first place.

I was, although I hadn't posted about it. Fair, you couldn't know that however.

Either way, that's not really the point. I mean, hell, as a scum partner, isn't the best of times to start some bussing is when there isn't much suspicion already? That's the least likely to lead anywhere dangerous as a team, and can be pointed back to in the future if needed.

[pubby]

Here's my case: EFHW-faust-MiX scum team, with faust as the Monk and MiX as the Espheni Queen. I'm going to assume the Espheni Queen is super important and could lose scum the game if she dies. For that reason, scum will try hard to protect her, or rather, EFHW and faust will try hard to protect MiX.

Both faust's and EFHW's early behavior was to prevent a MiX lynch. faust started the EFHW wagon to pull votes off of MiX, thinking there was no chance EFHW would actually die. When he realized the wagon was working, he panicked.

MiX on the other hand has played along with both of them, but in particular faust, by following his every command. It's worth looking at post-by-post.

Shall we begin? I'll underline key points.

* MiX wagon starts up.

* Neither faust nor EFHW supports the MiX wagon. EFHW is one of the few people defending MiX. faust has a singular vote on MiX very early, which he promptly changes and starts defending MiX too.

A MiX wagon? How unoriginal.

* His attitude is further reflected when MiX reaches L-1, where faust gives this comment:

What is this BS?

I'd feel the same way if my scum team lost the game d1 too.

* MiX had poked faust a few days prior with a weak scum-read, but gets defensive when asked about it:

Are you serious? No I don't put random pressure on faust as scum, it's absolutely pointless! I sheep, buddy and sheep him again! Think about this wagon for a second before you resume it, please.

(Checks votes) 5 votes? You guys never fail me. Great streak I have, getting a sizeable wagon every D1, even when I don't want to.

PPE 2: What faust said.

I find this post suspicious.

* Once the MiX wagon picks up steam EFHW frantically asks for a vote count. Because remember: if the Queen dies, scum is fucked.

vote count please!

EFHW had no intention of lynching MiX d1 and never voted for him once. She defended him. So why did she, a member of scum, ask for a vote count? It sounds like she was concerned about her Queen.

* As MiX picks up more and more votes, faust realizes things are going south and that his Queen is on the verge of getting lynched. He asks his partner for help starting a new wagon so that MiX can be saved:

Hey EFHW, you seem to be scumreading Galzria, but you're not voting. Want to make a wagon?

This comment is key - it's a partner tell between the two. But EFHW denies him because it would make the two of them look bad.

* MiX tries to jump on EFHW just how he tried to jump on faust - two people that are defending him. He's nervous and trying to make himself look better by voting for his partners.

But EFHW needs some heat.

Vote: EFHW.

*  faust responds telling him not to:

Look at the vote count. This is not going anywhere unless you give some reason for why we should vote EFHW. And if you're not prepared to do that, please put your vote somewhere more useful.

* MiX listens to buddy faust and immediately unvotes 2 minutes later. Remember when MiX was suspicious of faust only a few pages earlier? Why is he doing what faust says?

Unvote

* Faust replies a minute later:

It's not like unvoting is going to improve the situation.

Why does faust think the game is in a bad situation? What does he care?

* Eventually, MiX claims:

Alright. Let's go...

Claim: I am the best role in the game. I have a plan that will inevitably IC me. I am a "Leader". We need to lynch today. My flip will tell you everything you need to know about my role except this: I do it 2 or 3 times. Everything else is pointless if I die now.

* Only 2 minutes later, coach faust replies fast with this comment:

Can you specify whether you are a Skitter?

How did he realize "Leader" = "Skitter" so quickly?? Remember: faust claimed he was not familiar with the flavor. Did he really notice MiX's post, jump on the wiki, search, think about what to ask, and then ask it in 108 seconds? Or did he already know MiX's fake claim?? What's more likely here?

BTW, note that Googling "Falling Skies Leader" does NOT return results for Skitters.

* Here's the post where faust says he doesn't know the flavor:

I don't know the flavor at all.

* Anyway, the next two posts are funny:

I am. What gave it away, the Leader part?

I'd rather not say.

Keep in mind that Glooble - an actual skitter leader - has no QT knowledge of other Skitters. So why would faust? It's laughable. faust should have just said, yeah man, I got it from the "leader" part.

* faust starts a wagon on EFHW to pull votes off MiX and distance himself from her:

Vote: EFHW

Note that e was being wagoned for the very same reason, with EFHW voting for him. If faust was town and believed in his own argument, he'd hop on the e wagon too. Instead, he started a wagon on his partner to distance himself from her.

* faust's argument against EFHW gets questioned because he didn't vote for MiX either. He reminds everyone he voted for MiX too... once!

I did vote for MiX early, which is why I didn't put myself in that group.

* Weirdest post of the whole thread happens, with faust hastily trying to draw votes off MiX:

Need more EFHW voters. If you vote before L-4 you'll get a personal thank-you note via PM once the game is concluded.

* MiX listens to coach faust immediately, not understanding the plan:

Okay? I'll hold you to this promise.

Vote: EFHW

* Soon the EFHW wagon picks up steam. faust panics and tries to abort:

Anyone want to start a wagon on joth? I can't right now, but seriously the guy is scummy and needs some heat. Let's make today EFHW vs joth. That would make me happy.

* faust becomes increasingly panicked and has several posts trying to convince others to abandon ship. But when he changes his vote, there's no case behind it. He doesn't talk about joth. It's just an empty post.

Vote: joth

* MiX is convinced by coach faust to join him on a joth wagon:

So is everyone derailing every wagon at the same time? This makes me want to lynch EFHW even more!

Rereading is hard, but I'll be here around deadline, so maybe I can move somewhere useful?

joth.

Reeeeeeally? Fiiiiiiine.

Vote: joth, but it's mostly because everyone's derailing the EFHW wagon.

* But soon MiX puts his vote back on EFHW:

Great wagons all around. Realistical wagons: Galzria/EFHW/joth. Wagons I'm willing to support: EFHW/joth. Vote untill I wake up:

Vote: EFHW

I do understand faust's theory, but what can scum do about EFHW? Maybe they thought it would die down or something, any movement is scummy when she flips scum.

Yes, any movement off EFHW appears scummy when she flips scum. That's what he was thinking when he threw EFHW back under the bus. But how did he know EFHW was going to flip scum?

Like WHAT?? Why did he say EFHW was going to flip scum?? Read his post. He said EFHW will flip scum.

* The next morning he wakes up to make this post:

Hello, I'm here. I see that joth has stopped being a wagon and Galz is obviously town? Yeah I want EFHW lynched today.

Seriously, Galz is towny enough to not be the D1 lynch, get that out of your heads people. Whereas EFHW hasn't done anything spectacular.

* Coach faust replies to him:

I am not a big fan of the Galz wagon either, but I would prefer it over EFHW.

* He listens to coach faust yet again despite himself admitting Galz is town:

Well, we're lynching town. Thus is D1.

Vote: Galz, EFHW's not really diverging from her town meta.

This post makes no sense. He said earlier EFHW would flip scum, but now he's voting for someone he thinks is town?

* Ultimately MiX changes his vote back because his master plan requires a lynch... for "IC" reasons. His post contained a lot of scum speculation on joth and - the person faust had been trying to frame - but I am snipping it out for brevity.

Vote: EFHW

* EFHW flips scum

* Next day faust and MiX have this little interaction:

Well that was disappointing. shraeye, PPS and pubby have played terribly.

It's always the town that are the most dissappointing.

What a strange thing for both of them to say. Shouldn't they be suspicious of us 3? Why are they acting like we're all town?

* More little interactions I found interesting:

Does someone who has flavor knowledge have any idea what having a headache might indicate?

Do you have it?

Asking for a friend.

* Even more interactions:

Yes, all the way to "if when the night falls" part

Please be careful with quoting mod-provided info, I don't want you modkilled. This one's probably fine because it's in the OP.

I double-checked that before posting it, don't worry.

Hey, townslip! Plz don't modkill me ash.

-

MiX claims he has the best role in the game, and that he absorbs powers of people that die. Hmmm... Does that sound like a Skitter ability? Or does that sound like the ability of the all-powerful Queen who's known in the show for enslaving and stealing peoples bodies?

There's absolutely nothing hinting towards Paint Face being a universal backup on the Falling Skies wiki. If anything, he'd be some type of investigative role. Or just a backup to Glooble's ability, but he claims that's not the case and neither him nor Glooble know about each other.

MiX's plan from the start was to copy someone's ability, then use this to "IC" himself. He said it in the beginning: he needs a lynch d1 to show he's town and is willing to lynch a townie to make it happen. But why? Why would a townie be so insistant on proving themself? To me, only scum plays that way.

To answer your final question:

Really? Suppose scum!me's plan was to start a wagon on a partner and then derail it once the deadline comes around... why on earth would I choose the partner that has announced VLA leading up to the deadline? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Because the leading wagon was Queen MiX, and the only other wagon was e, which EFHW had just jumped on. You did not expect the EFHW wagon to take off, you just hoped it would pull a few votes off of MiX and fail. In the process, you would have distanced your connection to EFHW. If you believed you had a good/reasonable case against EFHW you wouldn't have offered people personal thank you letters for joining you. Unfortunately the wagon worked and you panicked.

[Galzria]

"Her wagon was too easy, and nobody made any effort to derail it, ergo EFHW is town"

The whole point, if you're EFHW's partner, in building a wagon to then derail it, is to make everybody feel like EFHW must be town, something you attempted to do seamlessly.

But nobody was suspecting EFHW in the first place.

I was, although I hadn't posted about it. Fair, you couldn't know that however.

Either way, that's not really the point. I mean, hell, as a scum partner, isn't the best of times to start some bussing is when there isn't much suspicion already? That's the least likely to lead anywhere dangerous as a team, and can be pointed back to in the future if needed.

I mean, you can't exactly make a case on a partner and then go "Oh no guys, please don't vote with me! My case is horrible!". But you didn't exactly bother to really push and support your case either - instead you offered "Post-Game Thank You PM's" for coming on board.... which, boy, when you think about it, is a great starter piece for a future case against anybody that joined just for those PM's, no?

[faust]

"Her wagon was too easy, and nobody made any effort to derail it, ergo EFHW is town"

The whole point, if you're EFHW's partner, in building a wagon to then derail it, is to make everybody feel like EFHW must be town, something you attempted to do seamlessly.

But nobody was suspecting EFHW in the first place.

I was, although I hadn't posted about it. Fair, you couldn't know that however.

Either way, that's not really the point. I mean, hell, as a scum partner, isn't the best of times to start some bussing is when there isn't much suspicion already? That's the least likely to lead anywhere dangerous as a team, and can be pointed back to in the future if needed.

So was I or wasn't I trying to create an EFHW wagon? I feel like your narrative changes whenever it suits you.

[MiX]

@pubby, read any game I've played with faust: I buddy him regardless of alignment. I don't really need to disprove any other points in your theory, just this.

Great analysis, however, some of those points are still good, I'll try to isolate them next post.

[faust]

Here's my case: EFHW-faust-MiX scum team, with faust as the Monk and MiX as the Espheni Queen. I'm going to assume the Espheni Queen is super important and could lose scum the game if she dies. For that reason, scum will try hard to protect her, or rather, EFHW and faust will try hard to protect MiX.

Well, I am not sure how likely it is that we have an Espheni Queen mechanic here. I mean, it makes sense flavor-wise, but it seems like a singularly bad game design choice. Maybe ash found a way to make it work, but I would certainly shy away from something that could end the game on D1.

Both faust's and EFHW's early behavior was to prevent a MiX lynch. faust started the EFHW wagon to pull votes off of MiX, thinking there was no chance EFHW would actually die. When he realized the wagon was working, he panicked.

MiX on the other hand has played along with both of them, but in particular faust, by following his every command. It's worth looking at post-by-post.

At least that theory is more sensible than the "3D chess" stuff. It still has holes, like why would MiX tie himself to me so strongly when he does not want to be associated with the other scum?

Then a lot of this post is like more starting out with a narrative and trying to find things to support it rather than objective reading. Which, okay I guess, you're making a case, but a lot of things in there are big stretches, like EFHW asking for a vote count being an indication of anything.

* As MiX picks up more and more votes, faust realizes things are going south and that his Queen is on the verge of getting lynched. He asks his partner for help starting a new wagon so that MiX can be saved:

Hey EFHW, you seem to be scumreading Galzria, but you're not voting. Want to make a wagon?

This comment is key - it's a partner tell between the two. But EFHW denies him because it would make the two of them look bad.

* MiX tries to jump on EFHW just how he tried to jump on faust - two people that are defending him. He's nervous and trying to make himself look better by voting for his partners.

But EFHW needs some heat.

Vote: EFHW.

*  faust responds telling him not to:

Look at the vote count. This is not going anywhere unless you give some reason for why we should vote EFHW. And if you're not prepared to do that, please put your vote somewhere more useful.

So I want MiX to not vote EFHW but later do that exact thing myself?

* Only 2 minutes later, coach faust replies fast with this comment:

Can you specify whether you are a Skitter?

How did he realize "Leader" = "Skitter" so quickly?? Remember: faust claimed he was not familiar with the flavor. Did he really notice MiX's post, jump on the wiki, search, think about what to ask, and then ask it in 108 seconds? Or did he already know MiX's fake claim?? What's more likely here?

It's a good question to ask, but unfortunately your answer is not the right one.

* Soon the EFHW wagon picks up steam. faust panics and tries to abort:

Anyone want to start a wagon on joth? I can't right now, but seriously the guy is scummy and needs some heat. Let's make today EFHW vs joth. That would make me happy.

* faust becomes increasingly panicked and has several posts trying to convince others to abandon ship. But when he changes his vote, there's no case behind it. He doesn't talk about joth. It's just an empty post.

So I am desperately trying to derail the EFHW wagon, but I vote without a case? Also I vote joth and not Galzria who already had a perfectly fine wagon on him?

[faust]

But you didn't exactly bother to really push and support your case either - instead you offered "Post-Game Thank You PM's" for coming on board.... which, boy, when you think about it, is a great starter piece for a future case against anybody that joined just for those PM's, no?

No.

[faust]

If anything, participating in the more whismical aspects of gameplay is a towntell.

[Galzria]

But you didn't exactly bother to really push and support your case either - instead you offered "Post-Game Thank You PM's" for coming on board.... which, boy, when you think about it, is a great starter piece for a future case against anybody that joined just for those PM's, no?

No.

lol yeah, sure.

[A Drowned Kernel]

People seem to really like the bucket of me/Faust/ADK

I like it too, with a minor exception... I will vote for either of the other two, though. As is clear, so am I bussing a partner? Or am I the only baddie in the trio?

The other two have planted their vote on me and won’t move it.

Which is extremely scummy.

I'll switch to faust if you will