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Author Topic: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 250797 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1250 on: August 07, 2019, 05:33:01 pm »

I have already said too much. There is additional information which will probably be safe to reveal on day two, I think we should hold off lynching MiX until then.

is this additional information, in fact, safe to reveal now that it's Day 2?
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1251 on: August 07, 2019, 05:38:28 pm »

vote: Galzria

I don't think I like this EFHW wagon very much. I mostly joined it because I strongly townread faust right now and I trust his analysis. But I don't actually understand his reasoning. E has consistently defended MiX. So what? We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?

this post doesn't look great for Glooble
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1252 on: August 07, 2019, 05:41:00 pm »


EFHW:
1. No thanks to that wagon
2. I don't like the appeal to emotion
3.
Quote
Why EFHW, again?
I think that, regardless of MiX's alignment (but I'm pretty sure he's town), not all scum were voting for him. So I singled out people who weren't voting for him (EFHW, e, gkrieg, and maybe you want to include me if you disregard my early-game vote). I think there's scum here, I think e has been kind of townie and anyway the other two in the group are on the e wagon. I'm voting for EFHW because I think she has done distancing to the MiX wagon to appear townie rather than because she wanted to prevent his lynch.
Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:
We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?


same with shraeye. I know I'm townreading these two, but with EFHW VLA during her lynch, we should be looking at who tried to stop it.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1253 on: August 07, 2019, 05:42:03 pm »

Can I interest anyone else in the pingpongsam wagon? I think his pushing the MiX lynch in spite of the claim -- and his disingenuous characterization of the rest of the town as ICing MiX rather than merely delaying his lynch  -- add up to scum trying to push us into lynching either a PR or, more likely, a troublesome 3rd party.

vote: pingpongsam

and I guess prooobbbabbbblllyyy I need to admit that a third party observer who didn't know how townie I am would have to put me in that bucket also :D
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1254 on: August 07, 2019, 05:44:31 pm »

To everyone who is like "I'm not comfortable with the EFHW wagon" - what you really need to do is make a case on someone else. It's easy to criticize any case, but it's pretty pointless if you can't make a better one.

if we are going with the theory that faust started the EFHW wagon but didn't expect it to succeed, you can read this as a plea to someone else to divert it

also, ADK also jumped off the EFHW wagon when it got serious.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1255 on: August 07, 2019, 05:46:10 pm »

As should others, by the way. We've had this wagon sit around for quite a while and there was no effort whatsoever to start an alternative. This indicates that scum is overall pretty happy with the EFHW wagon.

And then of course, here is faust's big attempt to kill his own wagon on scum. (after jumping his vote to me to join ADK)
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1256 on: August 07, 2019, 05:47:20 pm »

Such an adversarial stance, faust. Now that I'm following your thought process I agree with you.
Sorry, I didn't intend for it to come across this way.

What are your feelings about joth by the way?

casual but despearate plea for more people to join the joth wagon, his antidote to the EFHW wagon
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1257 on: August 07, 2019, 05:48:16 pm »

Joth is town.

Carry on.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1258 on: August 07, 2019, 05:49:58 pm »

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1259 on: August 07, 2019, 05:50:16 pm »

e, if your only options were no lynch of EFHW, which would you pick?

I would prefer not to have to make that choice.

But in the end, I lynch EFHW when given that choice D1.

e tried real hard not to be the hammer
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1260 on: August 07, 2019, 05:50:36 pm »

e, if your only options were no lynch of EFHW, which would you pick?

What about you when given that choice?


Honestly can't decide. Leaning towards the lynch.

so did Glooble
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1261 on: August 07, 2019, 05:51:06 pm »

So is everyone derailing every wagon at the same time? This makes me want to lynch EFHW even more!

Rereading is hard, but I'll be here around deadline, so maybe I can move somewhere useful?

MiX is town
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1262 on: August 07, 2019, 05:51:53 pm »

EFHW would be okay with me, better than Joth, I think.

In a dream world we would take a closer look at ADK (who people refuse to talk about) or WCD (who people are extremely mixed on). And Space, but I always suspect Space for whatever reason.

And Awaclus, because Awaclus. Has he announced having less time? He seems quieter than usual, which is significant.

Eddie is town.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1263 on: August 07, 2019, 05:58:39 pm »

I re-read Galz, and I feel like he's both not been supportive of some stuff that seems very sensible to me (e.g. being critical of faust at #264, and also complaining about faust correcting Swan at #367), and also that he's generally more aware of the wagons and voting that maybe faust gave him credit for at the point faust discounted Galz from his lynchpool based on the intent to hammer MiX.. which means I think he really should be someone faust considered at the same time as he started up the EFHW wagon.

Vote: Galz

Space can be in the "tried to stop the EFHW lynch" club
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1264 on: August 07, 2019, 06:02:15 pm »

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1265 on: August 07, 2019, 06:09:41 pm »

Ok, I'm done rereading day 1. Here's a list of every vote:

82: Mix votes joth
97: ADK votes gkrieg
98: e votes ADK
99: faust votes ADK
117: MiX votes pubby
127: faust votes pubby
129: MiX unvotes pubby
130: Awaclus votes MiX
131: MiX votes Awaclus
132: pubby votes MiX

133: faust votes MiX
157: faust votes Swan
168: ADK votes Space
169: MiX votes Space
172: e votes pubby
203: MiX votes Awaclus
206: pubby votes Awaclus
216: joth votes Awaclus
218: Galz votes MiX
221: MiX votes Galzria
226: joth unvotes Awaclus
248: ADK votes MiX
249: WCD votes MiX
250: Glooble votes MiX
255: ADK votes WCD
263: faust votes Galzria
264: Galzria votes faust
269: pubby votes MiX
275: pps votes MiX
292: Space votes MiX
293: joth votes Space
313: Glooble unvotes MiX
314: ADK votes e
333: Glooble votes pps
338: MiX votes EFHW (first to do so)
346: MiX unvotes EFHW
348: gkrieg votes e
350: EFHW votes Galzria
353: Awaclus votes Galzria
357: Galzria votes Swan
371: joth votes MiX
375: Awaclus votes MiX
376: MiX votes Awaclus
384: Glooble votes MiX
390: e votes Galzria
397: e votes Space
405: ADK votes Galz
409: Galz votes e
410: pps votes e
413: ADK votes e
414: e votes ADK
417: MiX votes Galz
419: MiX votes Awaclus
432: e unvotes ADK
465: joth votes e
467: faust votes joth
469: Swan votes MiX
486: pps votes MiX
495: EFHW votes e
502: ADK votes MiX
503: Swan unvotes MiX
504: Galz votes Swan
526: Shraeye votes MiX
534: Joth votes Swan
544: MiX votes gkrieg
545: faust votes gkrieg
—the MiX claim—
550: faust votes joth
561: ADK unvotes MiX
564: faust votes EFHW
567: Awaclus votes e
589: EFHW unvotes e
594: Space unvotes MiX
605: Glooble votes EFHW
608: MiX votes EFHW
612: pps votes EFHW
621: EFHW votes Galzria
623: pubby unvotes MiX
632: ADK votes EFHW
635: joth votes PPS
636: pubby votes WCD
642: e votes. gkrieg
643: Galz votes EFHW
652: Glooble votes pubby
680: Glooble votes EFHW
691: joth votes EFHW
697: Glooble votes Galzria
702: faust votes joth
704: faust votes EFHW
711: shraeye votes for WCD
713: joth votes pps
719: pubby votes MiX
722: WCD votes EFHW
733: ADK votes joth
738: Swan votes EFHW
741: Awaclus votes EFHW
746: faust votes joth
747: joth votes EFHW
759: Eddie (gkrieg) votes e
812: pps votes faust
813: e votes Galz
816: e votes Swan
825: pubby votes Galzria
830: Mix votes joth
840: shraeye votes MiX
843: MiX votes EFHW
845: Space votes Galz
851: joth votes no lynch
852: joth votes faust
853: joth votes EFHW
856: Eddie votes Galz
858: pubby votes WCD
878: MiX votes Galz
884: MiX votes EFHW
885: MiX votes joth
887: Eddie votes joth
893: Space votes EFHW
894: Glooble votes EFHW
896: MiX votes EFHW
898: e hammers EFHW like a minute before deadline

I was going to turn this into some kind of analysis but man I've already spent a lot of time doing this and I gotta go do other things. Here's where I'm at after a reread:

1) still pretty into the faust 3D chess theory. Yes he started the EFHW wagon, but he tried way harder to stop it.
2) Space, Glooble, MiX, myself, and e all tried to stop it at various points but then in the end when the chips were down and we needed a lynch they/we got on board. I actually, ultimately, don't think you find scum here. It was too easy just to not show up, and then maybe the lynch doesn't happen. I guess we can throw Swan in that camp too.
3) Eddie, pubby, ADK, faust, these are the people who tried hardest to stop the wagon and ended off wagon.

vote: faust Faust is a very good player, but also a fancy player. Yesterday, he got too fancy. It happens.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1266 on: August 07, 2019, 06:12:00 pm »

338: MiX votes EFHW (first to do so)
346: MiX unvotes EFHW

This right here is indisputable evidence of joth's townieness, and anyone trying to say otherwise is scum.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1267 on: August 07, 2019, 06:12:37 pm »

shraeye also goes on the scumspect list. which reverses my earlier scumread.

Didds comes out of day 1 looking pristinely towny.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1268 on: August 07, 2019, 06:13:39 pm »

Oh, yeah, about faust, I get it, but his plan doesn't truly work: although you can say it distances himself from EFHW, it puts immense pressure on both of them after a D1 town flip.

shraeye also goes on the scumspect list. which reverses my earlier scumread.

So is he towny or scummy?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1269 on: August 07, 2019, 06:31:14 pm »

Some more flavor thoughts...

The 3 expected mafia roles are: The Queen, Scorch, and The Monk. The Queen is the all-powerful role (godfather?), while the other two are just henchmen. According to flavor, if the queen dies it's GG.

Seems like we can infer this:

- Whoever is playing the Queen will try their hardest to survive. They'll bus their henchmen if it makes them look towny.
- Whoever is playing the henchmen CANNOT risk starting a wagon on the queen. It's too risky.

Gonna look to see if this affected past voting at all.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1270 on: August 07, 2019, 06:32:45 pm »

I have already said too much. There is additional information which will probably be safe to reveal on day two, I think we should hold off lynching MiX until then.

is this additional information, in fact, safe to reveal now that it's Day 2?

I already did. It was my flavor name, and the fact that scum would be told it night 2.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1271 on: August 07, 2019, 06:33:25 pm »

Thanks for all that work joth.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1272 on: August 07, 2019, 06:52:36 pm »

338: MiX votes EFHW (first to do so)
346: MiX unvotes EFHW

This right here is indisputable evidence of joth's townieness, and anyone trying to say otherwise is scum.

I say otherwise.

Still think Joth is town, though.

Just not because of that.

At all.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1273 on: August 07, 2019, 06:55:29 pm »

Oh, yeah, about faust, I get it, but his plan doesn't truly work: although you can say it distances himself from EFHW, it puts immense pressure on both of them after a D1 town flip.

shraeye also goes on the scumspect list. which reverses my earlier scumread.

So is he towny or scummy?

Scummish
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1274 on: August 07, 2019, 07:27:05 pm »

338: MiX votes EFHW (first to do so)
346: MiX unvotes EFHW

This right here is indisputable evidence of joth's townieness, and anyone trying to say otherwise is scum.

I say otherwise.

Vobe: Eddie

Vote: faust, why is your power not just a way that scum spends the harnessed children?
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