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Author Topic: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 250501 times)

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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #975 on: August 03, 2019, 04:20:58 am »

So let’s say I have been told that the Espheni will be told my flavor name at the beginning of night two. Is there any reason for me not to share that info with town to level the playing field? Is there anything to be gained from it?

This is annoying...I only wanted to reveal day 3. Also my IC-ing plan failed this day, will have to be day 3.

MiX, are you purely, 100% town? Do you share my exact wincon in it’s entirety?

Yes, all the way to "if when the night falls" part

Hence, scum!e (heh).

Well Uncle wins the pun game. Rest of the posts incredibly scummy trying to paint everyone as super scummy for their wagon placement

I have done some flavor research during the night, and it seems at the end of the show someone kills the Espheni Queen and that causes all Espheni to die. So that's a pretty big plot point and it may very well be in this game. Not sure yet what kind of implications that would have, but it seemed interesting enough to share.

I bet it's the third-party's kill flavor, given they're most likely Dornia. IIRC it also kills humans? I forgot.

1) kind of inclined to believe Awaclus on their claim. Based on reference to my role mechanics, as well as if it was a time bomb effect or something - i don’t think Awaclus would of claimed.

2) it’s an rmm - but like if Ash posts Galz is IC... he is IC right?

3) no one really brought it up - but the no NK thing is weird. I was expecting multiple nks tbh.

1) reminds me of town!Awaclus from the previous RMM, 2) is a good point but lying here is bastard and 3) I didn't expect multiple kills night 1

Does someone who has flavor knowledge have any idea what having a headache might indicate?

Do you have it?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #976 on: August 03, 2019, 04:32:01 am »

Pubby was the most adamant late in the day that EFHW shouldn't be defaulted into dying, and tried to rally people away.

ADK is scum, which is significant. (I just feel it in my bones, also the off-wagon person I was most wary of pre-lynch. And I think off-wagon is the way to go today for obvious reasons.)

I could see scum hammering EFHW a lot more than I could see scum rallying under EFHW. Hence, scum!e (heh).

yeah, it would have been too easy for me to just not lynch and come back today with an excuse for why I didn't hammer as promised.  Trying to paint a D1 hammer on scum as scummy is a stretch.  D1 scum lynches are SUPER bad for the scum team.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #977 on: August 03, 2019, 04:33:45 am »

Day 1 Final Vote Count:

MiX (1): shraeye
EFHW (9): Galzria, WCD, Datswan, Awaclus, joth, Space, Glooble, MiX, 2.7
Galzria (1) EFHW
WCD (1): pubby
joth (3): ADK, faust, Uncle
faust (1): PPS

Not Voting (0):

With 16 alive, it took 9 to lynch.  Day 1 ended at 6:00 a.m. on July 31.

Back to my Datswan vote, I forgot that they were actually on wagon until Datswan mentioned it in response to my post.   Makes their EoD post much less scummy.

unvote

for now
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #978 on: August 03, 2019, 04:36:38 am »


I don't know if someone already did this, but let's break some of these premises.

I feel like I'm right about 11 kids = 11 players. See Ash's latest post, and the post when EFHW died. Dan Weaver is a major plot character - why would be left out of the game unless there are 11 kids filling the roster?

Most mods randomize flavor names: would you say the same if EFHW had a skitter as a fakeclaim? Also, given how many characters there are it would be awful to just make everyone into a kid.

11 Harnessed Kids
3 Espheni Scum (Queen, Scorch [EFHW], The Monk)
1 Skitter (Red Eye [Glooble])
1 Ally (me)

You expect only 1 Ally??? Then why did you reveal that? I do like how the harnessed kids' amount match EXACTLY what I would expect from this theory, but still, see what I said above.

If there are 2 skitters, then that means there are only 2 scum. But with 16 players? To me it seems more likely that there's 1 skitter and 3 scum. And if there's only 1 skitter, MiX has to go.

vote: MiX

If the ENTIRE TOWN is harnessed kids there is simply no way I would claim anything else other than "kid". Same for (almost) every scum.

PPE 2: I'm just assuming Uncle's thinking the safest placement for scum is to not be on the wagon but also be on the wagon, which hammering accomplishes.
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #979 on: August 03, 2019, 04:43:52 am »

Vote: Eddie
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #980 on: August 03, 2019, 04:45:31 am »

PPE 2: I'm just assuming Uncle's thinking the safest placement for scum is to not be on the wagon but also be on the wagon, which hammering accomplishes.

Yeah, still don't buy that scum comes in a minute before deadline to lynch their partner
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #981 on: August 03, 2019, 04:47:56 am »

PPE 2: I'm just assuming Uncle's thinking the safest placement for scum is to not be on the wagon but also be on the wagon, which hammering accomplishes.

Yeah, still don't buy that scum comes in a minute before deadline to lynch their partner

They can. I still think you're incredibly towny for it, but they can.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #982 on: August 03, 2019, 04:48:51 am »

Okay, I just realized there's a very important part of the votecount I need to analyze, so while I do that

Vote: Eddie

Vote: Eddie
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #983 on: August 03, 2019, 04:49:42 am »

Yes, all the way to "if when the night falls" part
Please be careful with quoting mod-provided info, I don't want you modkilled. This one's probably fine because it's in the OP.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #984 on: August 03, 2019, 04:50:22 am »

I feel like I'm right about 11 kids = 11 players. See Ash's latest post, and the post when EFHW died. Dan Weaver is a major plot character - why would be left out of the game unless there are 11 kids filling the roster?
 
See my first post:

Just a thought, probably important: The OP mentioned 11 harnessed kids in a game of 16. Two have claimed rebel skitter, which wouldn't be harnessed according to wiki flavor. That leaves 3 non-harnessed roles left, presumably all Espheni scum?

Considering what I know from my QT, the math doesn't add up.

I'm not joking around here. I think this is a huge lead.

Expected game setup:

11 Harnessed Kids
3 Espheni Scum (Queen, Scorch [EFHW], The Monk)
1 Skitter (Red Eye [Glooble])
1 Ally (me)

If there are 2 skitters, then that means there are only 2 scum. But with 16 players? To me it seems more likely that there's 1 skitter and 3 scum. And if there's only 1 skitter, MiX has to go.

vote: MiX

I think pubby's assessment of the setup is likely incorrectly and since it seems to be driving his vote on MiX I totally disagree with his vote
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #985 on: August 03, 2019, 04:50:43 am »

Does someone who has flavor knowledge have any idea what having a headache might indicate?

Do you have it?
Asking for a friend.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #986 on: August 03, 2019, 04:52:25 am »

Yes, all the way to "if when the night falls" part
Please be careful with quoting mod-provided info, I don't want you modkilled. This one's probably fine because it's in the OP.

I double-checked that before posting it, don't worry.

Does someone who has flavor knowledge have any idea what having a headache might indicate?

Do you have it?
Asking for a friend.

I bet it's a sign they're harnessed and probably a side effect of something happening to all overlords. At least that's what I learned from typing "headache" in the wiki...

Why did we kill the one person who knew the flavor?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #987 on: August 03, 2019, 04:53:40 am »

Yes, all the way to "if when the night falls" part
Please be careful with quoting mod-provided info, I don't want you modkilled. This one's probably fine because it's in the OP.

I double-checked that before posting it, don't worry.

Hey, townslip! Plz don't modkill me ash.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #988 on: August 03, 2019, 05:22:21 am »

I suppose my wild setup theory will be proven correct/incorrect when someone town dies and we look at what that does to the kid count.

unvote

@MiX: if you ignore the 11 kid number, I would expect the game to have multiple allies and multiple non-kid characters. But I would also expect the game to have kid players  - they're a big part of the show!

Part of my theory is based on the idea that it would be weird to have both player-kids and non-player-kids. Maybe that's bad logic.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #989 on: August 03, 2019, 05:29:12 am »

E is my pick for “if someone on wagon is scum who is it?”

I am treating all of the wagon crew as town for today though, just to simplify things.

I am curious who other people would choose out of the on wagon crew, if anyone.
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MiX

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #990 on: August 03, 2019, 05:57:16 am »

I suppose my wild setup theory will be proven correct/incorrect when someone town dies and we look at what that does to the kid count.

unvote

@MiX: if you ignore the 11 kid number, I would expect the game to have multiple allies and multiple non-kid characters. But I would also expect the game to have kid players  - they're a big part of the show!

Part of my theory is based on the idea that it would be weird to have both player-kids and non-player-kids. Maybe that's bad logic.

They're already a mod mechanic, I don't think they're flavor names. At least I hope so, taking a bit of Didds' concern here.

E is my pick for “if someone on wagon is scum who is it?”

I am treating all of the wagon crew as town for today though, just to simplify things.

I am curious who other people would choose out of the on wagon crew, if anyone.

I don't think everyone in the wagon is town. If I had to single out someone from it thats scummy, it would be Didds or Awaclus. And you, given your "intent to hammer".
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #991 on: August 03, 2019, 06:07:35 am »

Fantastic, it was all I ever dreamed of to be included in “the wagon crowd.”

Surely they won’t suspect me, now.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #992 on: August 03, 2019, 07:53:17 am »

Glooble - if Scum bussed EFHW, who is it and why?

I’m still more or less V/LA but I hate not answering direct questions so real quick- maybe WCD? This wagon was so tenuous it’s hard to see scum getting on it at the end, and Didds is the scummiest person on it at the beginning.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #993 on: August 03, 2019, 07:57:29 am »

Good morning and happy weekend, friends

EFHW is a baddy and Galz is town! That’s fabulous! I hate that the thread is locked immediately after the flip so the dances of celebration are never shared. Cha cha cha!

I think looking off wagon simplifies things for sure. ADK and Joth were both on early but ended up off, so they are pretty high on my list for being on then off. I’m still working on rereading the never-on folks

People who know the flavor....the kid that didn’t die but ran away. His harness is left behind. Is that significant? Can a harness be escaped?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #994 on: August 03, 2019, 07:59:10 am »

Good morning and happy weekend, friends

EFHW is a baddy and Galz is town! That’s fabulous! I hate that the thread is locked immediately after the flip so the dances of celebration are never shared. Cha cha cha!

I think looking off wagon simplifies things for sure. ADK and Joth were both on early but ended up off, so they are pretty high on my list for being on then off. I’m still working on rereading the never-on folks

People who know the flavor....the kid that didn’t die but ran away. His harness is left behind. Is that significant? Can a harness be escaped?

Scratch that, Joth ended up on. It’s early...I haven’t had coffee
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #995 on: August 03, 2019, 08:16:10 am »

I will say one more thing before I leave- the “Faust’s master plan” scenario is looking a lot more plausible to me today.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #996 on: August 03, 2019, 08:16:43 am »

Glooble - if Scum bussed EFHW, who is it and why?

I’m still more or less V/LA but I hate not answering direct questions so real quick- maybe WCD? This wagon was so tenuous it’s hard to see scum getting on it at the end, and Didds is the scummiest person on it at the beginning.

That would take nerves of steel from me! There were so many options to switch, especially when faust was pushing not-EFHW. I’m pretty sure that if I knew EFHW was my partner, I’d have been anywhere but there. I’m not a risky person, and usually choose the safe play. A bus like that...when the lynch wasn’t assured would be super risky. When I went to bed before the deadline I worried about lynching someone VLA, but not moving my vote at that point made the wagon more stable. So, however scummy you may have thought I was at the beginning, there isn’t a scum narrative that makes sense for me staying on and ensuring EFHW was lynched when there were lots of town alternatives the day before the lynch.

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #997 on: August 03, 2019, 10:18:59 am »

I will say one more thing before I leave- the “Faust’s master plan” scenario is looking a lot more plausible to me today.

faust's master plan revealed:

1. Bus a partner hard
2. Get cold feet
3. Look scummy leaving the wagon
4. ???
5. Profit
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #998 on: August 03, 2019, 10:21:03 am »

vote: faust seems pretty obvious
Does it? Why?

Maybe I'm being lazy, I'll have to go back and look at how and when you left the EFHW wagon.

Off wagon, faust and eddie seem the scummiest to me, although they're probably not both scum.

On wagon the votes leading up to the hammer don't strike me as scummy, as all of those people could have reasonably put their vote somewhere else. There might be scum in the early voters, who felt they couldn't jump off without looking suspicious. Didds does seem like the best bet there
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #999 on: August 03, 2019, 10:23:24 am »

I will say one more thing before I leave- the “Faust’s master plan” scenario is looking a lot more plausible to me today.

faust's master plan revealed:

1. Bus a partner hard
2. Get cold feet
3. Look scummy leaving the wagon
4. ???
5. Profit

I think that the argument is not that you "got cold feet" but that the plan was to start a wagon on a partner then defuse it, since early wagons rarely end up being the day's actual lynch.

Looking at the breakdown of events I'm actually starting to find it less plausible, though.

vote: eddie for now
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